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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 17th – 20th Aug –

 

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Latest ‘Rookie Bookie Updates:


GI Index Performance:

Value of INDEX:

30th Mar = (+) 0
04th Apr = (+) 216.67
11th Apr = (+) 393.67
18th Apr = (+) 293.67
25th Apr = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
2nd May = (+) 290.00
9th May = (+) 340
16th May = (+) 433.3
23rd May = (+) 517.2
30th May = (+) 492.2
6th Jun = (+) 467.3
13th Jun = (+) 497.3
20th Jun = (+) 463.7
27th Jun = (+) 363.7
4th Jly = (+) 363.7
11th Jly = (+) 352.47
18th Jly = (+) 335.80
25th Jly = (+) 328.30
1st Aug = (+) 370.80
8th Aug = (+) 274.97
15th Aug = (+)264.133


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2012:


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Title:
– Weekend Preview – 17th – 20th Aug –
| Author: Rookie Bookie |17th Aug 2012 |
To assist with navigating this page, please use the INDEX links below to go to Admin and Code Summaries:


Last Weekend Bet Results:

  • 1 unit on Gold Coast Titans to finish in NRL top 8 written off,
  • 1 unit on Gold Coast Titans plus start of 8.5 v Storm @ $1.90 collect,
  • ½ unit on Raiders to defeat Panthers (NRL) @ $1.75 collect,
  • ½ unit on Geelong to defeat West Coast (AFL) @ $2.00, lost
  • ½ unit on GWS Giants to defeat Gold Coast Suns (AFL) @ $2.90, lost
  • ½ unit on GWS Giants with start of 17.5 @ $1.90, lost 1 unit on Collingwood with start 12.5 over Sydney Swans @ $1.90 collect.
  • For 5 units outlaid, collect 4.675, therefore index minus 10.83333

Post Match Review:

Each team is rated according to serious contention for final prospects. Example Broncos led 14 nil and were defeated 22 – 14 by Canterbury. In those circumstances, the Broncos were not shamed, given expectation. Their first 2 tries showed great entreprise. Doggies supporters would actually like to see their team lose one before semi finals. Canterbury despite their player issues showed good grit. Broncos defence was improved. Overall rating Dogs 8.5 out of 10, Broncos 6.5.

AFL Round 20

  • West Coast v GeelongWest Coast won 16.6.102 – 15.7.97, Geelong won 1st Quarter, West Coast won 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter and final quarter. West Coast 8 Geelong 4.5
  • Adelaide v Fremantle Adelaide 7 Fremantle 3.5
  • Swans v Collingwood Swans 8.5 Collingwood 9.5
  • Bombers v North North 7 Essendon 4.5

NRL Round 23

  • Souths v Manly Souths 4.5 Manly 8.5
  • Storm v Titans Storm 7 Titans 4.5
  • Tigers v Saints Tigers 5.5 Saints 2
  • Cowboys v Warriors Cowboys 7.5 Warriors 0
  • Panthers v Raiders Panthers 1.5 Raiders 2.5
  • Dogs v Broncos Canterbury 8.5 Brisbane 6.5
  • Knights v Sharks Newcastle 9 Cronulla 2.5

Explanation

This is further used in Dynamic Appraisal.

  • There were so many moments in individual matches over the recent weekend and overall run to semi finals. Glenn Stewart targeted John Sutton in the first 10 minutes, Sutton was not thereafter in the match, Manly won easily, made Souths look second rate. Souths momentum falters and Manly’s prowess overall improved relatively. Reflected in betting Manly now co favourites to win premiership.
  • Titans fought hard in 1st half to go to sleep early in the second half. Storm put on two classy tries, and Titans could not cope. Loss of Bailey and Harrison, is normal stuff. Deal with what comes! Tigers could spring a massive upset, but recent form is still pretty poor. Should have won by a mile if they are really serious. Cowboys just keep flying under the radar. Sure Warriors are washed up, but they can still cause an upset, who Panthers in R24, Saints in R25 or Raiders in R26, 11 wins now looks ridiculous.
  • Raiders may just continue to threaten but total waste of time.
  • Dogs very impressive, Broncos showed some grit, with a terror run still in front.

