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EYE-BALL Opinion – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice –

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– 28th Mar – Apathy – Australian’s have it in spades and deservedly so –


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Title:
– Budget 2013-14 –
– Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice –
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 11th May 2013 |
Next Tuesday is 2013-14 Budget night. The Opposition had indicated that it intended to bring a ‘no-confidence’ motion in the Government before the House on the same day.

Reports out yesterday from Independent Rob Oakeshott calling for a ‘put-up’, or ‘shut-up’ decision from Mr Abbott in regards to the motion have drawn a blank.

Opinion is that Abbott will not pursue the motion on the resumption of Parliament, but keep his powder dry to gauge reaction to the Swan Budget. In other words – why waste a bullet when the recipient is gonna die anyway. See ABC media story her …

This Budget has been a long time coming – remember 12 months ago when the House heckled Swan when he announced the 2012-13 forecast as a $1.5 billion surplus, along with another 3 years of forecast budget surplus’.   See YouTube clip below to refresh the memory …

Swan mentions $150 billion revenue writedowns since the GFC cause and effect. The lie in the illusion created within Swans’s own imagination is revealed to those who want to deal in facts – revenues since 2008 have grown year on year at:

  • 2008-09 – Rudd … -(1.57%)
  • 2009-10 – Rudd … -(2.06%)
  • 2010-11 – Gillard … +5.85%
  • 2011-12 – Gillard … +9.11%
  • 2012-13 – Gillard … +11.23% (Budgeted)
  • 2013-14 – Gillard … we’ll know next week

See Table and Chart link here to verify these numbers.

So, when Swan claims $150 billion in expected revenues have been lost due to the GFC – the cold hard facts reveal that in the period 1996-2013 – the average revenue growth has been 7.02% largely influenced by the 2006-07 growth of 12.97%, and 2007-08 of 19.21% under Howard’s last years.

Leaving out the GFC impact of the 2008-09, and 2009-10 years where revenue growth was negative – Gillard’s tenure has seen average growth of 8.73% – comfortable above the average of the last 16+ years.

Swan has no creditability in his claim – we knew it then and we know it now. Even this year revenue gas still grown at above 7% which is trend growth but less than Swan’s 2012-13 Budget forecast. To claim revenue writedowns to revenues that were overstated in the first place, and done so for political gain so the ‘budget surplus’ promised for 4 years could at least appear to have been delivered as promised, was a statement delivered to the House full of lies and deceit, and deliberately so intended to mislead the House.

See link here to watch and hear Swan make his Budget Surplus backflip speech – or watch clip below:

When was the last time a Treasurer got it so horribly wrong, and what price did he or the Government pay.

In fact – Terry McCrann wrote an article asking why Wayne Swan should not be sacked … linked here … – or read below:

Deluded Treasury counts catastrophic follies


| Author: Terry McCrann | Date: May 11th, 2013 | Link to On-Line Story. |


THE great and perhaps only remaining puzzle about Tuesday’s budget is why on earth is it being presided over by Wayne Swan and Martin Parkinson?

Why haven’t the Treasurer and his Treasury secretary long already departed in embarrassment, after their separate, joint, and catastrophic errors?

Or, given the clear indication that they have not the slightest sense of shame, far less any conception of taking responsibility for their actions or of their department, been sacked? The Treasurer, by the Prime Minister. The secretary, by the Treasurer as his last service to the nation, or by his successor.

May 2013 should mark the date when we finally jumped the shark in terms of ministerial and bureaucratic responsibility. After this, there can be no basis again for ever sacking a minister or a department head for gross incompetence. Personally, or by the department of which they were responsible.

The Treasurer should go after the disastrous forecasts and assumptions on which his budget was based. It is absolutely fundamental to understand that this is not just a matter of getting forecasts wrong in a volatile and uncertain world.

Goodness me, we wouldn’t have a single market economist left if that were the test. It is that those forecasts were unrealistic and worse, amateurish from the start. And, critically, they led the government to — or perhaps, didn’t dissuade it from — major policy and political mistakes.

