EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – The Economic Triggers Part 2.1-
|Latest GURU Posts:
– 18th May – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part I –
– 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making.
– 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up –
– 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ –
– 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ –
– 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot –
– 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster –
– 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 – the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity –
– 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ –
To see more GURU posts: – click here …
– The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget –
– A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report –
– The Economic Triggers Part 2.1 –
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 27th May 2013 |
|Apologies to all subscribers and readers for the absence of new posts in the last 10 or so days.Thanks to Herman for stepping up with his posts to keep the site active.
That time has been spend doing some really exacting research on Mr Swan’s latest and previous budgets. The first installment of that research is presented below – all with the focus of exposing an ongoing ‘fraud’ on the Australian people.
The research will be available in a Word/PDF file once completed, but to get some of the data out there, what follows is the first the Chapters.
List of Chapters in this Post:
Part I of this EYE-BALL Guru expose titled – … The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 – linked on-line here …
… offered opinion about Wayne Swan’s past Budget outcomes, the continuing deficits, and the now more deficits against what was 12 months ago to be three more years of surpluses.
Part II of this expose is further commentary based on research into the Economic Indicators used to help frame this and past Budgets. The research delves into forecast values, and their accuracy when compared with actual results. It also goes into the relative importance of individual economic triggers and how they are used by Treasury Modelling to frame the Budget forecasts.
The research will provide ample evidence to allow the conclusion that Mr Swan’s budgets have been less than honest with the numbers, and how politicisation of the Budget forecasts has put at risk the confidence of the Nation’s population and Business Leaders.
The 2013-14 Budget: –
Included are a great number of Tables and Charts, with Internal and External links to help navigate you to the source material.
Each Table and Chart has context if only to demonstrate the truthfulness in numbers, and how they are presented by those who would use them to cloud and confuse.
If you are interested in finance and economics then you will be challenged by the read. If you are a novice then this ‘heads-up’ is to prepare yourself to be surprised.
Australian’s must be made aware just what has happened to this Nation’s finances – Treasurer Swan, Prime Minister Gillard, and her team have perpetrated a purposeful ‘fraud’ on the Australian people, and it is not just about the ‘Carbon Tax’ lie.
Six consecutive budgets from Wayne Swan have sent this Nation into near actual $300 billion in new debt, and after the 2013-14 Budget, that forecast is pushing towards $350 billion.
This despite Treasurer Swan’s assurances of four consecutive budget surpluses in his 2012-13 Budget. This turn around and uncertainty leaves the Nation and Business leaders confused about future business plans.
This is a serious attempt to prove a ‘fraud’ as there can be … please read it in with a sponge like mind whether you be a Labour, a Greens, Independent, or Coalition supporter. Please feel free to pass it on to others.
Purpose and Overview:
There has never been a time during this generation where the pressure to get the economics of an economy right has been as fraught with uncertainty, and a lack of conviction from Global Leadership that they know how to fix the GFC aftermath.
Since the GFC – Superpowers have continued to print money to protect their Nations financial stability – all the time fast-tracking their economies into more dangerous waters. The debt solution has compounded the reasons for the GFC in the first place – an abundance of Government and Private sector debt that had become increasingly ‘higher-risk’. It was only a matter of time before the risk in owning such debt became a ‘risk’ that nobody wanted. This created the ‘sub-prime’ crisis where the debt was ‘rated’ by Ratings Agency as ‘AAA’, yet carried a ‘CCC’ credit worthiness.
It was a toxic virus shoved into the financial markets with no known ‘anti-virus’ cure. It bought the global financial markets to a shuttering halt as Nations, Banks, and merchants refused to trust one another. Credit dried up, and Central Banks faced with a complete melt down did what they have always done since the 1987 crash – flooded the markets with cheap cash to again induce investors to take risks with a cost of borrowed funds near 0%.
In the aftermath of the Lehman Bros collapse that ignited the focus on the ‘Sub-Prime’ derivative Goldman Sachs trashed to save themselves – and as portrayed in the 2011 movie “Margin Call” with Jeremy Irons and Simon Baker, the global financial system would and should have failed.
The actions of Governments to save the markets from a complete collapse came from a ‘panic and desperation’ response by regulators who never saw the collapse coming.
The bailout came via Quantitative Easing policies delivered as each previous stimulus failed and more was needed. The rest of the world followed suit.
