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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.6 -
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– 31st May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 – – 29th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 - – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget - A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 - – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations - – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A continuing Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.6 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 19th June 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A continuing Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 14: Economic Trigger – Debt to GDP Ratios: The measure of any Nation’s prosperity can be read by their Debt to GDP ratios. The Australian ratio has been low by world standards for a long time. Australia’s “AAA” credit rating remains at the highest level – and there is a question in that statement – as other Nations fall down the rankings because their DEBT/GDP ratios rise all a result of the GFC Central Bank printing of money, and Australia’s ranking position improves despite the increased indebtedness, Australia’s ranking and avoidance independence from similar weakness is only a matter of time. We depend on exports, yet with the high cost to do business with Australia and largely because of our healthy economic position, it will be the same reasons why we trip and fall down the rankings. We have priced ourselves out of the market. Can you imagine any time soon where Australians will willingly take pay cuts, public servants accepting less remunerations and more productivity, where Unions turn militant against forced layoff’s and wage cuts? Look to the P.I.G.S. Nations to see what potentially lies ahead … avoiding this scenario will require some hard political decisions. Opposition Treasurer Joe Hockey gave an excellent picture in his Budget Reply address – linked here – as what may lie ahead. The vision was tempered because to tell it like it is would quash public confidence already down 7% since the Budget speech last week. The chart below gives reason for concerns about the Australian Debt/GDP growth. [Click to enlarge in a new window.]
It is easy to see the difference between ALP and Coalition economic policies. Since early 82 when Hawke assumed office – the next 30 years of Governance has seen 11 years of Conservatives, and the balance with Labor. The Chart above shows what happens under Labor Governments, and how Conservative Governments impose restraints to spending and budget deficits. Under Treasurer Swan, he has managed to do in five years what 27 years of previous Governments never did. Swan presides over the highest Debt/GDP ratios Australia have had in a generation, or for as long as records have been kept to make these comparisons. Wikipedia has this to say about Debt/GDP ratios – linked here.
Australia ranked 12th of economies in growth of Nominal GDP from 1980-90. In the period 1990-2000 they ranked 16th, and in the period 2000-10 they ranked 10th – source linked here. Australia’s debt levels are not critical when compared with many like type economies. The debate about the failed Swan ‘surplus budgets’ and the escalation in our debt levels through record deficits, is a judgement call on whether this is the time – i.e. in the aftermath GFC – to grow Debt/GDP ratios as the rest of the world also increases its Debt/GDP levels. For the Government to go on spending sprees that burn resources that may be needed to protect the economy when real hard times do visit our shores, the question becomes about the political agenda of those doing the spending, up against the real cost of protecting the economy. The OECD record of Debt/GDP growth of the OECD membership gives clear illustration of the globes worsening financial position. This is illustrated in the OECD Member Debt/GDP Chart at right. Since 2007 – the average growth in DEBT/GDP levels for OECD members has increased from 74% to 112%. In coming months and years, the lenders of monies who have facilitated this growth in debt will be demanding higher interest rates as risk of default increases. This average numbers applies to the OECD member group – Table of all OECD members and their Debt/GDP ratios provided below. [Click to enlarge in a new window.]
WIth Russian levels so low – the G8 average of 104% suggests that the other seven (7) Nations are in real trouble. This evidence proves what once was considered the world’s richest Nations are now fast approaching critical mass in economic terms. There is real change in economic power on the way. Mr Swan’s continued claims that our numbers are good in comparison with other OECD members is a false truth – our DEBT/GDP growth rate since the GFC is the highest growth % of any of the OECD Nations – i.e. 13.8% in 2008 to 28.9% in 2013. That is a 109% increase in DEBT ratio – and only beaten by Ireland [157%], Spain [110%], and equalled by Slovenia [109%]. That puts Australia in some pretty ordinary company … Mr Swan’s argument that the headline number of 29% is the envy of the rest of the world is true but has nothing to do with his economic management – John Howard can take credit for having such a low DEBT/GDP ration when the reins were handed over in 2007. Mr Swan cannot crow about any of Australia’s economic prosperity – in fact he has done his best to kill all industry and commerce with his high A$ and high Interest Rate policy. He may claim that the RBA set both these policies – well he had better think about appointing RBA Board Members who are not friends of the ALP if they ever get the chance again. Without China’s demand for our resources – no amount of spending by the Government would have saved the day. On this Economic Trigger alone – Swan and his Treasury and RBA get a rating of ‘gross’ incompetence. Defending the A$ rise after the sell off in early 2009 during the ‘resource trade’ exit would have given the Nation a 50% export revenue windfall for the next five years … that is worth A$trillions and whatever the RBA spend in defending the A$ would have be seen as chicken feed. This has been a complete misread of the economic fallout and demonstrates how ‘boofheads’ at the RBA and Treasury have no idea what they’re about in the new global marketplace. Focused on Inflation containment in a market where every other Nation wants inflation gives insight to the RBA’s ancient thinking. The ‘Australian Debt Clock’ has a history function for designing Charts – it is a great resource for image projection for the state of the Australian financial wellbeing. Chapter 15: Economic Trigger – Bond Yields and Official Cash Rates:
Then it comes to significant data – data that has an impact on real lives, cost of money – i.e. interest rates and currency hold sway over every other economic indicator. Interest Rates are always an electoral banner line. It’s where voters feel the impact of botched or healthy economic policies. The RBA are charged with monetary policy responsibility. This goes to CPI – i.e. Inflation targeting, and the only dark-age tool the RBA is prepared to use to manage the policy is Interest Rates. Budget Result, 10yr CGS, CPI, Debt on Issue, Debt/GDP ratio, and CPI v 10yr CGS spread: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The RBA are charged with monetary policy responsibility. This goes to CPI – i.e. Inflation targeting, and the only dark-age tool the RBA is prepared to use to manage the policy is Interest Rates. They don’t target currency – their biggest mistake, they only monitor all the other economic indicators as an adjunct to what they do with interest rates to punch holes in the economy if the pressures from the other indicators are of concern. Even the Banks challenge the RBA’s authority when they don’t match and lag on rate reductions, yet apply rate increases in full and as soon as possible. By example – in the last two years of official cash rate reductions this practice of delaying passing on rate reductions has been a media story. Banks are openly defying the RBA – it is almost as if the Banks are a protected species – and the RBA too scared to play the heavy hand. In the early stages of the GFC the Government gave the Banks ‘protected status’ and this gave the larger Banks a competitive edge over all the smaller players. In the aftermath of the 1987 crash Banks were also given special conditions in dealing with their eroding capital base and the continued writedowns they were carrying. If a Government was looking for a sure means to raise revenues – why would they try to tax the miners when the Banks make mega profits in all types of markets. A ‘Profits’ based Tax comment: Given the maniacal focus the Government has on ‘profit-based’ taxes – all aimed at the resources sector i.e. petroleum and mining – one ponders why the Banks are not also targeted. With collective annual profits from the NAB, ANZ, WBC and CBA over the last 3-4 years averaging $20-$25 billion per year – you would think that that would qualify them for a ‘super-profits’ tax. The Banks are profitable in any market, more so when economic times are buoyant. Since the GFC and after the Commonwealth gave then preferred Banker status with guarantees, Australian Banks continue to rank among the most profitable in the world. Targeting the high-risk mining sector is a lottery exercise for budget estimates on tax collected as the last year has proven. With the capacity to write down mining leases, infrastructure, and bring forward expenses into current years through tax minimisation schemes, the mining industry are not a sure bet profits based tax system. The Banks are. The four Banks mentioned are Australian owned, Australian based, surely a super tax on Bank profits is a more apt tax grab then targeting the resource sector. One has to think what the likes of Twiggy Forrest, Gina Rinehart, Clive Palmer, and other mining magnates did to draw the attention of the ALP with the super-based tax. The miners pay ‘royalties’ to the States and the ‘super-profits’ tax competes with State revenues and the royalties charges. It’s a direct conflict and the law courts should uphold the legitimacy of the MRRT – 10yr CGS v CPI v Debt/GDP ratio: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
