Home > The EYE-BALL Herman O'HERMITAGE, The EYE-BALL Rookie Bookie, The EYE-BALL SportsZone > EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 20th – 23rd July, 2012

EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 20th – 23rd July, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
20th July – 23rd July, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3
  • 20th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 463.7
  • 27th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7
  • 4th July 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7
  • 11th July 2012 – Vaue of GI – (+) 352.47
  • 18th July 2012 – Vaue of GI – (+) 335.80

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 13th – 16th July.

My wager from 19/5/12 on Brumbies to win Super Rugby is now worthless. Negative ½ unit index goes backward 16.67 points.

I am still shocked over Brumbies. There is so much info to absorb. All is going good, but it is also so fragile.

Weekend 20th – 23rd July. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby –

The Rugby Championship

  • My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.
  • Tab Sportsbet is NZ $1.50 Australia $4.50, SA $4.50, Argentina $101.

 Super Rugby Finals Series

The market before round 17; Canterbury Crusaders $3.50, Capetown Stormers $3.50, Waikato Chiefs $3.75, Pretoria Bulls $8 and Qld Reds $9, Brumbies $10 and Natal Sharks $26. Wellington is $51.

 The Market before round 18;

Waikato Chiefs $3.25, Canterbury Crusaders $3.25, Capetown Stormers $3.50, Brumbies $7.50, Pretoria Bulls $15, and Natal Sharks $15. Qld Reds $34 and Wellington is $67.

My Assessment; Stormers $3, Chiefs $4, Crusaders $5, Bulls $8, Reds $8, Sharks $10. Actual Stormers $3, Crusaders $3.25, Chiefs $4, Reds $7, Bulls $19, Sharks $17.

Qualifiers

Crusuders v Bulls At Christchurch 5.35pm AEST 21/7/12 My estimate $1.75/$2.42 Actual $1.16/$4.75 Previous Match Bulls beat Crusaders 32 – 30 in Pretoria

Reds v Sharks At Brisbane (Suncorp) 7.40pm AEST 21/7/12 My estimate $1.75/$2.42 Actual $1.45/$2.65 Previous Match Sharks beat Reds 27 – 22 in Durban

Both underdogs are fair value. A Bulls win will see them scorch into calculations for the title, then to play Stormers or Chiefs? Reds likely to play without Quade Cooper.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 17

  • Geelong v Essendon estimate market $1.85/$2.18 Actual $2.00/$1.80
  • Collingwood v Hawthorn estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.75/$2.05
  • Adelaide v West Coast estimate market $2.02/$1.98 Actual $1.50/$2.50
  • Gold Coastv Brisbane estimate market $1.33/$4.00 Actual $1.30/$3.45
  • Footscray v Carlton estimate market $2.40/$1.76 Actual $3.15/$1.45
  • Demons v Port estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $2.30/$1.60
  • Swans v St Kilda estimate market $1.50/$3.00 $1.35/$3.15
  • Richmond v North estimate market $2.20/$1.82 Actual $2.30/$1.60
  • Fremantle v GWSestimate market $1.12/$9.00 Actual $1.01/$15.

Best Bet:

TBA -Need to see Judiciary and Teams

Value:

TBA – Need to see Judiciary and Teams

At the Margin:

TBA – Need to see Judiciary and Teams

Note: This is close to end of the line for Geelong Cats – reigning premiers. In Qtr 1 they are typically slow away, Essendon not much better. Geelong come home stronger on 4th Qtr. This is their only match in 2012. I really feel Geelong will show up, but Bombers also know the important of this match. A ref’s call will possibly decide momentum. Much the same holds for Crows v Eagles. The leader at Quarter time will have momentum. In Pies v Hawks I like Hawks but must see who is in or out.