Return to Top …


The Rugby Championship:

  • My assessment is NZ $1.50, Australia $6.00, SA $6.00, Argentina $101.
  • Tab Sportsbet is NZ $1.45 Australia $4.75, SA $4.75, Argentina $101.

Round 1

  • Australia (+5.5) v New Zealand My estimate $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.70/$1.45
  • South Africa v Argentina (14.5) My estimate $1.10/$11.00 Actual $1.10/$6.25

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AFL – Round 21: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Geelong v St Kilda(+15.5) estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual $1.38/$3.05
  • Essendon (+5.5) v Carlton estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $2.15/$1.70
  • Giants (+34.5) v Demons estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $4.90/$1.18
  • Fremantle v Richmond (+15.5) estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.43/$2.85
  • Collingwood v North (+12.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.33/$3.25
  • Brisbane (+30.5) v Adelaide estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $4.00/$1.23
  • Port (+80.5) v West Coast estimate market $21/$1.05 Actual $5.00/$1.16
  • Western Bulldogs (+34.5) v Swans estimate market $7.67/$1.15 Actual $8.00/$1.08
  • Hawks v Suns (+34.5) estimate market $1.01/$100.00 Actual $1.01/$15.00

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: Nothing possibly Adelaide, poor value, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast silly odds.
  • Value: Essendon, North Melbourne
  • At the Margin: Best probability of an upset North followed by Richmond.

Auto Regressive Odds Appraisal: (likely grand final appearance – grand final win, a dynamic momentum approach)

  • Sydney Swans 85% (odds required $6.10) Tab Price $5.00
  • Adelaide Crows 81% (odds required $6.92) Tab Price $7.00
  • Collingwood Magpies 87% ($5.96) Tab Price $4.00
  • Hawthorn Hawks 89% ($5.83) Tab Price $2.50
  • West Coast Eagles 67% ($7.74) Tab Price $15.00
  • Geelong Cats 62% ($8.37) Tab Price $13.00
  • North Melbourne Kangaroos 43% ($22.56) Tab Price $34.00
  • Fremantle Dockers 39% ($27.31) Tab Price $151.00
  • Essendon Bombers 24% ($43.25) Tab Price $251.00

Nota Bene:

Collingwood appeared in the Grand Final in 2006 from 5th position. No other team has made the Grand Final from 5th to 8th position. The make up of the top 4 is difficult to predict. This makes an analysis difficult. Hawthorn, Sydney and Adelaide do appear most likely. In NRL things are different slightly.

Top Four Betting

  • Sydney Not Quoted,
  • Adelaide Not Quoted,
  • Hawthorn $1.02,
  • Collingwood $1.05,
  • West Coast $8.00,
  • North $34,
  • Geelong $101.

Final 8 Betting

  • Sydney Not quoted
  • Hawthorn Not quoted
  • Adelaide Not quoted
  • Collingwood not quoted
  • West Coast $1.01
  • Geelong $1.05
  • North $1.04
  • Fremantle $1.85
  • Essendon $3.50

Betting on the Minor Premiership

  • Adelaide $1.85
  • Sydney $3.00
  • Hawthorn $6.50
  • Collingwood $9.00

Wooden Spoon

  • Western Sydney Giants $1.12
  • Gold Coast Suns $6.00.

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AFL -The Race for the Flag:

Sydney Swans

  • Won 15 from 19, losses to Crows R6 14.10.94 – 15.9.99, Richmond R7 8.14.62 – 13.13.91, St Kilda R9 12.11.83 – 16.15.111, Collingwood 9.16.70 – 12.6.78,
  • Sequence WWWWWLLWLWWbWWWWWWWL 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 13, 3rd 15, 4th 9. Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 2nd, 2nd on %.
  • Their run home, – Hawks (h), Geelong (a).

Adelaide

  • Won 15 from 19, losses to Hawthorn R3 12.12 84 – 21.14.140, Collingwood R9 6.13.49 – 10.15.75, North R13 13.11.89 – 17.19.121, Geelong R18 11.9.75 – 15.12.102
  • Sequence WWLWWWWWLWbLWWWWWLWW 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 10, 3rd 14, 4th 12. Prediction Minor Premiers.
  • Their run home, – Melbourne (a), Gold Coast (h).

