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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie on – Weekend Preview – 27th – 30th July.

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Title:
– Weekend Preview – 27th – 30th July –
| Author: Rookie Bookie | 26th July 2012 |
Last Weekend Update:

  • Collect on Parramatta v Storm in NRL ½ unit @$3.85 &
  • Collect on North Melbourne in AFL ½ unit @ $1.70.
  • Lost on Roosters NRL, West Coast, AFL and Bulls in Super Rugby,
  • collect 2.775 units per 3 unit outlayed.
  • Index negative 7.5 points.

The Rugby Championship:

With Reds defeated by Natal Sharks Australia has two extra weeks to prepare for their first match against the All Blacks in Sydney on August 18th. Later that night Pumas play Springboks at Capetown.

Ewan McKenzie might well ask does he really want to takeover from Robbie Deans as Australian Coach at the conclusion of this season. Australia has deep-seated problems, but they definitely will go better in this series than that shown through Super Rugby this year.

With John O’Neil going off to work for Echo Entertainment, things might change. I truly doubt it. Quite frankly the universe of Football would be better off uniting League and Union, rather than all crap about one game being superior. The fight over best talent, is a deep part of the problem. That ain’t going to happen either.

Winning the Southern 4 Nations, is all about home wins and bonus points. Defensive patterns will be better than shown through provincial rugby, and bonus points for 4 tries more rare. Therefore bonus points for narrow away losses tend to determine the ultimate winner. Most expect NZ to win 6 matches, history says they will win 4, 3 home matches and an away win against Argentina. Who can match them. Recent history suggests it will be ever so tight. Who might Argentina have their best match against?

  • My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.
  • Tab Sportsbet is NZ $1.45 Australia $4.75, SA $4.75, Argentina $101.

Super Rugby Semi Finals:

  • Chiefs v Crusaders At Hamilton 5.35pm AEST 28/7/12 My estimate $2.33/$1.75 Actual $2.40/$1.55 Start Chiefs get 3.5 start
  • Stormers v Sharks At Capetown 1.05am AEST 29/7/12 My estimate $1.90/$2.11 Actual $2.50/$1.50 Start Sharks get 4.5 start

Following weekend Super Rugby Series Winner:

  • My Assessment; Stormers $2.75, Chiefs $6.00, Crusaders $3.25, Sharks $6.00.
  • Actual Market Stormers $2.75, Chiefs $4.00, Crusaders $2.50, Sharks $9.00.

I have one of the finalists riding no matter what.

Should Stormers beat Sharks, I have the home team advantage, should Sharks win the final will be played in NZ, which is not real good for me.

Sharks are now 3 very impressive wins on the trot and so are Crusaders. Chiefs are coming off two tough losses to Crusaders at home then Wellington away.

I backed Sharks at the last moment against Reds because @ $2.55 I thought it was generous. That is what I will do again this weekend. Should I get much more than $2.50 on Chiefs I will back them.

I simply do not buy this logic about Crusaders are the only team left who are previous winners therefore have a massive psychological advantage. It might count for some, but not the advantage given by most. Reds won their inaugural Super trophy last year with the home advantage against the Crusaders, and so did Bulls when they first won. Bulls scored 2 tries to Crusaders 1 last Saturday but Bulls committed too many professional fouls in defence and Dan Carter’s deadly boot had the match won by half time. In that match in the second half Bulls elected to run the ball for tries rather than take easy 3 pointers.

These semi finals will both be extremely tight contests and I expect not won before the hooter of fulltime. Sharks seem to enjoy broken play opportunities, and because of time differences I haven’t seen enough of Stormers recently. Stormers winning in the round robin shows great consistency. Go the Chiefs, and go the Stormers. Sharks represent value but I have enough on the game. I might have a side bet.

There is no point whatsoever in talking starts. All 4 teams are simply out there to win. Crusaders are also capable of brilliant tries against the run of play, but I know that Chiefs are worthy opponents.


