Archive for January 20, 2013

EYE-BALL Guru on – Wayne Swan Tips his hat at New Yorkers –

January 20, 2013 4 comments
Latest GURU Posts:

– 10th Jan – The ANZ Whitehaven Hoax –

– 5th Jan 2013 – Financial ‘Ghosts’ from the Past – Hawke and Keating v Gillard and Swan –

– 29th Dec – The Great Big Financial Swindle – Part II – The ‘Budget Surplus’ Backflip – Swan tells his own Porkies …

– 22nd Dec – The Great Big Financial Swindle – Part 1 – The ‘Budget Surplus’ Backflip – Swan serves up Senator Wong

– 14th Dec – The Walls are crumbling – Government admits High A$ policy is hurting –

– 4th Dec – Retailers and bureaucrats don’t understand – high A$ value responsible for off-shore purchases –

– 19th Nov – Government Expenditures Part I – Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet – DPMC – STAFFING –

– 3rd Nov – Shareholders – Holding back the world – scared money – scared boss’s –

To see more GURU posts:

click here …

– Wayne Swan Tips his hat at New Yorker’s –
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 19th Jan 2013 |

Our own ‘World’s Best Treasurer’ Wayne Swan has been globe-trotting on his end of year Season holidays.  On his travels he parked his ass in New York for a few days for a ‘sales pitch’ delivery about Australia’s ‘better than the rest of the world’ performance to the Harvard Club in New York.

With his ‘tip-hat’ open for more international ‘capital’, Mr Swan stood before some of the worlds most respected financial market operators and delivered his ego version of Australia’s remarkable aversion to all things ‘GFC’ related.

Without wanting to misquote the Treasurer – his full speech text can be read via his Treasury Minister Portal linked here

In part his address stated …

… You’d all be aware that despite being buffeted by the very worst the global financial crisis had to throw at us, Australia stood almost alone in the developed world in avoiding recession. I’m really proud that we got the big economic calls right in those dark days and stayed the course while the shrapnel whizzed past our ears. I know there’s a school of thought out there that puts a lot of our success down to the enormous mining boom we’ve got in Australia, and of course that’s an important part of our story …

… and further along in his address …

…Let me start by quickly mapping out our tremendous strengths. We are a young, inclusive and optimistic country. Our economy has notched up 21 consecutive years of growth, a record unmatched by any other advanced economy over this period. We recently became the 12th largest economy in the world – jumping three places in the last five years – and with only the 51st largest population in the world, so we continue to punch above our weight. Over the past five years, growth in Australia’s real GDP per capita has outperformed all of the major advanced economies, and we’ve moved up four places in the world rankings of GDP per person. The IMF expects our economy to outperform every major advanced economy this year and next. We’ve created over 800,000 jobs since November 2007 while something like 30 million people have lost their livelihoods around the world. We’ve got a high level of productivity and a highly skilled labour force. We are a capital hungry country and we’ve built on our strong reputation as one of the most attractive investment destinations in the world. At 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2011, Australia’s foreign direct investment inflows are more than double that of the OECD average. We’ve seen more than $1 trillion dollars of new business investment in our economy since this Government came to office. And we’ve got a massive pipeline of mining investment still to come, with the export phase of our mining boom still ramping up. We’ve got strong public finances with net debt only around a tenth the level of the major advanced economies. Which means Australia is now one of only eight countries in the world with the gold-plated, AAA rating with a stable outlook from all three global ratings agencies – a coveted trifecta. As a country, we are now paying our way more than ever before…

Swan’s comments represent living proof that if you keep feeding yourself the lie,  you will get to the point where it is so easy to sell the lie to yourself, and to others.

It gets to the point where you have no idea what the truth really is or was, and then when that truth stands up and bites you in the arse, i.e. the back-flip on the surplus … it is so easy to then use the economist’s who had been calling it ‘stupid’ to pursue a surplus in the first place, as reasons to support the fiscal impossibility of ever delivering the 1000 times promised surplus over the past 2-3 years.

Mr Swan has much to be answerable for …

The RBA’s website data allowed Table of revenue’s and expenditure’s to be extracted that reveals all talk about a drop off in revenue is a great big ‘hoax’, it is an outright lie to the Australian people.