Grand Final Betting:

  • 28th June – Hawthorn $3.25, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50 & Swans $8
  • 5th July – Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $13, Geelong $15

The Race for the Flag

Sydney Swans

  • 12 from 15, losses to Crows R6 14.10.94 – 15.9.99, Richmond R7 8.14.62 – 13.13.91, St Kilda R9 12.11.83 – 16.15.111,
  • Sequence WWWWWLLWLWWbWWWW 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 10, 3rd 11, 4th 7.
  • Their run home, – St Kilda (h), Gold Coast (a), Carlton (a), Collingwood (h), Bulldogs (a), Hawks (h), Geelong (a). 16 wins Plus??

Adelaide

  • Won 12 from 15, losses to Hawthorn R3 12.12 84 – 21.14.140, Collingwood R9 6.13.49 – 10.15.75, North R13 13.11.89 – 17.19.121,
  • Sequence WWLWWWWWLWbLWWW 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 10, 3rd 10, 4th 10.
  • Their run home, – West Coast (h), Geelong (a), Essendon (h), Fremantle (h), Brisbane (a), Melbourne (a), Gold Coast (h). 16 wins Plus??

Collingwood

  • Won 12 from 15, losses to Hawthorn R1 16.19.115 – 20.17.137, Carlton R3 9.8.62 – 18.14.122, Carlton R15 8.14.62 – 12.13.85,
  • Sequence LWLWWWWWWWWbWWLW 1st Quarter won 12, 2nd 10, 3rd 9, 4th 5.
  • Their run home, – Hawthorn (h), GWS (a), St Kilda (h), Sydney (a), North (h), West Coast (a), Essendon (a). 5 very tough matches, no guarantees against North at this stage.

Hawthorn

  • Won 11 from 15, losses to Geelong R2 13.12.90 – 14.9.92, West Coast R4 5.16.46 – 5.21.51, Sydney R5 10.9.69 – 16.10.106, Richmond R9 10.15.75 – 21.11.137,
  • Sequence WLWLLWWWLWWWbWWW 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 14, 3rd 8, 4th 9.
  • Their run home, – Collingwood (a), Essendon (a), Geelong (h), Port Adelaide (h), Gold Coast, (h), Sydney (a), West Coast (h). Also 5 very searching match ups.

West Coast Eagles

  • Won 11 from 15, losses to Essendon R7 7.10.52 – 16.17.113, Brisbane Lions R10 15.10.100 – 16.6.102, Collingwood R13 12.10.82 – 12.13.85, Sydney R15 10.9.69 – 18.13.121,
  • Sequence WWWWWWLWWLbWLWWL 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 10, 3rd 9, 4th 11.
  • Their run home, – Adelaide (a), Brisbane (h), Freo (a), Geelong (h), Port (a), Collingwood (h), Hawks (a).

Essendon Bombers

  • Won 11 from 15, losses to Collingwood R5 11.13.79 – 11.14.80, Melbourne R10 6.16.52 – 8.10.58, Sydney R11 11.16.82 – 13.8.86, St Kilda R15 8.14.62 – 21.7.133
  • Sequence WWWWLWWWWLLbWWLW 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 9, 3rd 8, 4th 9.
  • Their run home, – Geelong (a),Hawthorn (h), Adelaide (a), North (h), Carlton (h), Richmond (a), Collingwood (h).

Geelong

  • Won 9 from 15, losses to Fremantle 15.11.101 – 16.9.105, North R3 16.18.114 – 20.11.131, Crows R7 10.12.72 – 19.18.122, Collingwood R8 11.18.84 – 14.12.96, Sydney R13 11.8.74 – 12.8.80, Collingwood R15 10.19.79 – 17.8.110,
  • Sequence LWLWWWLLWWWbLWWL 1st Quarter won 6, 2nd 8, 3rd 7, 4th 11.
  • Their run home, – Essendon (h), Adelaide (h), Hawthorn (a), West Coast (a), St Kilda (h), Bulldogs (h), Sydney (h).

