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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 29th June – 2nd July, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
29th June – 2nd July, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3
  • 20th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 463.7
  • 27th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 363.7

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 22nd – 25thJune.

Betting

A serious wash out. Lost on Broncos/Souths, Lost on Saints/Titans and in the parlay Crows were not serious about their match against Nth Melbourne. AFL is simply killing me. Wests Tigers too are real jokes. Don’t take anything away from Knights and Tahu getting a treble. Back to basics.

Review

Some feel we saw 2 grand final previews on the weekend, Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm and Collingwood Magpies v West Coast Eagles. That is nonsense. Both comps this year are using the same final series match ups and any team in the Prelimiary Finals simply need to play 2 impeccable 80 minute matches. Warriors taking out Melbourne last year is example enough. Hawthorne running a nominal 3rd played better against Geelong in the Preliminary final than Collingwood in the GF. So what. Selecting those 4 is hard enough.

Despite the churning caused by byes and SOO selection you do expect the better teams to show much more consistency. The only team that is really unable to show much right now is Penrith, and now I have said that, they will probably show Souths to be proper bunnies this weekend.

The Rugby Championship

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.

Super Rugby Final

Chiefs –Highlanders (a) Crusaders (h) Hurricanes (a) too hard, two wins and a bonus point 67 points, win over Wellington absolutely mandatory. Most likely top 2.

Stormers –Transvaal (h) Free State (a) Rebels (h), predicted 68 comp points. Top 2

Brumbies –Force (a) Waratahs (a) Blues (h) at least 12 points, match against Tahs in Sydney critical, previously 27 – 6. 62 or 58 points. Conference Winner. 3rd spot.

Crusaders –Hurricanes (h) Chiefs (a) Force (h). Absolutely awesome against Highlanders, if they collect maximum points 15 they go to 66 points, just too hard to call. Would like to see them eliminated but just too unlikely.

Bulls –Free State (h) Natal (a) Transvaal (h). If they beat Sharks in Durban 61 to 63 points. Failure to do so race for bonus points.

Hurricanes –Crusaders bye (a) Chiefs (h) must defeat Crusaders, and season will be on the line. 50 to 51 points.

Sharks – Transvaal (a) bye Pretoria (h) Free State (h) everything rides on Bulls in Round 17, Maximum 59 points possible, a draw sees them eliminated

Highlanders – Chiefs (h) Reds (a) bye, 53 points at max. too big an ask.

Reds –.Rebels (a) Highlanders (h), Waratahs at Suncorp. Possible 59 points.

The market is framed Canterbury Crusaders $3.25, Waikato Chiefs $3.75, Capetown Stormers $4, Pretoria Bulls and Qld Reds $10, Brumbies $11 and Natal Sharks $21. Wellington is $101. Crusaders and Chiefs shorten, Bulls and Reds blow out in the betting. Said enough, Bulls need Sharks win in Natal, and Reds v Waratahs at Suncorp (Round 18) will be monstrous. Waratahs have got nothing to play for.

Crusaders likely 4th means first match in Christchurch, then two away matches, likely Capetown, possibly Hamilton. With final at the other (if they are good enough).

Tennis

Tomic seeded at 20 at Wimbledon  and Stosur at 5. Tomic beaten in 4 sets, in Round 1, Stosur defeated in Round 2. Australia does not have any players in singles matches in Round 3. We can only pray for our youth. Hewitt is upset getting a wild card into the Olympic singles, not getting a doubles berth “does playing all that Davis Cup, amount to nil?”

During the French Open my son commented how Stosur has a great record in Slam matches that go to 3rd set deciders. Match point this morning was lame.

Wimbledon Prices – Djokovic $2.50, Nadal $3.20, Federer $5.00, Murray $12. In the ladies Kim Clijsters is at $12 (in from $21) Sharapova $3 and Serena Williams $4 are favoured.

At the Olympics it is Djokovic $2.65, Federer $4.00, Nadal $4.75, Murray $6.50, Tomic $31.00 with Sam Stosur in the ladies also $21. Interestingly Kim Clijsters is at $8.

