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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Gone – Ski Part II (Gone is Gonski)

July 5, 2013
Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:

– 27th June – Gone-Ski: Prime Minister Julia Gillard

– 24th June – The Ashes

– 21st June – The Senate

– 5th June – Zombies

– 1st June – Canberra – and black holes

-30th May – What is an adequate Contrition?

– 24th May – Simplex

– 19th May – The Tears of a Prime Minister

– 24th Mar – An Example of bureaucracy gone mad

– 10th Mar – The Carbon Tax – Post Election …

– 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop

28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View

– 6th Feb – Corruption

– 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination

– 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism

– 12th Nov – Hegemony

– 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election

To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts:

click here …

Gone – Ski Part II (Gone is Gonski)
| Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 5th July 2013 |
In the last week, much has unfolded. Simon Crean has announced his retirement, so has Greg Combet, Stephen Smith has taken as respectable a retirement as circumstances will allow. Federal ALP has intervened in the NSW State branch. Dead wood is being pruned. Backyard blitz takes on a new meaning.

The makeover is starting to take shape. Tony Burke attempted to resign, and his resignation was not accepted. Tanya Plibersek is still Minister for Health. Jenny Macklin is still there and ministerial positions are musical chairs (deck chairs on the Titanic). Can these weeds be realistically controlled or made useful?

What really matters is policy, and why do we forgive them now? They created this mess so why should we believe they will really fix it, can fix it.

For a start, this parliament has only run it’s course through the support of amongst others Craig Thomson. Had Thomson been forced to vacate his seat 18 months ago at a by election Dobell would have gone Coalition. Therefore Tony Abbott would be PM today. Windsor and Oakeshott both former Nationals but now independent have played their part. They are both not contesting their seats and that means a notional 76 (tiny majority) to Coalition as things stand.

Then comes the question why did Rudd not challenge sooner?

If Rudd had have stood last March, he would have had 3 months more to turn things around. As policies change, why did he leave it until there was no apparent parliamentary sittings to debate these shifts in policy. It is left to journalists to get admissions of culpability over matters like the shift in immigration?

Why is Rudd scared of the opposition on the parliamentary floor?

He keeps taunting Abbott with debate me on Prime Time TV. Abbott is saying I won’t play the game. But at some stage he needs to play the game. He needs to give the electorate time to develop belief in the team he leads.

To find any rationality in all that is now upon us we have to go back further in recent history. Exactly how Rudd was overthrown in June 2010 and what were the real motives and who were the real players?

When Rudd and Gillard first came together as a leadership team, both were considered young and neither more chance. Rudd was prepared to serve under Gillard but Rudd was the better spokesperson. The ALP was desperate to end the Howard reign. Rudd had no factional allegiances, and Gillard was all things to all people. Rudd due to his diplomatic background won over.

Roll on to November 2007, they did the unbelievable, they won. Queensland turned a narrow victory into a massive one because for the 1st time there was a Qld Prime Minister. A golden period ensued. Costello retired. Howard was defeated in his own seat. Some was attributable to Workchoices other decisions were just human frailty.

Brendan Nelson was anointed Liberal leader. He said he would have a go. There was no heir apparent beyond Costello. There was Kyoto and Sorry and Rudd was walking on water, metaphorically. Nelson called a leadership contest, he was happy to get out. The Liberal party’s electoral stocks were atrocious.

The leadership was given to Turnbull. He wasn’t ready. Then came Godwin Grech and Utegate. Turnbull had no traction. Then came Carbon Tax and Copenhagen. Abbott took over, in a contest that included Hockey. The Liberal party was happy with 2nd best.

After Copenhagen Rudd was petulant. He spat the dummy.

The fools got in the way. Rudd dropped Carbon Tax cold and switched to a mining super profits tax.  Some virtual unknown announced the coup on ABC TV by the name of Paul Howes, of the AWU. By the time that was decided Rudd was the first 1st term prime minister knifed by his own party. Gillard spoke of a good government who had lost their way.

Australia was in shock. Leaks were everywhere. All scuttlebutt. What was the truth? Arbib according to Wikileaks had been informing Washington what was really happening. Shorten and Howes were spokespersons. Richardson claimed a part, and implicated the Victorian right. All was based on gossip and leaks. The ALP went ever so close to losing the unlosable election. Gillard formed a minority government. Abbott had brought the Coalition back from the grave. Gillard show her real chameleon persona, she was simply do what it takes. In her words “the Little Doer” in public perception, power is everything. Australia gave her a very good go. Abbott acted as if he was just waiting for government to fall to the Coalition. The broken promise on Carbon Tax was just the beginning. The Coalition played it like a broken record.

