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EYE-BALL Opinion – Climate Change & The Human Factor – The Silent Debate nobody wants to talk about –

December 27, 2012
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Title:
– Climate Change & The Human Factor  –
– The Silent Debate nobody wants to talk about –
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 27th Dec 2012 |
There has been trillions of words written on the human impact on climate change – yet the amount of words written about a ceiling on a sustainable level for a global human population could fit on a small flash drive.

For as long as this EYE-BALL site has been up and running – the Carbon-Tax ‘fix’ to the climate-change debate has been taken to task.

All the talk about ‘human-cause’ and the remedy debate used in the ‘carbon-tax’ policy, leading to the $trillion’s to be spent on ‘clean-energy’ in the coming decades has almost fooled everybody, yet not those who think outside the square.

The OECD has a report titled – Outlook for 2050‘ – the full report is linked here – a short summary of some of the top-sheet findings in the report are presented below:

The Consequences of Inaction – Key Facts and Figures include:

  1. Socioeconomic Developments:
  • World population is expected to increase from 7 billion today to over 9 billion in 2050. A growing population is likely to increase pressures on the natural resources that supply energy and food.
  • World GDP is projected to almost quadruple by 2050, despite the recent recession.
  • Average GDP growth rates are projected to slow gradually in the coming decades in China and India. While Africa will remain the poorest continent, it is projected to see the world’s highest economic growth rate between 2030 and 2050.
  • Over a quarter of population in OECD countries is projected to be over 65 years of age in 2050 compared to about 15% today. China and India are also likely to see significant population ageing, with China’s workforce actually shrinking by 2050.
  • Cities are likely to absorb the total world population growth between 2010 and 2050. By 2050, nearly 70% of the world population is projected to be living in urban areas.
  1. Energy and Land Use

By 2050, without new policies…

  • A world economy four times larger than today is projected to need 80% more energy in 2050 without new policy action.
  • Global energy mix in 2050 will not differ significantly from today, with the share of fossil energy at about 85%, renewables including biofuels just over 10%, and the balance nuclear. The BRIICS are projected to become major energy users, increasing their reliance on fossil fuels.
  • To feed a growing population with changing dietary preferences, agricultural land is projected to expand globally in the next decade to match the increase in food demand, but at a diminishing rate. A substantial increase in competition for scarce land is expected in the coming decades.
  1. Climate Change:

By 2050, without new policies…

  • Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projected to increase by 50%, primarily due to a 70% growth in energy-related CO2 emissions.
  • The atmospheric concentration of GHGs could reach 685 parts per million (ppm) CO2- equivalents by 2050. As a result, global average temperature is projected to be 3 degrees celsius to 6 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, exceeding the internationally agreed goal of limiting it to 2 degrees celsius.
  • The GHG mitigation actions pledged by countries in the Cancún Agreements at the United Nations Climate Change Conference will not be enough to prevent the global average temperature from exceeding the 2 degrees celsius threshold, unless very rapid and costly emission reductions are realised after 2020. They are more in line with a 3 degrees celsius increase.

It then highlights what will happen if inaction is the course of action adopted:

What if we act…

  • It makes environmental and economic sense. The Outlook suggests that global carbon pricing sufficient to lower GHG emissions by nearly 70% in 2050 compared to the Baseline scenario and limit GHG concentrations to 450 ppm would slow economic growth by only 0.2 percentage points per year on average. This would cost roughly 5.5% of global GDP in 2050. This pales alongside the potential cost of inaction on climate change, which some estimate could be as high as 14% of average world consumption per capita.
  • Carbon pricing can raise revenues. If the emission reduction pledges that industrialised countries indicated in the Cancún Agreements were to be implemented through carbon taxes or cap-andtrade schemes with fully auctioned permits, the fiscal revenues could amount to over 0.6% of their GDP in 2020, i.e. more than USD 250 billion.
  • Delaying action is costly. Delayed or only moderate action up to 2020 (such as implementing the Copenhagen/Cancún pledges only, or waiting for better technologies to come on stream) would increase the pace and scale of efforts needed after 2020. It would lead to 50% higher costs in 2050 compared to timely action, and potentially entail higher environmental risk.
  • Reform fossil fuel subsidies. Support to fossil fuel production and use amounted to between USD 45-75 billion per annum in recent years in OECD countries. Developing and emerging economies provided over USD 400 billion in fossil fuel consumer subsidies in 2010 according to IEA estimates (IEA).
  • OECD Outlook simulation shows that phasing out fossil fuels subsidies in developing countries could reduce by 6% global energy-related GHG emissions, provide incentives for increased energy efficiency and renewable energy and also increase public finance for climate action. However, fossil fuel subsidy reforms should be implemented carefully while addressing potential negative impacts on households through appropriate measures.

EYE-BALL Comment:

It amazes that even a ‘think-tank’ like the OECD has not raised the most obvious of issues in its synopsis as presented above – if population is the cause of expected further climate change influence and so many other socioeconomic complications for the planet – why is there no debate on a population ceiling for the planet?

They themselves talk of the ‘carbon-tax’ remedy …

Where is the forecast predictions on what an unrestrained verses a restrained population growth has on the climate change debate?

No politician talks about this – Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has been given several opportunities to respond to this type of logic in the past, yet no response has ever been received.  This post will be sent to Mr Combet and the Opposition Climate Change spokesperson,  Mr Greg Hunt, again looking for a response.

Further OECD key highlights continue via this link – and are well worth the read.

But I ask you to think upon the core issue behind all the climate change promoters who think it caused by human influence – not one of them has prompted any debate on a planet population ceiling … that must drive the though process in asking why not – how can anyone blame humans for the climate change influence when the remedies proposed have no debate on control over population growth?

The only logical conclusion can be the weakness in Global Leadership to raise the population ceiling debate at any forum.  The alternative is the acceptance of the new tax’s collected from any climate change reversal measures – it would seem these tax collects are more important and needed Government revenues than finding a long-term solution based on the cause of the problem.


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.

Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s


The EYE-BALL Opinion …

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