Home > The EYE-BALL Herman O'HERMITAGE, The EYE-BALL Rookie Bookie, The EYE-BALL SportsZone > EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 13th – 16th July, 2012

EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 13th – 16th July, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
13th July – 16th July, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3
  • 20th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 463.7
  • 27th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7
  • 4th July 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7
  • 11th July 2012 – Vaue of GI – (+) 352.47

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 6th – 9th July.

Last Weekend – ½ unit on Brumbies @ $2, and Stormers all up Reds collects $1.664 for $3 outlaid. Melbourne Storm crucified me.  The Sharks result sees ticket halved, but immaterial as Storm lost. 88.8% return therefore lose 11.2 index points

The media is all chatter about Canberra Raiders who are on 7 wins from 17 matches need to win 6 from 8 to play in finals. They did it in 2010 winning 7 from last 8. Below is their match ups. From the below, you might see many things. Canterbury Bulldogs continue to find a winning way. Some say the 1st half against Wests Tigers was very scrappy. They still settled down in second half for the match against a committed team. I was personally not impressed by Manly talking their foot off the gas against Parramatta. Warriors were cliniical in their di-section of Titans.

Super Rugby is really coming to a climax. If Chiefs who have now lost Sonny Boy Williams back to NRL are to have any chance, they must win well against Wellington Hurricanes. I simply don’t think Reds are real, but have considered the $26 available. If they sneak in they might easily roll the Brumbies, but then have to beat Capetown in Capetown to make the final against ?

A strange aside is that when Federer won his 7th Wimbledon all accolades were for the loser, Andy Murray. In the State of Origin was there a similar feeling towards NSW. I only noted good sportsmanship from QLD. Compare that to the bad sports in Euro Cup. The Italian captain Baloletti just wanted to vent anger while others just cried uncontrollably.


Weekend 13th – 16th July. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 18

  • Hurricanes (+4.5) v Chiefs (in Wellington) My estimate $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.50/$1.50
  • Brumbies v Auckland Blues (+7.5) (in Canberra) My estimate $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.36/$3.00
  • Crusaders v Force (+25.5) (in C’church) My estimate $1.25/$4.00 Actual $1.01/$13.00
  • Reds v Waratahs (+7.5) (in Brisbane) My estimate $1.75/$2.33 Actual$1.35/$3.10
  • Stormers v Rebels (+19.5) (in Capetown) My estimate $1.25/$4.00 Actual $1.04/$9.50
  • Sharks v Cheetahs (+14.5) (in Durban) My estimate $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.10/$6.25
  • Bulls v Lions (+17.5) (in Pretoria) My estimate $1.25/$4.00 Actual $1.05/$8.00

 

Good Bet: 

TBA

Value: 

Hurricanes

At the margin:

TBA

Super Rugby Final Preview

ChiefsHurricanes (a) 7 points ahead of Crusaders with 1 match to go simply must beat Wellington Hurricanes to hold first. In Round 10 Chiefs beat Hurricanes 33 – 14 in Hamilton

On a count back for third Chiefs more wins than Brumbies.

Stormers –Free State (a) Rebels (h), Top 2, 9 point lead on Bulls or Sharks.

Brumbies – Blues (h). Possibly equal second but on countback still 3rd.

Crusaders –Force (h). 4th

Bulls –Transvaal Lions(h). need a win and a bonus point.

Sharks –Free State Cheetahs(h) need a win and a bonus point  Win over Bulls awesome.

Reds –Waratahs at Suncorp. Needs a win and a bonus point and a prayer. Not securing the bonus point against Highlanders telling. Beaten Brumbies in both games and it doesn’t matter. Reds currently have 10 wins. Bulls, Sharks and Wellington 9. On a count back Reds superior. If Bulls or Sharks don’t win with a bonus point, and Qld do, Reds advance. Problem is Reds has the toughest finish against old foes NSW.

Hurricanes – Waikato Chiefs (h) must defeat Chiefs, Needs a win and a bonus point and a prayer (miracle), most unlikely.

The market before round 17;

Canterbury Crusaders $3.50, Capetown Stormers $3.50, Waikato Chiefs $3.75, Pretoria Bulls $8 and Qld Reds $9, Brumbies $10 and Natal Sharks $26. Wellington is $51.