AFL – Round 18:

  • Essendon (+30.5) v Hawthorn estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $5.00/$1.18
  • Geelong (+7.5) v Adelaide estimate market $2.33/$1.75 Actual $1.62/$2.30
  • North v Melbourne (+42.5) estimate market $1.25/$5.00 Actual $1.09/$7.50
  • GWS v Collingwood estimate market $100/$1.01 Actual $17.00/$1.01
  • Carlton (+5.5) v Richmond estimate market $2.05/$1.95 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • Gold Coast (+52.5) v Sydney estimate market $20.00/$1.05 Actual $11.00/$1.04
  • Port (+29.5) v Fremantle estimate market $4.50/$1.28 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • St Kilda v Footscray (35.5) estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual $1.14/$5.75
  • West Coast v Brisbane (+35.5) estimate market $1.12/$9.00 Actual $1.16/$5.25

Best Bet:

Freo

Value:

Adelaide (Might be crowing), Western Bulldogs (Julia might get a win),

At the Margin:

Western Bulldogs

The Race for the Flag

Sydney Swans

  • Won 13 from 16, losses to Crows R6 14.10.94 – 15.9.99, Richmond R7 8.14.62 – 13.13.91, St Kilda R9 12.11.83 – 16.15.111,
  • Sequence WWWWWLLWLWWbWWWWW 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 11, 3rd 12, 4th 8.
  • Their run home, – Carlton (a), Collingwood (h), Bulldogs (a), Hawks (h), Geelong (a).

Really tough draw, particularly where Geelong could possibly face elimination in round 23, best aspect is Hawks don’t like playing at the SCG. Meet Pies at Olympic Stadium. I predict 4 from 6.

Adelaide

  • Won 13 from 16, losses to Hawthorn R3 12.12 84 – 21.14.140, Collingwood R9 6.13.49 – 10.15.75, North R13 13.11.89 – 17.19.121,
  • Sequence WWLWWWWWLWbLWWWW 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 10, 3rd 11, 4th 11.
  • Their run home, – Essendon (h), Fremantle (h), Brisbane (a), Melbourne (a), Gold Coast (h).

Should win 5 from 6, Geelong this weekend is the toughest match. They lost 2Q to West Coast.

Hawthorn

  • Won 12 from 16, losses to Geelong R2 13.12.90 – 14.9.92, West Coast R4 5.16.46 – 5.21.51, Sydney R5 10.9.69 – 16.10.106, Richmond R9 10.15.75 – 21.11.137,
  • Sequence WLWLLWWWLWWWbWWWW 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 15, 3rd 9, 4th 9.
  • Their run home, – Geelong (h), Port Adelaide (h), Gold Coast, (h), Sydney (a), West Coast (h).

Expected to now go through undefeated, big ask! Took their foot off the gas in 4th qtr against Pies

Collingwood

  • Won 12 from 16, losses to Hawthorn R1 16.19.115 – 20.17.137, Carlton R3 9.8.62 – 18.14.122, Carlton R15 8.14.62 – 12.13.85, Hawks R17 13.13.91 – 21.12.138.
  • Sequence LWLWWWWWWWWbWWLWL 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 10, 3rd 9, 4th 6.
  • Their run home, – St Kilda (h), Sydney (a), North (h), West Coast (a), Essendon (a).

Would want to win every match now, 2 biggies, Sydney and Perth?? Were comprehensively beaten by Hawks, but worryingly lost 2 of last 3.

West Coast Eagles

  • Won 11 from 16, losses to Essendon R7 7.10.52 – 16.17.113, Brisbane Lions R10 15.10.100 – 16.6.102, Collingwood R13 12.10.82 – 12.13.85, Sydney R15 10.9.69 – 18.13.121, Crows R18 11.9.75 – 19.19.124.
  • Sequence WWWWWWLWWLbWLWWLL 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 11, 3rd 9, 4th 11.
  • Their run home, – Brisbane (h), Freo (a), Geelong (h), Port (a), Collingwood (h), Hawks (a).

In 2 weeks dropped from equal 1st to out of the four. Freo is their nemesis, it now looks so tough. Next 2 rounds should see them consolidate in the 8 but very big ask to see them back into the top 4. Focus on injured stars.

Essendon Bombers

  • Won 11 from 16, losses to Collingwood R5 11.13.79 – 11.14.80, Melbourne R10 6.16.52 – 8.10.58, Sydney R11 11.16.82 – 13.8.86, St Kilda R15 8.14.62 – 21.7.133, Geelong R18, Geelong 10.7.67 – 20.14.134,
  • Sequence WWWWLWWWWLLbWWLWWL 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 9, 3rd 8, 4th 9.
  • Their run home, – Adelaide (a), North (h), Carlton (h), Richmond (a), Collingwood (h). Ouch, Ouch, Ouch.

