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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 22nd – 25th June, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
22nd – 25th June, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3
  • 20th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 463.7

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 15th – 18th June.

Betting

Collect on Bulldogs and Storm, lost on Port Adelaide, Eels and 40/20 success in Rabbits Eels match. Collect 2.95 per 4 outlay. (100 index points is 3 units outlaid or won) Index negative 33. 67

Review

Carney’s 40/20 produces the last try for Sharks in a nail biter, Manly lose to Melbourne and NSW lose Glenn Stewart. Wests lose to Easts as the season fast approaches the 2/3rds mark.

These international Rugby matches are so silly. The Yarpies lead England 2 nil, The shaky Isles lead Ireland 2 nil, and Oz leads Six Nations Champs 2 nil and we are going to do it one more time. NZ beat Ireland in the second match with a drop goal in the dying seconds, Australia kicked a penalty on full time to secure their second win, and while those from rugby heaven love that exhilaration, we from punting heaven tend to enjoy clear cut results, and open games, not dour penalty shoot outs.

Please note I have not called them Tests. As a trial in one sense of the word they are tests, but in the traditional sense one team on post season celebration trip, playing another team working on match play for “The Rugby Chamoinship” are more akin to soccer friendlies.

In AFL there is so much of nothing. Giants threaten Richmond, Richmond get the critical win, Suns threaten North, North get the critical win, and at the end of the day, there are 6 realistic hopes in the comp, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorne and Adelaide, throw in West Coast and Essendon with the Swans in the second group of 4, and 8th spot doesn’t really matter. The only other team capable of causing upset would be Fremantle maybe Richmond. I will predict my 8 around about 2 weeks time.

In the NRL Melbourne continue to roll all in front of them. This week the great hope is Canterbury Bulldogs. The Sharks have lowered their colours, and I don’t put anything on Wests win. If the Bulldogs should win this weekend and of course they are expected to go well, they will come screaming in on Grand Final betting. Currently $8, (equal 5th in the betting) while Melbourne are quoted at $3.75. Each week Melbourne appear to have another great player. I expect Hoffman to be considered for Origin 3. See Peter Steling’s NRL write up.

The Rugby Championship

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20.

Super Rugby Final

Chiefs –Highlanders (a) Crusaders (h) Hurricanes (a) too hard, two wins and a bonus point 67 points, win over Wellington absolutely mandatory. Most likely top 2.

Stormers –Transvaal (h) Free State (a) Rebels (h), predicted 68 comp points. Top 2

Brumbies –Force (a) Waratahs (a) Blues (h) at least 12 points, match against Tahs in Sydney critical, previously 27 – 6. 62 or 58 points. Conference Winner. 3rd spot.

Crusaders –Hurricanes (h) Chiefs (a) Force (h). Absolutely awesome against Highlanders, if they collect maximum points 15 they go to 66 points, just too hard to call. Would like to see them eliminated but just too unlikely.

Bulls –Free State (h) Natal (a) Transvaal (h). If they beat Sharks in Durban 61 to 63 points. Failure to do so race for bonus points.

Hurricanes –Crusaders bye (a) Chiefs (h) must defeat Crusaders, and season will be on the line. 50 to 51 points.

Sharks – Transvaal (a) bye Pretoria (h) Free State (h) everything rides on Bulls in Round 17, Maximum 59 points possible, a draw sees them eliminated

Highlanders – Chiefs (h) Reds (a) bye, 53 points at max. too big an ask.

Reds –.Rebels (a) Highlanders (h), Waratahs at Suncorp. Possible 59 points.

I predict Chiefs or Stormers 1st or 2nd (only matters in staging final), Brumbies 3rd, Crusaders 4th, with 5th and 6th coming from Bulls, Sharks and Reds. 5th will play Crusaders at Christchurch, and 6th will play Brumbies in Canberra.

The market is framed Canterbury Crusaders $3.75, Waikato Chiefs $4, Capetown Stormers $4, Pretoria Bulls and Qld Reds $9, Brumbies $11 and Natal Sharks $21. Wellington is $101. Betting suggests Qld Reds will finish 3rd or 6th. Either way it would be Brumbies v Reds in an elimination final. There are other possibilities, all based around bonus points.