The Market after round 17;

Waikato Chiefs $3.25, Canterbury Crusaders $3.25, Capetown Stormers $3.50, Brumbies $7.50, Pretoria Bulls $15, and Natal Sharks $15. Qld Reds $26 and Wellington is $67.

Therefore in Week 1 of Finals Chiefs and Stormers week off, Brumbies play Sharks in Canberra, with Crusaders hosting Bulls in Christchurch, both losers eliminated. In Week 2 Chiefs play lowest ranked winner in Hamilton, and Stormers play other winner in Capetown, Crusaders or Bulls or Sharks??? In Round 6 Brumbies lost to Shark 26 – 29 in Canberra. Brumbies also lost to Chiefs in Round 4 22 – 29 at Mt Maunganui NZ. Crusaders lost to the Bulls in Round 7 30 – 32, and then beat the Stormers at home in Round 8 31 – 24.

The Rugby Championship

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 16

  • North (+6.5) v Carlton estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.20/$1.68
  • Melbourne (+17.5) v Fremantle estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $3.00/$1.40
  • Port (+17.5) v Essendon estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.00/$1.40
  • Richmond v Gold Coast (+39.5) estimate market $1.10/$10 Actual $1.12/$6.50
  • Geelong (+10.5) v Collingwood estimate market $2.11/$1.90 Actual $2.45/$1.55
  • Brisbane (+10.5) v St Kilda estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.60/$1.50
  • Giants (+70.5) v Adelaide estimate market $100/$1.01 $17/$1.01
  • Bulldogs (+50.5) v Hawks estimate market $6/$1.20 Actual $10/$1.05
  • West Coast v Sydney(+10.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.55/$2.45

 

Best Bet:

TBA

Value:

North, Geelong

At the Margin:

Geelong, Sydney

Grand Final Betting:

  • 28th June – Hawthorn $3.25, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50 & Swans $8
  • 5th July – Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $13, Geelong $15

The Race for the Flag

Sydney Swans – Won 11 from 14, losses to Crows R6 14.10.94 – 15.9.99, Richmond R7 8.14.62 – 13.13.91, St Kilda R9 12.11.83 – 16.15.111,

Sequence WWWWWLLWLWWbWWW 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 9, 3rd 10, 4th 6.

Their run home, – West Coast (a), St Kilda (h), Gold Coast (a), Carlton (a), Collingwood (h), Bulldogs (a), Hawks (h), Geelong (a).

 

West Coast Eagles – Won 11 from 14, losses to Essendon R7 7.10.52 – 16.17.113, Brisbane Lions R10 15.10.100 – 16.6.102, Collingwood R13 12.10.82 – 12.13.85

Sequence WWWWWWLWWLbWLWW 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 10, 3rd 9, 4th 11.

Their run home, – Sydney (h), Adelaide (a), Brisbane (h), Freo (a), Geelong (h), Port (a), Collingwood (h), Hawks (a).

 

Adelaide – Won 11 from 14, losses to Hawthorn R3 12.12 84 – 21.14.140, Collingwood R9 6.13.49 – 10.15.75, North R13 13.11.89 – 17.19.121,

Sequence WWLWWWWWLWbLWW 1st Quarter won 9, 2nd 9, 3rd 9, 4th 9.

Their run home, – GWS (a), West Coast (h), Geelong (a), Essendon (h), Fremantle (h), Brisbane (a), Melbourne (a), Gold Coast (h). (Possibly the easiest draw, Minor Premiers??)

 

Collingwood – Won 11 from 14, losses to Hawthorn R1 16.19.115 – 20.17.137, Carlton R3 9.8.62 – 18.14.122, Carlton R15 8.14.62 – 12.13.85,

Sequence LWLWWWWWWWWbWWL 1st Quarter won 11, 2nd 9, 3rd 8, 4th 5.

Their run home, – Geelong (a), Hawthorn (h), GWS (a), St Kilda (h), Sydney (a), North (h), West Coast (a), Essendon (a).

 

Hawthorn – Won 10 from 14, losses to Geelong R2 13.12.90 – 14.9.92, West Coast R4 5.16.46 – 5.21.51, Sydney R5 10.9.69 – 16.10.106, Richmond R9 10.15.75 – 21.11.137,

Sequence WLWLLWWWLWWWbWW 1st Quarter won 8, 2nd 13, 3rd 7, 4th 8.