3 wins see them in the final series.

Geelong

  • Won 10 from 16, losses to Fremantle 15.11.101 – 16.9.105, North R3 16.18.114 – 20.11.131, Crows R7 10.12.72 – 19.18.122, Collingwood R8 11.18.84 – 14.12.96, Sydney R13 11.8.74 – 12.8.80, Collingwood R15 10.19.79 – 17.8.110,
  • Sequence LWLWWWLLWWWbLWWLWW 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 9, 3rd 8, 4th 12.
  • Their run home, – Hawthorn (a), West Coast (a), St Kilda (h), Bulldogs (h), Sydney (h). Simply walking on eggshells.

The hiding they gave Bombers might not be enough this test against Adelaide tougher. Massive run home.

North

  • Won 9 from 16, losses to Essendon R1 15.12.102 – 14.20.104, Sydney R4 10.17.77 – 17.11.113, West Coast R6 15.5.95 – 17.18.120, Western Bulldogs R7 12.11.83 – 15.11.101, Port R8 14.9.93 – 14.11.95, Hawthorn R10 9.5.59 – 27.12.174, West Coast R15 13.6.84 – 12.14.86,
  • Sequence LWWLWLLLWLbWWWLWW 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 11, 3rd 8, 4th 6.
  • Their run home, – Bulldogs (h), Essendon (a), Collingwood (a), Fremantle (h), Giants (h).

Tough win over Richmond losing the critical 3rd quarter, they merely make up the numbers.

Fremantle

  • Won 9 from 16, losses to Sydney R2 12.9.81 – 14.10.94, Carlton R5 7.15.57 – 10.5.65, Hawthorn R8 9.9.63 – 17.17. 119, West Coast R9 5.6.36 – 11.18.84, Crows 12.10.82 – 17.9.111, Bombers R13 14.5.89 – 17.11.113, Magpies R14 12.6.78 – 15.17.107.
  • Sequence WLWWLWWLLLWbLLWWW 1st Quarter won 5, 2nd 6, 3rd 11, 4th 11.
  • Their run home, – West Coast (h), Adelaide (a), Richmond (h), North (a), Melbourne (h).

Biggest win was over Geelong in R1. Unlikely to pose serious threat.

Top Four Betting:

  • Adelaide $1.02,
  • Sydney $1.02,
  • Hawthorn $1.04,
  • Collingwood $1.90,
  • West Coast $2.25,
  • Essendon $6.00,
  • Geelong $17.

Final 8 Betting:

  • Hawthorn Not quoted,
  • Adelaide Not quoted,
  • Sydney Not quoted,
  • Collingwood $1.04,
  • West Coast $1.05,
  • Essendon $1.15,
  • Geelong $1.25,
  • North $1.50,
  • St Kilda $1.70,
  • Fremantle $3,
  • Carlton $5,
  • Richmond $15.

Grand Final Betting:

  • Hawthorn $2.75,
  • Swans $4.50,
  • Collingwood, $6,
  • Adelaide $6,
  • West Coast $11,
  • Geelong $17,
  • Essendon $21,
  • St Kilda $21,
  • North $51,
  • Carlton $101 &
  • Freo $251.

NRL Round 21: (Underlined = Forecasted Winner)

  • Saints (+6.5) v Melbourne – estimate market $2.22/$1.80 Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Roosters (+2.5) v Titans – estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.30/$1.65
  • Bulldogs v Cowboys (+4.5) – estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.57/$2.45
  • Manly v Warriors (+5.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.50/$2.65
  • Sharks v Panthers (+5.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Raiders v Knights (+3.5) estimate market $2.02/$1.98 Actual $1.55/$2.50
  • Rabbitohs v Tigers estimate market $1.95/$2.05 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Broncos v Eels estimate market $1.75/$2.33 Actual $1.28/$3.75

Best Bet:

Titans

Value:

Panthers, Knights, Eels, Wests

At the Margin:

TBA.

Top Four Market:

  • Melbourne $1.03,
  • Bulldogs $1.22,
  • Manly $1.50,
  • Broncos $1.75,
  • Souths $1.75,
  • Warriors, $7.00,
  • Cowboys $7.00,
  • Wests Tigers $11.00.

