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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 24th – 27th Aug -

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Latest ‘Rookie Bookie Updates:


GI Index Performance:

Value of INDEX:

30th Mar = (+) 0
04th Apr = (+) 216.67
11th Apr = (+) 393.67
18th Apr = (+) 293.67
25th Apr = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
2nd May = (+) 290.00
9th May = (+) 340
16th May = (+) 433.3
23rd May = (+) 517.2
30th May = (+) 492.2
6th Jun = (+) 467.3
13th Jun = (+) 497.3
20th Jun = (+) 463.7
27th Jun = (+) 363.7
4th Jly = (+) 363.7
11th Jly = (+) 352.47
18th Jly = (+) 335.80
25th Jly = (+) 328.30
1st Aug = (+) 370.80
8th Aug = (+) 274.97
15th Aug = (+) 264.13
22nd Aug = (+) 286.63


Links to previous Posts:

2012:


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Rookie Bookie’ posts:

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Title:
- Weekend Preview – 24th – 27th Aug -
| Author: Rookie Bookie |23rd Aug 2012 |
To assist with navigating this page, please use the INDEX links below to go to Admin and Code Summaries:


Last Weekend Bet Results:

  • 1 unit on Cowboys (NRL )over Saints @ $1.55 collect 1.55, plus
  • ½ unit on North Melbourne (AFL) @ $3.25 collect 1.625 total 3.175,
  • ½ unit on Newcastle to defeat Manly (again) @ $3.00, lost and
  • ½ unit on Essendon (AFL) @ $2.15, lost;

Therefore 3.175 less stake 2.5 represents 22.5 positive index points. My wager on Adelaide Crows to win minor premiership is highly likely worthless given their shock loss to Brisbane Lions.

AFL Round 20

  • Geelong v St Kilda Cats 8 Saints 4.5
  • Essendon v Carlton Essendon 3.5 Blues 7
  • Fremantle v Richmond Freo 7 Tiges 5
  • Collingwood v North Pies 5.5 Roos 8.5
  • Brisbane v Adelaide Lions 7.5 Crows 3

NRL Round 23

  • Broncos v Storm Broncos 7 Storm 7.25
  • Bulldogs v Tigers Bulldogs 7.25 Wests 7
  • Raiders v Chooks Raiders 5.5
  • Sharks v Rabbitohs Sharks 6.5 Souths 4
  • Titans v Eels Titans 6
  • Sea Eagles v Knights Manly 8 Newcastle 4
  • Saints v Cowboys NQ 6

Return to Top …


The Rugby Championship:

  • My assessment is NZ $1.12, Australia $10.00, SA $6.00, Argentina $101.
  • Tab Sportsbet is NZ $1.16 Australia $13.00, SA $5.50, Argentina $201.

Round 2

  • New Zealand v Australia (+15.5) My estimate $3.50/$1.40 Actual $1.09/$7.00
  • Argentina (+8.5) v South Africa My estimate $11.00/$1.10 Actual $4.00/$1.22

Return to Top …


AFL – Round 22: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Richmond v Essendon estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.65/$2.25
  • St Kilda v GWS estimate market $1.10/$11.00 Actual $1.01/$17.00
  • Port v Lions estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.15/$1.70
  • Hawks v Swans estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.80/$2.05
  • Weagles v Pies estimate market $2.12/$1.90 Actual $1.80/$2.05
  • Suns  v Blues estimate market $8.00/$1.14 Actual $14.00/$1.02
  • Geelong v Footscray estimate market $21/$1.05 Actual $17.00/$1.01
  • North v Freo estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Demons  v Crows estimate market $100.00/$1.01 Actual $6.75/$1.11

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: Hawthorn
  • Value: Fremantle, Collingwood
  • At the Margin: TBA

Auto Regressive Odds Appraisal: (likely grand final appearance – grand final win, a dynamic momentum approach)

  • Hawthorn Hawks 88% ($5.46) Tab Price $2.50
  • Sydney Swans 85% (odds required $5.71) Tab Price $5.00
  • Collingwood Magpies 85% ($5.65) Tab Price $5.00
  • Adelaide Crows 78% (odds required $6.15) Tab Price $8.00
  • Geelong Cats 63% ($7.67) Tab Price $8.00
  • West Coast Eagles 67% ($7.16) Tab Price $15.00
  • North Melbourne Kangaroos 45% ($10.69) Tab Price $21.00
  • Fremantle Dockers 40% ($11.89) Tab Price $101.00

Top Four Betting

  • Hawthorn $1.05,
  • Collingwood $1.20,
  • West Coast $4.25,
  • North $34,
  • Geelong $51.