St Kilda

  • Won 8 from 15, losses to Port Adelaide R1 13.7.85 – 13.11.89,Fremantle R4 11.13.79 – 14.8.92, Hawthorn R6 13.10.88 – 18.15.123, West Coast R8 13.13 91 – 19.13.121, Richmond R10 16.17.113 – 18.13.121, Crows R12 16.15.111 – 17.13.115, North R14 15.13.103 – 21.10.136,
  • Sequence LWWLWLWLWLWLbLW 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 8, 3rd 10, 4th 10.
  • Their run home, – Sydney (a), Footscray (h), Collingwood (a), Demons (h), Geelong (a), GWS (h), Carlton (a). Good chance of 7th or 8th, but not good value.

North

  • Won 8 from 15, losses to Essendon R1 15.12.102 – 14.20.104, Sydney R4 10.17.77 – 17.11.113, West Coast R6 15.5.95 – 17.18.120, Western Bulldogs R7 12.11.83 – 15.11.101, Port R8 14.9.93 – 14.11.95, Hawthorn R10 9.5.59 – 27.12.174, West Coast R15 13.6.84 – 12.14.86,
  • Sequence LWWLWLLLWLbWWWL 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 10, 3rd 8, 4th 5.
  • Their run home, – Richmond (h), Melbourne (h), Bulldogs (h), Essendon (a), Collingwood (a), Fremantle (h), Giants (h).

Fremantle –

  • Won 8 from 15, losses to Sequence 1st Quarter won 4, 2nd 5, 3rd 10, 4th 10.
  • Their run home, –

 Richmond

  • Won 7 from 15, losses to Carlton R1 12.9.81 – 18.17.125, Collingwood R2 8.16.64 – 12.13.85, Geelong R4 9.11.65 – 11.9.75, West Coast R5 14.13.97 – 16.11.107, Essendon R8 15.19.109 – 19.14.128, Fremantle R11 9.12.66 – 12.6.78, Crows R14 13.9.87 – 17.4.106, Gold Coast R15 13.10.88 – 13.12.90,
  • Sequence LLWLLWWLWWLWbLWL 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 2, 3rd 11, 4th 6.
  • Their run home, – North (a), Carlton (a), Brisbane (h), Footscray (h), Fremantle (a), Essendon (h), Port (h).

 Carlton

  • Won 7 from 15, losses to Essendon R4 11.13.79 – 15.19.109, St Kilda R7 14.14.98 – 19.8.122, Adelaide R8 9.7.55 – 19.10.124, Port Adelaide R10 6.9.45 – 14.15.99, Geelong R11 11.19.85 – 14.13.97, West Coast R12 10.9.69 – 10.19.79, Hawthorn R14 10.10.70 – 18.12.120, North R15 14.12.96 – 24.5.149,
  • Sequence WWWLWWLLWLLLbLWL 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 5, 3rd 6, 4th 9.
  • Their run home, – Footscray (a), Richmond (h), Sydney (h), Lions (h), Essendon (a), Gold Coast (a), St Kilda (h).

Top Four Betting

Sydney $1.05, Adelaide $1.10, Hawthorn $1.15, Collingwood $1.75, West Coast $1.80, Essendon $2.75.

Final 8 Betting

Hawthorn Not quoted, Adelaide Not quoted, Sydney Not quoted, West Coast $1.02, Collingwood $1.02, Essendon $1.07, St Kilda $1.50, North $1.75, Geelong $2.50, Fremantle $3, Carlton $6, Richmond $6,.

Minor Premiership;

Sydney $2, Hawthorn $3.75, Adelaide $3.75, Collingwood $9

Grand Final Betting

  • As at 4th of July Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $13, Geelong $15
  • As at July 11th, Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $5, West Coast $5.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $11, Geelong $15, Essendon $15, St Kilda $17 & Carlton $26.
  • As at July 17th, Hawthorn $3.25, Collingwood, $4, Swans $5, West Coast $7.50, Adelaide $8, Essendon $11, St Kilda $21, Geelong $34, North $51 & Carlton $67.