This is a great chart to show the GFC impact on Australia’s Debt/GDP ratio, relative to historical trends with CPI and the 10 year Commonwealth Bond yields. Mr Swan’s comments about our core Debt/GDP levels being the envy of the World have face value. But to say further, if Mr Swan thinks he can brag about that being his or this ALP Government’s responsibility he lies and takes credit where credit is not due. Our own GFC crisis still awaits us – in recent times the FORD plant closures, the petroleum refinery closures, the HOLDEN troubles, the mining boom ending, te tourism industry in tatters, the manufacturing and retail industries – all are showing signs of fatigue with a labour force cost pushing jobs off-shore. The fall in the A$ since the budget will help, but it’ll take 18 months or so for it to impact on the economy if continues to head lower. 10yr and 2yr CGS v RBA Cash Rate: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The focus of the above Chart confirms the Interest rate targeting by the RBA has taken volatility out of the risk equation. This has been great for off-shore investors who see stability, and more importantly – still a 2-3% interest rate gap over interest rates in their own Nations. Since the GFC they have parked their funds here for safe haven and Treasurer Swan opens the doors and lets them pillage from Australian home owners still paying far too much in mortgage rates. This is illustrated further in the ‘Cash Rates’ of other Central Banks below: Global Central Bank Cash Rates: – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
Again, this Chart does an excellent job of proving evidence in how the RBA has screwed all Australians – they would never look at it that way – but that is the reality as offshore investors take advantage of the interest rate gap that feeds to the high A$ – that also feeds to our ‘most expensive Nation to trade with status’ … Why is the differential there in the first place … in response the RBA will argue it is the premium that has always been there … but the chart reveals the gap during the lead up to the GFC in 2007 was a premium of 1%, during tha GFC crisis that gap blew out to 7% in 2008, and in more recent times has narrowed to a 2.5% gap. During the worst of the GFC – the Government spend like jack rabbits and the RBA boosted interest rates, before allowing them to fall in a gradual fashion – always keeping a 3% and more margin between the US and Australia’s official cash rates. Does the RBA think it better at economic management then the rest of the other G20 Finance Ministers … Perhaps the RBA can claim some fame for keeping inflation in check – but who cares in a market where the risk is more about deflation … talk about incompetence and focus on the wrong game … Australian Mortgage holders are still to this day paying 2-3% above those rates of our major Trading partners. In the period since the 2013-14 budget speech the A$ v US$ has shown weakness, the Treasury head has come out and forecast that their modeling was all wrong on so many levels. Even said that the new budget was already under pressure because some forecast resource prices have already come under pressure. Today we had Holden issue a statement that its workers would have to take pay cuts or lose their jobs. How do you think the Unions will respond to that. Tis is the dam wall crumbling and all under Swan’s ‘Jobs and Growth’ mantra … the idiocy of his failed understanding in how a high A$ combined with real high Interest rate policy settings have destroyed Australian industry will be revealed in coming years. The RBA won’t think like that because they are no longer Bankers – they are bureaucrats with one eye on their pensions and careers. The RBA’s charter and mandate needs an overhaul like many other choked Government Departments – i.e. Justice Department to name one. Chapter 16: Economic Trigger – Currency Value: There are many prongs to how ‘currency value’ impacts on every aspect of the economic cycle and triggers. It is the most important of all ‘triggers’. A$ v US$ since Float with Averages – [click image to enlarge in a new window]
The Chart above plots the Trade Weighted Index TWI, against the A$vUS$ since the 1983 float of the A$. There is a lot of detail and further explanations are offered below: Averages:
These numbers portray economic times and how the World has perceived the Aussie Battler and how our resources have impacted on our trade and current account numbers and all offset by the higher A$ value. To explain further: Resource contracts with our export Nations are domiciled in US$’s. So in raw terms a 100 million tonnes of ore exports in SU$ terms would return Australian exporters an A$ value dependent on the exchange rate, and the price of the ore. With the A$ at the long-term average of A$0.7557, that would equate to A$ receipts of 133.2 million. The same trade with the A$ at its post GFC average of $1.0182 returns the exported A$98.2 million. That is a 26% reduced revenue if the Iron Ore price in US$ terms stayed constant. But we know that is does not – see link here for 5yr monthly price of Iron Ore in SU$’s. From this example one can see that as ore, coal, agriculture and the many more commodities prices fluctuate, the revenue to Australian produces gyrates on two fronts – currency value and commodity value. Commodity prices are set by supply and demand and since the GFC, China holds pride of place – all roads lead to China as a trading partner – struggling economies want China’s business. That gives China a wedge and advantage on so many levels. It is not hard to imagine what China can do with this position – it is not beyond the imagination to think that China could pull orders for Iron Ore [i.e. stop buying] around contract renewals to allow the price to fall and have miners scramble to renew contracts against the new miners wanting to climb the ladder for Chinese business. This is the new ‘WAR’ – it’s a global war on trade and the human factor is ‘labour costs’. So as Australia with a fixed wage system and Unions to get involved when seen to be needed, current wage costs in Australia will see this Nation’s competitiveness erode as other Nations usurp our export markets with cheaper goods. This should be the only thing the RBA should be focused with – and if they don’t see it as important, then the Treasurer and the Government who set policy should have had this matter on their radar for many years and have implemented measures to weaken the A$ … obviously it has not happened – and why is that? Only one answer – our Leaders do not understand finance, nor what it is they do not understand about how markets work. Under Gillard the A$ v US$ has maintained its lofty levels without any language since 2008 until a few months ago about how the A$ is not the reason for revenue write-downs. See Chart below to see the A$ performance during Rudd and Swan’s, and Gillard’s and Swan’s tenures … A$ v S$ during GFC period and to current: [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The dump in late 2008 and recovery from early 2009 proves that the decision makers had no idea what was afoot at the time. Currency Management has never been a priority of this Government or the RBA. This is absolute ‘hillbilly’ economic management. In the toxic investment environment prevailing world-wide during and immediately after the GFC – off-shore investors had to find a safe haven for their funds. Their criteria needed stability of scales, leadership, relatively stable economy, a economic status that was tapped into the world economy, and most importantly, an opportunity to secure a return on that investment via interest rates, and/or a currency that would not in all likelihood depreciate or erode capital. There was only one option – Australia. As China’s demand for resources were not affected by the GFC – the selloff in the A$ in and during the GFC worst days gave a million reasons to reverse that sell order – the currency was now below $0.50c, half its value a few months earlier. To add to the gravy ride, the RBA mover interest rates up against what every other Nation was doing. Stupid right … but invite these investors we did and they came in with their $100’s billions and the RBA gave them assurances talking up the interest rates saying that they had to keep them high for fear of inflation pressures. What a cock-suck … Blind dumb idiots in a panic did exactly what the carpet baggers of the world wanted. And here we are now … raped and sucked dry with a siphon hose stuck right up our arse allowing the wealth to be sucked out of Australia without any ‘risk’ premium involved. Currency value is the be all and end all in the new global trade wars … high currency means expensive labour costs from an off-shore perspective. It is an instant kill shot to industry and the growth in export markets. It encourages imports which in turn leads to job losses and internal economic slow down. The opposite to all things Swan is so proud to advocate. His ‘jobs and growth’ speeches are famous for the hollowness sound they echo. Added to Swans stupidity is that of the RBA’s inflation targeting policy, and the Treasury modelling he uses to frame his budgets, all still focused on things that mattered 20 years ago – this Administration’s economic management makes George Bush look pretty good. Swan will realise in his golden years what it is that he did for Australia – one wonders will that make him humble … In the next Chapter the ‘Terms of Trade’ and ‘Current Account’ Economic Triggers are examined. |
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EYE-BALL Opinion – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant -
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 Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. – 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful - – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – True Leadership – - we are yet to experience the way it was meant to be - | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 6th June 2013 | |
| Leadership is on the mind constantly – in recent times it is the lack of that prompts concern and angst.