Collingwood

  • Won 15 from 19, losses to Hawthorn R1 16.19.115 – 20.17.137, Carlton R3 9.8.62 – 18.14.122, Carlton R15 8.14.62 – 12.13.85, Hawks R17 13.13.91 – 21.12.138,
  • Sequence LWLWWWWWWWWbWWLWLWWW 1st Quarter won 14, 2nd 12, 3rd 10, 4th 9. Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 2nd, 4th on %.
  • Their run home, – West Coast (a), Essendon (a).

Hawthorn

  • Won 14 from 19, losses to Geelong R2 13.12.90 – 14.9.92, West Coast R4 5.16.46 – 5.21.51, Sydney R5 10.9.69 – 16.10.106, Richmond R9 10.15.75 – 21.11.137, Geelong R19 17.14.116 – 18.10.118.
  • Sequence WLWLLWWWLWWWbWWWWWL 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 18, 3rd 10, 4th 12. Prediction 17 from 22 Equal 2nd, 3rd on %
  • Their run home, – Sydney (a), West Coast (h).

West Coast Eagles

  • Won 13 from 19, losses to Essendon R7 7.10.52 – 16.17.113, Brisbane Lions R10 15.10.100 – 16.6.102, Collingwood R13 12.10.82 – 12.13.85, Sydney R15 10.9.69 – 18.13.121, Crows R18 11.9.75 – 19.19.124, Fremantle R19 6.14.48 – 17.11.113.
  • Sequence WWWWWWLWWLbWLWWLLWLW 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 13, 3rd 11, 4th 13. Prediction 14 from 22 Equal 5th, 5th on %
  • Their run home, – Port (a), Collingwood (h), Hawks (a).

Geelong

  • Won 12 from 19, losses to Fremantle 15.11.101 – 16.9.105, North R3 16.18.114 – 20.11.131, Crows R7 10.12.72 – 19.18.122, Collingwood R8 11.18.84 – 14.12.96, Sydney R13 11.8.74 – 12.8.80, Collingwood R15 10.19.79 – 17.8.110, West Coast
  • Sequence LWLWWWLLWWWbLWWLWWWWL 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 10, 3rd 9, 4th 13. Prediction 14 from 22 Equal 5th, 7th on %
  • Their run home, – Bulldogs (h), Sydney (h).

North

  • Won 12 from 19, losses to Essendon R1 15.12.102 – 14.20.104, Sydney R4 10.17.77 – 17.11.113, West Coast R6 15.5.95 – 17.18.120, Western Bulldogs R7 12.11.83 – 15.11.101, Port R8 14.9.93 – 14.11.95, Hawthorn R10 9.5.59 – 27.12.174, West Coast R15 13.6.84 – 12.14.86,
  • Sequence LWWLWLLLWLbWWWLWWWW 1st Quarter won 13, 2nd 12, 3rd 11, 4th 9. Prediction 14 from 22 Equal 5th, 6th on %
  • Their run home, – Fremantle (h), Giants (h).

Essendon Bombers

  • Won 11 from 19, losses to Collingwood R5 11.13.79 – 11.14.80, Melbourne R10 6.16.52 – 8.10.58, Sydney R11 11.16.82 – 13.8.86, St Kilda R15 8.14.62 – 21.7.133, Geelong R18, 10.7.67 – 20.14.134, North R20 11.10.76 – 15.10.100
  • Sequence WWWWLWWWWLLbWWLWWLWL 1st Quarter won 8, 2nd 11, 3rd 8, 4th 10. Prediction 13 from 22, Equal 8th 9th on %.
  • Their run home, – Richmond (a), Collingwood (h).