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NRL – Round 20 –

  • Manly v Bulldogs – estimate market $1.80/$2.25
  • Titans v Broncos – estimate market $1.33 /$4.00
  • Eels v Storm – estimate market $1.60/$2.67
  • Warriors v Knights – estimate market $4.00/$1.33
  • Rabbitohs v Saints estimate market $1.90/$2.12
  • Sharks v Raiders estimate market $2.50/$1.67
  • Panthers v Chookies estimate market $1.40/$3.50
  • Cowboys v Tigers estimate market $3.00/$1.50

Best Bet:

TBA – Need to see Judiciary and Teams

Value:

TBA – Need to see Judiciary and Teams

At The Margin:

TBA – Need to see Judiciary and Teams

The Money End of the Season – The Race for the Finals.

Storm

  • Won 12 from 17, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20, Raiders R18 12 – 40, Cowboys R19 16 – 20,
  • Their Sequence WWWWWWWWWLbWWLWLbLL
  • Their run home, – Eels (a), Saints (a), Panthers (h), Titans (h), Broncos (a), Sharks (h), Tigers (a).

Bulldogs

  • Won 12 from 17, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
  • Their Sequence WWWLWLLLWLWWWbWWbW
  • Their run home, – Manly (a), Cowboys (h), Knights (a), Broncos (h), Tigers (h), Raiders (a), Roosters (h).

Broncos

  • Won 11 from 167, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WLWWWWWWLLbLWWLWLbW
  • Their run home, – Titans (a), Eels (h), Raiders (a), Bulldogs (a), Storm (h), Manly (a), Panthers (h).

Souths

  • Won 11 from 17, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs R13 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26,
  • Sequence LLWLWWLWWbWWLbWLWWW
  • Their run home, – Saints (h), Tigers (h), Titans (a), Manly (h), Sharks (a), Eels (h), Knights (a).

Sharks

  • Won 10 from 17 & a Draw, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17 Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels R13 20 – 29, Draw Easts R18, Saints R19 10 – 18,
  • Their Sequence LLWWWWWWLWLbLWbWWDL
  • Their run home, – Raiders (h), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Knights (a), Souths (h), Storm (a), Cowboys (h).

Cowboys

  • Won 10 from 17, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35,
  • Their Sequence LWWLWLWLWWWLLbWWLbW
  • Their run home, – Tigers (h), Bulldogs (a), Manly (h), Warriors (h), Saints (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a).

Manly

  • Won 10 from 17, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26,Knights R19 6 – 34,
  • Their Sequence WWLLLWLWWWWLWbLWbWL
  • Their run home, – Bulldogs (h), Warriors (h), Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Titans (a).

Tigers

  • Won 9 from 17, losses to Manly R2 18 –22 Saints R3 12 – 36 Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38, Bulldogs 20 – 32,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWWWWbWWWLLbLW
  • Their run home, – Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Eels (h), Saints (h), Bulldogs (a), Roosters (a), Storm (h).

Warriors

  • Won 8 from 17, losses to Manly R1 20 – 26, Bulldogs R3 18. –32, Roosters R5 8 – 26, Raiders R6 12 – 32, Storm R8 14 –32,Wests R11 22 – 24, Storm R13 12 –22, Sharks R15 19 – 20, Broncos R19 8 – 10,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLLWLWWLbLWLbWWL
  • Their run home, – Knights (h), Manly (a), Sharks (h), Cowboys (a), Panthers (h), Saints (a), Raiders (h). Must win 6 from 9, 4 are at home. Aiming for 7th or 8th.

Saints

  • Won 8 from 17, losses to Bulldogs R2 4 – 30, Broncos R5 20 – 28, Sharks R6 0 – 12, Cowboys R9 6 – 30, Panthers R10 12 – 13, Souths R11 18 – 19, Manly R13 8 –.20, Bulldogs R15 20 – 28, Raiders R17 18 – 22,
  • Their Sequence WLWWLLWWLLLWLbLWLbW
  • Their run home, – Souths (a), Storm (h), Roosters (a), Tigers (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h), Eels (a).

