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EYE-BALL Opinion – The Elephant in the Room – Gillard’s Police Investigation –
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 Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 27th June – After the Fact: Will Gillard escape? Gillards Epitaph: Criminal or Feminist hero – – 26th June – A Nation held to Ransom – – 26th Jun – Independent Rob Oakeshott Quits – – 24th June – The ALP Cocoon – – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – The Elephant in the Room – – Gillard’s Police Investigation – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 2nd July 2013 | |
| As a young Nation by World standards, and with a human heritage made up of ‘convict stock’, Australia’s development as a Nation has hinged on our own ability to distinguish right from wrong, to know what is moral and what is immoral, and to make choices that are beyond self-interest.
Our allegiance to the Commonwealth and our Colonial masters taught us much during WWI – even more during WWII. We came of age during Vietnam when fostering new allies in America, but still felt the need that we were ‘babes in the woods’ in a globe full of Nations with centuries of history we could only envy. Political corruption has been a part of our heritage ever since Federation – Corporate and most of how our business growth has fared has also not been without criminal involvement and intent, i.e. Bond, Skase, Spalvins, Elliot, Home a Court, Goward and many other self made men have all added to our colourful past and shown that ‘larrikin’, ‘ockerism’ combined with ‘white collar’ criminality has become our accepted way of life for success. Rivkin proved that justice is not equal – if you can afford a legal defense, the courts allow you to be treated differently, allow the perception of justice to escape the guilty, and where poverty and the lack of a good legal defense often allows the courts to dispense justice unfairly. As a Nation we are a long way from being complete and we still struggle with the ‘fair-go’ concept believing that petty untruths and crimes are not all that wrong. We just act out if we get caught. How many of us have traced our heritage back and discovered forbearer’s and their reasons for being sent or coming to Australia? The ‘Elephant’ in the room in recent years has been the Gillard AWU scandal. It has been an anchor around her credibility ever since she was elevated to Deputy PM. Mainstream media took the approach to leave it alone – even last night on the ABC’s “Q&A” – the audience did not ask a single question about whether the AWU police investigation was a factor in the reason the ALP caucus took the course of dumping Gillard. There were no question on whether the poll’s were a reflection of the ‘blog’ campaign to damage Gillard over her criminal past. Her dumping as Prime Minister now brings forward the opportunity for police investigators to interview Gillard as – ‘the person of interest’ – over her involvement in the AWU fraud – will it happen? In the six days since Rudd became PM – there has not been a story anywhere in MSM about the police investigation and how it might now proceed other then Mike Smith’s blog comment yesterday. Reports yesterday about Thompson’s court case and its expected hearings in September, can only hurt the ALP and remind voters of the other corruption scandals that are ongoing – i.e. the Obeid/MacDonald corruption scandal within NSW Labor and the corruption within the Unions, all to be exposed further in coming months if justice is to be served. All the stories written about the fall of Gillard in recent days, and during her tenure, her association with her criminal past has never been seen nor reported on as the reason for her demise. As a politician Gillard proved time and time again that she had the goods, that she could spar with the best of them – but for this author, it was her criminal past that prevented acceptance of her in the role as PM. Hell – if criminals are allowed to become Prime Minister, and spread themselves among our elected MP’s and Senators, it can only confirm an outsiders view we are still a Nation of convicts, and unable to elect and promote political leaders with a moral code beyond reproach. The continued tenure as MP’s of Slipper and Thompson, both facing serious fraud charges, and seen as criminals by most is proof enough that we allow and condone a different set of rules for politicians. They are allowed to hide in full view behind the protection of the Parliament – why is that? In relative recent times, the case of Senator Mal Colston comes to mind – a corrupt politician allowed to serve and avoid jail time because of a disclosed terminal illness. Was his parliamentary pension voided as a result of his actions? A brief extract from Wikipedia about Colston’s political career is posted below: linked here
What could the ‘income of the parents estates’ relate to – the income from a lump sum parliamentary pension payout perhaps … Colston escaped justice and remained on the taxpayers payroll until he died. His wife and now son were and are beneficiaries of his parliamentary pension. Australia’s apathy to criminal behaviour in our Political Leaders is our own legacy – it will only change when outrage forces a change. Gillards AWU fraud involvement is such an opportunity and the crime itself and its cover-up involves so many current and past political leaders, it would be the opportunity for our Leaders to draw a line and make an example. As a Nation we are owed this. We have to bring this to a head and force the Parliament into change in the way pre-selection of candidates are vetted and is conducted. Gillard owns her past and she now needs to be made accountable for it. Her conning of the ALP and the electorate into a – ‘I did nothing wrong’ belief has to be exposed in full view. Her retiring parliamentary pension entitlement of $200k a year, plus all the perks of being an ex-PM running to near $1 million a year, has to be reviewed if her criminality in the AWU fraud is proven. Not pursuing this investigation is not an option. The people who helped promote Gillard to the Leadership role also have a case to answer – they were also AWU Union heavyweights who knew of the fraud yet still promoted Gillard with the knowledge of her involvement. Bob Carr is involved, Graham Richardson, and many other Labor MP’s, past and present, all have knowledge and yet they stayed silent. Condoning a criminal past that had someone ‘struck-off’ in legal terms, and to allow them to be elected to serve as the Prime Minister, proves we have not come far from our convict heritage, and we still have a long way to go before we can call ourselves ‘decent and honest’ people. We are perhaps one of the most tolerant Nations in the world – we can accept anything that has fairness and does not impinge on the way each of us want to live our lives. Cross that line and deliver us something that has a smell about it, and you can kiss that tolerance goodbye for good. We are harsh judges when it comes to small things. The bigger picture stuff is beyond most and we just don’t care as a general rule. Touch or harm our kids, or try to shake us down and you’ll see a different side to our lay-back yobbo way of life. When it comes to Politics, everybody gets a fair go and you only get one chance, screw us over or tell us a lie and we don’t forgive. We are easily sold on a political message until someone else gives us a reason to doubt – very few care enough to get interested and follow Political Parties or their policies. We are gullible and rely on the media to keep us informed and that trust is always abused. We just don’t really care, we all know that Politicians lie and are corrupted, the very nature of how our democracy operates breeds deals and trade-offs and that always involves some sort of corruption. Until we can tell right and wrong when they stare us in the face and be prepared to risk personal safety to defend it, we are no better than our heritage … |
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EYE-BALL Opinion – After the Fact: Will Gillard escape? Gillards Epitaph: Criminal or Feminist hero –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 26th June – A Nation held to Ransom – – 26th Jun – Independent Rob Oakeshott Quits – – 24th June – The ALP Cocoon – – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – After the Fact: Will Gillard escape? – – Gillards epitaph: criminal or Feminist hero? – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 27th June 2013 | |
 The ballot result – 57-45 was convincing enough – but came far too late to resurrect true Labor supporters.
The end to end media coverage yesterday got it wrong most of the day in who would be victor, and it was not until Shorten made his statement of support for Rudd 30 minutes or so before the ballot that it became clear Rudd had the numbers. ABC’s Chris Ulman reported Shorten was trying to get his supporters to vote for Rudd, whilst he would remain faithful and vote for Gillard as a show of support. The truth if this is so is that Shorten has cooked himself as the instigator that pulled the trigger on two Prime Ministers just months away from an election – surely his star has faded … It was reported the Shorten faction gave Shorten a ultimatum – ‘if you want us to vote for Rudd it will only be after you declare publicly that you support Rudd’. That quite possible was an ultimatum that will crush Shorten’s own ambitions to be Leader. Shorten and Paul Howes are now due a stoush that could see the AWU splinter asunder … Today will be a day of the long knives and all done away from the prying eyes of the media and public. What happens now – Abbott’s game plan will be to attack Rudd basis the commentary offered up by ALP Ministers who dumped on him 18 months ago. This strategy will be a moving target on both sides – negative campaigns have a way of turning feral on those who engage in it. If poll momentum builds for Rudd pressure will go on Abbott and he may find himself in a Leadership question given how the Coalition held the table whilst Gillard remained PM. Indications are that the GG will support Rudd as PM and that will be tested on the floor this afternoon if Abbott wants. Rudd’s immediate task is to fill his Cabinet under his statement – ‘all is forgiven’ … Senior Ministers have already quit and already around 4 or 5 have stated they won’t be re-contesting the next election. There will be more revealed in coming days. Those already announced – Gillard, Emerson, Garrett, and Roxon. The morning shows are chock full of accolades for Gillard – and this is the truth about the shallowness of our media – nobody tells it like it is – it’s a soap opera and the key word is ‘entertainment’. This site has been committed to getting rid of ‘Gillard the criminal’ – and now that she is gone the focus will allow a more reasonable approach to the political agenda. Gillards fate with her criminal past will still be a focus but me thinks a deal has been done … and that is a greater injustice than Gillard having be promoted to serve as our PM. All the ‘wake’ commentary this morning is about Gillard’s status as the ‘first female PM’ and how will Australia respond to her being disposed of in the same fashion as she disposed of Rudd, her predecessor, and her successor … such irony … What will be interesting to see will be if the ‘blogland’ hatred of Gillard will transfer to Rudd … an era has finished and the next few months will decide so much about who we are and where we are headed as a Nation … The circus continues …. |
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EYE-BALL Opinion – A Nation held to Ransom – Gillard calls another spill and so the circus continues –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 26th Jun – Independent Rob Oakeshott Quits – – 24th June – The ALP Cocoon – – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – A Nation held to Ransom – – Gillard calls another spill and so the circus continues – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 26th June 2013 | |
 All day the News cycle has been on repeat over an impending Rudd challenge.This coverage is only ever repeated 2-3 times a year – Melbourne Cup and Footy grand finals. Even tonight’s State of Origin is pushed to the bleachers as the media become consumed by the possible, as opposed to the ponderable.
What will it mean if Rudd is successful – what can he hope to achieve or is there a third ‘dark-horse’ in the contest. Gillard has placed a condition on the spill – that the loser should immediately resign from politics. That has upped the anti … and Gillard has placed herself into the hands of the very people who promoted her – and a prison sentence s a possible reward if she is forced to comply with her ‘leave politics immediately’ condition. To take that stance and lay her career on the line for the second time would suggest Gillard still has a trick or two still up her sleeve …we’ll know in a few hours what her fate will be … As for Rudd – who cares … he will be PM of nothing and will become the slaughtered pig at a post election wake for the once powerful ALP. ALP MP’s and Senators are beholding to their Unions – Union polling among union members in recent weeks show a significant shift in ALP support if Gillard stays as PM. Under Rudd the poll results show an 18% increase in support. This is the only media game in town and it is all about nothing – desperate parliamentarian’s wanting the media cycle for what??? What is being served up as Governance of a Nation is an embarrassment and has been for all of Gillard’s term as PM. It now draws to a close in the face of what is possibly the worst political crisis this Nation has faced since the Whitlam dismissal. What is obvious is that the Leadership ego’s within the ALP, and the Union ‘kingmakers’ don’t blink in situations like this – the caucus members are the ‘blinkers’ … blokes to the right, sheila’s to the left type of stuff … Whatever the outcome tonight the ALP as a political force will have b een damaged forever. New party’s like based around Katter, Palmer, and Wikileaks founder Assange will carry a lot of support in the upcoming election. Not so much because they’ve earned it but because people are fed up with the way our democracy works … The 7:00pm ballot tonight will run into the State of Origin prelude and make tonight’s all important game lesser then it could be. Why do politicians think they are above the Nation’s interest – tonight of all nights – no NSW or QLD footy fan give a stuff about politics on a night like this … particularly when Gillard is already in a ‘slow-cooker’ and Rudd if he wins, will join her. |
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EYE-BALL Opinion – Independent Rob Oakeshott Quits – His media release confirms what we all suspected –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 24th June – The ALP Cocoon – – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – Independent Rob Oakeshott Quits – – His media release confirms what we all suspected – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 26th June 2013 | |
What came with that media statement was a link to all the funding Oakeshott’s electorate received in the three years of the Gillard Government. Oakeshott brags about the amount of funding for his electorate – some $1.2 billion in a total Regional spend of $10 billion – read his comment in part below:
What is Oakeshott saying here – that for all of the 150 Regional electorates – his 12% share of the total Regional spend was a fair trade for his support for the Gillard Government? If regional funding to each electorate was equal – then the percentage spend would be 0.67% – Oakeshott’s electorate of Lyne received 18 times the National average Regional spend if the funds had of been spend equally. How does a single electorate get such a large portion of the Regional spend – Oakeshott provides a complete listing of the Regional spend in his electorate via his website and can been be seen and read here – it is positively sickening to read this list and wonder why Oakeshott’s electorate was so blessed. A copy of this data has been preserved for when Oakeshott’s term expires and this site goes down. The question now arises – what was the deal done with Gillard to get the support of both Windsor and Oakeshott to form Government? The fact that Oakeshott is so brazenly boastful of his achievements in procuring this amount of funding fosters debate to support two arguments –
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EYE-BALL Opinion – The ALP Cocoon: all Grubs infected with self-interest agendas and trying to spin their own survival agendas –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal – it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – The ALP Cocoon – – all Grubs infected with self-interest agendas – – and trying to spin their own survival agendas – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 24th June 2013 | |
 Newspolls most recent results – [click image at right to enlarge in a new window] – spells another week of pain for the ALP.
