Home > The EYE-BALL Rookie Bookie, The EYE-BALL SportsZone > EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 3rd – 6th Aug –

EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 3rd – 6th Aug –

The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Latest ‘Rookie Bookie Updates:


GI Index Performance:

Value of INDEX:

04th Apr = (+) 216.67
11th Apr = (+) 393.67
18th Apr = (+) 293.67
25th Apr = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
2nd May = (+) 290.00
9th May = (+) 340
16th May = (+) 433.3
23rd May = (+) 517.2
30th May = (+) 492.2
6th Jun = (+) 467.3
13th Jun = (+) 497.3
20th Jun = (+) 463.7
27th Jun = (+) 363.7
4th Jly = (+) 363.7
11th Jly = (+) 352.47
18th Jly = (+) 335.80
25th Jly = (+) 328.30
1st Aug = (+) 370.80


Links to previous Posts:

2012:


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Rookie Bookie’ posts:

click here …


Title:
– Weekend Preview – 3rd – 6th Aug –
| Author: Rookie Bookie |1st Aug 2012 |
Last Weekend Updates:

  • My wager on Capetown Stormers to win Super Rugby is now worthless. Negative 2 units index goes backward 66.67 points.
  • From last weekend on Knights ½ unit collects 1.25,
  • Panthers ½ unit collects 1.50, Titans ½ unit collects 0.825,
  • Freo (AFL) ½ unit collects 0.825 and Eels ½ unit collects 1.875,
  • lost on Western Bulldogs. $6.275 return for 3 outlay.
  • 3.275 win represents positive 109.17 index points.

Overall index is now at 370.8 points net up 42.5 (109.17 – 66.67).

The price on Hawthorn and Sydney in AFL winning the minor premiership is just nonsense. It assumes far too much without reflecting on run home. I simply overlook it, Geelong have grown another leg. Hawks are going well, Pies very shaky. If Hawks do survive this brimstone, they will go into finals near odds on. For Swans it is different, the mindset has it they only win at SCG on smaller ground.

The bet on Australia’s Olympic Gold medal haul looks sick to say the least. Somewhat disappointed in Equestrian. Hoy while having previously won 3 gold (Sydney, Atlanta, Barcelona) and a silver (Beijing), will remain a champion, he is a has been. Time to move over Jim!


The Rugby Championship:

  • My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.
  • Tab Sportsbet is NZ $1.45 Australia $4.75, SA $4.75, Argentina $101.

Round 1

  • Australia v New Zealand My estimate $2.50/$1.67 Actual not available
  • South Africa v Argentina. My estimate $1.10/$11.00 Actual not available

Super Rugby Final

  • Chiefs v Sharks At Hamilton 5.35pm AEST 4/8/12
  • My estimate $1.95/$2.05 Actual $1.30/$3.30.
  • Further Unit invested at $3.30 on Sharks.

AFL – Round 19: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Hawthorn v Geelong (+26.5) estimate market $1.85/$2.18 Actual $1.33/$3.35
  • Bulldogs (+48.5) v North estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $7.00/$1.10
  • Giants(50.5) v Port Adelaide estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $7.50/$1.08
  • Fremantle (+18.5) v West Coast estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.75/$1.45
  • Collingwood v St Kilda (+18.5) estimate market $1.25/$4.00 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Demons v Gold Coast (+20.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.33/$3.35
  • Lions (+7.5) v Tigers estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • Carlton(+18.5) v Swans estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $3.00/$1.40
  • Adelaide v Bombers (+37.5) estimate market $1.20/$6.00 Actual $1.16/$5.25
  • Best Bet: Richmond, Pies, Swannies, Weagles
  • Value: Geelong,
  • At the Margin: Tigers, Giants, GEELONG.

Top Four Betting

  • Sydney $1.01,
  • Hawthorn $1.01,
  • Adelaide $1.01,
  • Collingwood $1.80,
  • West Coast $2.05,
  • Geelong $17.

Final 8 Betting

  • Sydney Not quoted,
  • Hawthorn Not quoted,
  • Adelaide Not quoted,
  • Collingwood $1.01,
  • West Coast $1.01,
  • Essendon $1.75,
  • Geelong $1.35,
  • North $1.25,
  • Fremantle $3.

