Home > Politics - Domestic, The EYE-BALL Herman O'HERMITAGE > EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Wayne Swan – Please Stop

EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Wayne Swan – Please Stop

March 7, 2013
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Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:


7th Mar – The Australian Labor Party View


– 28th Feb – Corruption


– 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination


– 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism


– 12th Nov – Hegemony


– 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election


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Title:
– Wayne Swan – Please stop …
| Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 7th Mar 2013 |
Nominal v Real GDP is now the culprit for the Federal budget deficit in financial year ending June 2013 (not economic mismanagement). A year where it was cast in stone that the government would return the budget to surplus.

Nominal GDP is at current prices, while Real GDP attempts to adjust for constant prices to measure economic growth without inflation included. There is always a statistical error, in any process but that is a whole different story in math.

I am just sick and tired of the blatant dishonesty. Before last July the mining industry forecast MRRT payable way below Treasury estimates of their receipts. So who is right?

The Treasurer is trying to call the roller coaster ride in spot iron ore prices, real GDP, and other observable indicators like National Accounts nominal GDP. The Treasurer wants to take credit for 3.1% year on year GDP growth released in the National Accounts, but disown the revenue shortfalls on profit based taxes. He admits about 20% of the shortfall is in MRRT. This only makes things worse. Tax Planning is constantly eroding Government revenues, and what are the financial bureaucrats doing about it?

This can all only mean;

  1. Stop treating the constituency as fools.
  2. This chaos is of your own design and making,
  3. The Treasury is using models that are not risk adjusted, they are not only not working, they are from the last century.

The constituency perceives that you are totally inept. No argument will sway that perception. Those on most modest incomes are marginalised, brought to the lowest common denominator, why should I try? Those paying their taxes fairly (they can’t afford fancy tax planning) suffer while those who control massive franchises, pay elective taxes.

This election can’t come fast enough.

Link to transcript of Wayne Swan’s Press Conference re the National Accounts figures out yesterday.

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EYE-BALL’s ‘Herman’ …

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  1. March 7, 2013 at 8:03 am

    The Swan Spin … or put another way – Swan reading from a Treasury script thathe has no understanding of …

    … I just want to go through some of the detail because there are a lot of cross currents in the data that’s before you today. As I said, quarterly, 0.6 per cent, and over the year 3.1 per cent. This outcome reflects a surge in export volumes, a lift in new business investment, modest consumption growth and a recovery in dwelling investment. Exports grew by a strong 3.3 per cent in the quarter which is the second-fastest quarterly increase in almost a decade. This result was driven by sharp increases in coal and iron ore export volumes even though there were lower commodity prices and those lower prices have hit profitability. So what we are starting to see here is the upswing in the next phase of the mining boom, what we call the export phase, as projects ramp up and go into production. … …continues …

    The political spin is gift wrapped in the language above … volumes up … revenue down …. only one reason the value of the A$ … the blaming of Iorn Ore prices is political spin … see Iron Ore 10yr monthly chart in US$ here …

    Great post Herman.

  2. Gerry Hatrick
    March 7, 2013 at 8:45 am

    This insight is now so clearly linked to Victorian branch of the Liberal Party upheaval, Ted Bailleau’s resignation and the elevation of Denis Napthine. Much questioning, doubt and speculation continues

    Victorian GDP is contracting. Victoria represents the former Australia, based on manufacturing, pastoral, and services. Their mining is tiny comparatively, mainly brown coal for electricity generation. (A touch more of gold and just as many highly competitive sectors). Loss of jobs at Altona or anywhere else, hurts.

    For me the real issue is integrity.

    Ted Bailleau referred one of his most senior staffers this week to IVAC. Then there is this Jeff Shaw see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoff_Shaw_%28politician%29

    Jeff Shaw has all the characteristics of of we observed in NSW State ALP when in government, hardly clean and taking advantage through his office. He has rattled the Victorian Liberal Party by going to the cross benches when they are clinging on by the skin of their teeth. Poor judgement, and narcissistic.

    It is hard to know what might eventuate when Victoria is not due to go to the polls before Nov 2014. Should the State Branch choose to make an example over abuse of trust, and cronyism it could affect the Federal equation. Should they attempt to sweep it under the carpet, it would hurt their image as an alternative to the cronyism of the Federal Government.

    Up to you Kevin Andrews.

  3. March 7, 2013 at 10:55 am

    A sinister twist – the AWU investigation under a Coalition Governemnt as opposed to a ALP opposition … if the Coalition falls due to the change of Leadership and defection of Jeff Shaw … what will happen to the almost complete AWU police investigation …

  4. Gerry Hatrick
    March 7, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    Geoff Shaw is a strange dilemma. I read this as a ultra right move with the Victorian Branch against the moderates. The Simon Overland sacking is nearly as hard to fathom. I perceive Bailleau as a moderate. I expect Napthine to play harder at COAG. Former Premier Kennett has recently attacked Bailleau (old friends) and now the business council. If Shaw was to cross the floor it would be bloody.

    The other really hard part to get my head around, is yesterday Victoria officially joined Tas and SA as being in recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). Why then is Western Sydney so critical to the Federal ALP? Could it be they have written off SA, Tas, and Vic? Their efforts in Western Sydney are an attempt to maintain any respect whatsoever? Vic ALP has been dominant save for the Henry Bolte years. The fact that the PM’s own seat is in Vic, tends to help the incumbent. Kennett was thrown out, unceremoniously.

    From the video of Swan linked above, notice the ebullience of the treasurer early, twist to don’t believe under questions (under fire). What a goose. He is not only delusional, but also deluded.

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