The shambles that parlayed from there on in was just too hard to believe. HSU, Slipper, more broken promises, parliamentary salary increases, a budget surplus set in stone, oops an $18bn deficit, Eddie Obeid. When it was first announced on Christmas Eve that the guaranteed surplus was abandoned, because jobs matter, the death knoll had rung for the last time. Maybe not, maybe it was the NSW ICAC enquiries into Tripodi, Obeid and McDonald. Nothing will save the Gillard government. Don’t put away that gong too fast. The death knolls just get louder.

By the May Budget there was a massive disconnect. Coming from Caucus was this nonsense of a j curve. Sell our positive agenda, harp on about the Coalition negative agenda. But no one is listening.

The ALP needed desperately a circuit breaker. The only one was Rudd. Rudd the Dud according to prominent front benchers. They lined up to tell us what a dud he was in 2012. Those who spoke most freely and at length are all gone now. Those that spoke less candidly, knowing how foolish they looked, have survived, just.

Gillard had to find a way out, the ALP had to find a face saving exit. Shorten switches to the Rudd forces.

Was Rudd guaranteed an open mandate to fix the underlying issues? Please be clear on what issues.

We now wait.

Intervention in NSW ALP. ASIC claims the banks are gauging on term deposit rollover rates.

Hang on ASIC is a government agency but they have been silent for far too many years on the banks not passing on full interest rate cuts. Why is that pitched at the retiree sector rather than the mortgagee belt? Where is Glenn Stevens and the RBA or APRA. Oh investments! Australian Securities and Investments Commission!

So Rudd has got a friend, one at ASIC.

Rudd does a flying visit to Indonesia. Carbon tax moving to Emissions Trading System. Nothing is firm, not even the election date. Wow this is much more the opening lines of Macbeth than Act V Scene II.

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble. Eye of newt & and toe of frog, Wool of bat, and tongue of dog, Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting, Lizard’s leg, and howlet’s wing, For a charm of powerful trouble, Like a hell-broth boil and bubble. Double, double, toil and trouble; Fire burn and cauldron bubble. [Macbeth Act I]

What is left?

A 2nd string (journey man) Coalition leader. One that is easily labelled negative, and having little by way of policy. A closer run race where confusion reigns. He though he was MacDuff, but it was always Rudd, the understudy who was going to play the part.

Where and How will the ALP secure not only seats to counter New England and Lyne, but hold Dobell and Robertson and many many more. I can now believe that some seats like Kingsford Smith will be a stronger majority to the ALP. Garrett has gone. But winning 5 seats is different. Safe seats like Batman or Lalor, Melbourne or maybe even Denison don’t change the scenario.

They won’t. They can’t.

What will happen is that the Coalition will form government and be on the back foot from day 1. The Greens will struggle to win a senate seat but will still be the balance of power in the Upper House. Going for a double dissolution will not achieve anything. They might well lose the lot. Opposition leader Rudd could well be in a position to take back the government benches. No initiative allowing them to expunge the Carbon Tax will be possible. Only waiting until 2016 will see the Greens finished. It will be very difficult for the Coalition to make any significant difference.

The best thing about Shakespeare is that it does have an ending. How surreal!

Believing in sanity is indeed insanity.

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EYE-BALL’s ‘Herman’ …

  1. July 10, 2013 at 10:10 am

    A short update on one vote one value (an oxy-moron);

    Since this post their are thoughts diametrically opposed.

    Why is the Australian electorate interested in how the ALP sorts out their leadership woes of the last 3 odd years?

    There is a fine line here;
    Australia is slowly deteriorating, economically and socially through about 5 years of highly emotive and too often simplistic and knuckle headed policy, and
    now that a broom has been through cabinet, where jokes like Swan, Conroy, Garrett, Oakeshott, Windsor and Emerson are gonski, yet others like Burke and Dreyfus have just been airbrushed, and
    the ALP has some respite in the opinion polls, particularly when parliament is not scheduled to sit again at this stage.

    Why the further manipulation of democratic process by simply not declaring an election date?

    The Electorate does not like any government manipulating the electoral cycle. We have been counting down the days to when we get our say.

    Yet now we are asked to hold while only ALP faithful sort out their crazy mad persons selection process.

    On the other hand Abbott is not making friends by not taking a more prominent profile.