Olympics

July 17th can’t come fast enough

Weekend 29th – 2nd July. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 16

  • Highlanders (+3.5) v Chiefs (in Dunedin) My estimate $2.42/$1.75 Actual $2.30/$1.60
  • Rebels (+9.5) v Reds (in Melbourne) My estimate $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.85/$1.25
  • Crusaders v Wellington (+9.5) (in Christchurch) My estimate $1.70/$2.42 Actual$1.25/$3.85 (It will be rugged defence, low score no more than total 35 points)
  • Force (+4.5) v Brumbies (in Perth) My estimate $4.00/$1.33 Actual $2.50/$1.50
  • Stormers v Lions (+15.5) (in Capetown) My estimate $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.08/$7.00
  • Bulls v Cheetahs (+11.5) (in Pretoria) My estimate $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.15/$5.25

Best Bet: 

Waikato Chiefs, ACT Brumbies

Value: 

Wellington Hurricanes,

At the margin:

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 14

  • Carlton (+23.5) v Hawthorn estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $3.55/$1.30
  • Collingwood v Fremantle (+39.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.10/$7.00
  • Adelaide v Richmond (+17.5) estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • West Coast v Gold Coast (+70.5) estimate market $1.10/$11 Actual $1.01/$17.00
  • Essendon v Bulldogs (+30.5) estimate market $1.75/$2.42 Actual $1.20/$4.60
  • Swans v G W Sydney (+67.5) estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $1.01/$17.00
  • Geelong v Port Adelaide (+44.5) estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.07/$8.50
  • Brisbane v Demons (+26.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • St Kilda v North (+20.5) estimate market $1.75/$2.33 Actual $1.25/$3.25

 

Best Bet:

Melbourne Dees???? (look at the starts, lowest Richmond, every favourite has shortened since early markets posted on Monday) Of the favourites far too short. Why would you back West Coast or Swans @ $1.01

Value:

Melbourne Dees

At the Margin:

Fremantle, Collingwood regain their prowess, Fremantle weak in the ruck. Fremantle happy to be the Giant killers

Grand Final Betting:

Hawthorn $3.25, Collingwood, $4, West Coast $6.50 & Swans $8

________________________________________

NRL – Round 17 – Split Round

  • Broncos v Sharks (+5.5) – estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.55/$2.50
  • Eels (+2.5) v Knights – estimate market $2.11 /$1.90 Actual $2.10/$1.75
  • Souths v Penrith (+8.5) – estimate market $1.33/$4.00 Actual $1.28/$3.75
  • Warriors v Cowboys (+14.5) – estimate market $1.25/$5.00 Actual $1.18/$5.00
  • Canberra (+4.5) v St George estimate market $2.43/$1.70Actual $2.45/$1.57

 

Best Bet:

Really tough, Cowboys so weakened by SOO, Canberra have great record against Saints

Value:

N/A

At The Margin:

N/A

State of Origin:

My assessment Qld v NSW (+4.5) $1.60/$2.67 actual $1.65/$2.30. Both coaches playing tricks. Billy Slater don’t rush, Glenn Stewart named in the squad. Billy Slater named in the squad. Ryan Hoffman enjoys the bye anyway so there is no point in not bracketing him in the squad. Stuart wants Queensland to have to guess. Harrison will be fine. Several other uncertainties but Qld have been backed in. Since Monday NSW have been backed. Until you see the full proposition it is hard to assess.

Grand Final Betting:

Melbourne $3.50, Manly & Brisbane $6, Canterbury $7, Wests Tigers $7.50. I really thought Canterbury would be substantially shorter after such a comprehensive display. Maybe $5.50. Maybe they simply can’t afford to push Melbourne out to a more realistic $5. Canterbury are about 3 wins away from a finals berth.

 ________________________________________

Tennis

________________________________________

Soccer

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12

 

This Weekend

 

In the sin bin after last weekend, best bet is in Rugby. Chiefs need this win or their campaign falls to pieces same for Brumbies. Crusaders are expected to run up a big score against Wellington, I don’t think so. Stormers and Bulls both need the win. In NRL both Broncos and Sharks are without too many stars. AFL simply no value.