Who among our previous Leaders understood Australia – all of Australia, its People, its Industry, its desires, its resources, its indigenous occupiers, the island context, the convict heritage, the Head of State concept, there is a need to embrace and understand it all before anyone can hope to satisfy the needs of the Nation. Walking backwards –
None of the above Prime Ministers offered Australia anything other than party politics – some did tried to be different but were frustrated by factional structures and individual ambitions. An observation might be that none truly governed for Australian’s, and that is an extreme failing in the choices Australian’s had to choose from. The people have to have confidence in their Leader – confidence as different to party loyalty – a belief that they have some idea in how to run a Nation as opposed to beating the other side with opposing positions and pistols drawn … Bi-Partisan support is a must if Government is to get the respect of the people – without it the Nation is divided and that can never be a good thing. When was the last time that Question Time showed genuine respect for the other side … both sides are guilty – all are guilty … Policy on Immigration, Indigenous affairs, Defence, National Security, Health, and Education – the policy for each of these areas should all be agreed to via bi-partisan cooperation. Australia’s interests are damaged if both sides fight and don’t agree in these areas, and the public brawling over one another’s deficiencies divide us further. Having two mainstream Political Party’s that form our choices for Government – one who supports the working class, the other the employers and Business sector create the divide. Neither will ever come together to unite the Nation. Our convict heritage is entrenched in our belief in the ‘haves’, and ‘have nots’ – and that cultural handicap is with us forever … Politician’s created and foster the divide, and as each side gets a stint at the helm – the trenches on both sides become more engrained – it’s a WWI thinking and the Leaders and their party powerbrokers have the same General’s perspective as they did in WWI – sheer insanity in their belief that their way is the only way … The National Party have align with the Liberals to help out farmers and the like … but as Australian’s we need to know that who ever is in power will have all our backs and Govern for the whole of the Nation – and not for the secular groups that fund their election campaigns – i.e. Unions and Big Business … We are no closer than we were 100 years ago to evolving as a Global Democracy whilst our Leaders continue to have these selfish party instincts – to reject everything a Government proposes when in Opposition, and/or a Government who don’t give a shit about what the other side cares about – nothing will change. As an example – nobody can say that this current Government is not the worst in living memory – neither side would pour water on the other if they were on fire … in most cases they would both light the fires … Watching Senate Hearings, the HOR and the Upper House give us good reason to blame our Leaders for the divide created … and it will take a Leader with a vision 10 times what Gillard or Abbott offer to make this Nation come together. The re-emergence of the Republic debate in recent days showing Swan and Turnbull holding hands selling a joint message about becoming a Republic is a distraction and an example of selfish interests. Neither thinks the other worthy in any other forum and is an example of the gross hypocrisy on display in our so called Democracy every day of the week. The attacks in the House this week by the Government against State Governments who don’t support the Gillard Gonski plan is another example of how divided politics and policy has become. Gillard threatens to punish States who do not agree with her plan – as if her plan is the best and only plan … the hubris in that ultimatum is the example of how divided the Nation has become and no election result will meld it back together again. The Abbott Government are just as hellbent on their choices and it will be more of the same and that is the wrong. What Leader can get us past this party politics divide … what Leader will yield and extend an open hand to the other side for better Government? The minority Government of the last three years was an experiment in bi-partisan politics – the Greens, The Independents, all had their price to support the Party they supported to form Government. It was not a willing agreement because both extracted financial and policy gains in trade for their coercion … bribes and payoffs by another name. Democracy is Government of the people – and putting the Greens with 11+% of the vote in a position to demand the ‘Carbon Tax’ to do a deal for Gillard to form Government – how is that Government of the people … Green voters got their want – but they represent 11+% of the vote – the informal vote was higher in the 2010 election. How does that serve the will of the people? Wilkie was offered a $billion hospital – Windsor and Oakeshott had their hands out as well … and all that has got us is three years of the worst Government outcome possible… As the Nation limps to a September election – people believe relief will embrace them … it will be more of the same and within six months it’ll be everybody complaining about Abbott’s choices … There is an option – make ‘None of the Above’ the most popular vote and have our political leaders forced to accept change – if enough people make the statement that they don’t support either side of the political equation – it will force change … that might take a decade to get right … but that beats $100’s billions of ALP debt and $100’s billions of Coalition cuts and the like as both sides square up against one another … Surely the divide is a place where all Leaders should meet and talk policy – not the powerbrokers and special interest groups wanting favours … policy should be about what is best for the majority, not the minority … Many will say this opinion is naive – and perhaps it is. To think that Political Parties can be aligned on common interests – would that not be a great thing … please think a little deeper first before you throw out the messenger before you really understand the message … |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL Opinion – The Gender Debate and “Mandated Elevation”
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: - 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today .. - 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful - - 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice - - 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government - - 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds - - 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … - 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans - - 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy - - 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … - 25th Apr – Prime Minister “JEZEBEL” - Does she deserve the Respect of the People? - - 24th Apr – The Australian’s Hedley Thomas & Friends – Still hunting down Gillard over the AWU Scandal - To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – The Gender Debate - - and “MANDATED ELEVATION” - | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 4th June 2013 | |
| The gender equality debate has raged for generations and continues to do so. In that timeframe an outsiders perspective might advocate that men have allowed themselves to be seduced by the fairer sex to help the feminist movement move forward.