What confounds us all yet very few political commentators, is how the ALP caucus remains loyal to a Leader hellbent in leading them to the worst federal election defeat in living memory. The latest Newspoll data has the ALP support back under 30, Gillard as the ‘Better PM’ is at 33 to Abbott’s 45, and Gillard’s satisfaction rating is at 28 compared with a ‘dissatisfaction’ rate of 68. These numbers were similar to the poll results during the Obeid revelations earlier this year. What they represent is a true understanding of the electorates angst at the ‘stunned’ and ‘frozen’ response by the ALP caucus to deal with the Gillard problem. Millions of words have been written by both sides of the media support mediums in the why’s, how’s, and what if’s – but only one mainstream publication and single journalist has pursued Gillard over her AWU scandal involvement and the police investigation currently under way. The Australian’s Hedley Thomas is a lone voice and that is the measure of where Australian journalism sits – we are some 80 days out from a Federal Election – the poll numbers above are a disaster and if Leadership change does not happen this week – the ALP as a political party of any note will shrink to a level not seen previously. All last week and over the weekend the continuing message from Gillard loyalists and RUDD haters was that Gillard will not stand down, and that RUDD would have to challenge. None in the ALP understand what this is doing to business confidence – it is a self-fulfilling prophecy as all Australians suffer under a Leadership quandary that can only be fixed from within. The ALP’s failure to deal with the Leadership issue highlight’s how our democracy structure fails us all.
The panel consisting of George Megalogenis, Jacqueline Maley and Dennis Atkins – representing ‘The Australian’ (News), ‘Courier Mail’ (News), and ‘SMH’ (Fairfax) offered little in real truth about Gillard and why the electorate have deserted the ALP. Dennis Atkins is a devout Gillard supporter – one of the few News journos to hold that view and a regular on Cassidy’s program for that reason. As journalists – the ‘Insiders’ panel continually do a disservice to their profession. Watching this program every week is like attending a weekly ALP wake and mulling over the ‘what went wrong’ and ‘what is going wrong’ scenarios. Wake up you idiots – your job is not to wallow in the self-pity of your political bias and the demise of the ALP, but to report the how and why the ALP came unstuck and why they don’t deserve to be there, or in the alternative, show how the Opposition would do a worse job. Objectively – where was the debate on Gillard’s involvement and ‘her ‘person of interest’ status in the Victorian police investigation into the AWU scandal? Why is that story a ‘no-go’ for all mainstream journalists? Cassidy is just one of the ‘grubs’ trying to spin a survival cocoon around the ALP’s Leadership issues. They talk about the ‘train-wreck’ scenario fast approaching, but not in any urgency befitting the disaster the Nation faces as a result? Stephen Conroy is another of these ‘grub’s who think they have spun themselves so as to be immuned and insulated from what is about to happen. He joined a chorus of Gillard wankers claiming Gillard is the only person to lead the ALP – he made a statement yesterday – linked here … claiming:
The EYE-BALL opinion of Conroy not good – he is the worst performer of any of the Gillard Ministers and does not understand that he is so far out of his depth in handling the NBN deal. Any claim the NBN deal is on track and within budget is just false – the media should be having a field day with Conroy over his handling of this ‘white elephant’ yet they hold fire … why???? This ‘grub’ has his own cocoon – he is responsible for the NBN failure – he has wasted $10’s billions on an NBN pipe dream that continues to fail on every forecast delivery estimates, on budget, and in the services promised to hooked up subscribers. The latest NBN asbestos scare has contractors walking away because they know the incoming Government will in all likelihood scrap the scheme – nobody respects Conroy’s position and even he has to know the party is almost over, yet he holds firm in his support for Gillard. His threat to not work in a Rudd Ministry is his cowardice and reflects his want to walk away from his creation … what a pissant – [meaning: a person or thing of no value or consequence; a despicable person or thing.] Peter Garret has said much the same in that he would not serve in a Rudd Ministry – again who would care!!! One has to ask why the Opposition have not asked during Question time whether the PM can confirm she is a person of interest in the AWU police investigation. Why do politicians treat the electorate with such contempt? Why do the media not ask the questions we all want answers to? In the last week – ALP MP’s have fronted the media selling their own version and scripted response to the ALP leadership speculation. Every one of them has been in support of Gillard. All the RUDD supporters have not offered a media comment … it is a message that is apparently told in secret … Ex ALP Media pundits like Latham and Richardson have offered up their opinions – Latham calling Rudd ‘evil’ and Richardson calling Gillard ‘toxic’ – they have no idea and are both feeding the media frenzy for a pay cheque earned through craven opinions. This ALP meltdown is all of their own making – “those who live by the sword, shall all die by the sword”. That sword is poised and none want to be the first to put their neck on the block – sources close to the MP’s who packed up their office weeks ago leaked the story to damage Gillard’s Leadership … this only confirms there are MP’s and senators within the ALP who want change but are not prepared to openly go against the Party power brokers. All the ALP caucus are penned like sheep in a Party Loyalty pledge to ensure they retain pre-selection and party funding … all a non-issue given the forecast poll results … what makes Leaders so weak … it can only be their allegiance to a Union under threat to not break ranks. This is Australian Labor politics – Union factions in control and dictating the terms of how their MP’s vote … no conscience vote involved, no constituency priority, no policy vote … just a blind loyalty that the Party will take care of them. The Nation has awoken to this panacea – it has realised that a vote for the ALP is a vote for continued Union corruption and for the likes of Howes and other ‘faceless men’ to dictate all ALP policy … they have had enough. Gillard is but a puppet to these men … her bravado in the face of the poll numbers is a recognition of how women in politics still dance to the tune of men pulling their strings. The question again has to be asked – how can these elected ALP MP’s and Senators continue to support Gillard who is the ‘person of interest’ in a Victorian and WA police investigation? Rest assure – all of caucus know of Gillard’s AWU involvement and there are those from within who despise her for what she is doing to the ALP brand. They are the ones undermining Gillard and trying to convince Gillard supporters to jump ship. To expose all that is happening behind closed doors in this leadership struggle is not important. Yes it feeds the media cycle and that is all that matters to all the ALP MP’s hoping they’ll get the Union tap to replace Gillard when the Union bosses decide to make their move. Why don’t the Gillard detractors expose themselves and cross the floor? How can the ALP hope to have any appeal within the electorate if they can’t sort out this Leadership wrangle? They would rather see the Party killed off rather than cut the cancer from within. This ALP ‘self-destruct’ scenario leaves our political landscape open to the Opposition and at least a decade long wilderness spell for the ALP … and no more than they deserve. You would have thought that after the NSW and QLD State election wipe outs – they would have responded ahead of the upcoming Federal election. The poll results reflect the Obeid , HSU and the AWU scandal and how Gillard has offered protection to the likes of Thompson and Slipper. Back to the ABC again – on ‘News 24’ this morning, coverage of Gillards speech to the economic forum was debated and only highlighted Gillards comments of the positive economic numbers this Government has delivered. The full text od her speech can be read here … it read in part –
The ‘News 24’ coverage of the speech was biased and irrelevant … there was no questions about the fall in the A$ since the budget, no question about the loss of jobs at Ford and other Industry shut owns … Gillard lives in her own cocoon and is an economic flamingo – all neck and no brain … Te speech represents ‘noise’ on a page – words written by someone given the message to write something befitting the audience Gillard was talking to … and on cue the audience clapped the speech … pathetic and symbolic of the caged tameness our society lives in. It has become the norm for most media commentary to focus of the ‘fluff’ rather than the substance and it sickens … any journalist worth reading or watching has to ask Gillard the question on the police investigation … the WA media jock who got himself sacked asked the wrong question – Ben Fordham was brave when he asked the question …and the lack of follow-up given the weakness exposed by Gillard demonstrates how the main stream media have alternative agendas. The open lack of respect shown toward Gillard from all sectors, business, electorate, the Opposition and from within her own party has Australia on its knees and pole-axed. Nothing can move forward until Gillard and the ALP Leadership issue is dealt with and that is still something the Cabinet and Ministry don’t want to deal with. For the whole of the term of Gillard’s minority Government, the business of Government has been about survival and number stacking to make sure it stays in office. Nothing can prevent the ALP demise – what Gillard has done to the ALP is the most sinister of betrayals … she is and has always been the puppet of the ‘king makers’ within the Unions – and in these desperate last days before ‘Rome’ burns … Gillard continues to be a rogue Leader and continues to damage Australia… To see how this damage continues, read Shane Dowling’s latest – ‘Kangaroo Court of Australia’ post on Judicial appointments, and how the appointment of the wife of Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) Secretary Dave Oliver to the Federal bench happened … linked here … well worth the read. |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL Opinion – Rudd or Gillard – evidence the ALP are Leaderless –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 17th Jun – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal – it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – Rudd or Gillard – – evidence the ALP are Leaderless – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 21st June 2013 | |
| The media prove yet again they never let a good story get in the way of logic or the truth.
The recent media ‘blood lust’ for a Leadership coup has everybody offering opinions based on stupidity rather then educated and logical opinion. The media have hours of time to fill in a daily cycle and they can’t do it – they have to re-run the same story with a different take to keep the public glued – if people thought about it for more than a minute they would realise its a ‘soap opera’ with the lowest quality rating. I offer a question – is the Leadership speculation news offered based on a factual and/or informed debate – or is it offered up as entertainment bordering on slander and intrigue with a hint of maybe … The recent speculation about Rudd assuming the Leadership role of the ALP suggests it will happen next Friday after the current session of Parliament. Rudd must know that the current Cabinet will walk away or not be loyal if he becomes Leader – there is not enough time before the Sept election for a new Ministry to adapt – he has to know that to lay a hand on the Leadership now is a poison chalice from which there will be no comeback. Two former senior Ministers are not re-contesting i.e. Ferguson and McClelland – his credibility in any new cabinet will ensure his poll numbers match that of Gillards within weeks if he took the reins …. By example – look at Mark Dreyfus efforts as Attorney General – he took over in February and he still can’t come to terms with what his role is – he is just a Gillard mouthpiece and about the dumbest AG we’ve had in a very long time. What would PM Rudd be the Prime Minister of – a ‘rabble’ who can’t stand one another and a Union faction war waiting to happen. If Gillard walked – it would open the gates on her and the AWU police investigation interest in her … she would be asked to front for an interview and that guarantees she won’t walk unless she cuts a deal. Who will offer her a deal – the Opposition – the police can’t – no she’s there until the voters throw her out … So – if the above is true – Rudd has declared he won’t challenge … that simple … and if he does go back on his statements – then his popularity will sink to Gillard levels. If caucus are worried about re-election polls then tough titties … they should have realised a long time ago the polls were accurate but they chose to support Gillard along with the Union’s Ludwig and Howes edict. Shorten is embroiled in the same AWU cover-up and his form is also suspect. If he became PM he knows his involvement in the AWU scandal will also be his Achilles heel … So if not RUDD, then who … it astounds me that none of the media commentary suggests the Deputy PM Wayne Swan is in the running – his own party writes him off as a neanderthal and that then requires a question as to why he is still Treasurer and not removed as Deputy PM. You look across the ALP Front Bench – not one is likely … there are plenty who think they are capable but who would vote for any of them? None have the ability to interface with the public – they all use the media in controlled environments to pass their message, and the media champion to that cause like lapdogs dry humping the MP’s leg … This ALP have to be laid bare – left bleeding and with all Union affiliations on the rack and spent if they are ever to find their roots again. Rudd can’t do that and neither can any Union man with aspirations. If RUDD becomes PM before the election then he never had the right to be PM in the first place … it would be just that dumb … |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.6 –
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 Latest GURU Posts:
– 31st May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 – – 29th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 – – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A continuing Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.6 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 19th June 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A continuing Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 14: Economic Trigger – Debt to GDP Ratios: The measure of any Nation’s prosperity can be read by their Debt to GDP ratios. The Australian ratio has been low by world standards for a long time. Australia’s “AAA” credit rating remains at the highest level – and there is a question in that statement – as other Nations fall down the rankings because their DEBT/GDP ratios rise all a result of the GFC Central Bank printing of money, and Australia’s ranking position improves despite the increased indebtedness, Australia’s ranking and avoidance independence from similar weakness is only a matter of time. We depend on exports, yet with the high cost to do business with Australia and largely because of our healthy economic position, it will be the same reasons why we trip and fall down the rankings. We have priced ourselves out of the market. Can you imagine any time soon where Australians will willingly take pay cuts, public servants accepting less remunerations and more productivity, where Unions turn militant against forced layoff’s and wage cuts? Look to the P.I.G.S. Nations to see what potentially lies ahead … avoiding this scenario will require some hard political decisions. Opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey gave an excellent picture in his Budget Reply address – linked here – as what may lie ahead. The vision was tempered because to tell it like it is would quash public confidence already down 7% since the Budget speech last week. The chart below gives reason for concerns about the Australian Debt/GDP growth. [Click to enlarge in a new window.]
It is easy to see the difference between ALP and Coalition economic policies. Since early 82 when Hawke assumed office – the next 30 years of Governance has seen 11 years of Conservatives, and the balance with Labor. The Chart above shows what happens under Labor Governments, and how Conservative Governments impose restraints to spending and budget deficits. Under Treasurer Swan, he has managed to do in five years what 27 years of previous Governments never did. Swan presides over the highest Debt/GDP ratios Australia have had in a generation, or for as long as records have been kept to make these comparisons. Wikipedia has this to say about Debt/GDP ratios – linked here.
Australia ranked 12th of economies in growth of Nominal GDP from 1980-90. In the period 1990-2000 they ranked 16th, and in the period 2000-10 they ranked 10th – source linked here. Australia’s debt levels are not critical when compared with many like type economies. The debate about the failed Swan ‘surplus budgets’ and the escalation in our debt levels through record deficits, is a judgement call on whether this is the time – i.e. in the aftermath GFC – to grow Debt/GDP ratios as the rest of the world also increases its Debt/GDP levels. For the Government to go on spending sprees that burn resources that may be needed to protect the economy when real hard times do visit our shores, the question becomes about the political agenda of those doing the spending, up against the real cost of protecting the economy. The OECD record of Debt/GDP growth of the OECD membership gives clear illustration of the globes worsening financial position. This is illustrated in the OECD Member Debt/GDP Chart at right. Since 2007 – the average growth in DEBT/GDP levels for OECD members has increased from 74% to 112%. In coming months and years, the lenders of monies who have facilitated this growth in debt will be demanding higher interest rates as risk of default increases. This average numbers applies to the OECD member group – Table of all OECD members and their Debt/GDP ratios provided below. [Click to enlarge in a new window.]