It’s surprising that the Prime Minister hasn’t already taken her cue from the iconic rant by Peter Finch’s character, Howard Beale, in the movie Network. That she’s “as mad as hell (with the Treasurer and Treasury) and . . . is not going to take it any more (from them)”.

She’s already the PM from broken promise la-la land. Thanks to the duo of Swan and Parkinson, she’s had to break a few more. Who’s going to be carrying the can for them over the next four months?

Oh yes, I forgot. She takes her cue — plural, cues — from the present-day character Paul Howes. As I wrote a year ago the budget’s projected “return” to surplus was built on an extraordinary projected $39 billion single-year surge in revenue and a series of fiddles to push spending out of the current year.

But, even so, it would almost certainly stay in deficit. The government bases the now certain (biggish) deficit outcome on a combination of two linked forces: that the terms of trade had fallen more than expected and that nominal GDP had actually grown slower than real GDP. Thereby slashing expected revenues.

Both are tendentious and actually an admission of basic incompetence.

The terms of trade have come off their peak but are still near century-high levels. Indeed, they have arguably stayed higher than what might reasonably have been predicted a year ago.

The same goes for the related nominal-real GDP claim. It is in essence to state that Treasury simply wasn’t competent enough to see that coming.

The projected revenue surge was quite simply built on absurdly optimistic assumptions about capital gains and company tax, to say nothing of the overestimates for the mining tax. And a certain Canberra-naivety about how the world actually works.

Surely you don’t mean taxpayers will try to minimise surging tax bills? It is this that actually damns Treasury and its secretary more than the poor hapless sod who opened his budget speech 12 months ago with “the four years of surpluses I announce tonight . . .” For Treasury didn’t just cock-up its budget forecast but its modelling on which the government’s whole carbon tax and climate change policy, and fiscal actions, was erected.

Remember the PM, the Treasurer, the Climate Change Minister, all chorusing again and again: we stand by the Treasury modelling? The Treasury modelling that enabled them to link our emissions trading scheme to Europe’s, confident that when we joined in 2015 the price would be $29 a tonne? And the revenue such a price would generate, underwrote all the budget handouts — sorry, compensation? But in any event, there’d be no problem as the budget would be comfortably back in the black, confident in the Treasury modelling?

Now as the price wallows around $6 a tonne, and the government — and Treasury? — pray that it gets back to somewhere like at least $15 — what about all the rest of the Treasury climate change modelling?

The modelling that told us that we could abandon our most fundamental national comparative advantage — cheap, reliable, plentiful coal-fired electricity — and the economy would hardly miss a beat?

In very simple terms, both Parkinson and his predecessor Ken Henry drank the climate crazies’ Kool-Aid, and poured it into the Treasury computers. Arguably worse, they had utterly no conception of the cynical — centuries-old — game being played by Europe; the one place on the planet, apart from ultra-naive Australia, that set about limiting emissions of carbon dioxide.

Europe rigged Kyoto to get a running start to the CO2 “cuts” with the closure of heavy industry in the former Eastern Europe. And now as that advantage is running out, when push is coming to shove on keeping the lights on, Europe is racing back to coal-fired power.

Incredibly, these two themes were — as I wrote last year — actually brought together in last year’s budget, with two of arguably the most ludicrous charts ever seen in such a document.

The first blithely projected the “return to surplus” with four long bars below the line adding to $174bn of real, actual, delivered deficits — and then four very short bars above the line of fantasy, projected, tomorrow tiny surpluses.

The second purported to project the change in Australia’s electricity generation mix between 2011 and 2050, that by 2050 we could get barely 8 per cent from coal, from today’s 70 per cent.

As I wrote, the two graphs joined to “announce, indeed even boast, how the Gillard-Swan government has lost all touch with reality. How Julia and Wayne have taken up residence in a cottage of the mind called Self-Delusion, closed all the shutters and drawn the blinds.”

But even more disturbing, we had “a Treasury which inhabits some parallel universe that operates disconnected from reason”. And on to Tuesday.