Fremantle –

  • Won 11 from 19, losses to Sydney R2 12.9.81 – 14.10.94, Carlton R5 7.15.57 – 10.5.65, Hawthorn R8 9.9.63 – 17.17. 119, West Coast R9 5.6.36 – 11.18.84, Crows 12.10.82 – 17.9.111, Bombers R13 14.5.89 – 17.11.113, Magpies R14 12.6.78 – 15.17.107 Crows R20 14.7.91 – 17.17.119,
  • Sequence WLWWLWWLLLWbLLWWWWWL 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 9, 3rd 13, 4th 12. Prediction 13 from 22 Equal 8th, 8th on %
  • Their run home; – North (a), Melbourne (h).

Return to Index …


NRL Round 24: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Broncos (+4.5) v Storm – estimate market $2.42/$1.70 Actual $2.45/$1.57
  • Bulldogs v Tigers (+7.5) – estimate market $1.50 /$3.00 Actual $1.45/$2.85
  • Raiders v Chooks (+8.5) – estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual $1.45/$2.85
  • Sharks (+6.5) v Rabbitohs – estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Titans v Eels (+6.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.47/$2.75
  • Warriors v Panthers (+8.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.25/$3.25
  • Sea Eagles v Knights (+8.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Saints (+4.5) v Cowboys estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.50/$1.55

The Weekends Forecast:

  • Best Bet: Cowboys
  • Value: Knights
  • At the Margin: Knights

Auto Regressive Odds Appraisal: (likely grand final appearance – grand final win, a dynamic appraisal)

  • Canterbury Bulldogs 92% (odds required $5.10) Tab Price $3.75
  • Manly Sea Eagles 79% ($5.95) Tab Price $3.75
  • Melbourne Storm 76% (odds required $6.18) Tab Price $4.25
  • South Sydney Rabbitohs 65% ($7.23) Tab Price $6.00
  • North Qld 58% ($8.10) Tab Price $13.00
  • Wests Tigers 16% ($29) Tab Price $17
  • Brisbane Broncos 40% ($11.75) Tab Price $26
  • Cronulla Sharks 28% ($20.2) Tab Price $26
  • Newcastle Knights 31% ($19.35) Tab Price $51
  • Canberra Raiders 1% ($125) Tab Price $81
  • Gold Coast Titans <1% ($1000) Tab Price $151
  • St George Illawarra Dragons <0.1% ($1000) $251

Top Four Market;

  • Canterbury Bulldogs Not Quoted
  • Souths Sydney Rabbitohs Not Quoted
  • Melbourne Storm Not Quoted
  • Manly Sea Eagles $1.33
  • North Qld Cowboys $3.25
  • Cronulla Sharks $34.00
  • Brisbane Broncos $51.00
  • Wests Tigers $67.00

Top Eight Market;

  • Souths Sydney Rabbitohs Not Quoted
  • Melbourne Storm Not Quoted
  • Manly Sea Eagles Not Quoted
  • North Qld Cowboys Not Quoted
  • Cronulla Sharks $1.22 (to miss 8 $4.00)
  • Brisbane Broncos $1.18 (to miss 8 $4.50)
  • Wests Tigers $1.25 (to miss 8 $3.50)
  • Canberra Raiders $3.25 (to miss 8 $1.33)
  • Newcastle Knights $3.50 (to miss 8 $1.25)
  • Gold Coast Titans $8.00 (to miss 8 $1.05)
  • St George Illawarra Dragons $26.00 (to miss 8 Not Quoted)
  • New Zealand Warriors $34.00 (to miss 8 Not Quoted)

Wooden Spoon (most regular season losses);

  • Parramatta Eels Suspended
  • Penrith Panthers Suspended

Return to Top …


The Money End of the Season

Bulldogs

  • Won 16 from 21, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
  • Their Sequence WWWLWLLLWLWWWbWWbWWWWW Prediction 18 wins
  • Their run home, – Raiders (a), Roosters (h).

Storm

  • Won 14 from 21, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20, Raiders R18 12 – 40, Cowboys R19 16 – 20, Eels R20 10 – 16, Saints R21 18 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WWWWWWWWWLbWWLWLbLLLLWW Prediction 15 wins
  • Their run home, – Sharks (h), Tigers (a).