Their run home, – Footscray (a), Collingwood (a), Essendon (a), Geelong (h), Port Adelaide (h), Gold Coast, (h), Sydney (a), West Coast (h).

 

Essendon Bombers – Won 10 from 14, losses to Collingwood R5 11.13.79 – 11.14.80, Melbourne R10 6.16.52 – 8.10.58, Sydney R11 11.16.82 – 13.8.86, St Kilda R15 8.14.62 – 21.7.133

Sequence WWWWLWWWWLLbWWL 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 9, 3rd 7, 4th 8.

Their run home, -.Port (a), Geelong (a),Hawthorn (h), Adelaide (a), North (h), Carlton (h), Richmond (a), Collingwood (h).

 

Geelong – Won 9 from 14, losses to Fremantle 15.11.101 – 16.9.105, North R3 16.18.114 – 20.11.131, Crows R7 10.12.72 – 19.18.122, Collingwood R8 11.18.84 – 14.12.96, Sydney R13 11.8.74 – 12.8.80,

Sequence LWLWWWLLWWWbLWW 1st Quarter won 6, 2nd 8, 3rd 7, 4th 10.

Their run home, – Collingwood (h), Essendon (h), Adelaide (h), Hawthorn (a), West Coast (a), St Kilda (h), Bulldogs (h), Sydney (h).

 

St Kilda – Won 7 from 14, losses to Port Adelaide R1 13.7.85 – 13.11.89,Fremantle R4 11.13.79 – 14.8.92, Hawthorn R6 13.10.88 – 18.15.123, West Coast R8 13.13 91 – 19.13.121, Richmond R10 16.17.113 – 18.13.121, Crows R12 16.15.111 – 17.13.115, North R14 15.13.103 – 21.10.136,

Sequence LWWLWLWLWLWLbLW 1st Quarter won 8, 2nd 8, 3rd 9, 4th 9.

Their run home, – Brisbane (a), Sydney (a), Footscray (h), Collingwood (a), Demons (h), Geelong (a), GWS (h), Carlton (a). Good chance of 7th or 8th, but not good value.

 

Carlton – Won 7 from 14, losses to Essendon R4 11.13.79 – 15.19.109, St Kilda R7 14.14.98 – 19.8.122, Adelaide R8 9.7.55 – 19.10.124, Port Adelaide R10 6.9.45 – 14.15.99, Geelong R11 11.19.85 – 14.13.97, West Coast R12 10.9.69 – 10.19.79, Hawthorn R14 10.10.70 – 18.12.120,

Sequence WWWLWWLLWLLLbLW 1st Quarter won 7, 2nd 5, 3rd 6, 4th 8.

Their run home, – North (a), Footscray (a), Richmond (h), Sydney (h), Lions (h), Essendon (a), Gold Coast (a), St Kilda (h).

 

Richmond – Won 7 from 14, losses to Carlton R1 12.9.81 – 18.17.125, Collingwood R2 8.16.64 – 12.13.85, Geelong R4 9.11.65 – 11.9.75, West Coast R5 14.13.97 – 16.11.107, Essendon R8 15.19.109 – 19.14.128, Fremantle R11 9.12.66 – 12.6.78, Crows R14 13.9.87 – 17.4.106,

Sequence LLWLLWWLWWLWbLW 1st Quarter won 10, 2nd 2, 3rd 10, 4th 6.

Their run home, -.Gold Coast (h), North (a), Carlton (a), Brisbane (h), Footscray (h), Fremantle (a), Essendon (h), Port (h).

 

North – Won 7 from 14, losses to Essendon R1 15.12.102 – 14.20.104, Sydney R4 10.17.77 – 17.11.113, West Coast R6 15.5.95 – 17.18.120, Western Bulldogs R7 12.11.83 – 15.11.101, Port R8 14.9.93 – 14.11.95, Hawthorn R10 9.5.59 – 27.12.174, West Coast R15 13.6.84 – 12.14.86,

Sequence LWWLWLLLWLbWWWL 1st Quarter won 8, 2nd 9, 3rd 7, 4th 5.