 Raiders

  • Won 7 from 17, losses to Storm R1 19 – 24, Roosters R3 8 – 14, Cowboys R5 6 – 22, Broncos R7 6 – 30, Sharks R8 22 – 44, Manly R9 12 – 18, Souths R12 18 – 36, Tigers R13 0 – 40, Cowboys R16 18 – 40, Titans R19 26 – 38,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLWLLLWbLLWbLWWL
  • Their run home, – Sharks (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Panthers (a), Easts (h), Bulldogs (a), Warriors (a).

Top Four Market;

Melbourne $1.05, Bulldogs $1.05, Broncos $1.45, Souths $1.55, Manly $2.50, Sharks $3.50, Cowboys $6.00, Wests Tigers $8.00, Warriors, $9.00.

Top Eight Market;

Melbourne Not Quoted, Canterbury Not Quoted, Broncos $1.02, Souths $1.02, Manly $1.06, Cronulla $1.15, Wests Tigers, Cowboys $1.22, Warriors, $1.60, $1.30, Saints $6.00, Knights $13.00, Titans $17.00, Raiders $21.00, Roosters $26.00.

Wooden Spoon (most regular season losses);

Parramatta $1.18, Penrith $4.50.

Grand Final Market;-

Melbourne $4.50, Canterbury $4.50, Manly $6.00, Brisbane $6.00, South Sydney $7, North Queensland $15.00, West’s Tigers $15.00, Cronulla $17, Warriors $21.

 ________________________________________

Tennis

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Soccer

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Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit) bet placed 19/5/12
  • 2 Units Capetown Stormers to win Super Rugby @ $3.75. Matures 4/8/12
  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.50. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Brisbane Broncos to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.50. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/12

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    July 17, 2012 at 4:33 pm

    In Reviewing my work, I have backed Broncos at $8 to win premiership not $5.50, and my bet on Bulldogs was @ $5. It appears Bulldogs attracted serious money late last week, before Storm’s loss to Cowboys.

    With Billy Slater back this weekend you would expect Storm to return to winners circle. Their real challenges are rounds 24 to 26. A win this weekend against Parra (it really doesnt matta) will see them qualify for the finals. Manly expect Brett Stewart back, but Canterbury just keep growing stronger in every match. I don’t believe Titans are a realistic chance at all. That said at Robina they want the prized scalp of Broncos. On paper Titans should be right in it, but Broncos just appear to be so disciplined, I expect Broncos to win by 4+.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    July 17, 2012 at 10:37 pm

    Snoop Poop has called to tell me I got my estimate markets on NRL way out.
    Manly v Canterbury I expect, Manly $2.25 Bulldogs $1.80
    Titans v Broncos – estimate market $2.50/$1.67
    Eels v Storm – estimate market $3.00/$1.50
    Warriors v Knights – estimate market $1.33/$4.00
    Rabbitohs v Saints estimate market $1.90/$2.12
    Sharks v Raiders estimate market $1.50/$3.00
    Panthers v Chookies estimate market $2.50/$1.67
    Cowboys v Tigers estimate market $5.25/$1.80

    It is very important for me to do this analysis before seeing the markets, so that I can assess why I am wrong or assess what I may overlook. The NRL markets will be now available on Tab Sportsbet but not starts. They install early tentative prices to see what the punters want, then put up starts and fractionally tighten and trend their markets. Most wagers are not laid until at least Thursday, more often Friday or Saturday. It would be interesting to see if they would stand say a $10,000 bet early on, the betting agencies would seek a live price from one of their market makers. Pretty easy when you have disclosed your side.

  3. Rookie Bookie
    July 19, 2012 at 10:05 am

    Judiciary issues appear to be settled. Judd (Carlton – AFL) got 4 weeks with a heavy loading, Quade Cooper (Reds – Super Rugby) will not appeal his one match ban because it will disrupt teanm preparations, Casiano (Bulldogs – NRL) exonerated and free to play, Luke (Rabbitohs – NRL) gets three weeks for lifting Shaun Kenny-Dowall.

