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EYE-BALL Opinion on – Rob Oakeshott – Independent … declares PM Leadership speculation will force his hand…

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Title:
Rob Oakeshott – Independent  …
– Declares PM Leadership will force his hand…
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 20th July 2012 |
The Independent Member for the NSW electorate of  Lyne has issued a warning to the ALP that Leadership speculation will force his hand to bring about an early election.

The ABC news service reported the story with the following commentary –

Oakeshott issues Labor with election threat
| Author: Simon Cullen | Date: July 20, 2012 | Link to On-Line Story. |

Key independent MP Rob Oakeshott has issued a veiled threat to the Labor Party, warning that he will do what he can to bring on an election if it keeps focusing on the leadership issue.

There has been a renewed focus on internal leadership tensions this week following comments by Chief Government Whip Joel Fitzgibbon that Julia Gillard’s job would be under threat if Labor’s poll numbers do not improve.

It has prompted another round of speculation within the labour movement about the Prime Minister’s hold on the top job.

Mr Oakeshott has issued a brief statement saying he continues to focus on the “very full policy agenda” currently before the Parliament.

“But if the Labor Party is more interested in focusing on the next election, then I will do what I can to oblige them with that next election,” he said in the statement.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, a key Gillard backer, has dismissed newspaper reports about leadership tensions as “not worth the paper they’re written on”.

Earlier this week, Ms Gillard refused to be drawn on questions about her leadership by insisting the issue was resolved in February.

That was when Kevin Rudd launched a failed bid to retake the prime ministership – a ballot he lost 71 votes to 31.

At the time, Mr Rudd said he accepted the result and would dedicate himself fully to Ms Gillard’s re-election as Prime Minister.

But some in Labor believe Mr Rudd still harbours leadership ambitions and could be persuaded to return to the prime ministership, but they add that he would not be willing to accept the job under any circumstances.

Comment:

The question is more than the obvious – Oakeshott will not win his seat at the next election whether it happens sooner or later – TAB NSW Sports Bet have the betting for the seat of Lyne –

So the question on Oakeshott having any re-election motive to force an early election is not shared by the Bookmakers odds.  Oakeshott presents himself as creditable whenever he speaks in the House or outside with the media.

His motive is generated by distraction within the House and his perception that he wants to do good Government work and those efforts are frustrated by the Leadership speculation and the ALP’s want to play ‘piggy in the middle’ – the piggy being Gillard and everybody else playing around her and not with her.

Oakeshott has not really come to terms with the role he plays in the Minority Government – his single vote is required by the ALP to maintain office – he knows this and yet he seems to play fair in the game.  He does not appear to have an agenda – not using his position to leverage deals out of the Government like the Greens – but then Oakeshott has no sway with the Senate.

Oakeshot just seems to be a genuine Politician trying to deal with a minority Government – in other words he is the type of Politician driven by the greater good rather than the political gain game.

The broadside issued today is aimed at the ALP – leave Gillard alone.  This is where his connect with the electorate earns him his long-odds to hold his seat at the next election.  He does not see the damage being done – the popular view – the venom in which voters want to spray all over Gillard.

He has his reasons – but he also needs to be a realist – being in bed with Gillard means you are gonna get screwed bigtime.  Perhaps Oakeshott is naive enough to think that he will escape the Gillard curse … well someone needs to tap him on the shoulder and tell him that he needs to man up and listen to the electorate.


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  1. David the Pragmatist.
    July 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm

    My understanding is that if can come to terms with Abbott, then Abott could go the GG and propose to form a government based on his stated support.
    That would be a much smarter move by Oakshot, who could weadle out a deal with the liberals not to stand anyone against him. The reality is the ALP will be decimated at the next election and Oakshot would not get in the way as an independant. That said any other independant the coalition support or for that matter anyone else other than an ALP candidate would kick his arse anyway. My guess that a blind, deaf man with no education who has been living as a hermit at the end of the Hastings river would out poll Oakshot.
    What a terrible legacy he will leave his constituents and his family when he is finally outed.

    I hope all these independants and for that matter the greens as well, one day realise the damage that has been done by the morons currently in government and who are so determined to see out their term in the full knowledge that they have no chance of winning an election, even against an equally moronic Abott and Bishop (god help us). It is just at least we know that coalition policies will not be changed by faceless people through the course of government and at least they will have the nounce to deal with the economic issues that Australia has so desperately need since the outing of Rudd and the ascension of Swan on his wave of hot air and ignorance.
    Get the dollar down and the car industry will have a chance not to mention the rest of whats left of manufacturing,the tourist industry and small business. An increase of GST by 10% and a eqivalent income and corporate tax cut of equal proportions along with the the same increases in welfare will knock the “shit” out of the dollar, get property and inflation going and give us a chance to beat deflation which is the silent killer in our economy.