Final 8 Betting

  • Fremantle $1.55
  • Carlton $2.35

Betting on the Minor Premiership

  • Adelaide $9.00
  • Sydney $1.80
  • Hawthorn $2.20
  • Collingwood $51.00

Wooden Spoon

  • Western Sydney Giants $1.02
  • Gold Coast Suns $11.00.

Return to Top …


AFL -The Race for the Flag:

Sydney Swans

  • Won 16 from 20, losses to Crows R6 14.10.94 – 15.9.99, Richmond R7 8.14.62 – 13.13.91, St Kilda R9 12.11.83 – 16.15.111, Collingwood 9.16.70 – 12.6.78,
  • Last 5 WWWLW 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 14, 3rd 16, 4th 10.
  • Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 1st, 1st on %. Last Game – Geelong (a).

Hawthorn

  • Won 15 from 20, losses to Geelong R2 13.12.90 – 14.9.92, West Coast R4 5.16.46 – 5.21.51, Sydney R5 10.9.69 – 16.10.106, Richmond R9 10.15.75 – 21.11.137, Geelong R19 17.14.116 – 18.10.118.
  • Last 5 WWWLW 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 19, 3rd 10, 4th 13.
  • Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 1st, 2nd on % Last Game – West Coast (h).

Adelaide

  • Won 15 from 20, losses to Hawthorn R3 12.12 84 – 21.14.140, Collingwood R9 6.13.49 – 10.15.75, North R13 13.11.89 – 17.19.121, Geelong R18 11.9.75 – 15.12.102, Brisbane Lions R21 12.13.85 – 13.17. 95,
  • Last 5 WLWWL 1st Quarter won 13, 2nd 10, 3rd 14, 4th 12.
  • Prediction 17 from 22Equal 1st, 3rd on %. Last Game – Gold Coast (h).

Collingwood

  • Won 15 from 20, losses to Hawthorn R1 16.19.115 – 20.17.137, Carlton R3 9.8.62 – 18.14.122, Carlton R15 8.14.62 – 12.13.85, Hawks R17 13.13.91 – 21.12.138, North R21
  • Last 5 LWWWL 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 12, 3rd 10, 4th 9.
  • Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 1st, 4th on %. Last Game – Essendon (a).

West Coast Eagles

  • Won 14 from 20, losses to Essendon R7 7.10.52 – 16.17.113, Brisbane Lions R10 15.10.100 – 16.6.102, Collingwood R13 12.10.82 – 12.13.85, Sydney R15 10.9.69 – 18.13.121, Crows R18 11.9.75 – 19.19.124, Fremantle R19 6.14.48 – 17.11.113.
  • Last 5 LWLWW 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 14, 3rd 11, 4th 14.
  • Prediction 15 from 22 Equal 5th, 5th on % Last Game – Hawks (a).

North

  • Won 13 from 20, losses to Essendon R1 15.12.102 – 14.20.104, Sydney R4 10.17.77 – 17.11.113, West Coast R6 15.5.95 – 17.18.120, Western Bulldogs R7 12.11.83 – 15.11.101, Port R8 14.9.93 – 14.11.95, Hawthorn R10 9.5.59 – 27.12.174, West Coast R15 13.6.84 – 12.14.86,
  • Last 5 WWWWW 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 13, 3rd 12, 4th 10.
  • Prediction 15 from 22 Equal 5th, 6th on % Last Game – Giants (h).

Geelong

  • Won 13 from 20, losses to Fremantle 15.11.101 – 16.9.105, North R3 16.18.114 – 20.11.131, Crows R7 10.12.72 – 19.18.122, Collingwood R8 11.18.84 – 14.12.96, Sydney R13 11.8.74 – 12.8.80, Collingwood R15 10.19.79 – 17.8.110, West Coast
  • Last 5 WWWLW 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 11, 3rd 9, 4th 14.
  • Prediction 15 from 22 Equal 5th, 7th on % Last Game – Sydney (h).