Grand Final Betting

  • Hawthorn $2.25,
  • Swans $4.50,
  • Collingwood, $6,
  • Adelaide $8,
  • West Coast $11,
  • Geelong $15,
  • North $34,
  • St Kilda $34
  • Essendon $81 &
  • Carlton $151.

Betting on the Minor Premiership

  • Sydney $2.10,
  • Hawthorn $2.10,
  • Adelaide $7.

Wooden Spoon

  • Giants $1.10,
  • Suns $6.25,
  • Demons $51.00.

NRL Round 22: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Roosters (+5.5) v Dragons – estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.65/$1.50
  • Storm v Panthers (+10.5) – estimate market $1.50 /$3.00 Actual $1.26/$4.00
  • Knights (+4.5) v Bulldogs – estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.45/$1.57
  • Cowboys v Sea Eagles (+3.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.70/$2.20
  • Warriors v Sharks (+6.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.47/$2.55
  • Raiders (+2.5) v Broncos estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.20/$1.70
  • Titans (+3.5) v Rabbitohs estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.30/$1.65
  • Tigers v Eels (+3.5) estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.25/$1.67
  • Best Bet: No good thing, Knights will go close, Titans will go close, Manly and Tigers desperate, so too for Broncos, Chooks will go Ok, Sharks, Storm and Warriors not going well. Most teams simply want the win. Avoiding Wooden Spoon is so real.
  • Value: Panthers, Sharks NB how longest price is Panthers at $4 all others under $2.67
  • At the Margin: No great thoughts, who will cop an absolute flogging?

The Money End of the Season

Bulldogs

  • Won 14 from 19, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
  • Their Sequence WWWLWLLLWLWWWbWWbWWW Prediction 18 wins
  • Their run home, – Broncos (h), Tigers (h), Raiders (a), Roosters (h).

Souths

  • Won 13 from 19, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs R13 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26,
  • Sequence LLWLWWLWWbWWLbWLWWWW Prediction 16 wins
  • Their run home, – Manly (h), Sharks (a), Eels (h), Knights (a).

Storm

  • Won 12 from 19, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20, Raiders R18 12 – 40, Cowboys R19 16 – 20, Eels R20 10 – 16, Saints R21 18 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WWWWWWWWWLbWWLWLbLLLL Prediction 14 wins
  • Their run home, – Titans (h), Broncos (a), Sharks (h), Tigers (a).

 Broncos

  • Won 12 from 18, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26, Titans R20 10 – 14,
  • Their Sequence WLWWWWWWLLbLWWLWLbWL Prediction 15 wins
  • Their run home, – Bulldogs (a), Storm (h), Manly (a), Panthers (h).

 Cowboys

  • Won 11 from 19, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35, Bulldogs R21 18 – 32,
  • Their Sequence LWWLWLWLWWWLLbWWLbWWL Prediction 15 wins
  • Their run home, – Warriors (h), Saints (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a).

Manly

  • Won 10 from 17, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26,Knights R19 6 – 34,
  • Their Sequence WWLLLWLWWWWLWbLWbWL Prediction 11 wins
  • Their run home, – Souths (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Titans (a).

Sharks

  • Won 10 from 17 & a Draw, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17 Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels R13 20 – 29, Draw Easts R18, Saints R19 10 – 18,
  • Their Sequence LLWWWWWWLWLbLWbWWDL Prediction 12 wins
  • Their run home, – Knights (a), Souths (h), Storm (a), Cowboys (h).

Titans

  • Won 9 from 19, losses to Raiders R2 12 –24, Storm R3 6 – 30, Warriors R4 6 – 26, Bulldogs R5 20 – 30, Roosters R6 12 – 18, Broncos R8 8 – 26, Tigers R9 14 – 15, Sharks R14 12 – 22, Saints R16 6 – 8, Warriors R18 14 – 32,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWLLWbWWLWLbLWWW Prediction 13 wins
  • Their run home, – Storm (a), Eels (h), Panthers (a), Manly (h).