Top Eight Market:

  • Canterbury Not Quoted,
  • Melbourne Not Quoted,
  • Souths Not Quoted,
  • Cowboys $1.03,
  • Broncos $1.03,
  • Manly $1.08,
  • Cronulla $1.30,
  • Wests Tigers, $2.25,
  • Warriors, $2.75,
  • Titans $3.00,
  • Raiders $4.00,
  • Knights $4.50,
  • Saints $11.00.

Wooden Spoon: (most regular season losses);

  • Parramatta $1.40,
  • Penrith $3.00,
  • Roosters $21.

Chookies 1 and a half wins in front, and quoted to make the 8. Please save me.

Grand Final Market:

  • Canterbury $4.50,
  • Melbourne $5.00,
  • Souths $5.50,
  • Cowboys $8,
  • Brisbane $8,
  • Manly $7,
  • Cronulla $21,
  • Wests Tigers $21,
  • Warriors $34,
  • Titans $51,
  • Knights $67,
  • Raiders $81,
  • Saints $101.

I simply have too much too think about to look at any other sports. I believe that Bulldogs v Cowboys is now an absolutely critical match up. That said next week there will be others. Souths will have an excuse against Tigers because of loss of Inglis and Luke. They still need to play strong irrespective. Both Broncos and Melbourne need comprehensive wins. Eels smell blood, and if Melbourne were to lose this then their season would resemble Saints at this time last year.

Betting Summary:

Long Term Positions:

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit) bet placed 19/5/12
  • 2 Units Capetown Stormers to win Super Rugby @ $3.75. Matures 4/8/12
  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.50. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $8. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/12

This Weekend – NRL/AFL:

  • Eels ½ unit to beat depleted Broncos @ $3.75
  • Knights ½ unit to beat Raiders in Canberra @ $2.50
  • Panthers ½ unit to Defeat the Noah’s Arks at Shark Park @ $3.00
  • ½ unit on Titans to defeat Chookies at Allianz @ $1.65
  • ½ unit on Freo to defeat Port Adelaide in Adelaide @ $1.65
  • ½ unit on Western Bulldogs with 35.5 start against Saint Kilda

My bet on Adelaide Crows winning the minor premiership will look wonky should they lose to Geelong, but that as an aside, Hawthorn and Sydney have several tests to come. Should Adelaide win their remaining draw is a cruise. Essendon and Freo and the 3 of the 4 jokes.

I am thinking about backing Cowboys to win NRL premiership. They will be short if they lower Bulldogs colours. I believe the 4 in the preliminary finals will be Bulldogs, Broncos, Cowboys and Souths. Therefore grand final will be from 2 of those.

An interesting thought, what price Adam Reynolds to trifecta Dally M, Rookie of the Year, and leading competition point scorer. I still think Billy Slater amassed enough Dally M points before injury to be in the final count, and Adam Reynolds is 17 points behind Jarrod Croker in point scoring.


EYE-BALL’s Rookie-Bookie …

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  1. big punter
    July 27, 2012 at 3:49 pm

    on the titians will play up some winnings on freemantle or chase losses on freemantle

  2. rookie bookie
    July 28, 2012 at 8:16 am

    Go you Chiefs. I am simply so pleased that Canterbury Crusaders are gone. My first thoughts last night were possibly Chiefs have played their final. Lots of time to think about it.

    Titans had an emphatic win. Storm are in tatters. Even with Slater they had no composure. Gee the Cowboys are cruising. Cowboys v Doggies always was the match of the round.

  3. rookie bookie
    July 28, 2012 at 11:19 am

    I am unable to think about anything except the Cowboys match with the Doggies. The Channel 9 Olympic channel is now some form of distraction. Just looking at the NRL table by tonight there could be 3 equal leaders on the table, and tomorrow Souths could join them. With Titans now 8th Saints equal with Wests, there is not a match this weekend without massive importance. Warriors will fall behind unless they lower Manly’s colours in a replay of last years grand final. Penrith are playing against Sharks to avoid the wooden spoon, similar for Parra while Broncos and Sharks need to stay in touch. The loser of Knights and Raiders can start planning mad monday, while Wests with Ellis back simply must find form. No more excuses. I can see myself having a busy day on side bets.