It is that ‘seduction’ that fosters a thought that as women use their womanly favours to get what they want – logic allows the opinion that the feminist agenda and its ‘privilege creep’ is a result of that ‘seduction’ and begs the question as to how far it will go. That advancement has sometimes been achieved through sheer intimidation, open and militant threats to withdraw sex within marriage, and other formats all aimed at making men feel uncomfortable with their lot and their assertive controls over women. History shows the gender battle has been forged by some outstanding feminists with policy platforms that could not be argue against. It’s was always a yield based on a logic to ‘keep the peace’ – and to ‘not upset the women’ … it was in many ways a pity agreement formed from a man’s perspective to keep women happy. Was that man’s guilt at having it too good – or was it a simple way to get their women back into bed willingly? This advancement has come far – women are now the deciding force in all western elections – it is where media campaigns are targeted, won and lost. Politicians now live and die on the will of women voters as they vote for charm and charisma above policy and logic – WOW – did those words just come forward or were they formed as a part of a inner belief? Generally – men have cowered from the advance – they are simpletons and they enjoy their sex willingly offered as opposed to begrudgedly yielded. Imagine if the ‘right to vote’ was refused and was still the case today – stupid, ridiculous you might advocate …but reflect for a moment – how has giving women the voting changed society, changed the way our Governments function? Every female Leader in State and at the Federal level has been kicked from office – assuming Gillard is headed the same way come September 14th. How many States have given a women a 2nd chance – none that I know of – Kirner, Lawrence, Bligh, Keneally – all gone and their States have never had a female Premier since. The current Tasmanian Premier may become the exception … ? But rest assured – it will be a long time before Australian’s elect another female PM … we never really elected this one and the way she became PM is a stigma on all female politicians. This post is not meant as an opinion story about whether the question on equality is right or wrong, the question is about a subject that was raised in a story published a few days ago – ‘mandated elevation’ … Read story below:
The ALP have a gender mandate that wants to have women make up 40% of all ALP elected members. Surely a mandate in this context is flawed – surely the best person, female or male should be the bench mark. If not – how many males who bust a gut to get ahead and strive are beaten by a mandated quota of female appointments. Is that not a reverse sexism argument. Surely our society has evolved to a point where women want the need to be embellished beyond their abilities. The concept of total equality is misguided in its origins – there are things women can do that no man can ever do and vice versa. Women and Men are not the same there are differences, strengths and weakness’, genes and societal differences, and despite all the advances made to try and bridge the equality gap – are men and women any happier with their lot? It is a debate akin to handling a live grenade with the pin pulled – ask women if they are happier wearing the responsibilities they now bear … single motherhood is at its highest level .. why? Is the feminist movement impacting on mothers and their role as nurtures – instincts that men will take another 100 years or so to figure out … This is born of ‘Political Correctness’ and it’s a soft-cock debate – if men refused women the vote back in the early 1900’s would society be as promiscuous, as materialistic, as selfish, or as destructive when it comes to divorce and separation … women seem to be driving all these issues. Would men have become cowards to women’s issues as they now do – none will stand up and say what they feel for fear of retribution as a sexist … Would they have confusion issues surrounding women as their bosses, women challenging the role normally played by fathers and husbands, and would men be second guessing themselves over their abilities to satisfy their women given the expectations of women these days? A man now has to think twice before he bats an eye at a women – yet women take their partners at will … men are scared of women who are assertive and can that be a good thing society … The wheel has turned and for it to be OK to accept and expect mandated elevation based on gender, then that is another reason for man to feel despised and persecuted … Where can this end – and there is only one answer … badly for children and their ability to understand 1000’s of years of evolved society … all ditched within a 100 years … |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 -
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| Latest GURU Posts:
– 29th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 - – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget - A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 - – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations - – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.5 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 12: Economic Trigger – Unemployment:
The Table at right – [Click on Table to open and enlarge in a web browser window.] reproduces the ‘Unemployment’ numbers forecast in successive budgets since 2007-08. The ‘actuals’ result versus the forward estimates make for some interesting assumptions. For example the 2008 forecast for 2009-10 was for 8.25 % unemployment ton the back of the GFC crisis. In 2009-10 the forecasts for 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13 were also high relative to actuals and again were in fear of the GFC impact. These high forecasts meant the budget expenditures had high welfare numbers that were never needed as ‘actuals’ proved. In fact the savings in the ‘Unemployment’ expenditures should have been a reason to celebrate. The 2009-10 forecast of 8.25% against an ‘actual’ of 5.2% measures an error factor of 3.05% or 37%. The budget savings on this number from a 10.971 million employed workforce – [see Labour Force Table overleaf] would be roughly 350,000 jobs. With a fortnightly Newstart allowance payment in 2010 of near $550 at the time, the budget savings equates to near $5 billion. The budget deficit in 2009-10 was $56 billion against a 2008-09 forecast of a $22.4 billion surplus. The $5 billion windfall savings makes the deficit look even worse. Similar errors were made for the 2009 forecasts for 2011-12 unemployment numbers – i.e. forecast was for 7.5% against actuals of 5.1%. Two things – the GFC was an easy excuse to lift unemployment forecasts, and the resultant savings from reduced actuals were never used to increase the forecast surplus – i.e. the $22.4 billion forecast became a $56 billion deficit. What is $5 billion in Unemployment savings going to do against a Government with a Budget deficit some 400% off target. The flat line context in the forward estimates for Unemployment numbers across the 2012 and 2013 budget estimates will look challenging as job losses across the Nation continue to mount over plant closures, and resource industry wind-backs. And all as a direct result of the continued high A$ impact on competitiveness in manufacturing and other export related industries since before the GFC. Labour Force: The ABS produces the Labour Force numbers monthly and based on ‘sampling’, after adjusting for seasonal factors and a six-year smooth average. It’s a ‘bullshit’ number pumped full of bureaucracy steroids to give the best possible numbers. For example – when Swan and his fellow Ministers brag about 971,000 jobs created, what he should say is that there have been 493,000 full-time jobs and 478,000 part-time jobs. [See Table Below: Click to enlarge in a new window.]
The liar illusion Mr Swan promotes along with all his Parliamentary colleagues is the economic prosperity we all enjoy because this Government has created this number of jobs … The reality in the Table of Labour Force data above is that average monthly hours worked has been falling since the early 2000’s – down from 145.3 to 140.4 hours per month in Mr Swan’s term as Treasurer. Also, every December/January some 200,000 school leavers begin to look for work. Come mid-January and if they have not found work they join the ranks of the un-employed. This number is ‘smoothed’ by the season adjustments and the six-year average – i.e. every new month or each year a number from six years ago drops off … it is hardly a true indication of real un-employment in the now time frame … People on un-employment who are attending courses are also treated differently, as are long-term unemployed … in fact the ‘un-employment’ number could not be more ‘doctored’, and when forecasting the number for budgetary purposes economic forecasts are about the best guess any forecaster can employ. The job losses in the last 3-4 years because of the High A$ cannot be measured. Ford sacked 1200 employees a week ago – that was currency related – all the tourism workers now gone and working in mines are somewhere else – a 40 year industry build on Hogan’s ‘throw a shrimp on the barbie’ is in trouble. Australia produced raw materials, the resources are shipped offshore for ‘value-added’ improvements, and then we import it back here as ‘trinkets’ from China that in six month’s time is on a scrap heap somewhere. What are Australia’s strategic fuel reserves – information to hand suggest we have about a fortnight’s fuel supply and with refiners shutting down operations because of the High A$ – what happens if we’re held to ransom by a trading partner supplying us with refined fuel or oil … One of the major failings of all Governments in the past has been in identifying essential industry and business to Australia’s needs, and making sure those industries serve Australia’s interests. Turning iron ore into steel for example – we’ve shut down most of our steel mills because of the high A$ and cheaper offshore labour costs. We’ve also exported the emissions associated with the industry to offshore Nations with less than ‘best practices’ for the environment. We still need the steel and when we buy it back at a multiple of the price our miners sold it for – that difference equals Australian jobs. If world commerce carries on and turns the way it is – eventually we’ll be depended for everything … and what will that do to jobs – the only growth industry will be aged care and euthanasia casualties – i.e. mortuary’s. Chapter 13: Economic Trigger – Real and Nominal GDP Growth: Addition Research: link to previous GDP comments in Part 2.3
The name GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and is an index measured formula that looks like this –
The formula is simple, when a Government increases its own budget spending, GDP growth will reflect that spending. When Mr Swan brags about Australia’s economic climb to 12th on the list of ‘nominal’ GDP rankings – his spend over the past years via massive deficits has fed to that growth. The GDP growth is not natural but Government induced and all for a cause that is beyond sinister when Swan brags about the same growth factor because of good economic management.