WIth Russian levels so low – the G8 average of 104% suggests that the other seven (7) Nations are in real trouble. This evidence proves what once was considered the world’s richest Nations are now fast approaching critical mass in economic terms. There is real change in economic power on the way. Mr Swan’s continued claims that our numbers are good in comparison with other OECD members is a false truth – our DEBT/GDP growth rate since the GFC is the highest growth % of any of the OECD Nations – i.e. 13.8% in 2008 to 28.9% in 2013. That is a 109% increase in DEBT ratio – and only beaten by Ireland [157%], Spain [110%], and equalled by Slovenia [109%]. That puts Australia in some pretty ordinary company … Mr Swan’s argument that the headline number of 29% is the envy of the rest of the world is true but has nothing to do with his economic management – John Howard can take credit for having such a low DEBT/GDP ration when the reins were handed over in 2007. Mr Swan cannot crow about any of Australia’s economic prosperity – in fact he has done his best to kill all industry and commerce with his high A$ and high Interest Rate policy. He may claim that the RBA set both these policies – well he had better think about appointing RBA Board Members who are not friends of the ALP if they ever get the chance again. Without China’s demand for our resources – no amount of spending by the Government would have saved the day. On this Economic Trigger alone – Swan and his Treasury and RBA get a rating of ‘gross’ incompetence. Defending the A$ rise after the sell off in early 2009 during the ‘resource trade’ exit would have given the Nation a 50% export revenue windfall for the next five years … that is worth A$trillions and whatever the RBA spend in defending the A$ would have be seen as chicken feed. This has been a complete misread of the economic fallout and demonstrates how ‘boofheads’ at the RBA and Treasury have no idea what they’re about in the new global marketplace. Focused on Inflation containment in a market where every other Nation wants inflation gives insight to the RBA’s ancient thinking. The ‘Australian Debt Clock’ has a history function for designing Charts – it is a great resource for image projection for the state of the Australian financial wellbeing. Chapter 15: Economic Trigger – Bond Yields and Official Cash Rates:
Then it comes to significant data – data that has an impact on real lives, cost of money – i.e. interest rates and currency hold sway over every other economic indicator. Interest Rates are always an electoral banner line. It’s where voters feel the impact of botched or healthy economic policies. The RBA are charged with monetary policy responsibility. This goes to CPI – i.e. Inflation targeting, and the only dark-age tool the RBA is prepared to use to manage the policy is Interest Rates. Budget Result, 10yr CGS, CPI, Debt on Issue, Debt/GDP ratio, and CPI v 10yr CGS spread: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The RBA are charged with monetary policy responsibility. This goes to CPI – i.e. Inflation targeting, and the only dark-age tool the RBA is prepared to use to manage the policy is Interest Rates. They don’t target currency – their biggest mistake, they only monitor all the other economic indicators as an adjunct to what they do with interest rates to punch holes in the economy if the pressures from the other indicators are of concern. Even the Banks challenge the RBA’s authority when they don’t match and lag on rate reductions, yet apply rate increases in full and as soon as possible. By example – in the last two years of official cash rate reductions this practice of delaying passing on rate reductions has been a media story. Banks are openly defying the RBA – it is almost as if the Banks are a protected species – and the RBA too scared to play the heavy hand. In the early stages of the GFC the Government gave the Banks ‘protected status’ and this gave the larger Banks a competitive edge over all the smaller players. In the aftermath of the 1987 crash Banks were also given special conditions in dealing with their eroding capital base and the continued writedowns they were carrying. If a Government was looking for a sure means to raise revenues – why would they try to tax the miners when the Banks make mega profits in all types of markets. A ‘Profits’ based Tax comment: Given the maniacal focus the Government has on ‘profit-based’ taxes – all aimed at the resources sector i.e. petroleum and mining – one ponders why the Banks are not also targeted. With collective annual profits from the NAB, ANZ, WBC and CBA over the last 3-4 years averaging $20-$25 billion per year – you would think that that would qualify them for a ‘super-profits’ tax. The Banks are profitable in any market, more so when economic times are buoyant. Since the GFC and after the Commonwealth gave then preferred Banker status with guarantees, Australian Banks continue to rank among the most profitable in the world. Targeting the high-risk mining sector is a lottery exercise for budget estimates on tax collected as the last year has proven. With the capacity to write down mining leases, infrastructure, and bring forward expenses into current years through tax minimisation schemes, the mining industry are not a sure bet profits based tax system. The Banks are. The four Banks mentioned are Australian owned, Australian based, surely a super tax on Bank profits is a more apt tax grab then targeting the resource sector. One has to think what the likes of Twiggy Forrest, Gina Rinehart, Clive Palmer, and other mining magnates did to draw the attention of the ALP with the super-based tax. The miners pay ‘royalties’ to the States and the ‘super-profits’ tax competes with State revenues and the royalties charges. It’s a direct conflict and the law courts should uphold the legitimacy of the MRRT – 10yr CGS v CPI v Debt/GDP ratio: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
This is a great chart to show the GFC impact on Australia’s Debt/GDP ratio, relative to historical trends with CPI and the 10 year Commonwealth Bond yields. Mr Swan’s comments about our core Debt/GDP levels being the envy of the World have face value. But to say further, if Mr Swan thinks he can brag about that being his or this ALP Government’s responsibility he lies and takes credit where credit is not due. Our own GFC crisis still awaits us – in recent times the FORD plant closures, the petroleum refinery closures, the HOLDEN troubles, the mining boom ending, te tourism industry in tatters, the manufacturing and retail industries – all are showing signs of fatigue with a labour force cost pushing jobs off-shore. The fall in the A$ since the budget will help, but it’ll take 18 months or so for it to impact on the economy if continues to head lower. 10yr and 2yr CGS v RBA Cash Rate: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The focus of the above Chart confirms the Interest rate targeting by the RBA has taken volatility out of the risk equation. This has been great for off-shore investors who see stability, and more importantly – still a 2-3% interest rate gap over interest rates in their own Nations. Since the GFC they have parked their funds here for safe haven and Treasurer Swan opens the doors and lets them pillage from Australian home owners still paying far too much in mortgage rates. This is illustrated further in the ‘Cash Rates’ of other Central Banks below: Global Central Bank Cash Rates: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
Again, this Chart does an excellent job of proving evidence in how the RBA has screwed all Australians – they would never look at it that way – but that is the reality as offshore investors take advantage of the interest rate gap that feeds to the high A$ – that also feeds to our ‘most expensive Nation to trade with status’ … Why is the differential there in the first place … in response the RBA will argue it is the premium that has always been there … but the chart reveals the gap during the lead up to the GFC in 2007 was a premium of 1%, during tha GFC crisis that gap blew out to 7% in 2008, and in more recent times has narrowed to a 2.5% gap. During the worst of the GFC – the Government spend like jack rabbits and the RBA boosted interest rates, before allowing them to fall in a gradual fashion – always keeping a 3% and more margin between the US and Australia’s official cash rates. Does the RBA think it better at economic management then the rest of the other G20 Finance Ministers … Perhaps the RBA can claim some fame for keeping inflation in check – but who cares in a market where the risk is more about deflation … talk about incompetence and focus on the wrong game … Australian Mortgage holders are still to this day paying 2-3% above those rates of our major Trading partners. In the period since the 2013-14 budget speech the A$ v US$ has shown weakness, the Treasury head has come out and forecast that their modeling was all wrong on so many levels. Even said that the new budget was already under pressure because some forecast resource prices have already come under pressure. Today we had Holden issue a statement that its workers would have to take pay cuts or lose their jobs. How do you think the Unions will respond to that. Tis is the dam wall crumbling and all under Swan’s ‘Jobs and Growth’ mantra … the idiocy of his failed understanding in how a high A$ combined with real high Interest rate policy settings have destroyed Australian industry will be revealed in coming years. The RBA won’t think like that because they are no longer Bankers – they are bureaucrats with one eye on their pensions and careers. The RBA’s charter and mandate needs an overhaul like many other choked Government Departments – i.e. Justice Department to name one. Chapter 16: Economic Trigger – Currency Value: There are many prongs to how ‘currency value’ impacts on every aspect of the economic cycle and triggers. It is the most important of all ‘triggers’. A$ v US$ since Float with Averages – [click image to enlarge in a new window]
The Chart above plots the Trade Weighted Index TWI, against the A$vUS$ since the 1983 float of the A$. There is a lot of detail and further explanations are offered below: Averages:
These numbers portray economic times and how the World has perceived the Aussie Battler and how our resources have impacted on our trade and current account numbers and all offset by the higher A$ value. To explain further: Resource contracts with our export Nations are domiciled in US$’s. So in raw terms a 100 million tonnes of ore exports in SU$ terms would return Australian exporters an A$ value dependent on the exchange rate, and the price of the ore. With the A$ at the long-term average of A$0.7557, that would equate to A$ receipts of 133.2 million. The same trade with the A$ at its post GFC average of $1.0182 returns the exported A$98.2 million. That is a 26% reduced revenue if the Iron Ore price in US$ terms stayed constant. But we know that is does not – see link here for 5yr monthly price of Iron Ore in SU$’s. From this example one can see that as ore, coal, agriculture and the many more commodities prices fluctuate, the revenue to Australian produces gyrates on two fronts – currency value and commodity value. Commodity prices are set by supply and demand and since the GFC, China holds pride of place – all roads lead to China as a trading partner – struggling economies want China’s business. That gives China a wedge and advantage on so many levels. It is not hard to imagine what China can do with this position – it is not beyond the imagination to think that China could pull orders for Iron Ore [i.e. stop buying] around contract renewals to allow the price to fall and have miners scramble to renew contracts against the new miners wanting to climb the ladder for Chinese business. This is the new ‘WAR’ – it’s a global war on trade and the human factor is ‘labour costs’. So as Australia with a fixed wage system and Unions to get involved when seen to be needed, current wage costs in Australia will see this Nation’s competitiveness erode as other Nations usurp our export markets with cheaper goods. This should be the only thing the RBA should be focused with – and if they don’t see it as important, then the Treasurer and the Government who set policy should have had this matter on their radar for many years and have implemented measures to weaken the A$ … obviously it has not happened – and why is that? Only one answer – our Leaders do not understand finance, nor what it is they do not understand about how markets work. Under Gillard the A$ v US$ has maintained its lofty levels without any language since 2008 until a few months ago about how the A$ is not the reason for revenue write-downs. See Chart below to see the A$ performance during Rudd and Swan’s, and Gillard’s and Swan’s tenures … A$ v S$ during GFC period and to current: [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The dump in late 2008 and recovery from early 2009 proves that the decision makers had no idea what was afoot at the time. Currency Management has never been a priority of this Government or the RBA. This is absolute ‘hillbilly’ economic management. In the toxic investment environment prevailing world-wide during and immediately after the GFC – off-shore investors had to find a safe haven for their funds. Their criteria needed stability of scales, leadership, relatively stable economy, a economic status that was tapped into the world economy, and most importantly, an opportunity to secure a return on that investment via interest rates, and/or a currency that would not in all likelihood depreciate or erode capital. There was only one option – Australia. As China’s demand for resources were not affected by the GFC – the selloff in the A$ in and during the GFC worst days gave a million reasons to reverse that sell order – the currency was now below $0.50c, half its value a few months earlier. To add to the gravy ride, the RBA mover interest rates up against what every other Nation was doing. Stupid right … but invite these investors we did and they came in with their $100’s billions and the RBA gave them assurances talking up the interest rates saying that they had to keep them high for fear of inflation pressures. What a cock-suck … Blind dumb idiots in a panic did exactly what the carpet baggers of the world wanted. And here we are now … raped and sucked dry with a siphon hose stuck right up our arse allowing the wealth to be sucked out of Australia without any ‘risk’ premium involved. Currency value is the be all and end all in the new global trade wars … high currency means expensive labour costs from an off-shore perspective. It is an instant kill shot to industry and the growth in export markets. It encourages imports which in turn leads to job losses and internal economic slow down. The opposite to all things Swan is so proud to advocate. His ‘jobs and growth’ speeches are famous for the hollowness sound they echo. Added to Swans stupidity is that of the RBA’s inflation targeting policy, and the Treasury modelling he uses to frame his budgets, all still focused on things that mattered 20 years ago – this Administration’s economic management makes George Bush look pretty good. Swan will realise in his golden years what it is that he did for Australia – one wonders will that make him humble … In the next Chapter the ‘Terms of Trade’ and ‘Current Account’ Economic Triggers are examined. |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.
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EYE-BALL Opinion – Our Leadership Betrayal – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected.
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 11th June – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching – – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal – it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – Our Leadership Betrayal – – Entitlement should be earned, not assumed nor expected – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 17th June 2013 | |
| If you are of like mind then you understand when I say – “I’ve had enough and I’m not going to take it anymore.”