    On Super Rugby, I have highlighted sufficiently these are both even money matches with slight favouritism to home team. I was not impressed by the Reds effort against NSW last Saturday, and they have been walking on eggshells for the last 4 weeks. That is the lot of any team in any code, one slip and it is over. Sharks have been playing with great momentum. I have backed Sharks earlier and will simply watch the match. In the case of Crusaders Bulls I have already put a half unit on Bulls to win Super Rugby @ $18. I did that yesterday. My thoughts are in successive matches Chiefs in Hamilton are much more vulnerable than Stormers in Capetown. The highest place winner will meet Chiefs and the other winner play in Capetown. Nothing else this weekend in Rugby.

    In NRL there are 4 super matches, and four not so critical. Manly Bulldogs at Brookie is Manly’s great chance. They know it, and Bulldogs are the superior team, right now. Much is being asked about where is Keiran Foran? In their shock loss to Knights I highlight how Choc Watmough plays with noticeable less intensity. Knights also scored their typical tries, not in the style of Bennett controlled sets of six. Wild passes that when they work, are champagne stuff, and when they fail are reckless and stupid. This match will determine whether Manly stays in touch with the top 4. Canterbury score from outside the oppositions 20 becvause they are not practicing that boring set of 6 stuff. A bust out wide, early in the tackle count catches the defence out and they can’t recover in time before the try is scored. See Adam Reynolds winning try for Souths against Easts. Ben Barba does it all the time, and Greg Inglis does it at will. Some are calling it greater attacking options. It is something else. While I like the thought of backing Bulldogs at $2.35, with Stagg replacing Halatau, I think I will be happy to watch. Doggies to be in front by 10 after 20 minutes and Manly to play themselves back into it with a narrow deficit at half time.

    Wests and Cowboys is the next biggy. Cowboys at home. Simplistically Wests are locked into battle with Warriors for 8th spot. Cowboys are realistic chance for top 4. Tigers sequence of WLLLLLWWWWWWWLLLW sums it up pretty well. They struggle without Farah and Ellis. Thurston’s football brain v Marshall, I will have Thurston any day. Tigers to score here first with Cowboys hitting straight back. I tend to favour Cowgirls, but so too do betting odds. NQ is close to my best bet, but there are easier matches.

    Souths v Saints is another real toughie. Saints are much better proposition than odds would suggest. With Peats replacing Luke at number 9, Souths are in a lot of trouble. Luke will be back for the match against Manly in round 23. Saints beat Souths in Charity Shield and Reynolds kicked a golden drop goal in round 11 for Souths to win that match. Souths looked truly beaten on Monday night having surrendered an 8 point lead and being 10 points behind with 10 minutes to go. I was at Souths on Chalmers and the place went wild when then won. (It is a funny thing, we rabbitohs would never pay $20 for a Easts home match, it is not the money, it is the concept of they don’t need our money, to further choke us with). Souths forwards were simply weak. Crocker great, Sam Burgess doing the work of 2, Luke great, but where were the others. I hardly noticed Pettybourne, and Luke Burgess is half that of his brother Sam. This week Ben Lowe and David Tyrrell have again been selected on the bench, but we will have to wait and see if they got the message from being dropped.

    In the Titans Broncos I am confident of Broncos but know Titans believe in themselves. Broncos are in my top 3, and how or why Titans allowed the Raiders back into last Sunday’s clash is beyond me. Bailey, Harrison and Miles are in but Bird out, it comes down to structure and backs. Broncos get repeat sets of six in opposition 20 and rely on bombs or corner kicks to score.

    As for the rest, Easts are a shade of value in a match of little consequence. Panthers appear to be settling down after their massive discipline clear out, but it will end up costing them the under 20’s title. Warriors must defeat the Knights, and I will not buy Knights as serious contenders. Not this year. Bennett still wants to effect player rotation, So does Smith at Easts.