 

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    June 29, 2012 at 11:53 am

    The news that Dane Neilsen has been called up to replace Billy Slater is very good for QLD. Inglis to fullback, Neilsen to centre. Yesterday I said uncertainty regarding selection was causing confusion. It is not yet reflected in betting. I simply intend to watch. My head says Qld. Glenn Stewart will not play. For mine Ryan Hoffman deserves a chance.

    The defeat of Rafael Nadal at the hands of unknown Czech Lukas Rosol is stunning. Rosol is now quoted at $36. Djokovic has firmed to evens. Should we expect Rosol to match up against Federer in the semis? You need to cast back to Richard Krajicek in 1996 or the emergence of Boris Becker in 1986 to find some type of equivalence. Rosol now plays 27th seed Philipp Kohlscreiber in the 3rd round with the winner to play Brian Baker of the US or Frenchman Benoit Paire in the round of 16. Quarter final is likely Tsonga. then Murray.

    In Euro Cup at 4.30 am AEST Italy play Spain. Spain are quoted at $1.53 and Italy at $2.40. For me it would be Spain @ $1.80 and Italy $2.25. Italy played good attractive match against Germany, but their defence will be critical against Spain, on the counter attack.

  2. big punter
    June 29, 2012 at 7:45 pm

    again thanks backed the chiefs thats it will take the wife out to dinner

  3. Ironmike
    June 30, 2012 at 2:08 pm

    If you can’t find much value in the footy this weekend maybe look at the Cycling. Bradley Wiggans is the favorite in the Tour despite only finishing 4th at best before. While Cadel Evans who is obviously reigning champ and has twice come second is at $3.50. Cadel is getting old but I suspect Wiggans is so short because of all the British money. The British love to lay the Aussies (i.e. Black Caviar).

  4. Gerry Hatrick
    July 2, 2012 at 1:31 pm

    Iron Mike, would love to hear your prowess in boxing.

    Cycling is so tough. Wiggins and Evans are deservedly tight in the betting. They individually are regarded the best time trial sprinters in a teams event. Naturally Australia has their heart on Cadel. A major element of betting is the 4 favoured teams. I am hoping that Cadel Evans comes through without undue fatigue in Tour de france for the Olympics.

    Beyond all of this the Lance Armstrong allegations are massive, so Cadel might win how many crowns in coming weeks?

    On British laying Aussies, I would be happy to arbitrage Ladbrokes against local betting agencies. It makes you wonder. As an aussie it is illegal betting overseas because of gambling taxes.

    Otherwise some good results in Rugby, Hurricanes, Chiefs & Brumbies, forgot to underline my selections, but got the easy 5, and will claim the upset by Wellington to boot.

  5. July 2, 2012 at 4:27 pm

    Boy your a cheap punter – all done by Friday afternoon – just enought for a dinner eh … surely you can spring for a sling … have you ever lost following Rookies picks …

  6. July 2, 2012 at 4:31 pm

    That is asking a lot Ironmike … everyone has their strengths and Rookie is spread pretty thin covering NRL, AFL, ARU, Soccer, Tennis, Olympics, SOO, and a few others from tiem to time … perhaps you might want to cover some of the other exotic sports options … I’m sure Rookie Bookie is open to any suggestions …

    The Tour De France is a great event and updates would be welcome.

    Thanks for the contributiom.

    Snoopy

  7. Rookie Bookie
    July 2, 2012 at 6:19 pm

    Big Punter won on a Friday NRL game, and said he was going to follow up on the Crows v North Melbourne in the AFL. Oops.

    North Roos won again on the weekend beating Saints? All the rage is West Coast for the flag. Winning by 20 goals over the clear wooden spooners will never be as critical as beating hotshots by a point or 4.

    At the mid stages of Super Rugby I said it was grinding. Literally who cares. Right now that is where AFL and NRL are at. When will Wests Tigers realise it is a long season, and beating some teams by 30, then failing to show up in easier matches, sees them always on the fringe, and never enjoying an easy passage in the finals. That logic hold for several teams. In NRL there are 3 certainties for final eight, Melbourne Canterbury and Cronulla. After that there are 7 – 9 teams contesting the other 5 spots. A critical injury will be telling>

  8. forex rebates
    July 29, 2012 at 8:29 am

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