This Peter Finch line out of the movie “Network” resonated then as it has done through the last 40 odd years – we are all so fed up with the character politics – today’s Question Time was such a waste of time, a pantomime before the real show plays itself out next week when Gillard walks the plank yet again … Give us leadership where character is not in question every single moment of every day … who among the 150 MP’s and 80 Senators has character enough and to be sitting in the hallowed halls of our Parliament? Swap those serving on the Government back benchers, combined with the Independents with those sitting on the front bench and I swear we would have better Government – these Ministers pretend at politics, they pretend to know how to run a country … Why is it that we are forced to read and watch the drip-fed news stories fed to the media like scraps into a hungry lions cage? Swan delivered a budget a month ago and it is already in tatters – news on how the budget now lies in tatters would be news – Recent days the media cycle is not more than speculation and expert commentary about Gillard’s poll numbers and whether Rudd will again become leader … who cares … it’s all speculation and feeds the ego’s of those it is about … Rudd would still be the PM of what … Christopher Pyne said it this morning – ‘the Government would still be a rabble’ … There is only one explanation – we are conditioned and forced fed this tripe under the guise that politics actually means something or that we care – it is all recycled tripe and we’re forced to swallow it as important news … Why do we tolerate the mediocrity in our Leadership – why do politicians stand in front of the media thinking we want to hear what they have to say – The public are only getting the edited and rehearsed value of comments pitched so as to win your vote – nothing said has truth or substance … Swan in Question Time today with his ‘jobs’ reference … does he ever watch himself in replay .. I honestly have bile in my mouth whenever Gillard speaks, same with Swan and that Shorten and Bradbury are what squirms in a blitz feast of dung beetles … I’m so over the AWU scandal – those who believe it will not be swayed, and those who don’t believe will only come to terms with the truth when Gillard is charged … how can you convince those who don’t have an open mind … Barry Cassidy – a journalist of some repute in a time long ago is one such person … his ALP DNA gets in the way of accepting truth over belief … how could his beloved ALP be guilty of the AWU allegations being made … this was once a serious journalist and now a joke and last Sunday’s ‘Insiders’ can attest to that. Who dictates the political and media agenda – editors, owners, journalist’s chasing the story – or politicians trying to swing public opinion – they are all doing it and Australia are fed up with treatment that they are idiots. Hell – most politicians living in their fishbowl have no idea what is happening out there in the electorate. The ‘noise’ is deafening and the want to have it gone … stopped … shut down is fierce. Gillard sexist and gender politics has this Nation on its knees … I just don’t want to hear her ever again … Swan’s message is akin to a baked cake tin of sewerage slosh, Emerson is the homeless beggar so wanting Julia to give him another go … Shorten is the dickless imp willing to stump shag anything strange … Conroy the ‘court-jester’ not because he has wit, but because he is just that dumb and so easy to make fun of … and so it would go for most of the Cabinet … there is not one among them worthy of the position they hold … Do you know why this is true – because they all know Gillard is a criminal and they refuse to denounce her … that makes them less that moral … and that goes for both sides … Why has the Opposition not asked Gillard in the House if she is under Police investigation – there is nothing sleazy about the truth … Hedley Thomas in his story today – linked here – again confirms how real the Gillard police investigation is – yet not one TV station is reporting the story in any depth or meaningful way that presents the truth of what the investigation means … the ALP are happy to run Gillard as their candidate for PM whilst she is under police investigation … if that is not news and worthy of comment by so called mainstream journalists … they should all hang their heads in shame … that includes Oakes and the like … There is political censorship involved – even the Opposition are reluctant to comment or raise the matter in press interviews. Australian’s need to throw some eggs at politicians standing in a media horde – no matter who you hit the splatter will carry the message. Given the scant exposure given to the two sandwich’s thrown in Gillard’s direction, the hypocrisy is obvious when you compare how the 13 yo girl in the ‘Goodes’ ape comment was exposed and how she was hung out to dry … It is so hard to come up with a different perspective when writing about this crap … dare it be said – making her go away would make the world such a better place … in fact – who has earned the right to remain in Parliament … they all believe in their entitlement … but none have shown worthiness … |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story. Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL Opinion – Julian Assange – An Interview worth Watching –
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 6th Jun – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant – – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May – Just Stunningly Beautiful – – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal – it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – Julian Assange – – An Interview worth Watching – | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 11th June 2013 | |
 Overnight ABCs Lateline interviewed Julian Assange – Emma Alberici did her best to keep Assange in his exile box but Assange came across as creditable, and as an alternative in the upcoming election.
His frank summary of Bob Carr and the Foreign Ministry as pertains to his own experience regarding Consular assistance is an oblique exposure contrary to the political message Bob Carr would have us all believe. The transcript of the Interview is pasted below – or can be watched via this ‘Lateline’ Web Page link.
Links to Wikileaks Party:
This is a newly discovered news source and to be honest refreshingly non-mainstream. The next few days will be spend pouring over the information on-line and whilst the first response is to believe Assange has something to offer, cooler heads dictate that a few days of research is needed before any recommendations can be made. It’s has the appearance of independence and if Assange can be believed in the comments he made on ‘Lateline’ last night – poll results indicate his party will be a force in the upcoming election. The news breaking story about the USA CIA operative Edward Snowden leaking information about espionage services tapping into private data and distributing it around the world, including to Australian Spy agencies the AFP, and ASIO, will become an issue in the upcoming election. Bob Carr will find himself isolated on this issue because of his close ties to the USA – and his and Gillard’s predisposition towards Assange. Australian Media concerns to the ‘Whistleblower’ legislation – [link to the Public Interest Disclosure (Whistleblower Protection) Bill 2012] – can be read via this link. This is important legislation given where the Edward Snowden story has exposed what the CIA have done for years. If Australian agencies have received sensitive information via the illegally obtained CIA database – then Laws have been broken. What can one do when a Government breaks its own laws – change the Legislation to allow the past indiscretions to become legal? Perhaps it is time to get someone into our Parliamentary process who has an untainted view of what public service and democracy truly means. To hell with the Party Politics being played by the Coalition and the ALP – making Government accountable sounds good for the moment. Thanks Emma Alberici – it appeared your intention was to expose Assange – but he trumped you and gave Australia a real look at someone who has an agenda and that just might be a good thing for Australia. |
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Zombies –
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Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
– 1st June – Canberra – and black holes – -30th May – What is an adequate Contrition? – – 24th May – Simplex – – 19th May – The Tears of a Prime Minister – – 24th Mar – An Example of bureaucracy gone mad – – 10th Mar = The Carbon Tax – Post Election … – 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop 28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View – 6th Feb – Corruption – 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination – – 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism – – 12th Nov – Hegemony – 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: – Zombies – | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 5th June 2013 | |
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The start of the trial of Bradley Manning brings up many thoughts on many issues issues. Wikileaks, state secrets, dishonesty within the military and their government counterparts. In Tuesday’s morning bulletins Denise Brailey was featured with the typical denials from ASIC. See http://bfcsa.com.au/index.php/blogger/listings/deniseb Ms Brailey is currently posting on her website what she claims to be fraudulent loan application forms altered by brokers after they had been signed by applicants. Peter Kell, Deputy Chair of ASIC first said that “there was insufficient evidence”, and then wants to know why “Ms Brailey hasn’t referred the evidence to ASIC earlier”. For more complete and accurate detail please refer to Ms Brailey blogsite. That type of head in sand denial by Kell is so typical. If the banks are writing imprudent loans we could face another sub-prime crisis, this time centred in Australia. The only attitude is to investigate, but instead as always don’t listen but rather shoot the messenger. The old cynical classic joke “Hi, I am from the government, I am here to help you.” Other examples of current head in the sand include;
I could go on with the State Ombudsman, the Telecommunications and Information Ombudsman, the Office of State Revenue, The Legal Services Commissioner, The Dept of Fair Trading, The Office of Fair Work Australia, The Human Rights Commission, and on, and on.
I will personally settle for brain dead, or having no will of your own. Here is Peter Kell’s biography (source ASIC website)
In my most recent post I touched on this, I wrote:
Try this as an example. Try to get an affidavit signed. An Affidavit is administered under both State and Federal Attorney General’s in my case an officer of the Supreme Court of NSW. So I go to the local Magistrates Court. There are signs up everywhere, a volunteer JP service is available at specific times. I take a number and wait and when called I directly ask at the Office of the Registrar if they will witness a document. Answer No! Who are you, a court officer, empowered under the oaths act, what are you, lazy. We are too busy to offer this service. Go next door, to the police station. Hi How long is it. 7 pages with 3 oaths and 4 initials. Look I have real policing work to do. Who are you? “A police Constable”. What are you? “too busy”. Go to the chemist. Hi there I was hoping to get this document witnessed. “Sorry I can’t do it.” When will a chemist be available? “I don’t know.” Who are you” “A chemist employee.” “What are you?” “Not empowered to witness oaths”. Same cuts at a bank or a post office. No! No JP available. A Bank Manager will do, sorry we don’t have managers any more, we have senior Customer Service Officials. Strange part is both my wife and I can witness oaths, but not for one another. It is highly likely your neighbours are able to administer oaths, but you don’t want them to know your business. At any time a District Court is open there are volunteers available to offer a JP service. One day I presented at the Goulbourn St Family Law Court and “Hi there – I was hoping to get this document witnessed”. I was told to walk 2 blocks to the District Court where there are always volunteer JP’s while the court is open. On another occasion at the Queens Square Federal Court I was asked to wait 20 minutes while a JP became available. “Can’t any court official do this?” well – maybe – but please wait. Fact -Any Public Servant of 2 years continuous service can witness a document. So Bradley Manning has been in custody 3 years, awaiting trial, he has pleaded guilty to 9 of the 22 charges, yet the witch hunt goes on, and on. The press tells me, that while guilty he is a humanist. He has actually only tried to highlight US Military breaches of Human Rights in Iraq. I am no expert. Either at law or on Human rights, or in several other professional areas. However I have a piqued sense of social justice, and great capacity to aspire to a more just and interconnected world. A world of less injustice and suffering. If there was a hat being passed around to save either Bradley Manning or Craig Thomson I would be much more likely to donate to Bradley Manning. This brings me to my friends at Department of Immigration and Citizenship. Last Saturday I was shown an E mail from DIAC marked “For-Official-Use-Only”. It was in tiny type [6.5pt sans serif where the other content was in 11pt Calibri] and in red. My natural reaction was “what the heck does that mean?” If I was to publish that communication might I find myself in hot water over some type of sedition? The document contains no state secrets it is simply opinion and process. Security classifications are just simply a tool of these zombies. So as I watch the debate on visas unfold I wonder just how rancid is the Department of Immigration and Citizenship. My mind conjures up pictures of the Migration Agents Registration Authority (MARA) and all the hanky panky that they could be up to. If you have never heard of them see https://www.mara.gov.au/ They are every bit as clandestine as the AFP or ASIO/ASIA. You might discover in the first part of the URL [I need to retype as it is locked] DEPARTMENT OF IMMIGRATION ANDCITIZENSHIP [AU] {sic}so what do they do? Issue 457 visas? Take bribes? License those abusing immigration processes? Gina Rinehart can obtain all the 457 visas she wants at the mine approval process and when she doesn’t get her way buy newspapers and TV stations. The big mining companies can hold the economy to ransom by mothballing expansion plans for all types of reasons. But how do the smaller abusers get away with their tripe? Where do you start to even investigate? You rely upon whistleblowers. The likes of Bradley Manning or Julian Assange and maybe now and then programmes like ‘4 Corners’. My only experience with ‘4 Corners’ is when you send them a program suggestion they state, and I quote “Unfortunately this not a topic which Four Corners is currently looking to pursue in terms of a story.” Is that also head in the sand? Around about Easter this year amongst a group of associates who are predominantly from the education sector, one stated “the university system has survived a Liberal government in the past”. The conversation moved on saying that they may well vote for Julian Assange in the upper house. Some remained silent. Upper house voting intentions is the new political interest in the tea rooms. Has the ABC considered how they will survive a coalition government? Their ALP biased reporting has become water off a ducks back. What is the strategy phase post election, particularly when the new government is having a honeymoon? Maybe ‘4 Corners’ will then pursue such a story! After all they are by virtue of funding an extension of the public service. Believing in sanity is itself insanity? Post Script In naming this article considerable thought was given to naming this piece earth worms. Earth worms have no discerned brain or taste. In conclusion the mythical and voodoo concept of a zombie was considered more apt. Earth worms are quite useful in that they return organic matter to soil nutrients. They are very useful as bait when fishing, and birds of prey require them in their food chain. For further enlightenment I add a small poem I have collected along the way.
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Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou. Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 –
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| Latest GURU Posts:
– 29th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 – – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 12: Economic Trigger – Unemployment:
The Table at right – [Click on Table to open and enlarge in a web browser window.] reproduces the ‘Unemployment’ numbers forecast in successive budgets since 2007-08. The ‘actuals’ result versus the forward estimates make for some interesting assumptions. For example the 2008 forecast for 2009-10 was for 8.25 % unemployment ton the back of the GFC crisis. In 2009-10 the forecasts for 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13 were also high relative to actuals and again were in fear of the GFC impact. These high forecasts meant the budget expenditures had high welfare numbers that were never needed as ‘actuals’ proved. In fact the savings in the ‘Unemployment’ expenditures should have been a reason to celebrate. The 2009-10 forecast of 8.25% against an ‘actual’ of 5.2% measures an error factor of 3.05% or 37%. The budget savings on this number from a 10.971 million employed workforce – [see Labour Force Table overleaf] would be roughly 350,000 jobs. With a fortnightly Newstart allowance payment in 2010 of near $550 at the time, the budget savings equates to near $5 billion. The budget deficit in 2009-10 was $56 billion against a 2008-09 forecast of a $22.4 billion surplus. The $5 billion windfall savings makes the deficit look even worse. Similar errors were made for the 2009 forecasts for 2011-12 unemployment numbers – i.e. forecast was for 7.5% against actuals of 5.1%. Two things – the GFC was an easy excuse to lift unemployment forecasts, and the resultant savings from reduced actuals were never used to increase the forecast surplus – i.e. the $22.4 billion forecast became a $56 billion deficit. What is $5 billion in Unemployment savings going to do against a Government with a Budget deficit some 400% off target. The flat line context in the forward estimates for Unemployment numbers across the 2012 and 2013 budget estimates will look challenging as job losses across the Nation continue to mount over plant closures, and resource industry wind-backs. And all as a direct result of the continued high A$ impact on competitiveness in manufacturing and other export related industries since before the GFC. Labour Force: The ABS produces the Labour Force numbers monthly and based on ‘sampling’, after adjusting for seasonal factors and a six-year smooth average. It’s a ‘bullshit’ number pumped full of bureaucracy steroids to give the best possible numbers. For example – when Swan and his fellow Ministers brag about 971,000 jobs created, what he should say is that there have been 493,000 full-time jobs and 478,000 part-time jobs. [See Table Below: Click to enlarge in a new window.]