Fremantle –

  • Won 12 from 20, losses to Sydney R2 12.9.81 – 14.10.94, Carlton R5 7.15.57 – 10.5.65, Hawthorn R8 9.9.63 – 17.17. 119, West Coast R9 5.6.36 – 11.18.84, Crows 12.10.82 – 17.9.111, Bombers R13 14.5.89 – 17.11.113, Magpies R14 12.6.78 – 15.17.107 Crows R20 14.7.91 – 17.17.119,
  • Last 5 WWWLW 1st Quarter won 8, 2nd 10, 3rd 14, 4th 13.
  • Prediction 13 from 22 Equal 8th, 8th on % Last Game – Melbourne (h).

Return to Index …


NRL Round 25: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Manly v Broncos (+6.5) – estimate market $1.75/$2.33 Actual $1.45/$2.85
  • Raiders (+6.5) v Dogs  - estimate market $4.00 /$1.33 Actual $2.85/$1.45
  • Panthers (+3.5) v Titans – estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $2.45/$1.57
  • Dragons v Warriors (+4.5) – estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.55/$2.50
  • Cowboys v Knights (+7.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.33/$3.40
  • Chooks (+4.5) v Tigers estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.45/$1.57
  • Rabbitohs v Eels (+15.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.17/$5.25
  • Storm v Sharks (+7.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.38/$3.10

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: Titans
  • Value: Broncos, Eels, Sharks
  • At the Margin: Sharks

Auto Regressive Odds Appraisal: (likely grand final appearance – grand final win, a dynamic appraisal)

  • Manly Sea Eagles 79% ($6.09) Tab Price $3.25
  • Canterbury Bulldogs 87% (odds required $5.42) Tab Price $3.75
  • Melbourne Storm 77% (odds required $6.26) Tab Price $4.25
  • South Sydney Rabbitohs 59% ($8.21) Tab Price $8.00
  • North Qld 58% ($8.24) Tab Price $13.00
  • Wests Tigers 31% ($15.68) Tab Price $26
  • Brisbane Broncos 49% ($9.89) Tab Price $26
  • Cronulla Sharks 37% ($20.2) Tab Price $21
  • Newcastle Knights 1% ($500) Tab Price $151
  • Canberra Raiders 1% ($500) Tab Price $67
  • Gold Coast Titans 1% ($500) Tab Price $101

Top Four Market;

  • Canterbury Bulldogs Not Quoted
  • Melbourne Storm Not Quoted
  • Souths Sydney Rabbitohs $1.12
  • Manly Sea Eagles $1.16
  • North Qld Cowboys $2.75
  • Cronulla Sharks $41.00

Top Eight Market;

  • Brisbane Broncos $1.20
  • Wests Tigers $1.33
  • Canberra Raiders $2.75
  • Gold Coast Titans $4.50
  • Newcastle Knights $11.00

Wooden Spoon (most regular season losses);

  • Parramatta Eels $1.28
  • Penrith Panthers $3.75

Return to Top …


The Money End of the Season

Bulldogs

  • Won 17 from 22, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
  • Their Sequence WWWLWLLLWLWWWbWWbWWWWWW
  • Prediction 19 wins
  • Last Game Roosters (h).

Storm

  • Won 15 from 22, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20, Raiders R18 12 – 40, Cowboys R19 16 – 20, Eels R20 10 – 16, Saints R21 18 – 26,
  • Sequence WWWWWWWWWLbWWLWLbLLLLWWW
  • Prediction 16 wins
  • Last Game Tigers (a).

 Souths

  • Won 14 from 22, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs R13 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26, Manly R23 6 – 23, Sharks R4 7 – 20,
  • Sequence LLWLWWLWWbWWLbWLWWWWWWLL
  • Prediction 16 wins
  • Last Game Knights (a).

Manly

  • Won 14 from 22, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26, Knights R19 6 – 34, R20 Bulldogs 12 – 20,
  • Sequence WWLLLWLWWWWLWbLWbWLLWWWW
  • Prediction 15 wins
  • Last Game Titans (a).

