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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 6th – 9th July, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
6th July – 9th July, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3
  • 20th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 463.7
  • 27th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7
  • 4th July 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 29th – 2nd July.

Check back later …

Weekend 6th – 9th July. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 17

  • Chiefs v Crusaders (in Hamilton) My estimate $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.95/$1.80
  • Reds v Highlanders (+8.5) (in Brisbane) My estimate $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.28/$3.50
  • Sharks v Bulls (in Durban) My estimate $2.12/$1.90 Actual $1.75/$2.00
  • Blues v Force (+15.5) (in Auckland) My estimate $1.85/$2.17 Actual$1.09/$6.50
  • Waratahs v Brumbies (in Sydney) My estimate $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.80/$2.00
  • Cheetahs (+7.5) v Stormers (in Bloemfontein) My estimate $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.30/$1.30
  • Lions v Rebels (+7.5) (in Joh’burg) My estimate $1.80/$2.25.00 Actual $1.30/$3.30

Good Bet: 

Stormers or Reds

Value: 

Brumbies

At the margin:

Force, Rebels Odds on Auckland in Auckland just stupid

Super Rugby Final Preview

Chiefs –Crusaders (h) Hurricanes (a) 10 points ahead two matches to go and a bonus point guarantees them a week off in week 1 of semi finals.

Stormers –Free State (a) Rebels (h), Top 2, 4 point lead on Bulls, 9 on Sharks, Brumbies would only challenge if Stormers drop a match, Free State Cheetahs will be tough at Bloemfontein. Should Cheetahs win it will be difficult for Stormers. Rather unlikely.

Brumbies –Waratahs (a) Blues (h) This match against Tahs in Sydney critical, previously 27 – 6. Waratahs only playing for pride. Bruising encounter. Conference Winner. 3rd spot.

Bulls – Natal (a) Transvaal (h). This is it, Bulls merely want a draw, Sharks must win scoring 4 or more tries.

Crusaders – Chiefs (a) Force (h). Loss to Wellington has damaged their claim but not eliminated them. If they lose to Chiefs, sweating on the result of Hurricanes v Chiefs in week 18.

Hurricanes – bye Chiefs (h) must defeat Chiefs, and hope Chiefs roll Crusaders. Likely 54 points. Equal 7th

Reds – Highlanders (h), Waratahs at Suncorp. Likely 58 points. 6th spot.

Sharks –Pretoria (h) Free State (h) not looking too hopeful, but they are in with a chance. Likely 54 points. Equal 7th

The conference system levels the three participating nations. That is a story for another day. It advantages the Reds in this case.

The market is framed Canterbury Crusaders $3.50, Capetown Stormers $3.50, Waikato Chiefs $3.75, Pretoria Bulls $8 and Qld Reds $9, Brumbies $10 and Natal Sharks $26. Wellington is $51.

The Rugby Championship

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 15

  • Collingwood v Carlton (+28.5) estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.22/$4.25
  • North (+15.5) v West Coast estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.75/$1.45
  • Melbourne (+33.5) v Richmond estimate market $5/$1.25 Actual $4.90/$1.18
  • Sydney v Brisbane (+34.5) estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.16/$5.25
  • St Kilda (+17.5) v Essendon estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.00/$1.40
  • Port Adelaide (+26.5) v Adelaide estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $4.00/$1.25
  • Hawthorn v Giants (+70-99) estimate market $1.01/$100 Actual not available
  • Gold Coast (+59.5) v Geelong estimate market $100/$1.01 Actual $17/$1.01
  • Fremantle v Bulldogs (+32.5) estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.16/$5.25

Best Bet:

Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney

Value:

Check back Later.

At the Margin:

Check back Later.