    If Storm lose to Eels they are not serious at all. They too are a good bet. As for Sharks they have just got to hang in there. They were well beaten by Saints, by Raiders were weak against Titans.

  4. Rookie Bookie
    July 19, 2012 at 10:32 am

    Last post got too long and would not allow me to continue.

    My top 4 are Canterbury, Broncos, Storm and Cowboys in that order.

    To make up the 8 include Souths, Manly, Sharks, Tigers and Warriors. Who will drop out? Each of those 5 are somewhat vulnerable but Souths are virtually in and Manly, Sharks as well. Manly or Souths both could fit into top 4 if all goes well. I guess Wests don’t deserve a spot, and the same can be said for Warriors. Warriors on ther day should repeat last year but they are so poor away from home.

    Beyond that, I expect Canterbury and Brisbane to be first into the Preliminary finals. I can’t pick their opponents but feel Warriors have the all over skill to get there. the 4th team is just too hard.

    In AFL the first 6 is already established. Crows, Swans, Weagles, Magpies, Hawks and Bombers. Thereafter I can’t leave out Cats, and while 8th hardly matters, throw in North, who cares. I guess I want Freo to get into the 8, but they hardly deserve the chance. Reiwoldt at Richmond is so much like the Sydney Tigers. You can’t simply turn it on and turn it off, and expect to win tight ones. Carlton without Judd, will struggle, and St Kilda were always going to struggle in 2012. Note Carlton have inflicted 2 of Collingwood’s 3 losses. For the GF I think Swans or Weagles or Adelaide will play Collingwood. Hawks are as false favourites as Storm in NRL. Weagles have injury worries, but in their coach they have something special. While I have backed Crows to win the minor premiership, I don’t think they have the class to win the big one, not in comparison to a full strength Weagles or Swans. I have expressed I don’t like the Swans, and it too often impairs my judgement. If it was to be Swans or Weagles v Collingwood, go Sydney or Perth. If it was Crows v Collingwood it would be Magpies flag.

    Other than bet on Bulls to win Super Rugby, more bets tomorrow.

    Good Hunting and Happy Punting

  5. Rookie Bookie
    July 19, 2012 at 6:53 pm

    With Steve Kearney now sacked by the Eels I expect Parramatta wil be substantially backed, Where I said Melbourne should win this makes it much closer to even money. Caretaker coaches always get immediate improvement from a team. There are several theories, playing for contracts, play natural game, players attitiudes etc

  6. Rookie Bookie
    July 20, 2012 at 8:02 pm

    Despite going to press rather late, I have resisted all temptation to back either Bulldogs or Broncos tonight. I feel that I am better off backing both teams to win the title rather than the very vexed make up tonight.

    Searching for bet best this weekend was clearly not easy. So many results are not really critical to 2012, they are internal politics, where tonights Eels announcement over coaching is so tough to interpret.

    I have backed Parramatta 1/2 unit to upset the Storm @ $3.85 in NRL.
    I have Roosters 1 unit to beat Panthers @ $2.10 in NRL.
    I have West Coast 1/2 unit against Crows @ $2.75 in AFL.
    I have North Melbourne 1/2 unit to defeat Richmond Tigers @ $1.70 in AFL
    As stated earlier I have Bulls 1/2 unit to win Super Rugby on 4/8/12 at $18.

    It has been a massive week of speculation and market movements. I can only trust anyone with money at stake, cleans out the bookies. Bulls have blown since my bet on Wednesday from $18 to $21. Saints in NRL are expected to either Beat Souths or go ever so close. Manly at Brrokvale are expected to beat Canterbury. Bulldogs have same time been backed to win premiership. It is all difficult to absorb There is so much more, but simply

    Good hunting and happy punting!

  7. big punter
    July 21, 2012 at 2:11 pm

    interest on nz warriors serious bet on nq warriors

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