Knights

  • Won 9 from 19, losses to Saints R1 14 –15, Broncos R3 10 – 24, Storm R5 22 – 34, Saints R7 4 – 12, Roosters R9 6 – 24, Cowboys R10 12 – 32, Titans R12 14 – 24, Broncos R13 24 – 50, Raiders R14 16 – 32, R16 24 – 50, Souths R18 18 – 34
  • Sequence LWLWLWLWLLbLLLbWWLWWW Prediction fighting out 8th with Manly on a count back.
  • Their run home, – Sharks (h), Manly (a), Cowboys (a), South (h).

Tigers

  • Won 9 from 19, losses to Manly R2 18 –22 Saints R3 12 – 36 Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38, Bulldogs R18 20 – 32, Cowboys R20 16 – 29, Souths R21 6 32,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWWWWbWWWLLbLWLL
  • Their run home, – Saints (h), Bulldogs (a), Roosters (a), Storm (h).

Saints

  • Won 9 from 19, losses to Bulldogs R2 4 – 30, Broncos R5 20 – 28, Sharks R6 0 – 12, Cowboys R9 6 – 30, Panthers R10 12 – 13, Souths R11 18 – 19, Manly R13 8 –.20, Bulldogs R15 20 – 28, Raiders R17 18 – 22, Souths R19 16 – 36,
  • Their Sequence WLWWLLWWLLLWLbLWLbWLW
  • Their run home, – Tigers (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h), Eels (a).

Therefore in week 1 Dogs play Cowboys at ANZ, Souths v Broncos at ANZ, Storm v Knights In Melbourne, Titans v Sharks at Gold Coast. Week 2 Broncos v Titans at Lang Park, and Cowboys v Knights in Townsville.

Top Four Market:

  • Canterbury Not Quoted,
  • Souths $1.03,
  • Melbourne $1.04,
  • Manly $3,
  • Cowboys $1.80,
  • Brisbane $4,
  • Cronulla $21.

Top Eight Market:

  • Canterbury Not Quoted,
  • Souths Not Quoted,
  • Melbourne Not Quoted,
  • Manly $1.04,
  • Cowboys $1.03,
  • Brisbane $1.06,
  • Cronulla $2.20,
  • Titans $2.25,
  • Warriors $2.60,
  • Wests $2.80,
  • Newcastle $2.60.

Wooden Spoon (most regular season losses):

  • Parramatta $1.75,
  • Penrith $3.00,
  • Easts $5.00.
  • Quite likely of a very tight finish. Parra were substantially better than other 2 last weekend.

Grand Final Market:

  • Canterbury $4.00,
  • Souths $4.50,
  • Melbourne $5.50,
  • Manly $7,
  • Cowboys $9.00,
  • Brisbane $11,
  • Cronulla $26,
  • Titans $26,
  • Warriors $34.

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit) bet placed 19/5/12
  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $8.00. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/12

This Weekend:

  • ½ unit (AFL) Geelong over Hawthorn @ $3.35
  • ½ unit (AFL) Geelong over Hawthorn  with 5.5 goals (26.5) start @ $1.90
  • ½ Unit (AFL) Tigers, into Swans, into Collingwood, into West Coast. (1.65 x 1.40 x 1.40 x 1.45) $4.6893
  • 1 Unit Natal Sharks to win Super Rugby @ $3.30.
  • ½ unit on NRL Panthers over Storm @ $4 (Melbourne Home)

Go the Sharks in the Rugby. Probably the first time I have ever supported the Yarpies in anything.


EYE-BALL’s Rookie-Bookie …

Advertisements
  1. rookie bookie
    August 2, 2012 at 12:25 am

    In Super Rugby Sharks are now at $3.40.

    This reminds me of Grand Final in Rugby League 1985. I had a virtual skinner on Canterbury. No odds would attract bets to balance my scenario. On the Friday I offered 5 to 2 to attract money. One bloke said at 7 to 2 he would square me up. He wasn’t a big gambler, therefore I did not entertain him, nor did I want to give money away, Dogs won the match 7 – 6, and it was a dream result. Not form just great luck (arse).