    On the next time Abbott is asked for a prime time TV debate against Rudd he should immediately agree on the proviso the debate in on the role of the electorate and polls (rather than opinion polls) in deciding the way forward, particularly in a pluralist democracy and most particularly in a minority government.

    I tend to agree with the expressions that what our Prime Minister is really up to is a version of the pea and thimble trick. Look here, look here and which thimble has the pea? A version of populist mania.

    The issue of Abbott having repaid $9400 of parliamentary expenses claimed while promoting his book will never be a minor matter to be ignored. Any issue of abuse of privilege brings into disrepute the entire parliament. He can dismiss those allegations at his own peril. Look where the AWUWRA has landed the former PM. It is all cumulative. In the end it was just another straw that ultimately broke the camels back.

    As for Peter Slipper’s office claiming it is 10 times worse than the quantum Slipper is charged with, give us a break. Expense rorting is endemic. Peter Slipper has been charged with partying while claiming parliamentary expense. Take us to this winery and wait, now take us to another winery and wait, it is but a tip of the iceberg. Only that what is clearly in evidence. We that are truly marginalised can not understand why we need to pay another fraction while these maniacs take us for a ride (a cab voucher or a flight).

    For me this is just a continuation of knuckle heads who want to lead, but don’t accept the real responsibility.

  2. July 10, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    10 out of 10 comment –

    The ‘tip’ of the iceberg you say … I’d say ‘tip’ of the ocean – some $370 million a year on parliamentary expenses over and above electoral allowances and remunerations … all for 150 MP’s and 80 Senators … that is an average of $1.6 million each p/a … it is the greatest unaudited ‘dip’ hole from which any group of wankers can dip from …

    The concept of ‘claim first’ and if they find out its wrong ‘pay it back’, is the greatest crawl of creepy you can think off … just where are the minds and morals of these people …

    You are so spot on Herman …

  3. Budda Balls
    July 10, 2013 at 4:03 pm

    Given the revelations about the Abbott history on expense rorting, many questions are now answered as to why he did not go after Gillard as he should of. The ants nest is in scatter mode if anybody wants to go and take a good look.

  4. July 15, 2013 at 5:25 pm

    Scott Morrison is a maniac. No descriptors, just a maniac.

    The ALP has committed the greatest faux pas possible over the weekend by changing policy on the carbon tax switching early to an ETS.

    One of the most enduring policies of a minority government, totally dictated by the balance of power has now been scrapped. A broken promise.

    So Abbott comes out and removes his left foot from his mouth only to replace it with his right foot with words to the effect “so-called market in the non-delivery of an invisible substance to no one” and Scott Morrison only has to chip in by talking of going back to Howard era on immigration policy.

    The swing voter will determine this coming election. The Libs by pandering to the right get nowhere. The Labs by restoring belief in traditional heartland is different. Only 3 weeks ago the Labs had less than 30% of 1st pref vote.

    That all said winning the confidence of the middle, those 20% who swing will determine the next government. Those who are crippled by mortgages, or housing affordability, or lack of employment prospects, including those crucified by the high AUD. Those who suffer at the hands of the banks the miners, the oligopoly in retail. Etcetra.

    1st generation Australians join 2nd generation and 3rd generation and so on at the fiasco of Australia’s immigration predicament. A citizenship or residency visa can be bought, through bribery. If it is not Captain Emad selling sots on refugee boats then it is corrupt Indonesia police helping boats to sea from Java on their way to Christmas Island.

    The ALP is starting to get a fraction of traction. These are not political refugees, they are economic refugees. Trading their economic prospects by sending one offspring to Australia though people smuggling. Hoping in time to re umite as a family under easier resettlement claims.

    Scott Morrison wins no one by putting forward going back to Howard policy. We all want to move on. We are not mindless right wing voters. We want to see progress. John Howard was defeated in his own seat of Benelong. A first for a sitting PM.

    Australia is screaming out for difference. Something better.

    We can have Kevin 07 who was a good government who lost it’s way or an opposition that is a real alternative. Listen to the polls.

    Australia is undecided. That want something to believe in. They want leadership. They are over cronyism, and failed policy.

    Two odd weeks ago I wrote to Scott Morrison. There was no reply. There was no response.

    We the people of Australia want an alternative. We want connected politicians. We want our representatives to do their job. We don’t want another 3 years of the same being told what is good for us, no matter what the hue.

    If the Lib’s want any change (or chance) at the forthcoming poll, take Scott Morrison, and make him put a sock in it. Those in the safest seats are the worst for democrazy.

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