The liar illusion Mr Swan promotes along with all his Parliamentary colleagues is the economic prosperity we all enjoy because this Government has created this number of jobs … The reality in the Table of Labour Force data above is that average monthly hours worked has been falling since the early 2000’s – down from 145.3 to 140.4 hours per month in Mr Swan’s term as Treasurer. Also, every December/January some 200,000 school leavers begin to look for work. Come mid-January and if they have not found work they join the ranks of the un-employed. This number is ‘smoothed’ by the season adjustments and the six-year average – i.e. every new month or each year a number from six years ago drops off … it is hardly a true indication of real un-employment in the now time frame … People on un-employment who are attending courses are also treated differently, as are long-term unemployed … in fact the ‘un-employment’ number could not be more ‘doctored’, and when forecasting the number for budgetary purposes economic forecasts are about the best guess any forecaster can employ. The job losses in the last 3-4 years because of the High A$ cannot be measured. Ford sacked 1200 employees a week ago – that was currency related – all the tourism workers now gone and working in mines are somewhere else – a 40 year industry build on Hogan’s ‘throw a shrimp on the barbie’ is in trouble. Australia produced raw materials, the resources are shipped offshore for ‘value-added’ improvements, and then we import it back here as ‘trinkets’ from China that in six month’s time is on a scrap heap somewhere. What are Australia’s strategic fuel reserves – information to hand suggest we have about a fortnight’s fuel supply and with refiners shutting down operations because of the High A$ – what happens if we’re held to ransom by a trading partner supplying us with refined fuel or oil … One of the major failings of all Governments in the past has been in identifying essential industry and business to Australia’s needs, and making sure those industries serve Australia’s interests. Turning iron ore into steel for example – we’ve shut down most of our steel mills because of the high A$ and cheaper offshore labour costs. We’ve also exported the emissions associated with the industry to offshore Nations with less than ‘best practices’ for the environment. We still need the steel and when we buy it back at a multiple of the price our miners sold it for – that difference equals Australian jobs. If world commerce carries on and turns the way it is – eventually we’ll be depended for everything … and what will that do to jobs – the only growth industry will be aged care and euthanasia casualties – i.e. mortuary’s. Chapter 13: Economic Trigger – Real and Nominal GDP Growth: Addition Research: link to previous GDP comments in Part 2.3
The name GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and is an index measured formula that looks like this –
The formula is simple, when a Government increases its own budget spending, GDP growth will reflect that spending. When Mr Swan brags about Australia’s economic climb to 12th on the list of ‘nominal’ GDP rankings – his spend over the past years via massive deficits has fed to that growth. The GDP growth is not natural but Government induced and all for a cause that is beyond sinister when Swan brags about the same growth factor because of good economic management.
Look at the last four years in the Chart above – it shows the impact of large deficits on GDP growth [2009-2012] – as compared with 30 years of previous GDP numbers: [click chart to enlarge in a new window.] The Swan growth years are manufactured, and knowing what Australian’s now owe – can we ask Mr Swan to give us his reasons to borrow the way he has against the consistently promised budget surpluses? To make the analogy – the 2012 deficit was $47 billion, and the deficit for 2013 is now forecast at $20 billion. Does the fall in GDP from actual 3.5% in 2012, to the presumptive growth of 2.6% in 2013 have a connection with the reduced budget deficit? Definitely – the past years Government expenditure as a factor of the GDP number has averaged A$7.6 billion since 1980 – [i.e. the Government spend as $ factor of GDP]
Another way to look at Government spending as an impact on GDP is to divide the Government Expenditure into the GDP number – this yields a GDP ratio for every Government dollar spent. In the last four years the GDP impact on Government spend is at its lowest level ever. The ratio of the Swan years is A$4.1 billion. See Chart above: [click to enlarge in a new window] – that means Swan’s spend is getting less bang for the buck spent. In 1980 under Fraser every A$ billion Government spend yielded $16+ billion of GDP growth. In the last four years it is near $4 billion – meaning spending power by Government in the economy is a quarter what it was 30 years ago. This can be seen is a good thing – it highlights the diversity of the economy at large. The GFC and the Response: There is no doubt that the GFC had Global impact and the visible severity was contained to Europe and Nth America. Western economies and their Central Banks instigated QE policy’s to flood money into the banking system to prevent it collapsing. Out of that came a greedy Bank response – they took the monies and locked it into liquid assets – i.e. Government Bonds and the like. They made a decision to not lend the funds because they had capital issues and the GFC downturn meant businesses were failing all over the place. The Banks perspective was to watch the economy meltdown and survive … they were happy to see jobs contract, house prices plummet, and small businesses go to the wall. It vindicated their choices and the Central Banks were stumped. Governments were pissed, so they had another go and targeted more spending directly at households, this also failed – rather than spend the money to fuel consumption, the people largely paid down debt. Now Central Banks and Governments are hesitant to print more funds as growth shows little signs of recovery, jobs growth in Europe is non-existent, the US is showing some signs of recovery, but by and large, Western Nations are still hovering over the abyss … Some 4-5 years after the event EuroZone Nations like the P.I.G.S. continue to suffered under the Euro currency preventing offshore investment. This will ensure the Euro crisis continues indefinitely until Nations opt out and retake their currency and let it devalue under market forces to levels where their population can compete on a global stage. Example – would you travel as a tourist to Greece, Spain, or other P.I.G.S. Nation if the value of their own independent currency was a third of what it is now under the Euro value? ABS GDP Data: [click image to enlarge in a web browser window.] Mr Swan’s challenges with GDP are on show via several data base sources. Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], RBA, Trading Economics, IMF, CIA, UN, World Bank, and then there are the private researchers tapped into all these resources looking for insight into where the numbers just don’t add up. Table 4 at right is sourced from ABS database. The Year on Year [YonY] number is the hard data averaged. The [+/- Mean Avg] column is the variance from the mean average. The construct of this Table provides patterns of GDP growth that extend or contract from the average. The chart below plots the recessions in true context over the last 30 years – 1982, 1991-2, [the recession we had to have], late 90’s [Asian crisis], early 2000’s [9/11]. The Chart also shows the weakness since the GFC [2008 – ]. Variances to Real and Nominal GDP against Mean Averages Year on Year: [click image to enlarge in a new window – sourced from Table 4 above.] This chart is complex in its compilation – the GDP real and Nominal were averaged over the 1981-2012 years. The % growth of each year was then measured against that ‘mean’ average. Swan tells us that we avoided recession – [recession is defined as 2 negative quarters if GDP growth] – but if Government stimulus propped up the numbers – i.e. exchanging debt for good numbers – the price to be paid is just shoved downstream for the next guy to deal with. In fact this has been happening by successive Governments globally since the 70’s. It is obvious that something happened to the value of ‘Nominal GDP’ verses ‘Real GDP’ in the 1991-92 Recession. Nominal GDP turned negative against mean averages and only recovered to positive numbers in 2007, ‘08, and ‘11. This points to the impact on Nominal GDP because Inflation targeting has been working. To help Mr Swan explain away the so-called ‘revenue write-downs’, he has gone to great lengths to blame the relationship between ‘Real’ and ‘Nominal’ GDP as the reason. The Chart above tips ‘crap’ all over Mr Swan and his debate reasoning. The explanation difference between ‘Real’ and ‘Nominal’ can be read using this Wikipedia source link. It would appear Mr Swan and his Treasury advisors get it that as inflation banding, [CPI] narrows and the real cost of money tracks down – the difference between ‘Nominal’ and ‘Real’ GDP growth also narrows. This is simple is it not. For Mr Swan to promote this natural result as responsible for revenue write-downs is a ‘long-bow’ … and put out there in the hope that nobody will understand the mis-direction it comes with. Further evidence of the impact of Government spending on GDP growth comes from the Chart below. Over a 30 year period, Government Expenditures have grown from 6% lows in the early 80’s, to the 25% averages under Wayne Swan. This by the definition of the formula means as Government expenditures rise so does the impact it has on GDP growth. Mr Swan boasts about the record GDP growth under Labor, and how Australia now ranks 12th in the world and overtaken a few GFC affected Nations. He also uses his favourite catchcry headlines when he fronts the media to respond to economic releases including – ‘contained inflation’, ‘new job creation’, ‘low interest rates’. Regardless whether the numbers be good or bad, Swan’s intent is to brainwash Australian’s into believing the Government is doing a good job in managing the economy. To believe that would be wrong. Mr Swan claims credit for the inflation and low interest rate success’ – yet the contraction in Nominal GDP growth as a result is blamed for revenue write-downs. Mr Swan can’t have it both ways … The Chart overleaf plots Government expenditures as a % of GDP against the year on year growth of Government expenses – [click image to enlarge in a new window – sourced from Table 5 below.]
Between the early 1990’s and 2007, the range of Government Expenditures as a % of GDP was between 13-17% levels. The jump to 20%+ levels started with the GFC spend in 2008 and has continued for all of Labor’s time in office. Yet the evidence in hindsight suggests that Australia escaped the worst of the GFC crisis. In fact there was no real GFC impact in Australia and the Government stimulus used was largely a taxpayer spend that was not needed. We were untouched other than the flight of capital that drove our currency from parity with the US$ to below A$0.60c in a few months during 2008. By the end of 2009 the currency had regained all of its losses and went on to reach highs above A$1.10c. This is summarised by the actions of offshore investors who realised Australia was immuned via the China demand for resources, and the money flooded back in with additional new money that drove our currency to above the A$1.10. It has averaged around the A$1.04 ever since the GFC impact. See A$ v US$ Currency chart link here. There were two shocks associated with the GFC – the first happened early 2008, and the second after the Beijing Olympics in Oct 2008. For the next six months the markets were in turmoil. The Rudd stimulus packages were rolled out through the 2008-2010 years. The ‘expenditures’ in the above chart over the 2008 -2013 years have shown growth levels year on year never before seen. The trend in growth is indicative of Political Leaders misjudging the understanding of economics. Politics is now the bigger story and that stems from increasing political egos fighting for the media limelight. Forget the truth and honesty of the numbers being produced by the Government, selling a message to mis-direct opinion has worked for Mr Swan all the time he has served as Treasurer. Mr Swan has never offered humility – only hubris at those who wish to point out the obvious mistakes made. Winning Government has become about the ‘candy-store’ giveaway and that led to the reasons for the GFC – debt upon debt upon more debt. And since the GFC – it has been more debt on top of more debt and so on. If one was to point to a reason for the GFC – it is easy to conclude that the rise in Government spending as a ratio of GDP across the globe over the past 40 odd years is a major reason. If the Swan Budgets were produced for a public listed Company in any Nation – he and his Treasury cohorts would be in front of the Courts explaining how they could justify the expenditures based on unproven revenues. Government has to learn to understand finance, the cost of money, and its true value relative to our major trading partners. There are many lingering thoughts – Howard and Costello were very generous with ‘middle-class welfare’, and all through this ‘handout’ phase, the budget surplus kept on growing as did the health of the economy. Why? A Question: Are Middle-Class welfare recipients more likely to spend the Government handout on consumables that feed to economic growth, as opposed to low-income earners who use welfare for basic needs, i.e. rent, mortgage, essential living costs … Nominal GDP: See GDP Explanation above understand the difference between Nominal and Real GDP – and/or linked here … Nominal v Real GDP Year on Year – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The gap between Nominal and Real is obvious. In the Chart below the relationship with CPI is also obvious. Nominal GDP Year on Year v CPI – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The CPI shape up against the Nominal and Real GDP growth patterns in the charts used above does not support Mr Swan’s assertion that ‘Nominal v Real’ GDP numbers are to blame for his so-called Budget forecast revenue write-downs. A better explanation would be that the revenues were inflated to support the expenditure targeting. And/or – that the expected MRRT and Carbon Tax forecast revenues did not materialise. All this series of Charts demonstrates is how targeting CPI growth flattens the difference between Nominal and Real GDP comparisons. This is common sense really – as inflation targeting works and volatility wanes, the value of Real GDP v Nominal GDP adjusted for CPI increases, has to reflect the same narrowing and consistency of inflation performance. The Federal Budget Papers were not reporting on this number or forecasting it prior to Swan’s appointment as Treasurer. Someone told Mr Swan about the stat and Swan took the bait to use it to confuse media scribes who knew nothing about the resource measure. In the next Chapter the Debt to GDP ‘Economic Trigger’ is examined. |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story. Thank you
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.