Their run home, – Carlton (h), Richmond (h), Melbourne (h), Bulldogs (h), Essendon (a), Collingwood (a), Fremantle (h), Giants (h). Not a bad run home, they need to perform week in week out.

Top Four Betting

As at July 11th Hawthorn $1.05, Adelaide $1.15, Sydney $1.25, West Coast $1.25, Collingwood $2, Essendon $3.50.

Final 8 Betting Hawthorn Not quoted, Adelaide Not quoted, Sydney Not quoted, West Coast Not quoted, Collingwood $1.05, Essendon $1.15, St Kilda $1.65, Geelong $1.65, Carlton $2.25, Richmond $2.50, North $3.50, Fremantle $5.

 Grand Final Betting

  • As at 4th of July Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $13, Geelong $15
  • As at July 11th, Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $5, West Coast $5.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $11, Geelong $15, Essendon $15, St Kilda $17 & Carlton $26.

 

________________________________________

NRL – Round 19 –

  • Broncos v Warriors (+5.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.25Actual $1.50/$2.65
  • Bulldogs v Eels (+18.5) – estimate market $1.33 /$4.00 Actual $1.12/$6.50
  • Storm v Cowboys (+5.5) – estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual $1.50/$2.65
  • Knights (+9.5) v Sea Eagles – estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $3.50/$1.32
  • Raiders v Titans (+4.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.55/$2.50
  • Saints v Sharks (+4.5) estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.57/$2.45
  • Tigers v Panthers (+11.5) estimate market $1.40/$3.50Actual $1.26/$4.00
  • Roosters (+5.5) v Rabbits estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.50/$1.30

Best Bet:

Tigers, Manly

Value:

Warriors, Sharkies

At The Margin:

Check back Later

The Money End of the Season – The Race for the Finals.

Storm

  • Won 12 from 16, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20, Raiders R18 12 – 40,
  • Their Sequence WWWWWWWWWLbWWLWLbL
  • Their run home, – Cowboys (h), Eels (a), Saints (a), Panthers (h), Titans (h), Broncos (a), Sharks (h), Tigers (a).

Bulldogs

  • Won 11 from 16, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
  • Their Sequence WWWLWLLLWLWWWbWWbW
  • Their run home, – Eels (h), Manly (a), Cowboys (h), Knights (a), Broncos (h), Tigers (h), Raiders (a), Roosters (h).

Sharks

  • Won 10 from 16 & a Draw, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17 Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels R13 20 – 29, Draw Easts R18,
  • Their Sequence LLWWWWWWLWLbLWbWWD
  • Their run home, – Saints (a), Raiders (h), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Knights (a), Souths (h), Storm (a), Cowboys (h). Must win 3 likely edge of top 4, will be riding high at round 21.

Broncos

  • Won 10 from 16, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WLWWWWWWLLbLWWLWLb
  • Their run home, – Warriors (h),Titans (a), Eels (h), Raiders (a), Bulldogs (a), Storm (h), Manly (a), Panthers (h).

Manly

  • Won 10 from 16, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26,
  • Their Sequence WWLLLWLWWWWLWbLWbW
  • Their run home, – Knights (a), Bulldogs (h), Warriors (h), Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Titans (a).

Cowboys

  • Won 9 from 16, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35,
  • Their Sequence LWWLWLWLWWWLLbWWLb
  • Their run home, – Storm (a), Tigers (h), Bulldogs (a), Manly (h), Warriors (h), Saints (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a).

Souths

  • Won 10 from 16, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs R13 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26,
  • Sequence LLWLWWLWWbWWLbWLWW
  • Their run home, – Roosters (a), Saints (h), Tigers (h), Titans (a), Manly (h), Sharks (a), Eels (h), Knights (a).

Tigers

  • Won 8 from 16, losses to Manly R2 18 –22 Saints R3 12 – 36 Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38, Bulldogs 20 – 32,
  • Sequence WLLLLLWWWWbWWWLLbL
  • Their run home, – Panthers (h), Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Eels (h), Saints (h), Bulldogs (a), Roosters (a), Storm (h).