Souths

  • Won 14 from 21, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs R13 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26, Manly R23 6 – 23,
  • Sequence LLWLWWLWWbWWLbWLWWWWWWL Prediction 16 wins
  • Their run home, – Eels (h), Knights (a).

Manly

  • Won 13 from 21, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26, Knights R19 6 – 34, R20 Bulldogs 12 – 20,
  • Their Sequence WWLLLWLWWWWLWbLWbWLLWWW Prediction 15 wins
  • Their run home, – Broncos (h), Titans (a).

Cowboys

  • Won 12 from 21, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35, Bulldogs R21 18 – 32, Manly R22 6 -8,
  • Their Sequence LWWLWLWLWWWLLbWWLbWWLLW Prediction 14 wins
  • Their run home, – Knights (h), Sharks (a).

Broncos

  • Won 11 from 21, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26, Titans R20 10 – 14, R22  Bulldogs R23 14 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WLWWWWWWLLbLWWLWLbWLWLL Prediction 12 wins
  • Their run home, – Manly (a), Panthers (h).

Sharks

  • Won 11 from 21 & a Draw, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17, Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels R13 20 – 29, Draw Easts R18, Saints R19 10 – 18, Raiders R20 4 – 36, Panthers R21 20 -21, Knights R23 4 – 26,
  • Their Sequence LLWWWWWWLWLbLWbWWDLLLWL Prediction 11.5 wins
  • Their run home, – Storm (a), Cowboys (h).

Tigers

  • Won 11 from 21, losses to Manly R2 18 –22, Saints R3 12 – 36, Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38, Bulldogs R18 20 – 32, Cowboys R20 16 – 29, Souths R21 6 32,
  • Their Sequence WLLLLLWWWWbWWWLLbLWLLWW Prediction 12 wins
  • Their run home, – Roosters (a), Storm (h).

Knights

  • Won 10 from 21, losses to Saints R1 14 –15, Broncos R3 10 – 24, Storm R5 22 – 34, Saints R7 4 – 12, Roosters R9 6 – 24, Cowboys R10 12 – 32, Titans R12 14 – 24, Broncos R13 24 – 50, Raiders R14 16 – 32, Souths R18 18 – 34, R22 Bulldogs 10 – 26,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLWLWLLbLLLbWWLWWWLW Prediction 12 wins
  • Their run home, – Cowboys (a), South (h).

Raiders

  • Won 10 from 21, losses to Storm R1 19 – 24, Roosters R3 8 – 14, Cowboys R5 6 – 22, Broncos R7 6 – 30, Sharks R8 22 – 44, Manly R9 12 – 18, Souths R12 18 – 36, Tigers R13 0 – 40, Cowboys R16 18 – 40, Titans R19 26 – 38, R21 Knights 6 – 36,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLWLLLWbLLWbLWWLWLWW Prediction 12 wins
  • Their run home, – Bulldogs (a), Warriors (a).

Titans

  • Won 9 from 21, losses to Raiders R2 12 –24, Storm R3 6 – 30, Warriors R4 6 – 26, Bulldogs R5 20 – 30, Roosters R6 12 – 18, Broncos R8 8 – 26, Tigers R9 14 – 15, Sharks R14 12 – 22, Saints R16 6 – 8, Warriors R18 14 – 32, R22, Souths 18 – 22, R23 Storm 18 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WLLLLLWLLWbWWLWLbLWWWLL Prediction 11 wins
  • Their run home, – Panthers (a), Manly (h).

Therefore in week 1 Dogs play Manly at ANZ, Souths v Storm at ANZ, Cowboys v Knights at Dairy Farmers, Broncos v Tigers at Suncorp.

Return to Top …


Betting Summary:

  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $8.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/121 1 unit on Titans to finish in NRL top 8 @ $3.50 (already written off 13/8/12)

This Weekend:

  • 1 unit on Cowboys (NRL)over Saints @ $1.55
  • ½ unit on Cowboys to win NRL Premiership @ $13.00
  • ½ unit on Newcastle to defeat Manly (again) @ $3.00
  • ½ unit on Essendon (AFL) @ $2.15
  • ½ unit on North Melbourne (AFL) @ $3.25

Return to Top …


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