Look at the last four years in the Chart above – it shows the impact of large deficits on GDP growth [2009-2012] – as compared with 30 years of previous GDP numbers: [click chart to enlarge in a new window.] The Swan growth years are manufactured, and knowing what Australian’s now owe – can we ask Mr Swan to give us his reasons to borrow the way he has against the consistently promised budget surpluses? To make the analogy – the 2012 deficit was $47 billion, and the deficit for 2013 is now forecast at $20 billion. Does the fall in GDP from actual 3.5% in 2012, to the presumptive growth of 2.6% in 2013 have a connection with the reduced budget deficit? Definitely – the past years Government expenditure as a factor of the GDP number has averaged A$7.6 billion since 1980 – [i.e. the Government spend as $ factor of GDP]
Another way to look at Government spending as an impact on GDP is to divide the Government Expenditure into the GDP number – this yields a GDP ratio for every Government dollar spent. In the last four years the GDP impact on Government spend is at its lowest level ever. The ratio of the Swan years is A$4.1 billion. See Chart above: [click to enlarge in a new window] – that means Swan’s spend is getting less bang for the buck spent. In 1980 under Fraser every A$ billion Government spend yielded $16+ billion of GDP growth. In the last four years it is near $4 billion – meaning spending power by Government in the economy is a quarter what it was 30 years ago. This can be seen is a good thing – it highlights the diversity of the economy at large. The GFC and the Response: There is no doubt that the GFC had Global impact and the visible severity was contained to Europe and Nth America. Western economies and their Central Banks instigated QE policy’s to flood money into the banking system to prevent it collapsing. Out of that came a greedy Bank response – they took the monies and locked it into liquid assets – i.e. Government Bonds and the like. They made a decision to not lend the funds because they had capital issues and the GFC downturn meant businesses were failing all over the place. The Banks perspective was to watch the economy meltdown and survive … they were happy to see jobs contract, house prices plummet, and small businesses go to the wall. It vindicated their choices and the Central Banks were stumped. Governments were pissed, so they had another go and targeted more spending directly at households, this also failed – rather than spend the money to fuel consumption, the people largely paid down debt. Now Central Banks and Governments are hesitant to print more funds as growth shows little signs of recovery, jobs growth in Europe is non-existent, the US is showing some signs of recovery, but by and large, Western Nations are still hovering over the abyss … Some 4-5 years after the event EuroZone Nations like the P.I.G.S. continue to suffered under the Euro currency preventing offshore investment. This will ensure the Euro crisis continues indefinitely until Nations opt out and retake their currency and let it devalue under market forces to levels where their population can compete on a global stage. Example – would you travel as a tourist to Greece, Spain, or other P.I.G.S. Nation if the value of their own independent currency was a third of what it is now under the Euro value? ABS GDP Data: [click image to enlarge in a web browser window.] Mr Swan’s challenges with GDP are on show via several data base sources. Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], RBA, Trading Economics, IMF, CIA, UN, World Bank, and then there are the private researchers tapped into all these resources looking for insight into where the numbers just don’t add up. Table 4 at right is sourced from ABS database. The Year on Year [YonY] number is the hard data averaged. The [+/- Mean Avg] column is the variance from the mean average. The construct of this Table provides patterns of GDP growth that extend or contract from the average. The chart below plots the recessions in true context over the last 30 years – 1982, 1991-2, [the recession we had to have], late 90’s [Asian crisis], early 2000’s [9/11]. The Chart also shows the weakness since the GFC [2008 – ]. Variances to Real and Nominal GDP against Mean Averages Year on Year: [click image to enlarge in a new window – sourced from Table 4 above.] This chart is complex in its compilation – the GDP real and Nominal were averaged over the 1981-2012 years. The % growth of each year was then measured against that ‘mean’ average. Swan tells us that we avoided recession – [recession is defined as 2 negative quarters if GDP growth] – but if Government stimulus propped up the numbers – i.e. exchanging debt for good numbers – the price to be paid is just shoved downstream for the next guy to deal with. In fact this has been happening by successive Governments globally since the 70’s. It is obvious that something happened to the value of ‘Nominal GDP’ verses ‘Real GDP’ in the 1991-92 Recession. Nominal GDP turned negative against mean averages and only recovered to positive numbers in 2007, ‘08, and ‘11. This points to the impact on Nominal GDP because Inflation targeting has been working. To help Mr Swan explain away the so-called ‘revenue write-downs’, he has gone to great lengths to blame the relationship between ‘Real’ and ‘Nominal’ GDP as the reason. The Chart above tips ‘crap’ all over Mr Swan and his debate reasoning. The explanation difference between ‘Real’ and ‘Nominal’ can be read using this Wikipedia source link. It would appear Mr Swan and his Treasury advisors get it that as inflation banding, [CPI] narrows and the real cost of money tracks down – the difference between ‘Nominal’ and ‘Real’ GDP growth also narrows. This is simple is it not. For Mr Swan to promote this natural result as responsible for revenue write-downs is a ‘long-bow’ … and put out there in the hope that nobody will understand the mis-direction it comes with. Further evidence of the impact of Government spending on GDP growth comes from the Chart below. Over a 30 year period, Government Expenditures have grown from 6% lows in the early 80’s, to the 25% averages under Wayne Swan. This by the definition of the formula means as Government expenditures rise so does the impact it has on GDP growth. Mr Swan boasts about the record GDP growth under Labor, and how Australia now ranks 12th in the world and overtaken a few GFC affected Nations. He also uses his favourite catchcry headlines when he fronts the media to respond to economic releases including – ‘contained inflation’, ‘new job creation’, ‘low interest rates’. Regardless whether the numbers be good or bad, Swan’s intent is to brainwash Australian’s into believing the Government is doing a good job in managing the economy. To believe that would be wrong. Mr Swan claims credit for the inflation and low interest rate success’ – yet the contraction in Nominal GDP growth as a result is blamed for revenue write-downs. Mr Swan can’t have it both ways … The Chart overleaf plots Government expenditures as a % of GDP against the year on year growth of Government expenses – [click image to enlarge in a new window – sourced from Table 5 below.]
Between the early 1990’s and 2007, the range of Government Expenditures as a % of GDP was between 13-17% levels. The jump to 20%+ levels started with the GFC spend in 2008 and has continued for all of Labor’s time in office. Yet the evidence in hindsight suggests that Australia escaped the worst of the GFC crisis. In fact there was no real GFC impact in Australia and the Government stimulus used was largely a taxpayer spend that was not needed. We were untouched other than the flight of capital that drove our currency from parity with the US$ to below A$0.60c in a few months during 2008. By the end of 2009 the currency had regained all of its losses and went on to reach highs above A$1.10c. This is summarised by the actions of offshore investors who realised Australia was immuned via the China demand for resources, and the money flooded back in with additional new money that drove our currency to above the A$1.10. It has averaged around the A$1.04 ever since the GFC impact. See A$ v US$ Currency chart link here. There were two shocks associated with the GFC – the first happened early 2008, and the second after the Beijing Olympics in Oct 2008. For the next six months the markets were in turmoil. The Rudd stimulus packages were rolled out through the 2008-2010 years. The ‘expenditures’ in the above chart over the 2008 -2013 years have shown growth levels year on year never before seen. The trend in growth is indicative of Political Leaders misjudging the understanding of economics. Politics is now the bigger story and that stems from increasing political egos fighting for the media limelight. Forget the truth and honesty of the numbers being produced by the Government, selling a message to mis-direct opinion has worked for Mr Swan all the time he has served as Treasurer. Mr Swan has never offered humility – only hubris at those who wish to point out the obvious mistakes made. Winning Government has become about the ‘candy-store’ giveaway and that led to the reasons for the GFC – debt upon debt upon more debt. And since the GFC – it has been more debt on top of more debt and so on. If one was to point to a reason for the GFC – it is easy to conclude that the rise in Government spending as a ratio of GDP across the globe over the past 40 odd years is a major reason. If the Swan Budgets were produced for a public listed Company in any Nation – he and his Treasury cohorts would be in front of the Courts explaining how they could justify the expenditures based on unproven revenues. Government has to learn to understand finance, the cost of money, and its true value relative to our major trading partners. There are many lingering thoughts – Howard and Costello were very generous with ‘middle-class welfare’, and all through this ‘handout’ phase, the budget surplus kept on growing as did the health of the economy. Why? A Question: Are Middle-Class welfare recipients more likely to spend the Government handout on consumables that feed to economic growth, as opposed to low-income earners who use welfare for basic needs, i.e. rent, mortgage, essential living costs … Nominal GDP: See GDP Explanation above understand the difference between Nominal and Real GDP – and/or linked here … Nominal v Real GDP Year on Year – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The gap between Nominal and Real is obvious. In the Chart below the relationship with CPI is also obvious. Nominal GDP Year on Year v CPI – [click image to enlarge in a new window.]