With hindsight knowledge – it could now be called the ‘Dumb and Dumber’ bailout as the wastage and abuse by the Banks to protect their balance sheets and viability meant the money being handed out never got to the end borrowers trying to save their business’s.
That all happened in early 2009 and continued in the years since.
The flood of money is still chasing the globe looking for returns as Central Banks continue to charge near 0% costs.
As a result large and structural aftershocks are still building pressures for the next ‘big-one’. New record highs in the DOW is a false dawn … new money flowing out of low yielding assets into better yielding equities is a sigh of the investment world desperate to make profits. ‘Risk’ is now back on the investment agenda.
The ‘Greek’ and other P.I.G.S. Eurozone bailouts are ongoing eruptions and will continue to bleed resources dry from surviving economies.
Governments, Central Banks, are exhausted – they realise more debt is wasteful.
Greedy buccaneer type Bankers who are back to their owl ways of mega bonuses and shady deals take no prisoners – it is these types who own the true responsibility for the GFC meltdown. That is of course if you don’t count the Regulators asleep on the job over the last 30 odd years.
And yet – in the four years since the GFC, the Bankers at the heart of the ‘sup-prime’ fraud have yet to be found accountable for any of the crisis. They have appeared before courts and Senate Hearings – but the Regulators are not smart enough to understand of know where to begin to trace the fraud origins. Billions in bonuses have been paid to these Bankers and they will never be made accountable.
The approach from Regulators has been tunnel vision stuff and will never change. It’s a ‘them’ verses ‘us’ and the Regulators will always be reactionary as opposed to the innovators in the marketplace.
Those responsible for the GFC will never be made accountable, never spend a day in goal, and the cost of whatever price still has to be paid to fix the problem will be for the globe to bear, and bear they will.
Who owns the Global Sovereign Debt:
The Chart below portrays actual and forecast Debt/GDP ratios for OPEC Members. [Click on Chart to enlarge in a Web Browser Window.]
All the Nations with financial troubles, and that includes the USA, Europe, UK, Canada, have massive debt, and that debt has to be purchased by investors. The average of OECD Nations Debt/GDP is expected to be 112% in 2014. That is serious financial stress for OPEC Member Nations.
The security and integrity of all that sovereign debt is under pressure. Ratings Agencies are challenged and after their GFC failings when they sold ‘AAA’ ratings for ‘sub-prime’ assets in exchange for massive ‘bribe monies’, why should they be trusted ever again.
That sovereign debt is owned by investors and the ‘risk’ on that investment capital not eroding edges higher every day. That does not consider the interest cost of the debt as the ‘risk’ factor escalates. If Greece, Spain, or other EuroZone Nation fail, more will follow and the worth of that debt owned by investors will disappear.
That translates to massive write-downs on all that Debt, and that means Hedge Funds, Superfund Managers, Investment Banks and the like will all have to pass those losses on to the individual holders who invested with the Fund Managers.
If you are a Super Fund investor – and that is every Australian – you may think you are not at risk – you would be wrong.
Australia avoids GFC:
Leadership should be about conservative choices, particularly in these high-risk times. This is where Treasurer Swan has failed in his responsibilities to all Australians. He has given false predictions to the Australian people for six years about the Government’s finances at a time where the GFC has created its own uncertainty.
Whether it is just incompetence as a financial manager, or a politician with an agenda apart from managing the Nations finances, Mr Swan has become a ‘joke’ in his own Nation when it comes to his ability to get his Budgets anywhere near the reality of the economy.
The view held by many is that Mr Swan’s forecasts are all to suit the ALP election purposes and the Treasury modelling numbers are no longer reliable. Mr Swan does not appear to understand where his duty of care resides, or if it is a case that he is aware, then is pursuit of promised budget surpluses is based on skullduggery and corrupted by an ALP socialist agenda.
Despite the failed budget surpluses, the Prime Minister still has him serving as the Treasurer, and that is the PM’s failure. The PM has history of rewarding those with shady, or shonky pasts – i.e. Craig Thompson, Peter Slipper, Tony Sheldon, Bernard Murphy, and of course her own AWU fraud past.
Our GFC horror awaits us – we were saved by China and evidence of this was there for all to see by late 2008. The A$ had sold off in early 2008 and recovered this selloff from mid-2008 as off-shore investors first bailed and then realised their panic. During early 2008 the A$ fell from parity to below A$0.60c in a matter of weeks, and then from mid-2009 rallied to above parity by early 2010.
This was all on the back of China buying our resources to satisfy their demand – China’s timing was impeccable and ever since China has dominated the Global markets with everybody wanting to increase their trade with China.
Mr Swan has often bragged about how the ALP saved Australia from the GFC. To believe that is to believe in the ‘tooth-fairy’. In fact the budget spend under the ALP has been criminal in terms of the misread by the Treasury and the RBA.
The High A$ cost:
What follows in detail is a macro forensic examination of Australia’s current and future financial wellbeing.
The research exposes Gillard’s and Swan’s leadership flaws and how they have transformed the Nations finances from ‘no-debt’ and a very exciting economy when Rudd took office in late 2007, and turned the Nation’s finances upside down with new indebtedness approaching $300 billion.
Another negative has been the surging A$ to which the RBA, the Treasury, and both sides of politics believe should be allowed to ebb and flow without intervention. Against other Nations who peg their currency, and keep it devalued giving them a competitive edge Australia are too stupid to realise and do anything about it.
Our Labour force is no among the most expensive in the world and Swan’s ‘Jobs – Jobs – Jobs’ cry is a meaningless war cry when the man does not understand what it is he does not understand.
Jobs are being exported, Companies are closing down because they can’t compete with cheap off-shore imports, and all because Government economic policies – and this includes the RBA’s charter – focus on ‘inflation targeting’ as an economic barometer.
The evidence is there in the job losses being announce everyday – Business can’t compete with the A$ at historical highs and some A$.025- A$0.030c above 30 year averages.
The high currency continues to erode our economy every working day.
The A$0.04c sell-off since Mr Swan delivered his budget speech almost two weeks ago a week is a signal from the international investment community they might just be taking some profits.
If they are preparing to exit as they see an end to the ‘rape and pillage’ access they have been given access to, then the Australian economy will recover in 2-3 years. If the A$ is allowed to again increase in value without intervention or policy initiatives to impose a cost to buy and invest in our currency – then we deserve everything we get.
When and if the exit out of A$’s starts in earnest, the A$ will free-fall and our exporters will sigh relief.
Industries like Tourism, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Resources, Retailing, have all struggled in this GFC aftermath against a high currency. To find reasons why neither the RBA, nor the Government tried to find a way to stem the easy ride given to these off-shore investors is not a simple exercise. Lunacy comes to mind …
This current group of ALP MP’s have no concept of what Australia needs in the modern world. Their ideas and policies are still tunnel visioned around 80’s Union thinking. These are times for very different approaches and if Australia is to regain its competitive edge on the global marketplace, we need new ideas and a Leadership who can inspire and with a vision that challenges existing beliefs and protocols.
Whether the Opposition can do any better is still to be proven.
What is known is that they will be left with a Gillard/Swan legacy no incoming Government has ever had to face or deal with. The challenge is there and if Abbott can overcome then he will have proved many wrong.
The Prime Minister under Police Investigation:
The Prime Minister now admits that she is under Police investigation – having denied it in the 2GB Ben Fordham interview during March. This admission should be enough for the media and the ALP caucus to call for her to step aside. She refuses and is now in a full blown election campaign to seek further tenure as the Prime Minister.
It is outrageous that she is allowed to continue to serve whilst under investigation for serious charges. Clinton held onto power, Nixon resigned, but none of them were facing allegations of fraud as Gillard faces.
The ‘criminal’ allegations Ms Gillard faces has serious implications for the reputation of all those who hold public office. Mr Thompson and Mr Slipper are also before the courts on fraud type charges. How can the public be expected to trust our Leaders if they are involved in crimes against the public purse.
Add the Obeid/MacDonald and associates exposed during the ICAC inquiry – and the HSU’s Willianson, there is reason to investigate crimes committed over the misuse of public monies via a Royal Commission.
These corruption stories are the broken sewer-line that is causing stench all across Australia.
It goes to the Prime Ministers toxicity and ebbs all over her caucus for not doing something about it. How is it possible for some 72 ALP HOR Members and 30 odd ALP Senators to accept as their Leader someone who is under police investigation?
The Swan Budget fraud begins and ends with this history of corrupt acceptance …
Published in The Australian on the 22nd May is a story titled: “Budget numbers add up, says Treasury, but the forecast is clouded” – it was written by David Uren … linked on-line here – it is well worth the read.
There will be another 8-10 Chapters to complete this series posts on this subject. The endeavour will be to have them all posted by weeks end.
Thank you for your continued support.
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