UEFA Euro Cup

Greece, Portugal, Czech, Germany, Spain, Italy, England and France go to knock out stage. Still no interest. It is a good thing I have not been betting or I would be betting up to catch up.

Tennis

With Djokovic having lost his shot at a grand slam I have lost interest. The other night I got to see some historic footage of first Laver then Newcombe then Stan Smith serve volley to Championship 4 decades ago. My how the game has changed through racquet technology. Serve volley is now baseline. We can only wonder how long before we see another Grand Slam? It took Laver 24 years to emerge after Don Budge in 1938. It will happen again but maybe not in my lifetime. It is now 43 years plus.

Tomic seeded at 20 at Wimbeledon  and Stosur at 5

Wimbledon Prices – Djokovic $2.60, Nadal $3.50, Federer $5.00, Tomic $51.00. In the ladies Sam Stosur is quoted at $15, possibly round of 16 while Kim Clijster is at $21 Sharapova and Serena Williams are favoured.

At the Olympics it is Djokovic $2.65, Federer $4.00, Nadal $4.75, Murray $6.50, Tomic $31.00 with Sam Stosur in the ladies also $31. Interestingly Kim Clijster is at $8.

Olympics

July 17th can’t come fast enough

Weekend 22nd – 25th June. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 16

In Three Week Recess:

Best Bet:

Value: 

Rugby Internationals

See above for comment.

Best Bet: Nothing

Value: Reading the results in the Sunday papers. Getting unbiased commentary.

At the Margin: Any silly prices on the long shots. No odds yet offered.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 13

  • Swans v Cats (+8.5) estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.62/$2.30
  • Bulldogs v Lions (+15.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.38/$3.05
  • Collingwood v West Coast (+15.5) estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual $1.42/$2.90
  • Fremantle (2.5) v Bombers estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.95/$1.85
  • Demons v Giants (+22.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.30/$3.55
  • Roos (+18.5) v Crows estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $3.05/$1.38

Best Bet:

Crows

Value:

Geelong, Essendon, West Coast

At the Margin:

Nil.

________________________________________

NRL – Round 16 – Split Round

  • Saints v Titans (+4.5) – estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.52/$2.60
  • Broncos v Rabbitohs (+6.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.45/$2.80
  • Cowboys v Raiders (+10.5) – estimate market $1.33/$4.00 Actual $1.28/$3.75
  • Panthers v Eels (+2.5) – estimate market $1.95/$2.05 Actual $1.70/$2.20
  • Canterbury (+2.5) v Storm estimate market $2.43/$1.70Actual $2.20/$1.70
  • Easts (+4.5) v Manly – estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.50/$1.55
  • Knights (+5.5) v Tigers estimate market $4.00/$1.25Actual $2.65/$1.50

Best Bet:

Tigers or Cowboys (Tigers offer slightly more value), Considering Manly.

Value:

Titans, Rabbits, Eels

At The Margin:

No outstanding offering. More thinking of laying a couple

State of Origin:

My assessment Qld v NSW (+4.5) $1.60/$2.67 actual $1.60/$2.35

 ________________________________________

Tennis

________________________________________

Soccer

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12
  • This Weekend – only chasing value (total return)
  • 1 Unit on Souths (NRL) @ $2.80
  • 1 unit on Titans (NRL) @ $2.60
  • Parlay 1 unit Crows (AFL) into Cowboys (NRL) into Wests (NRL) into Manly (NRL)

 

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    June 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm

    Odds secured
    Souths @ $2.80, Titans @ $3.00 (Greg Bird doubtful??)
    Parlay Crows $1.38, Cowboys $1.28, Tigers $1.50, Manly $1.55 therefore $4.10688 per unit

  2. big punter
    June 23, 2012 at 6:57 pm

    thank you nice collect on cowboys have played up winnings on crows

  3. The Review
    July 29, 2012 at 1:13 am

    You could certainly see your expertise in the work you write. The sector hopes for more passionate writers such as you who are not afraid to mention how they believe. At all times go after your heart.

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