The CPI shape up against the Nominal and Real GDP growth patterns in the charts used above does not support Mr Swan’s assertion that ‘Nominal v Real’ GDP numbers are to blame for his so-called Budget forecast revenue write-downs. A better explanation would be that the revenues were inflated to support the expenditure targeting. And/or – that the expected MRRT and Carbon Tax forecast revenues did not materialise. All this series of Charts demonstrates is how targeting CPI growth flattens the difference between Nominal and Real GDP comparisons. This is common sense really – as inflation targeting works and volatility wanes, the value of Real GDP v Nominal GDP adjusted for CPI increases, has to reflect the same narrowing and consistency of inflation performance. The Federal Budget Papers were not reporting on this number or forecasting it prior to Swan’s appointment as Treasurer. Someone told Mr Swan about the stat and Swan took the bait to use it to confuse media scribes who knew nothing about the resource measure. In the next Chapter the Debt to GDP ‘Economic Trigger’ is examined. |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.
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EYE-BALL Opinion – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today …
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts: – 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful - – 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice – – 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government – – 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds – – 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was … – 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans – – 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy – – 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her … – 25th Apr – Prime Minister “JEZEBEL” - Does she deserve the Respect of the People? – – 24th Apr – The Australian’s Hedley Thomas & Friends – Still hunting down Gillard over the AWU Scandal – To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts: |
Title: – Revisiting the Past – - A post some two years ago has relevance today … | Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 30th May 2013 | |
There has been some intelligent comments in recent days on a post some two years ago – it is appropriate that the post be revisited again – the post can be read in its original format here …
In the two years since – what has improved … it is a depressing assessment and no wonder Australia is angry … I watched Question Time today – and Albanese’s childish behaviour when denying or accepting Tabled documents is indicative of everybody in the House – how many evictions … warnings … none have respect for the office or the Leaders sitting opposite one another. Outside the House the hubris continued with Albanese and Gillard claiming moral ground on the electoral funding because Abbott renege … can’t they see that this bites them just as much … how blind these mice of men are … Revolution is one answer – the election can’t come quick enough … how can a Nation focus on success with so much Leadership failure all around us. |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story. Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 -
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| Latest GURU Posts:
– 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 - – 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget - A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 - – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations - – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.4 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
List of Chapters in this Post:
Chapter 11: Economic Trigger – CPI: Central Bank Responsibility – The RBA: The CPI is the ambit of the RBA – it is the hammer they have used to bludgeoned the Australian economy for the last 20 odd years via Interest Rate policy. Crush the consumer with higher interest rates in good times to quell the surges that impact on inflation, and reduce rates ever so slowly in placid times so as to not ignite the economy too quickly – MADNESS is another way to describe the RBA’s policies in the post GFC era. It’s a draconian perspective and about as broad thinking as a simple draught board when all the big boys now play on a three dimensional chess board. The RBA charter is to target inflation at between 2-3%. This is spelt out in a bipartisan agreement from both sides of the House. Their ‘ROLE’ is spelt out in part below:
The RBA Board are Government appointments and the last one was Ms Rideout the ex-boss of AIG – [Australian Industry Group]. Ms Rideout was a Gillard/Swan political appointment and brings years of Labor Party schooling to the table. She was a keynote speaker at the recent AWU Annual conference on the Gold Coast. Quite unusual for a RBA Board Member to speak at a Union delegates meeting – is it not. The RBA Board are seen as a conservative bunch and for Ms Rideout to venture into a Union delegates conference as a new appointee to the RBA Board – must have raised some eyebrows. We live in changing times and this visible connection between the AWU and a RBA Board member sends a message that reeks of some many bad things … RBA’s mushroom thinking: The RBA’s inflation targeting is a leftover from the late 80’s and early 90’s where inflation killed the economy and prompted Keating to confess the famous words: ‘the recession we had to have’. Interest rates during that period were pushing 20% and in some cases went above for higher risk Bank clients. Federal Government bonds underpinned the market and were above 14%, State borrowings where higher and the lesson learned was that inflation was the enemy. It no longer is – yet the RBA modelling as with all Treasury thinking remains entrapped in an economic management mindset that has long ago since progressed to different market conditions and with a different focus. It’s now a global market where ‘hot’ money floats around the globe looking for weak regulatory controls and Central Banks stuck in the dark-age thinking – all with the intention of exploitation the local economies. Australia is one such plum picking – we are 23 million people, yet China has for 20 years used its pegged currency to create its transition into a super power of economic activity. Swan and his Treasury and RBA minions take pride in a floating currency – yet history tells us that under a fixed currency system before 1983 – the Government made decisions to ‘devalue’ and never to revalue. There is knowledge in that history – but dumbass bureaucrats think they know better. The world now trades in things like labour costs, value added and that is all to do with currency value. Jobs being exported offshore are about domestic costs verses international costs. For years our Current Account has imported that cheap labour to our shores via cheaper imports … nobody ever though that the end game would be loss of jobs here. The catalyst is currency value. At A$0.75c we were competitive with the rest of our trading partners. With a currency value at or near parity, we have gifted our competitors a 35% discount – i.e. we are now 35% more expensive to deal with. Australia is none of these things, and both sides of politics do not support currency intervention, nor other tariff, or excise policies to combat the trade wars that have eroded A$ trillions in export revenues over the last 10 odd years. If inflation is to be controlled by interest rate targeting, why is it that 0% interest rates in Japan for 20 odd years has never caused inflation? Why is it that with 0% interest rates in the US, and other major economies they don’t have an inflation problem? Since the GFC inflation is nowhere to be seen in the Nth Hemisphere. Inflation is no longer the enemy. A Case Study – Japan’s need for Inflation: Japan came out late last year telling the world it was going to buy inflation and would do everything to devalue their currency, and lift inflation to 2% and above. See Bloomberg story on-line here. The Nikkei Index rose from the 9,000 levels to just under 16,000, before a near 2000 point sell-off last week on the back of comments made from Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Given where the Nikkei has been over the last 20 odd years – it was above 37,000 in the early 1990’s – this recent rally since last November was again all speculation. What goes up will come down in market speak. On the back of this stimulus, the ¥Yen has reversed its modern day strength. See short term chart below: [See 1yr and 10 year charts above. These Charts courtesy of Incredible Charts.] 10 Year Chart:
1 Year Chart:
Not only have Japan printed billions of currency for stimulus purposes, they have also entered the market to sell their currency against a long term trend of appreciation against all major currencies. [See currency charts below.]