The Table below shows there was no drop off in revenue – in fact the increases recorded for 2011 – 7.8% and 2012 – 9.6% represents numbers that rank among the top seven (7) revenue growth years since 1996.   The deficit for those two years measured $51 and $47 billion respectively.   It was never a revenue problem but an expenditure problem.  [click on Table image below to enlarge in a new window.]

As reported in a previous Guru’s blog – linked here – the following text quoted …

… In fact – Part I also highlighted the point that for the budget deficits in 2010 [$57 billion], 2011 [$51 billion], and 2012 [$47 billion] to have been balanced  – the revenue growth needed to create such a scenario would have had to have been, 16.5%, 26.9%, and 25.9% for each of those years.  These numbers represent multiple factor increases and were completely unrealistic in their forecast…

Swan is Australia’s representative to the world on all things financial – when he speaks to the worlds most eminent and influential financial market operators, we expect that he knows what he is talking about – he is out there selling a lie to the world and if the data in the above table is in plain sight – how do you think the rest of the world responds to Swan’s lies.  

Saying it is so, don’t make it so … polite people will shake your hand and hear what you have to say – all the while those same polite people know you are one dumb motherfu_ker trying to sell a lie … Swan is doing more harm than good when he opens his mouth in far off lands….

Read the following part of his address and ask yourself does he know what he is talking about …

…Let’s start with the global economy. I want to say upfront that I think 2013 could be a better year for the global recovery, but only if policymakers around the world do the right thing for growth and jobs. I think there’s a lot of evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. I’ve always been an optimist about China – and I think the data we’ve seen should give us confidence that they’ve still got the policy capacity to manage their economy and they’ve been getting it pretty right. We also need to keep China’s recent growth performance in perspective. China is now 40 per cent larger than it was in 2008. So its growth rate can be 20 per cent lower – say 8 per cent now versus 10 per cent back then – for China to make the same contribution to global growth. Yes there are risks – China will have to keep addressing its big structural challenges like the huge amount of unregulated lending in its financial system and its transition to more consumption-led growth…

… and further along in his address …

…Of course, governments must ensure their finances are on a sustainable path, but they must do so in a responsible, growth-friendly way. You don’t need to slash and burn now in order to deliver sound fiscal outcomes in the medium term. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde spoke of the importance of letting automatic stabilisers operate to support growth, in Europe and in economies right around the world. Which brings us to the United States. President Obama should be congratulated for his constructive efforts to reach a compromise to reduce economic harm to lower and middle-class Americans from the scheduled tax increases and cuts to entitlements. He has done a commendable job of protecting those who would have been hit hardest and who could have least afforded it, in the face of a determined political campaign to instead protect the very wealthy. But I agree with Christine Lagarde and Ben Bernanke when they say that nothing short of a comprehensive deal on US fiscal policy will do. The US economy – and therefore the global economy – needs to see a comprehensive deal beyond avoiding the fiscal cliff, which includes agreement on the debt ceiling and on a sustainable budget trajectory…

The whole address was typical Swan – it was much ado about nothing that he really understands .. the phrase – ‘he does not understand what he does not understand’ again comes to mind when talking about Wayne Swan and Treasury matters.

Now if he said to all these New York ‘robber-barons’ with their siphon hose’s firmly embedded in Australian bonds, and commerce – if he had of used this speech to let them know they might all now have to pay a price for the resultant high A$ value, and for the damage it has caused to Australia’s economy and competitiveness – if he place them on notice with out threatening them – then  it would have been enough to create substantial selling of the A$ and get us some relief on global markets.

Mr Swan does not think like that, and nor does the RBA – as political players they are goose eggs, and ripe for the plundering.  Mr Swan is the stooge guy allowing all overseas investors to strip wealth from Australia under his very nose.

Mr Swan does not get it … his advisers don’t get it … the RBA don’t get it … but smart operators based off-shore are not gonna wise him up … they’re making so much money out of Swan’s ignorance – all at the cost to Australia’s home owners paying far too high an interest rate reaping quick return rewards for all those off-shore investors.