|
EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 –
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| Latest GURU Posts:
– 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 – – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 11: Economic Trigger – CPI: Central Bank Responsibility – The RBA: The CPI is the ambit of the RBA – it is the hammer they have used to bludgeoned the Australian economy for the last 20 odd years via Interest Rate policy. Crush the consumer with higher interest rates in good times to quell the surges that impact on inflation, and reduce rates ever so slowly in placid times so as to not ignite the economy too quickly – MADNESS is another way to describe the RBA’s policies in the post GFC era. It’s a draconian perspective and about as broad thinking as a simple draught board when all the big boys now play on a three dimensional chess board. The RBA charter is to target inflation at between 2-3%. This is spelt out in a bipartisan agreement from both sides of the House. Their ‘ROLE’ is spelt out in part below:
The RBA Board are Government appointments and the last one was Ms Rideout the ex-boss of AIG – [Australian Industry Group]. Ms Rideout was a Gillard/Swan political appointment and brings years of Labor Party schooling to the table. She was a keynote speaker at the recent AWU Annual conference on the Gold Coast. Quite unusual for a RBA Board Member to speak at a Union delegates meeting – is it not. The RBA Board are seen as a conservative bunch and for Ms Rideout to venture into a Union delegates conference as a new appointee to the RBA Board – must have raised some eyebrows. We live in changing times and this visible connection between the AWU and a RBA Board member sends a message that reeks of some many bad things … RBA’s mushroom thinking: The RBA’s inflation targeting is a leftover from the late 80’s and early 90’s where inflation killed the economy and prompted Keating to confess the famous words: ‘the recession we had to have’. Interest rates during that period were pushing 20% and in some cases went above for higher risk Bank clients. Federal Government bonds underpinned the market and were above 14%, State borrowings where higher and the lesson learned was that inflation was the enemy. It no longer is – yet the RBA modelling as with all Treasury thinking remains entrapped in an economic management mindset that has long ago since progressed to different market conditions and with a different focus. It’s now a global market where ‘hot’ money floats around the globe looking for weak regulatory controls and Central Banks stuck in the dark-age thinking – all with the intention of exploitation the local economies. Australia is one such plum picking – we are 23 million people, yet China has for 20 years used its pegged currency to create its transition into a super power of economic activity. Swan and his Treasury and RBA minions take pride in a floating currency – yet history tells us that under a fixed currency system before 1983 – the Government made decisions to ‘devalue’ and never to revalue. There is knowledge in that history – but dumbass bureaucrats think they know better. The world now trades in things like labour costs, value added and that is all to do with currency value. Jobs being exported offshore are about domestic costs verses international costs. For years our Current Account has imported that cheap labour to our shores via cheaper imports … nobody ever though that the end game would be loss of jobs here. The catalyst is currency value. At A$0.75c we were competitive with the rest of our trading partners. With a currency value at or near parity, we have gifted our competitors a 35% discount – i.e. we are now 35% more expensive to deal with. Australia is none of these things, and both sides of politics do not support currency intervention, nor other tariff, or excise policies to combat the trade wars that have eroded A$ trillions in export revenues over the last 10 odd years. If inflation is to be controlled by interest rate targeting, why is it that 0% interest rates in Japan for 20 odd years has never caused inflation? Why is it that with 0% interest rates in the US, and other major economies they don’t have an inflation problem? Since the GFC inflation is nowhere to be seen in the Nth Hemisphere. Inflation is no longer the enemy. A Case Study – Japan’s need for Inflation: Japan came out late last year telling the world it was going to buy inflation and would do everything to devalue their currency, and lift inflation to 2% and above. See Bloomberg story on-line here. The Nikkei Index rose from the 9,000 levels to just under 16,000, before a near 2000 point sell-off last week on the back of comments made from Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Given where the Nikkei has been over the last 20 odd years – it was above 37,000 in the early 1990’s – this recent rally since last November was again all speculation. What goes up will come down in market speak. On the back of this stimulus, the ¥Yen has reversed its modern day strength. See short term chart below: [See 1yr and 10 year charts above. These Charts courtesy of Incredible Charts.] 10 Year Chart:
1 Year Chart:
Not only have Japan printed billions of currency for stimulus purposes, they have also entered the market to sell their currency against a long term trend of appreciation against all major currencies. [See currency charts below.]
Short term ¥Yen currency value against the US$ – showing recent inteventions.
Charts courtesy of www.tradingeconomics.com The long term strength of the ¥Yen has been the reason for their economic ‘stagnation’. Enough is enough the Japanese Leadership have said. Wait – it gets better, look at the last few quarters of GDP growth, [Source http://www.TradingEconomics.com ], and the Debt/GDP numbers over the last 25 odd years in the Chart below. [click to enlarge]
Summary of Japan’s actions: Never underestimate what Government spending can do to hold up an economy. Japan’s DEBT/GDP will explode is the Japanese themselves don’t start to spend domestically. The Japanese are playing a very dangerous game with risks beyond what the GFC delivered. Japan and the rest of the world are in a trade war with China and their pegged currency. Recent mumblings from around the world support Japan, Germany announce yesterday their own abandonment of austerity in favour of investing in Southern Europe … read that story here … snippet posted below:
The World is in one giant poker game – and a few players have gone ‘all-in’ on weak hands. Stand back and watch the carnage unfold. CPI v Interest Rates: No – the reason the RBA keeps interest rates at a margin above the major trading partners is to attract capital … and Australia’s mortgage holders pay the price via higher mortgage costs as a result. It’s been said many times here before – the rest of the world has a siphon hose plugged into Australia’s back door raping and pillaging our wealth to feed the carpetbaggers of the investment world. Australian home-owners are the ones paying the price for the RBA’s incompetence over their High A$ policy and the higher interest rates applicable in this Nation compared with the rest of our major competitors. Inflation is as good an indicator for the future in this post GFC global marketplace as a barren cow, and it’s about time the RBA and Treasury got out of its own way and figured it out for themselves. Because Inflation is an RBA charter, the modelling for Budget forecasts assumes the RBA targeting will get it right most of the time, and with that brilliant foresight the Treasury modelling bank the RBA’s targeted inflation rate into their forecasts.
In the CPI Table at right – you can see the stoic numbers and it makes you wonder why the Treasury bureaucrats are paid the big bucks. Look at the forecasts and see how often Mr Swan signed off on correct results. Since 2007-08 there is not one forecast number within 20% of the actual results. Most are over 50% in error and some well over 100% … is there any wonder the budget results are $290 billion out from forecasts … The record of actuals verses forecasts would make anyone who believed Mr Swan’s budget forecasts across all his last six Budgets some sort of fool. If Business made investment decisions based on the biggest business in town – i.e. the Federal Government expenditure spend, there would be some busted up businesses. Given all that has been said in these series of post about how the RBA targets Inflation – you would think they would be good at it. The Budget forecasts when stacked up against the actual results suggest poor performance that has contributed to the budget errors. Look at every year in the CPI Table at right and you will see the variances in each and every year. The RBA suck at forecasting CPI … and the budget framework around the CPI targeting would be blown apart by the errors in these actuals verses forecast numbers. Nobody doubts the global economic conditions are tough to predict. The GFC has played havoc since 2008 and will continue to do so. But when a Central Bank uses interest rates to crush any sign of inflation – getting the inflation targeting comes with a high price for failure. Some of the forecasts in the Table are out by well over 100% when measured against the actual result. This is poor form and unforgivable in economic terms. Across all the years since 2007-08, there is only one forecast that is out by a minimum of 25% – every other number is out by 50% or more, and more than half the revision forecasts are still out by 100%. Whatever credence the Treasury places on CPI in its modelling – do they know or realise the historical errors in past forecasts, and do they load the budget with this knowledge?
To help with the visual of the CPI Table data at right, the above chart – [click to enlarge] – plots Government Expenditure growth year on year as a percentage, plotted against the CPI annual rate. The chart below [click to enlarge to get a better perspective of this chart] – is a very good chart to show how Government Expenditures and Revenues have grown Year on Year – verses the Annual CPI, with mean average for Revenues, [8.12%] and Expenditure, [7.80%] growth since 1981 – plotted as a straight line in the chart below.
CPI is a very important number – Economic Trigger rated 6 out of 10 where currency is the 10/10 benchmark. But when the RBA get is so wrong and it is their main charter – blame is due where mistakes are made and the RBA have to wear their share. This does not let Mr Swan off the hook. He is in a position to make decisions about all the Economic Triggers – the fact that he has sat on his hands over the Currency proves his understanding is not in the same league of the off-shore players raping and pillaging this Nation through currency based trading. In the next Chapter the Unemployment ‘Economic Trigger’ is examined. |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 –
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– 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 – – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
Chapter list in this Post:
Chapter 7: Swan’s Budgets: The economic triggers talked about in this post form the pillars of any budget process – Government or Private Sector. As sure as night follows day and the sun shines, budgets will always be the foundations from whence all economic prosperity flows. And so it is with bad budgets … Researches and Budget framers can only use the evidence of trends from past performances. It is a case of having one eye focused on the future looking for bumps and freeways, half-an-eye on the now making sure that the forecasts are on track, and the other half-an-eye looking at the past looking for trends that might guide you to better decisions for the now and future. Notes on the Source data: This Economic Trigger research is an extensive extraction of Swan Budget ‘forecasts’ measured against ‘actual results’. A lot of the research information comes from the Federal Budgets on-line source. Links to each Year’s Budget – www.budget.gov.au – for each of the forecast periods are provided below, with a separate link to display an Image file of the Budget forecast summary:
Analysis of the extracted data can only question Treasury’s modelling outcomes. Treasury consistently failed to predict the excess ‘revenues’ of the Howard era, and now they have overestimated ‘revenues’ and underestimated ‘expenditures’ all during the Rudd/Gillard years. Historical Budget Outcomes 1996-2012: The variance in Budget result – i.e. ‘actuals’, verses the Budget ‘forecasts’ since 1996 is plotted in the Chart below.
The Table at right is the data used in the previous chart. The ‘Revenue’ variances of 2011 [12.94%] and 2012 [11.24%] appear well out of range with other ‘Revenue’ results – except for the 1999 Asian crisis where Costello saw revenue and expenditures actuals both come in at a bit over -11%. The ‘Expense’ variance numbers up to 2007-08 show plus and minus results ranging from +6.3% to -4.26%. What is notable is the ‘Expense’ average of the Howard years is -1.87%. By comparison the Rudd/Gillard tenure has ‘Expense’ variances averaging 3.24% The ‘Revenue’ averaged for the Howard years is -0.41%, as opposed to the Rudd/Gillard years at -5.56%. Without doubt the Treasury modelling under the Swan era has increased its error ranking by a factor of 498% – i.e. sum of Swan variances [-8.9%] / sum of Costello variances [-1.79%]. The harsh reality is the raw numbers for the Costello tenure accounted for a cumulative Budget result amounting to A$53 billion in surpluses, and the Swan results are A$135 billion of deficits. This bottom line result of these two numbers of $188 billion has cause. But if we are to believe Mr Swan’s excuses in the last few years it has been because of ‘revenue write-downs’. The Table and Chart prove that Mr Swan has a completely different reason for his budgetary errors, and they are not because Treasury Modelling is solely to blame. Chapter 8: Budget Modelling: The main triggers used to formulate the Federal Budget modelling are listed below – Economic Triggers: [Each of the Triggers listed below have been rated – “TR” = Trigger Rating – and measures the indicator and its influence on economic and Budgetary outcomes – the ranking is out of 10. Links for each Trigger to Wikipedia, ABS, RBA, or other source as provided.]
The ‘triggers’ used in this research all feed to Revenues, Expenditures, Debt, and when considered in the modelling phase of the Budget process. The forecasts are influenced by Government decisions and choices made about existing and new policy’s. Ultimately the Government is responsible for the Budget errors – yet, as history shows there is never any real accountability for retrospective errors. All budget integrity is contained within their forecasts and estimates, i.e. the probable, versus the improbable, versus the impossible. Mr Swan’s budget forecasts are mostly about the impossible. If the Government wants an outcome that the modelling cannot come up with, how does a Government go about get the result it needs to fund the policies they want to implement? It is not hard to draw an argument that PM Gillard had an agenda based on election promises in the 2010 election. The most famous being the ‘No Carbon Tax’ and the new ‘MRRT’. Swans biggest forecast errors came in the 2010-11, and the 2011-12 budgets, and all on the revenue side. Swan’s claims that the budget result went into tailspin deficits based of revenue expectations not being met, has face value creditability. But to accept this reasoning you have to believe that the revenue forecasts were reasonable and achievable to begin with. The Table summary above proves that the consistency of errors on both sides of the budget make Mr Swan’s revenue expectations in the budgetary ‘impossible’ category. When a Government promises a Budget surplus as iron-clad and as far out as PM Gillard and Treasurer Swan did in the 2010-11 budget, what can they do when it comes to 2012-13 budget time and the expenditures are locked in and already spent? When the new ‘MRRT’ and ‘Carbon Tax’ fail to deliver the expected forecasts revenues, and the political equation in admitting to a failed ‘budget surplus’ promise means an even more woeful poll response, the craven way out is to blame the Treasury modelling. This Government has fudged the numbers and proving it will be no easy feat. Someone in Treasury knows what’s going on and has help.