Short term ¥Yen currency value against the US$ – showing recent inteventions.
Charts courtesy of www.tradingeconomics.com The long term strength of the ¥Yen has been the reason for their economic ‘stagnation’. Enough is enough the Japanese Leadership have said. Wait – it gets better, look at the last few quarters of GDP growth, [Source http://www.TradingEconomics.com ], and the Debt/GDP numbers over the last 25 odd years in the Chart below. [click to enlarge]
Summary of Japan’s actions: Never underestimate what Government spending can do to hold up an economy. Japan’s DEBT/GDP will explode is the Japanese themselves don’t start to spend domestically. The Japanese are playing a very dangerous game with risks beyond what the GFC delivered. Japan and the rest of the world are in a trade war with China and their pegged currency. Recent mumblings from around the world support Japan, Germany announce yesterday their own abandonment of austerity in favour of investing in Southern Europe … read that story here … snippet posted below:
The World is in one giant poker game – and a few players have gone ‘all-in’ on weak hands. Stand back and watch the carnage unfold. CPI v Interest Rates: No – the reason the RBA keeps interest rates at a margin above the major trading partners is to attract capital … and Australia’s mortgage holders pay the price via higher mortgage costs as a result. It’s been said many times here before – the rest of the world has a siphon hose plugged into Australia’s back door raping and pillaging our wealth to feed the carpetbaggers of the investment world. Australian home-owners are the ones paying the price for the RBA’s incompetence over their High A$ policy and the higher interest rates applicable in this Nation compared with the rest of our major competitors. Inflation is as good an indicator for the future in this post GFC global marketplace as a barren cow, and it’s about time the RBA and Treasury got out of its own way and figured it out for themselves. Because Inflation is an RBA charter, the modelling for Budget forecasts assumes the RBA targeting will get it right most of the time, and with that brilliant foresight the Treasury modelling bank the RBA’s targeted inflation rate into their forecasts.
In the CPI Table at right – you can see the stoic numbers and it makes you wonder why the Treasury bureaucrats are paid the big bucks. Look at the forecasts and see how often Mr Swan signed off on correct results. Since 2007-08 there is not one forecast number within 20% of the actual results. Most are over 50% in error and some well over 100% … is there any wonder the budget results are $290 billion out from forecasts … The record of actuals verses forecasts would make anyone who believed Mr Swan’s budget forecasts across all his last six Budgets some sort of fool. If Business made investment decisions based on the biggest business in town – i.e. the Federal Government expenditure spend, there would be some busted up businesses. Given all that has been said in these series of post about how the RBA targets Inflation – you would think they would be good at it. The Budget forecasts when stacked up against the actual results suggest poor performance that has contributed to the budget errors. Look at every year in the CPI Table at right and you will see the variances in each and every year. The RBA suck at forecasting CPI … and the budget framework around the CPI targeting would be blown apart by the errors in these actuals verses forecast numbers. Nobody doubts the global economic conditions are tough to predict. The GFC has played havoc since 2008 and will continue to do so. But when a Central Bank uses interest rates to crush any sign of inflation – getting the inflation targeting comes with a high price for failure. Some of the forecasts in the Table are out by well over 100% when measured against the actual result. This is poor form and unforgivable in economic terms. Across all the years since 2007-08, there is only one forecast that is out by a minimum of 25% – every other number is out by 50% or more, and more than half the revision forecasts are still out by 100%. Whatever credence the Treasury places on CPI in its modelling – do they know or realise the historical errors in past forecasts, and do they load the budget with this knowledge?
To help with the visual of the CPI Table data at right, the above chart – [click to enlarge] – plots Government Expenditure growth year on year as a percentage, plotted against the CPI annual rate. The chart below [click to enlarge to get a better perspective of this chart] – is a very good chart to show how Government Expenditures and Revenues have grown Year on Year – verses the Annual CPI, with mean average for Revenues, [8.12%] and Expenditure, [7.80%] growth since 1981 – plotted as a straight line in the chart below.
CPI is a very important number – Economic Trigger rated 6 out of 10 where currency is the 10/10 benchmark. But when the RBA get is so wrong and it is their main charter – blame is due where mistakes are made and the RBA have to wear their share. This does not let Mr Swan off the hook. He is in a position to make decisions about all the Economic Triggers – the fact that he has sat on his hands over the Currency proves his understanding is not in the same league of the off-shore players raping and pillaging this Nation through currency based trading. In the next Chapter the Unemployment ‘Economic Trigger’ is examined. |
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EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 -
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– 28th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget - A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.2 - – 27th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 – – 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – – 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government – – 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making. – 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up – – 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ – – 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ – – 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot – – 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster – – 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity – – 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations - – 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ – To see more GURU posts: – click here … |
Title: – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – – The Economic Triggers Part 2.3 – | Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 28th May 2013 | |
Links to previous posts in this series about – “The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget” – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report:
Chapter list in this Post:
Chapter 7: Swan’s Budgets: The economic triggers talked about in this post form the pillars of any budget process – Government or Private Sector. As sure as night follows day and the sun shines, budgets will always be the foundations from whence all economic prosperity flows. And so it is with bad budgets … Researches and Budget framers can only use the evidence of trends from past performances. It is a case of having one eye focused on the future looking for bumps and freeways, half-an-eye on the now making sure that the forecasts are on track, and the other half-an-eye looking at the past looking for trends that might guide you to better decisions for the now and future. Notes on the Source data: This Economic Trigger research is an extensive extraction of Swan Budget ‘forecasts’ measured against ‘actual results’. A lot of the research information comes from the Federal Budgets on-line source. Links to each Year’s Budget – www.budget.gov.au – for each of the forecast periods are provided below, with a separate link to display an Image file of the Budget forecast summary:
Analysis of the extracted data can only question Treasury’s modelling outcomes. Treasury consistently failed to predict the excess ‘revenues’ of the Howard era, and now they have overestimated ‘revenues’ and underestimated ‘expenditures’ all during the Rudd/Gillard years. Historical Budget Outcomes 1996-2012: The variance in Budget result – i.e. ‘actuals’, verses the Budget ‘forecasts’ since 1996 is plotted in the Chart below.
The Table at right is the data used in the previous chart. The ‘Revenue’ variances of 2011 [12.94%] and 2012 [11.24%] appear well out of range with other ‘Revenue’ results – except for the 1999 Asian crisis where Costello saw revenue and expenditures actuals both come in at a bit over -11%. The ‘Expense’ variance numbers up to 2007-08 show plus and minus results ranging from +6.3% to -4.26%. What is notable is the ‘Expense’ average of the Howard years is -1.87%. By comparison the Rudd/Gillard tenure has ‘Expense’ variances averaging 3.24% The ‘Revenue’ averaged for the Howard years is -0.41%, as opposed to the Rudd/Gillard years at -5.56%. Without doubt the Treasury modelling under the Swan era has increased its error ranking by a factor of 498% – i.e. sum of Swan variances [-8.9%] / sum of Costello variances [-1.79%]. The harsh reality is the raw numbers for the Costello tenure accounted for a cumulative Budget result amounting to A$53 billion in surpluses, and the Swan results are A$135 billion of deficits. This bottom line result of these two numbers of $188 billion has cause. But if we are to believe Mr Swan’s excuses in the last few years it has been because of ‘revenue write-downs’. The Table and Chart prove that Mr Swan has a completely different reason for his budgetary errors, and they are not because Treasury Modelling is solely to blame. Chapter 8: Budget Modelling: The main triggers used to formulate the Federal Budget modelling are listed below – Economic Triggers: [Each of the Triggers listed below have been rated – “TR” = Trigger Rating – and measures the indicator and its influence on economic and Budgetary outcomes – the ranking is out of 10. Links for each Trigger to Wikipedia, ABS, RBA, or other source as provided.]