Warriors

  • Won 8 from 16, losses to Manly R1 20 – 26, Bulldogs R3 18. –32, Roosters R5 8 – 26, Raiders R6 12 – 32, Storm R8 14 –32,Wests R11 22 – 24, Storm R13 12 –22, Sharks R15 19 – 20,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLLWLWWLbLWLbWW
  • Their run home, – Broncos (a), Knights (h), Manly (a), Sharks (h), Cowboys (a), Panthers (h), Saints (a), Raiders (h). Must win 6 from 9, 4 are at home. Aiming for 7th or 8th.

Raiders

  • Won 7 from 16, losses to Storm R1 19 – 24, Roosters R3 8 – 14, Cowboys R5 6 – 22, Broncos R7 6 – 30, Sharks R8 22 – 44, Manly R9 12 – 18, Souths R12 18 – 36, Tigers R13 0 – 40, Cowboys R16 18 – 40,
  • Their Sequence LWLWLWLLLWbLLWbLWW
  • Their run home, – Titans (h), Sharks (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Panthers (a), Easts (h), Bulldogs (a), Warriors (a).

 

Saints

  • Won 7 from 16, losses to Bulldogs R2 4 – 30, Broncos R5 20 – 28, Sharks R6 0 – 12, Cowboys R9 6 – 30, Panthers R10 12 – 13, Souths R11 18 – 19, Manly R13 8 –.20, Bulldogs R15 20 – 28, Raiders 18 – 22,
  • Their Sequence WLWWLLWWLLLWLbLWLb
  • Their run home, – Sharks (h), Souths (a), Storm (h), Roosters (a), Tigers (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h), Eels (a).

Top Four Market –

Melbourne $1.03, Bulldogs $1.22, Manly $1.50, Broncos $1.75, Souths $1.75, Warriors, $7.00, Cowboys $7.00, Wests Tigers $11.00.

Top Eight Market

Melbourne Not Quoted, Canterbury Not Quoted, Manly $1.03, Broncos $1.03, Souths $1.03, Cronulla $1.07, Warriors, $1.45, Cowboys $1.50, Wests Tigers, $1.55, Saints $7.00, Raiders $8.00, Roosters $11.00, Titans $13.00, Knights $13.00.

 Wooden Spoon (most regular season losses);

Parramatta $1.25, Penrith $3.75.

Grand Final Market:

  • 28th June- Melbourne $3.50, Manly & Brisbane $6, Canterbury $7, Wests Tigers $7.50. I really thought Canterbury would be substantially shorter after such a comprehensive display. Maybe $5.50. Maybe they simply can’t afford to push Melbourne out to a more realistic $5. Canterbury are about 3 wins away from a finals berth.
  • 5th July – Melbourne $3.50, Manly $5.50, Canterbury $6, Brisbane $8, Souths $9, Wests Tigers $10, Cronulla $15.
  • 12th July – Melbourne $3.75, Manly $4.50, Canterbury $5.50, Brisbane $8, Souths $8, Warriors $15, Wests Tigers $15, Cronulla $17,

 ________________________________________

Tennis

________________________________________

Soccer

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12

This Weekend –

  • 2 Units Capetown Stormers to win Super Rugby @ $3.75. Matures 4/8/12
  • 1 unit Canterbury Bulldogs to win 2012 NRL premiership @ $5.50. Matures 30/9/12
  • 1 unit on Adelaide Crows to win the AFL Minor Premiership @ $4.50. Matures 2/9/12
  • Nothing on this weekend matches. Heaps to consider throughout.

 

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Cowboy
    July 11, 2012 at 8:59 pm

    Monster post Rookie. Let the finals countdown begin. Still not sure if Storm are over the SOO blues. See you have taken the Cowboys over the Storm. The top 8 contest is gonna be a tight affair over the next 3-4 weeks. Keep up the great work.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    July 13, 2012 at 1:38 am

    All of this is still rolling in my head.
    By the time I placed my bets I secured $5.00 only on Bulldogs to win NRL premiership. I also accidentally had 1 unit on Broncos to win premiership, and decided to keep it.

    This weekend there are so many dilemmas.

    In Super Rugby Reds have blown to $34. Waratahs are hopeless, and Cheetahs could easily deny Natal the bonus point. If Bulls play OK they should account for Lions easily.