Grand Final Betting:

  • 28th June – Hawthorn $3.25, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50 & Swans $8
  • 5th July – Hawthorn $3.00, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50, Swans $8, Adelaide $13, Geelong $15

________________________________________

NRL – Round 18 – Split Round

  • Tigers (+3.5) v Bulldogs – estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $1.60/$2.40
  • Storm v Raiders (+12.5) – estimate market $1.33 /$4.00 Actual $1.20/$4.75
  • Titans (+4.5) v Warriors – estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.25/$1.67
  • Souths v Knights (+10.5) – estimate market $1.25/$5.00 Actual $1.28/$3.75
  • Manly v Parramatta (+12.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00Actual $1.22/$4.50
  • Sharks v Roosters (+5.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00Actual $1.50/$2.65

Best Bet:

Sharks, Storm

Value:

Check back Later

At The Margin:

Check back Later

Special note: Which Wests Tigers will show up this weekend? Wests appear to be blowing their chances, in last couple of weeks. Have blown substantially in Premiership betting. I expect Souths to score 4 tries against Newcastle’s 3. Souths are still too unpredictable. Parra often worry Manly. Warriors should win but not good things. Winner of Titans v Warriors should accelerate chances into the 8.

Grand Final Market:

  • Melbourne $3.50, Manly & Brisbane $6, Canterbury $7, Wests Tigers $7.50. I really thought Canterbury would be substantially shorter after such a comprehensive display. Maybe $5.50. Maybe they simply can’t afford to push Melbourne out to a more realistic $5. Canterbury are about 3 wins away from a finals berth.
  • 5th July -Melbourne $3.50, Manly $5.50, Canterbury $6, Brisbane $8, Souths $9, Wests Tigers $10, Cronulla $15.

 ________________________________________

Tennis

Mens Wimbledon Prices – Djokovic $1.65, Federer $4.50, Murray $5, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga $13.

________________________________________

Soccer

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    July 5, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    This Weekend
    1 unit on Super Rugby Capetown Stormers all up Qld Reds $1.30 x $1.28 =$1.664
    ½ unit on Super Rugby Act Brumbies @ $2
    1 unit on NRL Sharks all up Storm $1.50 x $1.20 = $1.80
    ½ unit on NRL Sharks, Storm, Bulldogs $1.50 x $1.20 x $1.60 = $2.80

    I stress Wests V Canterbury is not a good match to gamble on, there are 2 scenarios, Canterbury hit the front through ball control, and then Wests forwards muscle up or are shown to be short. If Wests play to ability, it will be a cliff hanger, if they choose to blame someone else, they will bet a lesson.

    Hereafter is a work in progress on analysis composition of the eight. It highlights how vital the Wests V Dogs & Titans v Warriors matches this weekend are. The first is a race for 2nd to 4th spot, the second just to be in the finals.

    The Money End of the Season.
    Storm – Won 12 from 15, losses to Cronulla R10 10 –12, Wests R14 6 – 10, Bulldogs R16 4 – 20,
    Their run home, – Raiders (h) Cowboys (h), Eels (a), Saints (a), Panthers (h), Titans (h), Broncos (a), Sharks (h), Tigers (a). Qualified, extremely likely minor premiers.

    Bulldogs – Won 10 from 15, losses to Knights R4 6 – 20, Souths R6 10 – 20, Storm R7 6 –12, Manly R8 10 – 12, Titans R10 14 – 25,
    Their run home, – Wests, (a) Eels (h), Manly (a), Cowboys (h), Knights (a), Broncos (h), Tigers (h), Raiders (a), Roosters (h). Must win 3, therefore cruising for likely top 4

    Sharks – Won 10 from 15, losses to Wests R1 16 – 17 Knights R2 6 – 18, Souths R9 28 – 34, Bulldogs R11, 6 – 26, Eels 20 – 29,
    Their run home, – Roosters (h) Saints (a), Raiders (h), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Knights (a), Souths (h), Storm (a), Cowboys (h). Must win 3 likely edge of top 4.

    Broncos – Won 10 from 16, losses to Cowboys R2 26 – 28 Warriors R9 20 – 30, Manly R10 22 – 24, Storm R12 10 – 34, Cowboys R15 0 – 12, Sharks R17 12 – 26,
    Their run home, – bye Warriors (h),Titans (a), Eels (h), Raiders (a), Bulldogs (a), Storm (h), Manly (a), Panthers (h). Must win 3, probably 5th.

    Manly – Won 9 from 15, losses to Cronulla R3 14 – 17 Saints R4 6 – 17, Eels R5 20 – 29, Titans R7 14 – 26, Penrith R12 4 – 22, Storm R15 22 – 26,
    Their run home, – Eels (h) Knights (a), Bulldogs (h), Warriors (h), Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Knights (h), Broncos (h), Titans (a). Must win 4, likely 5th or 6th.