    Happy Hunting and Good Punting!

  4. rookie bookie
    July 29, 2012 at 1:38 pm

    Sharks defeat Stormers and now play Chiefs for the Super Rugby title in Hamilton. Have not seen the match, but the 7 point margin implies it was a tense match. I expressed yesterday I feel the Chiefs may have played their best in defeating Crusaders. Sharks qualified 6th and until a week out (Round 17) were hardly in the hunt. Qld Reds let them in Round 17 by not securing the bonus point, and Sharks have made every post a winner. Defeating Reds in Brisbane, then Stormers in Capetown.

    Chiefs defeated Sharks 18 12 in Durban when they met earlier this year. Sharks play an exciting game. Previously score line would suggest otherwise. I believe we will see much more attack in this match with tries being scored wide. Therefore the ultimate margin 12 plus points.

    My ratings for the final are Chiefs $1.95 Sharks $2.05. It will be interesting to see how the bookies rate it. Chiefs are slight favourites due to home ground advantage, that is all. Go the Sharks. I have 10 to 1 on the Sharks in this final, but loading my losses on Bulls, Stormers and Brumbies, means I have outlaid 7 to collect 11. I would have been better off simply backing Sharks in this match. I may well do so.

    Bulldogs were impressive in downing the Cowboys. When Canterbury lead 18 – 6, and the Cowboys were able to lock it up again at 18 all I though we were due for a nail biting result, most likely a Cowboys win. Thereafter Bulldogs firstly taking the penalty shot in that scenario and then putting on 2 tries simply blew Cowboys away. This morning most are hailing Bulldogs as the Premiers. The Cowboys are not in the same class. The Bulldogs now have the Broncos in a fortnight, and simply don’t want to drop a match from here. There should be short as minor premiers particularly given the form of Melbourne recently.

    Panthers were backed in heavily after the late withdrawl of Todd Carney to $2.10. I was impressed by the Sharks. Compare that to the flogging they copped from Raiders at Shark Park previous Sunday.

    I need to finish to go and watch the Knights v Raiders now.

    In yesterdays AFL Geelong defeating Adelaide has not left me too devastated. Sydney Swans should be riding high for the minor premiership but have 3 tough matches left in their 5. Collingwood Hawks and Geelong. Hawks have an easier run, but still get Sydney and Perth. During the week I will need to look at the possibility of a tie in the minor premiership.

    More to follow, Happy Hunting and Good Punting.

  5. big punter
    July 29, 2012 at 6:10 pm

    is it rude to burp when drinking champayne

  6. July 29, 2012 at 6:17 pm

    … gloater … hope it gives you the runs … you don’t even give Rookie Bookie a heads up or a thankyou … cab drivers … always looking to take down a ride and look for a free one in return …

    Send him one of the meat pies you’re having with your cheap champagne …

  7. rookie bookie
    July 30, 2012 at 8:43 am

    Sharks 26 points was 2 tries to Stormers 1. Eight penalty goals. After Sharks drew level at 3 all, they never really looked threatened. A fairly comprehensive win. What really surprised me was the Tab Sportsbet prices for next Saturday Chiefs $1.30 Sharks $3.30. I immediately jumped in and invested a further unit. Later ruminating on it I am trying to fathom what it is that they see that I miss. Home advantage is real, Chiefs had a week off before last, Chiefs beat the tallest poppy, but why are Chiefs essentially 3 to 1 on?

    What my inner voice told me was don’t get obsessed, don’t fall in love with the position, it is only a game, there are too many things going on.

    Souths win was emphatic. I truly rated the match even money, and at nil all 15 minutes in when both teams had a perfect completion factor, you could feel the passion and intensity. Tigers cracked, and all of a sudden 20 nil half time. Until I see tonight’s game there is not much more to say about NRL. Chatting with South’s supporters afterwards there is finally believe. A second final series is 22 years. Now for the Titans at Skilled Park.

    In the AFL, Western Bulldogs were woeful. Lost 1st Qtr by 8, second Qtr by 16, 3rd Qtr by 36, and last Qtr by 16. Freo went well. West Coast hammered the Lions, so now we have another Western Derby shaping up next weekend. I would need massive odds to back up on Freo. Good on you big punter. Enjoy your champagne, and burping, if it pleases you.

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