Table 1: Economic Trigger Forecasts v Actuals. [click Table to enlarge in a new browser window – previously displayed in Post – Part 2.2] This Table at right as previously stated provides the ‘actuals’ versed ‘forecast’ numbers for the Economic Triggers used in the Budget modelling for all Federal Budgets, and most other public and private budgets as well. Table 1’s set of numbers represent the most sensitive triggers, CPI, Un-employment, GDP, Terms of Trade, and Current Account. The Federal Budget forward estimates over each of the next four years are derived from these numbers. Mr Swan knows the Treasury Modelling is unique and not property held outside the public domain. He knows to try and duplicate how Treasury modelling use each of the economic indicators in Budget forecasting is a fool’s errand. So why do this research you might ask? As a moral exercise or challenge for each and everyone of us, It is important if you see something wrong or bad happening and you can do something about it, expose it, or report the problem. Our integrity and moral compass is guided by Societies expectations and those who can make a difference should do so. Walking away is the same as agreeing to what is happening … and so it is when apathy becomes the problem. This Nation needs is more fixers and doers, not charlatans and pretenders fudging their way with no experience or understanding of their portfolio construct and responsibilities. When Swan delivered his 2013-14 budget estimates/forecasts 14th May 2013, do you think he went back and looked at his 2009, ’10, ’11, and ’12 estimates/forecasts, and compared the actual outcomes with the past forecasts? Do you think he pondered just how bad his Treasury Modelling performs? Indicators like ‘Nominal GDP’ have appeared in Swan’s budget papers, yet were not even a part of the forecast in the Budget papers under Costello in 2007-08. Chapter 9: Budget Revenues –
2008: Revenues: This was Swan’s first Budget and there may have been some expectation overflow from the Costello era the surpluses would just keep rolling in. The variances against expectations were significant – -6.4%, -13.1%, -13.9% and -7.8%. 2008 – Expenditures: The same with the Expenditures – the actuals exceeded the estimates by -11%, -9.2%, -7.1% and -11.4%. Add them together and the yearly estimates were, -17.4%, -22.3%, -21%, and -19.2%, 2009 – Revenues: The Revenue actuals hit close to target in 09-10, and 10-11, but had Costello type windfalls in 10-11, and 11-12. 2009 – Expenditures: As much as the revenues exceeded targets, the expenditures pretty much ran the other way for similar amounts. This budget was delivered in May ’09 after the worst of the GFC. 2010 – Revenues: The over-estimate errors returned for the Revenue. This was an Election budget and good forecasts were political capital. 2010 – Expenditures: Expenditures all over the place with over and under estimates of significant percentages recorded on the two completed years. The cumulative sum of errors over the two completed years in percentage terms was 17.2% against forecasts. This was an Election budget and good forecasts were political capital. 2011 – Revenues: Only a single year of actuals are in – and again the forecasts were over-estimated. 2011 – Expenditures: The same happened with Expenditures and the result was almost identical. and Expenditures for error factors yields margins of error if applied to any family budget would cause weekly chaos. Summary: 2008-09 was the GFC year and some budget estimate errors had to be expected for the forecasts made in the 2008-09 against actuals. But by 2009-10 the currency had recovered, and China was buying our minerals as fast as we could ship them. Australia had escaped the worst of the GFC yet the Rudd/Gillard and Swan teams continued with a spending spree that lasted well into 2011-12 budget cycle. How Governments responded to the GFC was natural order in their want to protect what has been a way of life for western society for many decades. Governments wanted to protect the corrupted Banking systems, the Corporate raiders, and the Government gravy ride. Global Leaders were not prepared to make the hardest decision in a half a century and the globe will suffer at least another 10 years of economic hardship as a result. Chapter 10: Economic Triggers – Real and Nominal GDP:
The 2008-09 Budget predicted the following growth forecasts:
These forecasts when matched with the ‘actual’ numbers in each of the years passed yield the following outcomes:
… these variance numbers, i.e. +.03%, +1.55%, -1.0%, +0.4%, don’t mean a lot when taken in isolation as Treasury Head Dr Martin Parkinson spoke about in his Treasury response to criticism of the latest budget. See his speech here. However – when the error factor multiplier is used to theorise about how a +1.55% becomes a 207% error, these variances impacts exponentially on CPI, revenues, expenditures, unemployment, interest rates, household consumption, and a host of other economic indicator outcomes. Dr Parkinson’s flippant dismissal of the modelling errors is an indication of just how complacent the budget process has become. Another way to view the Treasury Departments modelling is to say that the numbers being produced cannot be trusted any more. Good number increases for ‘GDP Growth’ and the ‘Terms of Trade’, as opposed to bad number increases in ‘Unemployment’ and ‘Current Account’, have the potential to produce ‘actuals’ that impact on all the other budget forecasts. For example the 2009-10 GDP forecasts were revised from the 2008-09 budget estimates as follows:
This analysis and the more to follow is complex and in a world with an attention span of a millisecond – this commentary means what to who? To most people it’s ‘jack-shit’ … who in their right mind would do this type of research … well there are people who live for these sorts of equations and number extractions, and particularly so when they contain misrepresentations that allows a Government to perpetrate a continuing fraud on the Australian people. Mr Swan has to take responsibility for his poor forecasts … he signs off on the budget numbers. Anything less diminishes his office and weakens Treasury creditability. In the next Chapters more ‘Economic Triggers’ are examined. |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 –
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| Latest GURU Posts:
27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part I – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 27th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget”:
Chapter links in this Posts:
Chapter 3: Wayne Swan’s Headlines:
Swan’s Budgets: The Wayne Swan’s history can be told in each of his six previous Budgets. On each of these nights he stood before the Nation and gave us his forecasts for the Nation over the next 12 months, and across the forward estimates. Below, those forecasts and outcomes are challenged and reviewed in the light of accountability, and why the numbers just never stacked up given the state of the economy. Firstly – Links to Mr Swan’s Budget speeches:
To re-read these speeches is like being involved in a ‘Groundhog Day’ experience … Swan wrote these speeches without understanding the consequences of his responsibilities as Treasurer of the Nation. In all the forecast’s researched in this project – there is no evidence recall of him even getting the big calls right … perhaps a CPI target here and there, but revenues, expenses, GDP, and the like were all grossly over or under estimated. Treasury modelling have never got it so wrong so often on the big number calls. Swan’s Promised Surpluses: How many and how often did Mr Swan promise to deliver budget surpluses? There were four [4] in the 2012-13 budget for the 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 budgets. Gillard and Swan made the 2012-12 surplus an iron clad promise every year since 2010. In the six years of Swan budgets … the sum total is an error factor of $290 billion between forecasts and the reality to the 2011-12 year. The 2012-13 result will add another $30 odd billion to that number. These forecasts along with many other economic indicators are exposed in this post. [See Economic Indicators Index.] Swan’s “Jobs…Jobs…Jobs…” creation: [click on Table at right to enlarge.] It’s all a myth – of the 960,000 in new jobs Swan brags about – 60% are part-time. Another statistic shows average monthly hours worked has fallen from 145.3 to 140.4 since Feb 2008. [see table above for evidence.]
This translates to less work and less take home pay, and as the economy slows in a post mining boom economy, the workforce will be hit hard through job losses and more reduced hours. The saying that – ‘for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction’ – rings true in finance and economic forecasting. Swan’s predictions on jobs and unemployment, and all the other economic triggers have dire consequences if his numbers don’t measure up. Swan’s gong – “Treasurer of the Year”: Euromoney Magazine voted Wayne Swan treasurer of the Year in 2011 – read story on-line here – or here to satisfy copyright purposes. The title of the article was – “Swan confounds his domestic sceptics”, and was published Sept 2011. This article read again with two more years of failed Swan promises makes one ponder how he was ever chosen as ‘Treasurer of the Year’. The award is voted on by Swans peers, other G20 delegates … and given how they have all managed to stuff the world up since the GFC … we have reason to spit in the eye of all who voted for Swan. To see all previous winners of the award – use this link. Euromoney publish these comments to advise how they make their decisions.
Swan’s Song – “Dunce Treasurer of a Generation”: Mr Swan has my rating of his performances and it has been so for a number of years. Anyone, and more importantly, any Political who cannot admit to failure or mistakes and do so without blaming others when the responsibility rests as in this case with the Treasurer, it measures the man in so many ways. The bar for Politicians has to be higher in accountability measures. If you stuff up you need to come clean. This ‘little-boy’ in a giant tin hat is what ‘Bernie Madoff’ is to Ponzi schemes … what ‘George Bush Jnr’ is to America’s ‘horror’ history … Mr Swan brings new mediocrity to the role as Treasurer and his Caucus colleagues can’t see when it stare’s them in the face year after year. Mr Swan is someone who overreached by a long way when promoted to Treasurer. He was smart enough to realise the overreach and has spent his whole time faking it, and just never admitting to his cock-up’s. Australian’s will pay full price and more for the mistakes made by Mr Swan. Chapter 4: The Politicisation of Budget Forecasts:
Included in the May 2012 budget speech, Mr Swan forecast four budget surpluses for the oncoming four years. Read his May 2012 speech here. In the May 2013 budget speech Mr Swan should have shown some willingness to eat some crow. Everybody was waiting to hear what Mr Swan would say about the 2012-13 $20 billion turnaround, and what the ‘new’ forecasts were for the next three promised surpluses and beyond. Mr Swan did not admit he made mistakes, or that he got it wrong. Nor did he did not show humility at the continuing errors arising from all his previous budget predictions. In delivering his most recent Budget speech he never really addressed the issue of accountability. The most recent Budget speech and responses are linked below:
In fact – in his 2013 speech Mr Swan went on the attack over the failings of the economy to not match his forecasts. He actually blamed ‘Real’ versed ‘Nominal’ GDP forecasts for the actual revenues not matching the budget forecasts. This is why modern politics is no longer about truth or honesty. To get it so wrong so often over the whole of the Swan tenure as Treasurer demands fresh accountability. Humility still is a politician’s greatest asset and yet – none, I say again – none of our modern Leaders across all levels of politics will admit to error or show that humility when they have made mistakes. Swan pushed the blame to the Treasury modelling – and that is such an easy choice – none of them can defend themselves on any public stage … unless of course someone turns whistle-blower. There is ‘fraud’ in this budget, and it is not a stretch to say the same about Swan’s past budgets as well. Late last week – Treasury Head Dr Martin Parkinson PSM came out and fronted the media after the media gave Swan’s Budget a serve. Dr Parkinson’s full statement is linked here in PDF format. In part it said:
There is much in the speech that is challengeable – rather then get caught up in the defensive posture offered up by Treasury this point is noted. The 1.6% and 1.9% errors talked about in the extracts above equate to a 1.6% of the actual GDP growth – that is a 1.6% error on a 3% average number. That in real terms is like more than a 50% error on original estimates. The same for the 1.9% [absolute % error] on Terms of Trade is also similarly presented to disguise the real $dollar value of the error. Treasury have got it wrong for a long time – underestimating every one of Costello’s surplus budgets, and overestimating Wayne Swan’s revenue and expenditure budget forecasts. That is 17 years of bad estimates. The errors in the Swan Budget’s amount to $290 billion when forecast surpluses/deficits measure up against actual results. This is to the end of 2012. All of which is now pretty much new debt created. [See previous Table 3 for more information.] Surely if this was accountable politics, errors like this need to be accounted for. Why is Mr Swan still serving as Treasurer? There is only one answer – to dump him pressures Julia Gillard’s position. If Gillard dumped Swan her Leadership would fail. So it comes to the case where mediocrity is rewarded, and Australia pays the price for incompetence. Chapter 5: The Research – Budget Data Extraction Tables: The economic forecasts in Table 1 below are extracted for Budget papers for forecasts and actuals. The Treasury modelling errors are confirmed when they are matched up for past years. CPI – is in line with RBA targeting. Un-employment through the GFC period was over-estimated which should have saved $billions in forecast expenditures. The GDP Real and Nominal numbers are not too bad and within acceptable margins of error. Table 1: [Budget Forecasts v Actuals for CPI, GDP Real and Nominal, Un-employment, Terms of Trade, and Current Account. Click to enlarge Table in a new window.]
Table 2: [Budget Forecasts v Actuals for Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Result with GDP ratios. Click to enlarge Table in a new window.]
One only has to measure the depth and breadth of the numbers included in both Table 1 and Table 2 as presented above – and to compare the actuals v forecasts across all the six Swan Budgets to confirm an ongoing ‘fraud’ is exposed. Mr Swan has never showed vision beyond his – ‘Jobs …Jobs … Jobs’ rants. This Government’s socialist agenda to spend as much as needed to protect the workers from economic and market forces proves the agenda. It is beyond comprehension in these global harsh times that so much protectionism is afforded when the Government of the day lies to the people about its budget forecasts to get the job done. It is a case of telling the Business leaders on this Nation one thing and then setting agenda’s based on a completely different set of rules. There is no thought process applied to how the consequences of the actions to let budgets run amok without prudent and required measures in place to halt spending when the revenues don’t measure up to forecasts.One only has to measure the depth and breadth of the numbers in this Table – actuals v forecasts across the six Swan Budgets to confirm an information ‘fraud’ has been committed. Mr Swan has never showed vision beyond his – ‘Jobs …Jobs … Jobs’ rants. His socialist commitment to spend as much as needed to protect workers from economic and market forces proves his agenda is beyond his comprehension of economic times. He also has no concept of a thought process to combat the reality of the numbers as they contradict his estimates. The 2013-14 Budget was an election year Budget – yet the radical spend of past budgets was not evident as evident. Has Swan realised that election defeat in three months means this budget has no validity? Did he serve up this budget knowing it would come to nothing, as the new incoming Government would learn the full extent of the Government’s finances soon enough? The future spend on the NDIS and Gonski will suck $10’s of billions from all future budgets. How was Swan going to pay for these policies? Yet – the Government is still hell bent on introducing the Legislation before they exit office. How responsible is a Government that legislates policies with no plan in how to fund them, other than to find savings within the existing expenditures. Who would trust Mr Swan to be able to do that? With no chance of winning an election, and no understanding of how they will fund the NDIS and Gonski reforms, Swan and this Government have set about a fraud that leaves a legacy to create mayhem for any incoming administration. No – that is hubris and demonstrates the arrogance Gillard and her team are all about. In Table 2, the forecasts for ‘Revenues’, ‘Expenditures’, and ‘Fiscal Result’ is further examples of the Swan fraud. The $1.5 billion surplus announced 12 months ago, and electorally locked as a surplus since 2010, is now admitted to be a $19.4 billion deficit. Who knows what level it will finally settle at – there is another three months of figures to be finalised. Between the 2009 budget when Swan had ‘Headline’ forecasts of $180 billion over the forward estimates, to a 2010 forecasts for ‘Headline’ forecasts of $44 billion deficit. Swan used a ‘Picasso’ swipe to create $135 billion of revenues to reduce his forecast deficits. At this stage the Carbon Tax and MRRT were still in the legislative stages. These numbers were fraudulent and deliberately so to serve political purposes. There was an election in 2010 and this was the setup budget for that election. At this stage Rudd was still PM – an dhe would have signed off on the forecasts. There is plenty of reason to doubt the integrity and political agenda of all MP’s, but in Mr Swan’s case, it takes a particularly evil person to lie so obviously to the Australian people knowing that the consequences of that lie impacts on future generations in ways that Mr Swan will never have to be exposed to. In other words – Cabinet Ministers are picked for political choices and reasons and not necessarily for what they might know about a particular portfolio. To that conclusion – it is not hard to lower the boom on our Leaders who struggle with their portfolio responsibilities. There is a global trade war going on at the moment and out Leadership is oblivious to its impact or how Australia needs to respond to deal with the consequences. Chapter 6 – A Question to Ponder This research has prompted several thoughts and questions. One such question is:
Who measures that ability – voters, caucus, party members … or is it a question of who polls best, or who’s turn it might be, or who has the most factional support … A response to this question in the context of Gillard and how she became PM challenges any belief in our parliamentary system – what is it that inspires anyone about Gillard and her team? My annual viewing of the TV Political series – “The West Wing”, prompts the timing of the question. During Series 3 episode 7 – where CJ Creeg – [Allison Jannely] does her thingy over the Republican Leaders response to the – ‘Why do you want to be the President’ question, I was perplexed to think about the question in a real setting. Hence the thought about why someone like Gillard would want to be a Prime Minister. She has a criminal past, and is currently under police investigation – why would she tempt fate when she knows she can’t win give her past? The question goes to any Leader … what can they bring to the table that will inspire a Nation … In the next Chapters the ‘Economic Triggers’ are examined in more detail. |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1-
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– 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part I – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 27th May 2013 | |
 Apologies to all subscribers and readers for the absence of new posts in the last 10 or so days.Thanks to Herman for stepping up with his posts to keep the site active.