Cowboys

  • Won 13 from 22, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35, Bulldogs R21 18 – 32, Manly R22 6 -8,
  • Sequence LWWLWLWLWWWLLbWWLbWWLLW
  • Prediction 14 wins
  • Last Game Sharks (a).

Sharks

  • Won 12 from 22 & a Draw, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17, Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels R13 20 – 29, Draw Easts R18, Saints R19 10 – 18, Raiders R20 4 – 36, Panthers R21 20 -21, Knights R23 4 – 26,
  • Sequence LLWWWWWWLWLbLWbWWDLLLWL
  • Prediction 13.5 wins
  • Last Game Cowboys (h).

Broncos

  • Won 11 from 22, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26, Titans R20 10 – 14, R22  Bulldogs R23 14 – 26, Storm R24 18 – 19,
  • Sequence WLWWWWWWLLbLWWLWLbWLWLL
  • Prediction 12 wins
  • Last Game Panthers (h).

Tigers

  • Won 11 from 22, losses to Manly R2 18 –22, Saints R3 12 – 36, Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38, Bulldogs R18 20 – 32, Cowboys R20 16 – 29, Souths R21 6 32, Bulldogs R24 22 – 23,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWWWWbWWWLLbLWLLWW
  • Prediction 12 wins
  • Last Game Storm (h).

Raiders

  • Won 11 from 22, losses to Storm R1 19 – 24, Roosters R3 8 – 14, Cowboys R5 6 – 22, Broncos R7 6 – 30, Sharks R8 22 – 44, Manly R9 12 – 18, Souths R12 18 – 36, Tigers R13 0 – 40, Cowboys R16 18 – 40, Titans R19 26 – 38, R21 Knights 6 – 36,
  • Sequence LWLWLWLLLWbLLWbLWWLWLWW
  • Prediction 12 wins
  • Last Game Warriors (a).

Titans

  • Won 10 from 22, losses to Raiders R2 12 –24, Storm R3 6 – 30, Warriors R4 6 – 26, Bulldogs R5 20 – 30, Roosters R6 12 – 18, Broncos R8 8 – 26, Tigers R9 14 – 15, Sharks R14 12 – 22, Saints R16 6 – 8, Warriors R18 14 – 32, R22, Souths 18 – 22, R23 Storm 18 – 26,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWLLWbWWLWLbLWWWLL
  • Prediction 11 wins
  • Last Game Manly (h).

Knights

  • Won 10 from 22, losses to Saints R1 14 –15, Broncos R3 10 – 24, Storm R5 22 – 34, Saints R7 4 – 12, Roosters R9 6 – 24, Cowboys R10 12 – 32, Titans R12 14 – 24, Broncos R13 24 – 50, Raiders R14 16 – 32, Souths R18 18 – 34, R22 Bulldogs 10 – 26,
  • Sequence LWLWLWLWLLbLLLbWWLWWWLW
  • Prediction 10 wins
  • Last Game South (h).

After Round 24 Finals Prediction:

Therefore in week 1

  • Dogs play Manly at ANZ,
  • Storm v Rabbitohs at Melbourne,
  • Cowboys v Tigers at Dairy Farmers,
  • Sharks v Broncos at Shark Park.

After Round 23 Finals Prediction:

Therefore in week 1

  • Dogs play Manly at ANZ,
  • Souths v Storm at ANZ,
  • Cowboys v Knights at Dairy Farmers,
  • Broncos v Tigers at Suncorp.

Return to Top …


Betting Summary:

  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $8.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • ½ unit on Cowboys to win NRL Premiership @ $13.00
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/12
  • 1 unit on Titans to finish in NRL top 8 @ $3.50 (already written off 13/8/12)

This Weekend:

  • 1 unit on Wallabies v All Blacks in Rugby @$7.00
  • ½ unit on Fremantle v North Melb in AFL @ $3.00
  • 1 unit on Titans v Panthers in NRL @ $1.57
  • ½ unit on Broncos v Manly in NRL @ $2.85

Return to Top …


EYE-BALL’s Rookie-Bookie …

  1. big punter
    August 24, 2012 at 6:38 pm | #1

    ian on hawthorne titans cowboys melb might have to buy a bigger safe

  2. big punter
    August 24, 2012 at 6:40 pm | #2

    i have ordered new glasses

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