You all do get it right – Swan is the worst Treasurer ever – just as George Bush Jnr was the worst US President ever.

He is just a mouth-piece to a message that speaks for Union solidarity.  Swan is no more a Treasurer than Gillard a Prime Minister – yet they both hold the office …

On the strength of Swan’s prophecies announced in his 2012-13 speech – will he account for the mistakes make other than to repeat the ‘revenue’ writedowns, and the ‘impact of the high A$’?

Will he admit his, and his Governments error(s)?

Will there be accountability in present day reality of having made statements they have no basis in fact 12 months since?

That continues to be Australia’s pain and it is about time that the electorate with little interest in politics realise that their apathy allows this Nation to be taken down a path to self-destruction.

The ALP will not shoot itself – it will be up to us to put these fake pretenders beyond the grave.

The 2013-14 Budget:

How will the reality of facing a $20 billion plus deficit only 12 months after the fact impact on Swan’s confidence to yet again lie and mislead the House?

The chart at right shows the debt owed trend since Rudd was elected – [click to enlarge in a new window.]

This chart is no different to all the other Nations who all used quantitive easing in the face of the GFC crisis, and now have crippling debt/GDP ratios that have mortally wounded their capacity to survive.

Australia is following the same path, yet Swan argues that because our Debt/GDP ration is not as bad as the rest, we have somehow been saved and all to his good management.  Nothing could be further from the truth.   Blind luck saved Australia in the form of China and their demand for our resources.  That is now at an end and been so for some time.

Swan knows little of new age economics and the ‘global trade’ war that has been waged for the last 10 years or so – all done in silent and all done via currency value and the shift in global investment within Nations where unsuspecting politicians mistake the ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’.  Off-shoe investment comes with a price – Swan and the RBA forgot to ask what that entrance cost was.

Swan promised 4 years of budget surpluses in 2012-13.  The talk since the Dec ’12 surplus backflip has escalated across the forward estimates to now give us a softening blow that suggests any surplus promised is now gone.

Swan will pull a rabbit or two – he can;t help himself – he will make statements to the fact that despite all the doom and gloom, Australia is still the lucky Nation and our future is safest under a Labor Government.

Swan talks from a pulpit that has him on a lifetime taxpayer-funded parliamentary pension annuity with a value somewhere near $6-$7 million.  Gillard has the same pension scheme.

If Swan were to say that because of the mistakes he has made, he is forfeiting his pension and donating it back to Treasury,  would it be a fair exchange?

Hardly – when poor and rotten Leadership costs a Nation Trillions in past future prosperity because of the policies they enacted against those they should have enacted – who pays the price?

We elected these Leaders – and yes the minority Government where Windsor and Oakeshott control the fate was not an ideal outcome.  It is a lesson to every Australian, there are dire consequences involved when apathy rules and the political choices people make.

 


The EYE-BALL Opinion plea for action:

A Note:  This site is dedicated to having Gillard as Prime Minster removed by all legal means in the shortest timeframe possible.

Gillard’s Government is poison to this Nation … how do we get rid of her now?

The message has to be sent – there are some 14 million registered voters represented by 150 MP’s – 72 of which are ALP.    If each of these 72 ALP MP’s received an e-mail, a fax, a phone call, or a letter from all the people who want her gone with a simple message like the one below –  :

This is a protest message …
GET RID OF GILLARD

… do you think it might motivate caucus …

Please – send this message to as many and as often as you can – bombard the Caucus Members with a message so clear and with weight of numbers that it will force them to act.

You could also think about sending it to the Independents, Oakeshott, Windsor, Wilkie, and Brandt,  as well … Katter already votes with the Coalition, and Slipper and Thompson are a lost cause and their fate already sealed.

Links to every MP e-mail can be found using the Australian Parliamentary Website Members and Senator links below … pick your ALP MP or Senator, or send it to all – voice your opinion now.

Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thankyou.


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.

Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s


The EYE-BALL Opinion …

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