Australian Fund Managers:

A few days ago, one of the largest fund managers in the World – BlackRock Investments, with some US$3.7 trillion under management has predicted huge consolidation of Australia’s industry super funds, all leading to a shake-out of Australian fund managers – read the full story here

The Australian ‘Future-Fund’ set up off the proceeds of the Telstra sale by former Treasurer Costello, is investing off-shore to help it meet ‘investment return’ targets.   Soon all Australian super funds will be doing the same with greater portions of their portfolio – all because as the A$ holds its lofty heights and the Nation struggles to compete on a global stage … all that Swan boast’s as being a reason to invest in Australia will suddenly become a reason to get out.

Swan often talks about the ‘investment pipeline’ of some $500 billion still to eventuate … it’s a dream Mr Swan … no idiot investor is going to buy A$’s at these record levels against a mean average of A$0.75c for the past 30 odd years.  You create the circumstances where the A$ will free-fall for a few months and then you will see a rebound in interest from off-shore capital investors.   Your Harvard Club address was an opportunity Mr Swan and you never even knew about it.

Swan’s doorstop interview after the Harvard Club address:

Treasurer Swan gave a doorstop press conference after his Harvard Club address – the transcript can be read in full here

In part, the following text is copied from that press interview …


Were you able to convert any of the Tea Party in there into the idea of the deficit being something that is sustainable?


I think we had a good discussion and good question and answer session there.

I think they understand the importance of good fiscal policy in Australia. Our fiscal consolidation has given the Reserve Bank the opportunity to adjust interest rates down very substantially. They understand the importance of good fiscal policy in Australia, and good fiscal policy in Australia has put us in the position of having an economy which is 13 per cent larger than it was five years ago.


What’s the difference between what the US is doing and what Australia is doing in general terms? Or is it just pure luck in the commodities? What’s going on there?


What Australia has put in place over a long period of time is good fiscal and monetary policy, and the consequence of that is strong growth. The Australian economy has a very substantial pipeline of investment in resources, but we’ve also seen very good growth over a long period of time right across our economy.


The mining boom, is it over?


Well, there are three phases of mining, investment and production in Australia. It started with a price boom which came off over the past year but now has got very substantial investment in mining. That’s got a long way to run. And that’s got to be followed by an expansion substantially in production and an expansion of exports. So the mining boom, if you like, and investment in mining has got a long way to run in Australia.

But I was at pains to point out that the Australian economy is much broader than mining and the opportunities for investment are much broader in agriculture, education and a whole range of service industries. That’s what I spoke to them about today.


With the prospect of actually getting something out of that mining tax? Is that looking good in the future do you think?


Well what we’ve seen in the last few months has been a substantial crash in the price of commodities, there’s been some return in that, but as we go forward we’ll have to see how the numbers pan out. The fact is that profits-based taxes depend on high prices, and when prices go down that has an impact on profits-based taxes.


Any revenue from that tax?


What we’ll have to do is we’ll have to see the future course of prices. We can’t draw conclusions from one particular month or one particular quarter.


What about the six month period (inaudible)?


We can’t draw conclusions over a short period of time when prices have been low. We have to have a look over a longer period of time and we’ll have to see where prices go.


Are you able to give an indication to anybody, perhaps six months, how the tax has performed?


Well, what I’ve said before and what the Tax Office and Treasury have said, is that there are confidentially provisions within the Tax Act which don’t allow the authorities to distinguish between resource rent taxes.


So, there’s going to be no unveiling of how the mining tax is doing?


Well these are matters not for me, these are matters for the Treasury and the Tax Office, and they follow the law.


Simply change the law, isn’t that an option?


Well, the confidentially provisions of the Tax Act are very important to every taxpayer. People should think very carefully about the importance of law in this area.


(Inaudible) the deficit, there’s no prospect obviously of a surplus in the near future?


Well, what we said at the end of last year is that a surplus in 2012-13 was unlikely as a consequence of very substantial revenue write-downs in all taxes associated with profits. The consequence of that is that a surplus will be unlikely in 2012-13 and that is what I outlined at the end of last year.


(Inaudible) how have you found the reaction to Australia’s economic performance, and are people literally asking for (inaudible)


There is very strong recognition of the resilience of the Australian economy because unlike other developed economies, Australia has got low levels of debt, Australia has solid growth, and Australia has bright economic prospects for the future.


But surely at this time isn’t this the sort of trend when you should be in surplus, you should be handing down a surplus when the economy is buoyant and has been for so long?


What the government has been doing has been putting in place a balanced, responsible fiscal policy, and we have put in place a very substantial fiscal consolidation over time. What we decided at the end of last year was to let the automatic stabilisers operate in an environment where further revenue write-downs would lead to a loss of jobs and growth should we cut harder.


Have you identified somewhere where you can (inaudible)?


We just said that it would hurt jobs and growth if we were to cut further as a consequence of a revenue write down which flowed from a higher dollar and lower commodity prices.


Two other programs that are going to get guaranteed up and running are national disability and education is going to get a bit of kick along (inaudible)?


Well, I don’t do budgets in interviews from New York.

The ‘inaudible’ tag is used a lot these days – remember the Jenny Macklin denial over her being able to live on $35 a day gaff … perhaps there were no cameras around to provide proof of the Q&A … but Mr Swan was not ‘putting-out’ so to speak.

The side step over the ‘MRRT‘ question was interesting … it’s obvious that this matter is being primed to be a media beat-up when Parliament resumes in February … but how do you answer a question that will make you look a fool no matter what response is given?   

The Government still does not have a working response to this issue.  

In all seriousness – the Government can’t claim blame a fall in revenue forecast – see Table above – they can’t blame the volume of exports as Rio and BHP have just announced record exports … they can’t blame the States for royalty changes … all they have left is to come clean and admit the cost the high A$ has caused, and they miscalculated the tax collect on MRRT and the Carbon Tax.    

This proves incompetence, and someone has to pay the price as another $5-$10 billion error adds to the people’s debt.

Swan’s Bio and Credentials:

When one screens Swan’s APH profile and bio of employment before he became a politician – linked here … his private sector work experience is non-existent.  Swan has no obvious financial credentials whatsoever, he became a career politician right out of higher education, he lectured for a few years on and off but all the while serving as a Ministerial staffer, all the while awaiting his turn to be anointed and promoted as a ALP MP.

What would Mr Swan know about Financial Markets and the real cause of the GFC other then what he has been told or read about.  What would he know about the Regulatory and Administrative involvement and negligence of the events that led to the GFC?  

When Prime Minister Rudd appointed Swan as Treasurer, was he making a political choice to appease Unions, or was Swan the best man for the job?   We know the latter is not true, so the political choice Rudd made came back to slap him in the face big time in June 2010.

Gillard – an even bugger dunce on financial matters than Swan needed Swan to help with the coup – Swan remained as Treasurer and printed the money Gillard told him to print – he never offered a ‘yelp’ in any direction – he did as he was told all the while trying to con the Australian people he knew what he was doing.

Now we have some $300 billion in new debt – an economy tanking because of the uncompetitiveness of Australia’s work force,  and all due to the 10 year-long appreciation of the A$ … 

must have known Swan’s lack of credentials to serve as Treasurer.   Yes – treasury Department provide all the backing and advice but they are also full of career bureaucrats who have never served in the private sector. 

Swan’s Re-election Chances:

A report out today on Swan’s chances of retaining his seat at the next Federal Election gives him little chance … read full story here … he has a 53%/47% margin and a 3.5% swing will unseat him – see last election results for Swan’s seat of Lilly here

This is how politicians get away with trashing an economy … the lose and walk away without responsibility – Swan’s cock-up’s will become the problem of the next guy.  Gillard may face criminal charges for her role in the AWU fraud – but when she is booted she will not face any charges for the $300 billing debt she has imposed on the Australian people.

The Age‘  ran a story on this same matter overnight – linked here – giving numbers and the results of a poll in Swan’s electorate.

Given Swan’s New York address, and his knowledge of how he will fare in the upcoming election – one ponders whether the New York trip was more about him preparing for life after politics, or if he was really in there rooting for Australia.

This year will be a year where politics stoops to new lows and the people will become enraged …  hell – they’re enraged now … they want an early election and if Slipper does what Slipper always does – look after himself and secure his Parliamentary Super – he will resign thus forcing a call for an early election.

If Gillard does not know it already – she is already on the spit and being basted as the heat flames the surface … will she jump out of the fire as well … or will she be skewered  like she skewered Rudd … what’s good for the goose is good for the gander – right.

Can’t wait to see it happen … it won’t be pretty … but then nor should it be given what this Nation has had to endure politically since Gillard took over.

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The EYE-BALL Guru …

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