The ‘triggers’ used in this research all feed to Revenues, Expenditures, Debt, and when considered in the modelling phase of the Budget process. The forecasts are influenced by Government decisions and choices made about existing and new policy’s. Ultimately the Government is responsible for the Budget errors – yet, as history shows there is never any real accountability for retrospective errors. All budget integrity is contained within their forecasts and estimates, i.e. the probable, versus the improbable, versus the impossible. Mr Swan’s budget forecasts are mostly about the impossible. If the Government wants an outcome that the modelling cannot come up with, how does a Government go about get the result it needs to fund the policies they want to implement? It is not hard to draw an argument that PM Gillard had an agenda based on election promises in the 2010 election. The most famous being the ‘No Carbon Tax’ and the new ‘MRRT’. Swans biggest forecast errors came in the 2010-11, and the 2011-12 budgets, and all on the revenue side. Swan’s claims that the budget result went into tailspin deficits based of revenue expectations not being met, has face value creditability. But to accept this reasoning you have to believe that the revenue forecasts were reasonable and achievable to begin with. The Table summary above proves that the consistency of errors on both sides of the budget make Mr Swan’s revenue expectations in the budgetary ‘impossible’ category. When a Government promises a Budget surplus as iron-clad and as far out as PM Gillard and Treasurer Swan did in the 2010-11 budget, what can they do when it comes to 2012-13 budget time and the expenditures are locked in and already spent? When the new ‘MRRT’ and ‘Carbon Tax’ fail to deliver the expected forecasts revenues, and the political equation in admitting to a failed ‘budget surplus’ promise means an even more woeful poll response, the craven way out is to blame the Treasury modelling. This Government has fudged the numbers and proving it will be no easy feat. Someone in Treasury knows what’s going on and has help.
Table 1: Economic Trigger Forecasts v Actuals. [click Table to enlarge in a new browser window – previously displayed in Post – Part 2.2] This Table at right as previously stated provides the ‘actuals’ versed ‘forecast’ numbers for the Economic Triggers used in the Budget modelling for all Federal Budgets, and most other public and private budgets as well. Table 1’s set of numbers represent the most sensitive triggers, CPI, Un-employment, GDP, Terms of Trade, and Current Account. The Federal Budget forward estimates over each of the next four years are derived from these numbers. Mr Swan knows the Treasury Modelling is unique and not property held outside the public domain. He knows to try and duplicate how Treasury modelling use each of the economic indicators in Budget forecasting is a fool’s errand. So why do this research you might ask? As a moral exercise or challenge for each and everyone of us, It is important if you see something wrong or bad happening and you can do something about it, expose it, or report the problem. Our integrity and moral compass is guided by Societies expectations and those who can make a difference should do so. Walking away is the same as agreeing to what is happening … and so it is when apathy becomes the problem. This Nation needs is more fixers and doers, not charlatans and pretenders fudging their way with no experience or understanding of their portfolio construct and responsibilities. When Swan delivered his 2013-14 budget estimates/forecasts 14th May 2013, do you think he went back and looked at his 2009, ’10, ’11, and ’12 estimates/forecasts, and compared the actual outcomes with the past forecasts? Do you think he pondered just how bad his Treasury Modelling performs? Indicators like ‘Nominal GDP’ have appeared in Swan’s budget papers, yet were not even a part of the forecast in the Budget papers under Costello in 2007-08. Chapter 9: Budget Revenues –
2008: Revenues: This was Swan’s first Budget and there may have been some expectation overflow from the Costello era the surpluses would just keep rolling in. The variances against expectations were significant – -6.4%, -13.1%, -13.9% and -7.8%. 2008 – Expenditures: The same with the Expenditures – the actuals exceeded the estimates by -11%, -9.2%, -7.1% and -11.4%. Add them together and the yearly estimates were, -17.4%, -22.3%, -21%, and -19.2%, 2009 – Revenues: The Revenue actuals hit close to target in 09-10, and 10-11, but had Costello type windfalls in 10-11, and 11-12. 2009 – Expenditures: As much as the revenues exceeded targets, the expenditures pretty much ran the other way for similar amounts. This budget was delivered in May ’09 after the worst of the GFC. 2010 – Revenues: The over-estimate errors returned for the Revenue. This was an Election budget and good forecasts were political capital. 2010 – Expenditures: Expenditures all over the place with over and under estimates of significant percentages recorded on the two completed years. The cumulative sum of errors over the two completed years in percentage terms was 17.2% against forecasts. This was an Election budget and good forecasts were political capital. 2011 – Revenues: Only a single year of actuals are in – and again the forecasts were over-estimated. 2011 – Expenditures: The same happened with Expenditures and the result was almost identical. and Expenditures for error factors yields margins of error if applied to any family budget would cause weekly chaos. Summary: 2008-09 was the GFC year and some budget estimate errors had to be expected for the forecasts made in the 2008-09 against actuals. But by 2009-10 the currency had recovered, and China was buying our minerals as fast as we could ship them. Australia had escaped the worst of the GFC yet the Rudd/Gillard and Swan teams continued with a spending spree that lasted well into 2011-12 budget cycle. How Governments responded to the GFC was natural order in their want to protect what has been a way of life for western society for many decades. Governments wanted to protect the corrupted Banking systems, the Corporate raiders, and the Government gravy ride. Global Leaders were not prepared to make the hardest decision in a half a century and the globe will suffer at least another 10 years of economic hardship as a result. Chapter 10: Economic Triggers – Real and Nominal GDP:
The 2008-09 Budget predicted the following growth forecasts:
These forecasts when matched with the ‘actual’ numbers in each of the years passed yield the following outcomes:
… these variance numbers, i.e. +.03%, +1.55%, -1.0%, +0.4%, don’t mean a lot when taken in isolation as Treasury Head Dr Martin Parkinson spoke about in his Treasury response to criticism of the latest budget. See his speech here. However – when the error factor multiplier is used to theorise about how a +1.55% becomes a 207% error, these variances impacts exponentially on CPI, revenues, expenditures, unemployment, interest rates, household consumption, and a host of other economic indicator outcomes. Dr Parkinson’s flippant dismissal of the modelling errors is an indication of just how complacent the budget process has become. Another way to view the Treasury Departments modelling is to say that the numbers being produced cannot be trusted any more. Good number increases for ‘GDP Growth’ and the ‘Terms of Trade’, as opposed to bad number increases in ‘Unemployment’ and ‘Current Account’, have the potential to produce ‘actuals’ that impact on all the other budget forecasts. For example the 2009-10 GDP forecasts were revised from the 2008-09 budget estimates as follows:
This analysis and the more to follow is complex and in a world with an attention span of a millisecond – this commentary means what to who? To most people it’s ‘jack-shit’ … who in their right mind would do this type of research … well there are people who live for these sorts of equations and number extractions, and particularly so when they contain misrepresentations that allows a Government to perpetrate a continuing fraud on the Australian people. Mr Swan has to take responsibility for his poor forecasts … he signs off on the budget numbers. Anything less diminishes his office and weakens Treasury creditability. In the next Chapters more ‘Economic Triggers’ are examined. |
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