    The unemployment situation that emanates from the public service being cut in half can be made up by the emergence of these industries and the legal system can be awash with all the lawyers that are employed in ASIC, APRA,AUSTRAC, ACCC and other hangers on. We can then spend some education dollars on doctors, nurses and ambulances. Give Christmas Island to the Indonesians and promote doctors and similarly educated people out of Britain and Europe…..until we catch up!

  2. Commonsense Bloke
    July 20, 2012 at 4:15 pm

    Who is this david the pragmatist bloke, he talks so much shit but in this case he might be on to something. i do not know if the government can be changed without an election, but wether they can or not, the other ideas he has seem pretty smart! I just normally read this site when I get a chance and haven’t commented before but this david prick is on the right track.

  3. July 20, 2012 at 4:47 pm

    Well David – that is a wide arc you just swept everybody with …

    10% tax cuts, replaced with GST increase of same worth – you obviously agree with ‘EYE-BALL Guru’ on the high A$ legacy Swan owns … but I don’t get how 10% tax cuts and a GST increase will achieve that in the context you presented …

    On the car industry – this and previous Governments have always subsidised the car industry, the airline industry, but offered nothing to farmers other than drought and flood relief, and the miners – well they get screwed all the time.

    It’s not OK to spray the economy with an Uzi … and say ‘survival of the fittest’ … your throw aways to ‘welfare’ seems distant and an afterthought at best – I realise that as the burden to fund the welfare cost falls increasingly on more youthful employed persons, their willingness to embrace their elders and support them challenges their lifestyle choices.

    With your comments above you’ve given more than a haircut – I’d say that if by accident you decapitated almost everybody who can’t stand up straight or measures shorted than your height measure.

    Light-bulb moments give us the ideas – the research to find out what the ‘lightbulb’ moment was really saying is the real ask … much of what you have said has merit – but unless you see yourself as GOD – with the almighty hand of Zeus to do his bidding – then you might just as well be in an empty carpark with a loud hailer …

    I can hear you and can see the macro context and agree with most … I would probably even pay money to come to one of your motivational lectures on ‘how to fix the world’ … let me know when you next appear …

    EYE-BALL.

  4. July 20, 2012 at 5:09 pm

    Welcome ‘Commonsense Bloke’ – your contribution is welcome – you’ll find more than friendly banter if that is what you’re looking for. Just a headsup – David the Pargmatist is a loose cannon who fires blanks most of the time …

  5. big punter
    July 21, 2012 at 2:24 pm

    commonsen says david talks shit and is a prick but might be on to something and is on the right track thats commonsence ! !

  6. gerry hatrick
    July 24, 2012 at 4:40 am

    When I have watched both Windsor and Oakschott they do not like Abbott. Moreover they tacitly endorse the status quo. Windsor says it is imperative for the parliament to run its course, and for the elected to make it work. That was until speculation last week about rolling the PM. On that Windsor warned if Gillard is rolled we will go to the polls.

    Wilkie is different. He had every reason to switch alliance after the broken promise on mandatory pre-commitment but settled for a trial in ACT until the next parliament. He should be incensed at the manipulations to get Slipper into the role of speaker to make him irrelevant, and thereby compromise his representation of Denison.

    A double dissolution will see the greens reduced. With up to 20% as low as 12% vote in each state at the last election how many senators would be re elected? In their most popular state Tassie they would get 2, in all other states they would get 1 fighting for preferences to get a second. In the current scenario where conservatives would sweep to power, it is hard to tell whether Liberals could get 34 of 76 senate seats. Maybe in states like Qld and WA Greens would get none. Opinion polls are all based on MHR count, two party preferred. Adam Brandt would lose Melbourne. ALP threats to put Greens last on preferences is simply another level of complexity.

    A double dissolution would help the conservatives.

    A no confidence motion would lead to a double dissolution or only Lower house? If the Upper House was not dissolved then they are not due to go to polls till after July next year (term to start July 2014).

    For me, the big issue is that the electorate is sick of a good policy vacuum & outcome at the expense of cheap and nasty and divisive politicking. Fix the asylum issues amongst other contentious issues! Clean up the ethical issues!

  7. louboutin
    July 29, 2012 at 6:37 am

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