    Cowboys – Won 9 from 16, losses to Titans Round 1 0 – 18, Sharks R4 14 – 20, Storm R6 18 –42, Souths R8 16 – 20, Wests R12 18 – 26, Titans R13 12 – 28, Warriors R17 18 – 35,
    Their run home, – bye Storm (a), Tigers (h), Bulldogs (a), Manly (h), Warriors (h), Saints (a), Knights (h), Sharks (a). Must win 4 quite vulnerable, 7th or 8th.

    Souths – Won 9 from 15, losses to Roosters R1 20 – 24, Storm R2 10 – 24, Broncos R4 12 – 20, Warriors R7 22 – 44, Bulldogs 18 – 23, Broncos R16 12 – 26,
    Their run home, – Knights (h) Roosters (a), Saints (h), Tigers (h), Titans (a), Manly (h), Sharks (a), Eels (h), Knights (a). Must win 4 from 9.Likely 4th to 7th. Rounds 21 to 24 critical and the testing material.

    Tigers – Won 8 from 15, losses to Manly R2 18 –22 Saints R3 12 – 36 Raiders R4 16 – 30, Souths R5 16 – 17, Broncos R6 14 – 18, Roosters R15 28 – 42, Knights R16 20 – 38,
    Their run home, – Bulldogs (h) Panthers (h), Cowboys (a), Souths (a), Eels (h), Saints (h), Bulldogs (a), Roosters (a), Storm (h). Far too unpredictable, just look at their losses. 4th????

    Warriors – Won 7 from 15, losses to Manly R1 20 – 26, Bulldogs R3 18. –32, Roosters R5 8 – 26, Raiders R6 12 – 32, Storm R8 14 –32,Wests R11 22 – 24, Storm R13 12 –22, Sharks R15 19 – 20,
    Their run home, – Titans (a) Broncos (a), Knights (h), Manly (a), Sharks (h), Cowboys (a), Panthers (h), Saints (a), Raiders (h). Must win 6 from 9, 4 are at home. Aiming for 7th or 8th.

    Titans – Won 6 from 15, losses to Raiders R2 12 –24, Storm R3 6 –30, Warriors R4 6 –26, Bulldogs R5 20 – 30, Roosters R6 4 – 18, Broncos R8 6 – 26, Wests R9 14 – 15, Sharks R14 12 – 22, Saints R16 6 – 8,
    Their run home, – Warriors (h) Raiders (a), Broncos (h), Roosters (a), Souths (h), Storm (a), Eels (h), Panthers (a), Manly (h). Must win 7 from 9. 5 matches against teams in front of them. Must win 3 of those, realistic hope for 8th.

  2. Cowboy
    July 6, 2012 at 11:08 am

    A monster effort of logistics and stats … appreciate the effort and thank you for such a concise season summary. Great work

  3. The Green Frog
    July 6, 2012 at 11:11 am

    Ditto to Cowboys comment … I read you weekly and use your predictions in margin and pick the winners wagers. Appreciate your efforts but this NRL run home summary beats everything else. Keep up the great work.

  4. big punter
    July 7, 2012 at 8:48 am

    reds get home will play up winnings on sharks

  5. Rookie Bookie
    July 7, 2012 at 3:48 pm

    Qld Reds failure to get the winning bonus point by scoring 4 tries or more, has probably cost them a finals berth. Yesterday I spent most of the day dwelling on Wests v Bulldogs. Today it is Brumbies v Waratahs. Qld Reds now need luck, and Waratahs beating Brumbies just could be it. As things stand, 1st is Chiefs, 2nd is Stormers, 3rd is Brumbies, 4th is Crusaders, 5th is Bulls, 6th is Sharks, and equal 7th is Wellington and Reds. Sharks thumped the Bulls at home, Crusaders got the decision over Chiefs away.

    As for NRL Sharkies (the Noah Arks) they should account for Easts Chookies. Chookies are reduced to nuisance value. The Noah’s win over second string Broncos last weekend without Gallen and Carney was impressive. The toughest part of the current comp is fatigued players after SOO. Gallen looked hurt by the finish of the match on Wednesday night, just how tough is he?

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