That time has been spend doing some really exacting research on Mr Swan’s latest and previous budgets. The first installment of that research is presented below – all with the focus of exposing an ongoing ‘fraud’ on the Australian people. The research will be available in a Word/PDF file once completed, but to get some of the data out there, what follows is the first the Chapters. List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 1 Introduction: Part I of this EYE-BALL Guru expose titled – … The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – linked on-line here … … offered opinion about Wayne Swan’s past Budget outcomes, the continuing deficits, and the now more deficits against what was 12 months ago to be three more years of surpluses. Part II of this expose is further commentary based on research into the Economic Indicators used to help frame this and past Budgets. The research delves into forecast values, and their accuracy when compared with actual results. It also goes into the relative importance of individual economic triggers and how they are used by Treasury Modelling to frame the Budget forecasts. The research will provide ample evidence to allow the conclusion that Mr Swan’s budgets have been less than honest with the numbers, and how politicisation of the Budget forecasts has put at risk the confidence of the Nation’s population and Business Leaders. The 2013-14 Budget: – Included are a great number of Tables and Charts, with Internal and External links to help navigate you to the source material. Each Table and Chart has context if only to demonstrate the truthfulness in numbers, and how they are presented by those who would use them to cloud and confuse. If you are interested in finance and economics then you will be challenged by the read. If you are a novice then this ‘heads-up’ is to prepare yourself to be surprised. Australian’s must be made aware just what has happened to this Nation’s finances – Treasurer Swan, Prime Minister Gillard, and her team have perpetrated a purposeful ‘fraud’ on the Australian people, and it is not just about the ‘Carbon Tax’ lie. Six consecutive budgets from Wayne Swan have sent this Nation into near actual $300 billion in new debt, and after the 2013-14 Budget, that forecast is pushing towards $350 billion. This despite Treasurer Swan’s assurances of four consecutive budget surpluses in his 2012-13 Budget. This turn around and uncertainty leaves the Nation and Business leaders confused about future business plans. This is a serious attempt to prove a ‘fraud’ as there can be … please read it in with a sponge like mind whether you be a Labour, a Greens, Independent, or Coalition supporter. Please feel free to pass it on to others. Chapter 2: Purpose and Overview: The GFC: There has never been a time during this generation where the pressure to get the economics of an economy right has been as fraught with uncertainty, and a lack of conviction from Global Leadership that they know how to fix the GFC aftermath. Since the GFC – Superpowers have continued to print money to protect their Nations financial stability – all the time fast-tracking their economies into more dangerous waters. The debt solution has compounded the reasons for the GFC in the first place – an abundance of Government and Private sector debt that had become increasingly ‘higher-risk’. It was only a matter of time before the risk in owning such debt became a ‘risk’ that nobody wanted. This created the ‘sub-prime’ crisis where the debt was ‘rated’ by Ratings Agency as ‘AAA’, yet carried a ‘CCC’ credit worthiness. It was a toxic virus shoved into the financial markets with no known ‘anti-virus’ cure. It bought the global financial markets to a shuttering halt as Nations, Banks, and merchants refused to trust one another. Credit dried up, and Central Banks faced with a complete melt down did what they have always done since the 1987 crash – flooded the markets with cheap cash to again induce investors to take risks with a cost of borrowed funds near 0%. In the aftermath of the Lehman Bros collapse that ignited the focus on the ‘Sub-Prime’ derivative Goldman Sachs trashed to save themselves – and as portrayed in the 2011 movie “Margin Call” with Jeremy Irons and Simon Baker, the global financial system would and should have failed. The actions of Governments to save the markets from a complete collapse came from a ‘panic and desperation’ response by regulators who never saw the collapse coming. The bailout came via Quantitative Easing policies delivered as each previous stimulus failed and more was needed. The rest of the world followed suit. With hindsight knowledge – it could now be called the ‘Dumb and Dumber’ bailout as the wastage and abuse by the Banks to protect their balance sheets and viability meant the money being handed out never got to the end borrowers trying to save their business’s. That all happened in early 2009 and continued in the years since. The flood of money is still chasing the globe looking for returns as Central Banks continue to charge near 0% costs. As a result large and structural aftershocks are still building pressures for the next ‘big-one’. New record highs in the DOW is a false dawn … new money flowing out of low yielding assets into better yielding equities is a sigh of the investment world desperate to make profits. ‘Risk’ is now back on the investment agenda. The ‘Greek’ and other P.I.G.S. Eurozone bailouts are ongoing eruptions and will continue to bleed resources dry from surviving economies. Governments, Central Banks, are exhausted – they realise more debt is wasteful. Greedy buccaneer type Bankers who are back to their owl ways of mega bonuses and shady deals take no prisoners – it is these types who own the true responsibility for the GFC meltdown. That is of course if you don’t count the Regulators asleep on the job over the last 30 odd years. And yet – in the four years since the GFC, the Bankers at the heart of the ‘sup-prime’ fraud have yet to be found accountable for any of the crisis. They have appeared before courts and Senate Hearings – but the Regulators are not smart enough to understand of know where to begin to trace the fraud origins. Billions in bonuses have been paid to these Bankers and they will never be made accountable. The approach from Regulators has been tunnel vision stuff and will never change. It’s a ‘them’ verses ‘us’ and the Regulators will always be reactionary as opposed to the innovators in the marketplace. Those responsible for the GFC will never be made accountable, never spend a day in goal, and the cost of whatever price still has to be paid to fix the problem will be for the globe to bear, and bear they will. Who owns the Global Sovereign Debt: The Chart below portrays actual and forecast Debt/GDP ratios for OPEC Members. [Click on Chart to enlarge in a Web Browser Window.]
The security and integrity of all that sovereign debt is under pressure. Ratings Agencies are challenged and after their GFC failings when they sold ‘AAA’ ratings for ‘sub-prime’ assets in exchange for massive ‘bribe monies’, why should they be trusted ever again. That sovereign debt is owned by investors and the ‘risk’ on that investment capital not eroding edges higher every day. That does not consider the interest cost of the debt as the ‘risk’ factor escalates. If Greece, Spain, or other EuroZone Nation fail, more will follow and the worth of that debt owned by investors will disappear. That translates to massive write-downs on all that Debt, and that means Hedge Funds, Superfund Managers, Investment Banks and the like will all have to pass those losses on to the individual holders who invested with the Fund Managers. If you are a Super Fund investor – and that is every Australian – you may think you are not at risk – you would be wrong. Australia avoids GFC: Leadership should be about conservative choices, particularly in these high-risk times. This is where Treasurer Swan has failed in his responsibilities to all Australians. He has given false predictions to the Australian people for six years about the Government’s finances at a time where the GFC has created its own uncertainty. Whether it is just incompetence as a financial manager, or a politician with an agenda apart from managing the Nations finances, Mr Swan has become a ‘joke’ in his own Nation when it comes to his ability to get his Budgets anywhere near the reality of the economy. The view held by many is that Mr Swan’s forecasts are all to suit the ALP election purposes and the Treasury modelling numbers are no longer reliable. Mr Swan does not appear to understand where his duty of care resides, or if it is a case that he is aware, then is pursuit of promised budget surpluses is based on skullduggery and corrupted by an ALP socialist agenda. Despite the failed budget surpluses, the Prime Minister still has him serving as the Treasurer, and that is the PM’s failure. The PM has history of rewarding those with shady, or shonky pasts – i.e. Craig Thompson, Peter Slipper, Tony Sheldon, Bernard Murphy, and of course her own AWU fraud past. Our GFC horror awaits us – we were saved by China and evidence of this was there for all to see by late 2008. The A$ had sold off in early 2008 and recovered this selloff from mid-2008 as off-shore investors first bailed and then realised their panic. During early 2008 the A$ fell from parity to below A$0.60c in a matter of weeks, and then from mid-2009 rallied to above parity by early 2010.
The Averages:
This was all on the back of China buying our resources to satisfy their demand – China’s timing was impeccable and ever since China has dominated the Global markets with everybody wanting to increase their trade with China. Mr Swan has often bragged about how the ALP saved Australia from the GFC. To believe that is to believe in the ‘tooth-fairy’. In fact the budget spend under the ALP has been criminal in terms of the misread by the Treasury and the RBA. The High A$ cost: What follows in detail is a macro forensic examination of Australia’s current and future financial wellbeing. The research exposes Gillard’s and Swan’s leadership flaws and how they have transformed the Nations finances from ‘no-debt’ and a very exciting economy when Rudd took office in late 2007, and turned the Nation’s finances upside down with new indebtedness approaching $300 billion. Another negative has been the surging A$ to which the RBA, the Treasury, and both sides of politics believe should be allowed to ebb and flow without intervention. Against other Nations who peg their currency, and keep it devalued giving them a competitive edge Australia are too stupid to realise and do anything about it. Our Labour force is no among the most expensive in the world and Swan’s ‘Jobs – Jobs – Jobs’ cry is a meaningless war cry when the man does not understand what it is he does not understand. Jobs are being exported, Companies are closing down because they can’t compete with cheap off-shore imports, and all because Government economic policies – and this includes the RBA’s charter – focus on ‘inflation targeting’ as an economic barometer. The evidence is there in the job losses being announce everyday – Business can’t compete with the A$ at historical highs and some A$.025- A$0.030c above 30 year averages. The high currency continues to erode our economy every working day. The A$0.04c sell-off since Mr Swan delivered his budget speech almost two weeks ago a week is a signal from the international investment community they might just be taking some profits. If they are preparing to exit as they see an end to the ‘rape and pillage’ access they have been given access to, then the Australian economy will recover in 2-3 years. If the A$ is allowed to again increase in value without intervention or policy initiatives to impose a cost to buy and invest in our currency – then we deserve everything we get. When and if the exit out of A$’s starts in earnest, the A$ will free-fall and our exporters will sigh relief. Industries like Tourism, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Resources, Retailing, have all struggled in this GFC aftermath against a high currency. To find reasons why neither the RBA, nor the Government tried to find a way to stem the easy ride given to these off-shore investors is not a simple exercise. Lunacy comes to mind … This current group of ALP MP’s have no concept of what Australia needs in the modern world. Their ideas and policies are still tunnel visioned around 80’s Union thinking. These are times for very different approaches and if Australia is to regain its competitive edge on the global marketplace, we need new ideas and a Leadership who can inspire and with a vision that challenges existing beliefs and protocols. Whether the Opposition can do any better is still to be proven. What is known is that they will be left with a Gillard/Swan legacy no incoming Government has ever had to face or deal with. The challenge is there and if Abbott can overcome then he will have proved many wrong. The Prime Minister under Police Investigation: The Prime Minister now admits that she is under Police investigation – having denied it in the 2GB Ben Fordham interview during March. This admission should be enough for the media and the ALP caucus to call for her to step aside. She refuses and is now in a full blown election campaign to seek further tenure as the Prime Minister. It is outrageous that she is allowed to continue to serve whilst under investigation for serious charges. Clinton held onto power, Nixon resigned, but none of them were facing allegations of fraud as Gillard faces. The ‘criminal’ allegations Ms Gillard faces has serious implications for the reputation of all those who hold public office. Mr Thompson and Mr Slipper are also before the courts on fraud type charges. How can the public be expected to trust our Leaders if they are involved in crimes against the public purse. Add the Obeid/MacDonald and associates exposed during the ICAC inquiry – and the HSU’s Willianson, there is reason to investigate crimes committed over the misuse of public monies via a Royal Commission. These corruption stories are the broken sewer-line that is causing stench all across Australia. It goes to the Prime Ministers toxicity and ebbs all over her caucus for not doing something about it. How is it possible for some 72 ALP HOR Members and 30 odd ALP Senators to accept as their Leader someone who is under police investigation? The Swan Budget fraud begins and ends with this history of corrupt acceptance … Footnote: Published in The Australian on the 22nd May is a story titled: “Budget numbers add up, says Treasury, but the forecast is clouded” – it was written by David Uren … linked on-line here – it is well worth the read.
There will be another 8-10 Chapters to complete this series posts on this subject. The endeavour will be to have them all posted by weeks end.
Thank you for your continued support.
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