    The bookies have won handsomely on Super Rugby. They laid Reds, Crusaders and Bulls, and Stormers. There is over belief in NZ teams. They have taken smaller amounts on Chiefs. Virtually nothing on Sharks. Sharks have come from nowhere, Where quoted at better than $20 4 weeks ago. Even now, no one wants to back them. Bookies could offer decent odds on Chiefs, but only look at the individual match. If you hit them at $3.40 you are doing them a favour. Money is money. Nice when you got it. They are my best bet this weekend. I have stated my ratings, There are other interesting bets this weekend.

  2. Cowboy
    August 2, 2012 at 12:37 pm

    Hey Dude,

    Been a great season so far. Loved the QLD’s over the NSW Blues and looking forward to teh finals series.

    You sound like a Rabbits supporter yet you almost always tip against them. It’s been a tough few weeks with bottom ranked teams beating the top teams. We only get the NRL games on replay or off Bit Torrent download. Not all games come through.

    Keep up the good work. I get all my core info off your site and having a great punting season.

    Thanks man …

    Cowboy.

  3. rookie bookie
    August 4, 2012 at 12:27 am

    Geelong were out to $3.70 this afternoon and wow what a match. Quite distracting from the Olympics. Strange part was with the start they were backed in slightly to $1.85.

    My return tonight of 2.625 for a full unit (1.90 X 0.5) plus ($3.35 x 0.5) will probably see me over gamble throughout the weekend.

    Before tonight I thought the Crows price for the Minor Premiership was stupid, and Sharks in the Super Rugby are out to $3.50.

    In the AFL, there are 10 Victorian teams, and 8 expansion teams (2 in WA, SA, Qld and NSW). Rivalry rounds are such that Collingwood will play Victoria teams disproportionately, While Sydney and Adelaide will get excess matches against the lowly ranked Giants, Suns and Port, (and this year Lions). Of course Demons are a training run this year (Victorian based), and maybe Western Bulldogs, but if you really analyse the matches it is tougher for Hawthorn, Geelong or Collingwood to be minor premiers compared to Weagles, Swans or Crows. In the finals this affect will make Sydney and Adelaide somewhat over rated. Hawthorn can now not really be expected to be Minor Premiers. It should come from Sydney or Adelaide. More next week.

    In NRL the Chookies defeating Saints is not much of a lifeline for Warriors or Raiders, they are 5 points behind 7th spot, with 3 serious contenders on 8th (2 points above) Titans, Knights and Tigers. It makes it really unlikely for Chookies to earn the wooden spoon, so over to Parra and Penrith.

    Sharks with Gallen back, and Manly with Brett Stewart and Choc Watmough are slightly better chances, but I am not confident, with Sharks playing at Mt Smart, and Manly facing the Cowboys in Townsville. It truly is a good weekend to just watch. I truly considered backing Cowboys to finish in top 4 @ $1.80 but there is easier risks to find elsewhere.

    Happy Hunting and Good Punting!

  4. big punter
    August 4, 2012 at 11:56 am

    after some serious thinking have backed collingwood

  5. rookie bookie
    August 4, 2012 at 11:05 pm

    Collingwood to achieve what. I am not going well tonight, on the ropes, quite groggy. Sharks (super Rugby) down, Panthers (NRL) down, West Coast (AFL) down, backed the last 2 winners in Perth but they don’t count, Gold Medal bet hopeless, I am looking for a tip. What time is the next?

  6. August 5, 2012 at 9:32 am

    Don’t beat yourself up Rookie – the Australian performance at the Olympics has surprised more than you – one team gold from the pool and a total -1 gold – 12 silver – 7 bronze – from all performances as at 9:30 am Sunday 5th Aug has the whole Nation thinking what the fuck went wrong.

    The Channel 9 buzz over silver medals cheapens the Australian performances – these athletes are disappointed yet the media are demanding they put on a happy face in the obvious disappointment of not performing at their best.

    Swimming, cycling, shooting, rowing, all sports where Australian won disproportionate GOLD have failed us at therse Olympics. The difference between Gold and Silver is most often ‘heart’ – a pride in representing your country and surely we are only weeks away frm post mortems that will push the blame on this lack of conversion of effort from silver to gold will come down to how the Nation feels about itself.

    As for your Olympic predictions Rookie – you are just one of millions who got it wrong. Not because our athletes weren’t good enough – but because they were not inspired enough.

