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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 7th – 9th Sep –

September 3, 2012
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2

Latest ‘Rookie Bookie Updates:


GI Index Performance:

Value of INDEX:

30th Mar = (+) 0
04th Apr = (+) 216.67
11th Apr = (+) 393.67
18th Apr = (+) 293.67
25th Apr = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
2nd May = (+) 290.00
9th May = (+) 340
16th May = (+) 433.3
23rd May = (+) 517.2
30th May = (+) 492.2
6th Jun = (+) 467.3
13th Jun = (+) 497.3
20th Jun = (+) 463.7
27th Jun = (+) 363.7
4th Jly = (+) 363.7
11th Jly = (+) 352.47
18th Jly = (+) 335.80
25th Jly = (+) 328.30
1st Aug = (+) 370.80
8th Aug = (+) 274.97
15th Aug = (+) 264.13
22nd Aug = (+) 286.63
27th Aug = (+) 236.63
3rd Sep = (+) 176.63


Links to previous Posts:

2012:


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Rookie Bookie’ posts:

click here …


Title:
– Weekend Preview – 7th – 9th Sep –
| Author: Rookie Bookie |3rd Sep 2012 |
To assist with navigating this page, please use the INDEX links below to go to Admin and Code Summaries:


Last Weekend Bet Results:

  • 1 unit on Cowboys in NRL v Cronulla @ $2.20 win
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. lost
  • I unit on Blues in AFL v St Kilda @ $2 lost
  • 1 unit on West Coast in AFL v Hawthorn @ $4.15 lost

A Decision Tree (for both NRL and AFL)

Each team now must win a minimum of 3 matches to win the comp. If a team finishing in top 4 loses in week one, they go through to grand final only by winning in weeks 2 and 3. If there was an easy match, (most predictable), odds would skew.  That is how markets are framed.

Manly and Storm in NRL, while Hawthorn and Sydney?? are now predicted to fight out the Grand Final. I can’t see it. I would need at least $7 on any of those to get interested.   For positions 5 to 8 I would require about $15 to get interested. The bookies percentages influence all of this, including outstanding bets. I am now interested in match play, more than eventual winner.

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The Rugby Championship:

0 interest is now a dead series, not much more than academic or trials.

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AFL – Finals Week 1: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Hawthorn v Collingwood estimate market $1.70/$2.42 Actual $1.38/$3.10
  • Adelaide v Swans estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $1.65/$2.25
  • West Coast v North Melb estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • Geelong v Fremantle estimate market $1.70/$2.42 Actual $1.30/$3.55

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: Sydney Swans
  • Value: North or Swans?
  • At the Margin: Totally Irrelevant.

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Critical stats

Hawthorn v Collingwood

  • previous matches Hawthorn R1 20.17.137 – 16.19.115, Hawks R17  21.12.138 – 13.13.91.
  • Hawthorn 1st Quarter won 13, 2nd 21, 3rd 12, 4th 14.
  • Collingwood1st Quarter won 16, 2nd 12, 3rd 11, 4th 10.
  • Prediction CHCH

Adelaide v Sydney

  • Previous matches Crows R6 15.9.99 – 14.10.94.
  • Adelaide 1st Quarter won 15, 2nd 12, 3rd 16, 4th 13.
  • Swans 1st Quarter won 16, 2nd 14, 3rd 16, 4th 10.
  • Prediction SSAS

West Coast Eagles v North Melbourne Kangaroos

  • Previous matches West Coast R6 17.18.120 – 15.5.95, West Coast R15 12.14.86 – 13.6.84,
  • WCE 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 15, 3rd 12, 4th 16.
  • North 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 15, 3rd 13, 4th 11.
  • Prediction NNWN

 Geelong v Fremantle

  • Previous match Magpies Fremantle R1 15.11.101 – 16.9.105
  • Cats Quarter won 12, 2nd 13, 3rd 10, 4th 16
  • Dockers 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 11, 3rd 16, 4th 15.
  • Prediction FGGF

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NRL Finals Week 1: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Canterbury v Manly – estimate market $2.12/$1.90 Actual $2.20/$1.67
  • Storm v Rabbitohs – estimate market $1.80 /$2.25 Actual $1.65/$2.25
  • North Qld v Brisbane – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.45/$2.75
  • Raiders v Sharks – estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.60/$2.35

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: North Queensland (Tab too short)
  • Value: Bulldogs
  • At the Margin: Totally Irrelevant.

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Critical Stats – Previous Match ups.

  • Dogs v Sea Eagles – Manly R8 12 – 10, R20 Bulldogs 20 – 12.
  • Storm v Rabbits  – Storm R2 24 – 10
  • Cowboys v Broncos – Cowboys R2 28 – 26, Cowboys R15 12 – 0.
  • Raiders V Sharks – Sharks R8 44 – 22 (away), Raiders R20 36 – 4 (away).

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Betting Summary:

  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $8.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • ½ unit on Cowboys to win NRL Premiership @ $13.00

This Weekend:

Post after Wednesday with knowledge of injuries, judiciary and live prices

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EYE-BALL’s Rookie-Bookie …

 

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  1. September 7, 2012 at 3:11 pm

    Posted on Rookie Bookie’s Behalf – he’s working and out of Computer contact:

    1 unit on Nth Melbourne
    1 unit on Swans
    1 unit of Rabbits and,
    1 unit on Sharkies …

    Happy punting all …

    Rookie …

  2. Rookie Bookie
    September 8, 2012 at 7:09 am

    In NRL I have backed South Sydney Rabbitohs at $2.25, The Noah’s Arks at $2.40, In AFL I have Swans @ $2.35 and North Melbourne at $4.35.

    Last night, in AFL the four quarters were all Hawthorn, more than that Hawks were awesome. Their new quote to take out the flag is $1.80 which is approx $1.35 in preliminary and grand final each. Utter nonsense. Against Geeelong, or Adelaide or Sydney I would want to see $1.80 each match.

    I am still condensing the NRL. Canterbury won, but it still went the full 80 minutes. Manly got the lucky breaks and lost. Both captains injured. Doggies get a weeks break. Manly need to back up against highest placed winner, Cowboys, Raiders or Sharks to go into week 3. Doggies real showed some grit. Top stuff.

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