    In AFL Geelong are not finished should they lose but they want this game so bad. North have great chance against Blues, but Carlton are coming off a massive win against Collingwood. Then there is West Coast v Swans at Subiaco, where only guarantee is low scoring game, both play that shitty footie down the edges and generally cant surpass 60 total points. Sydney come out in the 1st qtr firing, then lapse and wait for Adam Goodes to find some magic to re invigorate their cause.

    In NRL, I still think the Sharks might just get the cliff hanger at Wollongong. They have a bad record at Wollongong. That counted for nothing against Broncos in Brisbane. They are without Gallen and Jem Smith. They are consistent without there few stars. The biggest match of the wekend is Broncos v Warriors in Brisbane. Who wants to stand up? Storm have shown their vunerability. This is rivals round. History throws in a slightly different dimension. Cowboys might just tweak Storm, Bulldogs might be equal first on Sunday night.

    There is just too much tension to gamble heavily. It is hard to back Doggies at $1.11 after recent disasters.

    Good luck, and as always Good Hunting and Happy Punting

  3. big punter
    July 13, 2012 at 6:34 pm

    maybe my only bet have backed manly

  4. July 13, 2012 at 7:01 pm

    Rookie … just getting down to watch the Broncos v Warriors – you are right in your call about the importance of the game – when I read all your post I began to realise how thorough you had been.

    Thanks a bunch.

  5. Adriana
    July 14, 2012 at 3:54 am

    it was really excellent post! i always like to read this blog. thanks.http://www.ojogosdomario.com

  6. Rookie Bookie
    July 14, 2012 at 9:14 am

    The loss of the Chiefs to Hurricanes should mean Stormers finish first and therefore have first right to earn the final in 3 weeks. Very happy with the wager.

    Warriors loss to Broncos means that will qualify outside top 4. They must win 4 consecutive games in finals. A tough ask, in the circumstance, and given their lack of consistency particularly away from home. For Broncos such a tough match should accelerate their claim to 2nd or 3rd position. That is why I have set out the match ups, for you to consider.

    In Melbourne the North win over Carlton is also about making the 8. That comp is so open with a massive claim for top 4, and equally to make the 8. It is not likely to resolve quickly, a promoters dream.

    Good Hunting and Happy Punting.

  7. Rookie Bookie
    July 14, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    Jadrunka,
    Thanks for your comment. It is good to be appreciated, to have people acknowledge your efforts. As Eyeball often says Welcome.

    I would expect computer literate ladies who don’t follow footie codes to have some confidence entering the male domain of footie tipping comps, through the weekly analysis provided. Spotting a potential upset will never be easy. That is where I tried last August to explain probabilities into gambling odds.

    Checked out your site, don’t actually follow, but note you are at UTS.

  8. July 15, 2012 at 11:54 pm

    A tough weekend in the NRL – the ladder is compresing and the next few weeks offer up games with plenty to play for. Looking forward to your take Rookie.

  9. Rookie Bookie
    July 16, 2012 at 1:02 pm

    I am writing already where Souths are yet to play Easts tonight. Weekend was illuminating.

    I simply can’t believe Brumbies loss. The weakest team in the NZ conference beat the erstwhile best team in the Australia conference. Auckland Blues have been written off since round 5, and now in Round 18 At your peril. The $34 before Saturday on Qld Reds says it all.

    Last weekend I commented how Manly took their foot of the gas against Parramatta and it was a bad sign. They lost to Knights. Earlier I said their was not much improvement in first Melbourne then Sharkies. Weekend pretty well sums it up. Cowboys inflict Storm 3rd consecutive loss, and Cronulla missing a few forwards could not match it with Saints. Raiders snuffed out by Titans, but Titans did not finish the game well. Warriors were great against Broncos but….

    Wests Tigers got the points against Panthers but were not that impressive. Doggies had a training run against Eels.

    There is so much to consider I will possibly post twice this week, review on Tuesday and preview on Friday about noon.

  10. Big Punter
    July 16, 2012 at 3:21 pm

    Lost a meat pie on Manly.

    Trade of the day: buy Origin shares $12, Grant Sep 2012 $10.21 call with $1.90 premium. Collect div payment $.25c. Collect franking credit collect $.10c. Break even if shares fall to $9.75 by expiry, Money for jam.

    Big Punter

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