    On the domestic front – the Union is over and now the cross Tasman challenge and Australia will again be dumped – the AFL you can own all by yourself – and the NRL – well the upsets make these final 5 rounds exciting for tipsters and a nighmare walk for punters.

    Keep your chin up – your many followers appreciate your efforts.

    Snoop-Poop

  7. Cowboy
    August 5, 2012 at 9:36 am

    Ditto to Snoop-Poop’s comments –

    Here in the US individual incentives help out athletes. Do you guys have that down there?

    All across our sports programs, schools, college, athletes are targeted and treated like royalty. It costs – but the pride in our schools in our sport programs lifts communities and generates pride.

    From what I know our system is the envy all the world over … what do you guys have as incentive?

  8. August 5, 2012 at 9:40 am

    Australia is on a downward slide in many areas – many of us know it – you would think that with the high A$ value athletes would have been able to compete in offshore meets due the the financial benefits. This should have honned their competitiveness – the performance at the Olympics particularly in Swimming and Cycling to date has to reflect bigger issues. More to come on this after the olympics as the post mortems begin.

    EYE-BALL.

  9. Budda-Balls
    August 5, 2012 at 9:49 am

    The worst Olympics coverage ever … how dare they give cricket players a microphone to comment on rowing – the bias towards Austraia’s putting in big efforts in the last 500m that never eventuated made me laugh rather than cry …

    The 9:00 am shift knew nothing about sport – they are social media types and the interviews with disappointed athletes in prime time was such a drag –

    The athletics commentary by an AFL commentator was equally as droll – Ray Warren did a great job given Australia underperformed and much of his carisma was lost when he had to call other Nations goung past Australia …

    This is what happens when you plan a coverage on the cheap when non-professional commentators from the sport in question have the microphone.

    Rookie, your efforts all season make Channel Nine predictions via their dumb-ass commentators look pretty good. Keep up the good work.

  10. big punter
    August 5, 2012 at 1:36 pm

    you tipped collingwood well done a touch close but the money has found a great home

  11. rookie bookie
    August 6, 2012 at 2:53 am

    James Brayshaw’ rowing commentating is just sickening. When the race is in the dying seconds he keeps saying the Australian boat is surging when the margin remains intact.

    Lawrie Lawrence gave a great insight on Grandstand last Friday. The world is a bigger (smaller) place. Post 1976 we created AIS. When he was facing being pushed aside he could have gone overseas to big money to coach another country. He chose to take the inferior role of Team Mentor. Others have taken the overseas posting. There is unlimited funds on offer for Australia’s coaching personnel and sports science. Example the German Rowing Coach. Look at the performances of Spain, France, England, even Italy. We need to leave the post mortems to likes of Leigh Nugent. One team gold and a whole clutch of silver out of 27 swimming categories, puts Australia into insignificant category in swimming, but with potential. For the last 12 years (since Thorpedo) our women out perform our men.

    In AFL I am dwelling on the weekend round. If Sydney Swans can win either match against Hawthorn or Collingwood they will finish minor premiers. If they lose both Crows win it. Crows narrow win over the Don’s (from behind) is duly noted.

    Friday night’s Hawks v Cats was totally inspiring. In Quarters Cats by 45, Hawks by 32, Cats by 6. Hawks by 17. Cats can not play any better than that. This year their biggest problem has been lack of go in the first quarter. It was clear they were fired up.

    I made the point on my last post that Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast have favourable draws, compared to Pies, Cats and Hawks. Drop West Coast and you have the serious contenders again. If Sydney secure minor premiership, Collingwood and Hawks could both win in week 1 of the finals. If Adelaide win the minor premiership, they will play Swans in week 1, with Hawks playing Pies. I am now convinced Hawks are the real deal. Collingwood are not going as well, and Geelong are going to continue doing it tough finishing in 5th position. I can see Sydney or Adelaide in the Grand Final, and expect them to meet Hawks, with Hawks winning. These are big calls, the issue is it is easy to back Hawthorn, and difficult to get too enthused about the others.

    Karl Stefanovic must be taught to pronounce Versus!

  1. No trackbacks yet.
Comments are closed.
%d bloggers like this: