EYE-BALL’s Herman on – The Tears of a Prime Minister –
|Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
– 24th Mar – An Example of bureaucracy gone mad –
– 10th Mar = The Carbon Tax – Post Election …
– 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop
28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View
– 6th Feb – Corruption
– 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination –
– 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism –
– 12th Nov – Hegemony
– 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election –
To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts:
– The Tears of a Prime Minister –
| Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 19th May 2013 |
|T HIS IS TRULY AMAZING – AND WORTH THE EFFORT….MATH QUIZ: Reveals your favourite movie!!
I did it in my head, then on paper, and finally on a calculator just to confirm my numerical capabilities. Each time I got the same answer, and sure enough it IS my very favourite movie EVER!
You will be AMAZED at how scary true and accurate this test is.
I received this joke by e-mail in mid February. The strangest part is the sender was a former ALP member and Candidate. Such is the disaffection for this government. On November 24, 2007 I worked with this fellow at Narraweena Public School in the seat of McKellar, passing out ALP how to vote info. To each person as they walked out I said “Have a nice night” and to those who took ALP paraphernalia off me, I commented “you will have a good night”.
Recently I have been asked to enter a sweep on election night what time will Julia make her concession speech?
At the last election I predicted that the result would be unknown at the time of closing the national tally room on the Saturday night, I predicted the result would be called mid Sunday afternoon. I was only out by 2 plus weeks, and I believed that Windsor, Oakschott and Katter would join a coalition government. As the Coalition won 73 seats, that appeared to be consistent.
For some time, I have been doubting this parliament will last until September 14. Now I am convinced it will. To hear Abbott last Thursday affirm September 14, means that the opposition are working to this schedule.
Therefore the polling stations will close on the east coast at 6pm, and meaningful data will be available from 7.30pm. By 8pm Central Australia polling stations will be showing a tiny glimmer of hope for the ALP, but by 8.30pm when the first data comes in from the West Coast the East Coast will have about 65% of votes counted, and a 9% swing in Qld, a 8% swing in NSW, and a 6.5% swing in Victoria and 5% swing in Tasmania will see the coalition already having won 75 seats. At that time in Tasmania the Coalition will have won 3 of the 5 seats. At that time it will be announced Julia Gillard is expected to address the nation in about 10 minutes. It will be about 9pm before the cameras finally cross to the PM.
There will be no tears. By that time our Julia will have cried herself out. She will be stoic, and composed. She will have been marginally conceded her own seat of Lalor in Melbourne’s Central Western suburbs with a reduced majority. Her current 1st preference vote is over 64%. Knowing she is to vacate the lodge, she will want to retire, and will definitely state she will throw open the ALP leadership. Wayne Swann will lose his seat of Lilley. Kevin Rudd will be regularly featured on Channel 7. Even for him it will be uncomfortable. He will refrain from saying I told you so, and he will be constantly asked if he will seek the leadership only to respond he will do what it takes to rebuild the ALP brand. What he really wants is to break the grip of the ACTU and several unions that include AWU, TWU and ETU.
Prime Minister Abbott will be an ally in that cause, at that time.
I bumped into John Murphy today. He is the ALP member for Reid. That seat is right in the coalition targets. I asked him how he is doing? He replied OK. He was betting on the gallops and while ever the politician that was his focus. He asked where I live, and I told him in Grayndler. He mentioned what Albo was up to. They always assume you are a stool pigeon.
This week parliament has been illuminating. On Tuesday Swan gave a rather commanding budget speech, but afterwards I felt very hollow. On Thursday I was truly shocked how Abbott turned his speech into a campaign launch. And it was so effective. His promise on conclusion to work for the people of Australia, looking straight into the camera. Simply so effective.
This brings me to the tears, and the sad part. For the next 4 months we are basically rudderless. A government only interested in improving their electoral stocks, an opposition hell bent on meticulous planning and no bad publicity, ipso facto by election day the only real issue is how can you cast a senate vote, so that the coalition is kept in check.
On Thursday morning our PM was nearly in tears talking about the NDIS in Parliament. It is to be her epitaph. Sorry Julia, as hard as people may try you don’t get to write your own history. It is hard to expunge the Schools Building program. We will go on giving a Gonski for decades to come. Most importantly, Disability care is still rather conceptual, and the detail is still to come.
On March 11, 1983 John Malcolm Fraser gave his concession speech to Bob Hawke, and nearly broke down in tears. Hey Mal, life wasn’t meant to be easy! So choke on it!
Thirteen years later Paul Keating knew his time was up, and his speech was so confident, it was even vain glorious.
That what I see for our first female PM. The tears will be in trying to turn things around. By 9pm on September 14th there will be no tears left.
John Murphy turns 63 in a fortnight. By September he will be just shy of 15 years as MHR. He can retire gracefully.
In late September Julia Gillard turns 52. She will have 15 years as a MHR and over 3 years as PM. She will constitute our 7th surviving former PM. 52 is just too young to retire. Any job offers out there?
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EYE-BALL’s ‘Herman’ …