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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 15th – 18th June, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
15th – 18th June, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 8th – 11th June.

Betting

Lost on Djokovic, collect on NSW 2 @ $1.95/3 less stake is +ve 0.3

Review

I was tentative about Storm without Slater, Smith and Cronk. Thought Bellamy wanted something extra from his charges, but was shocked when it turned out so close. Wests Tigers are just too relaxed and unpredictable.

9/6/12 French open diary note;

Totally mesmerised by the exotics on the French Open. Nadal is favoured to win 3 – 0 on clay @ $2.55. Where I believe that is no chance I think of backing Nadal 3 – 1 @ $3.25 and 3 – 2 @ $5.25 to save on my original bet on the Djoker winning. Thereafter looking at first set Nadal favoured to win 6 – 3 or 6 – 4, this is stupid, the first set will go 7 –5 ($21) or 7 – 6 ($11). Total games 35 or under $2.15, line betting at 37 total games. Wow. Too much gambling. I believe it will go to 4 or 5 sets, there will be 1 or 2 tie-breakers, a set will be won about 6 – 2, probably the 3rd or 4th, and my estimate of games will be 43 to 50. Most importantly I rate the overall assessment, Nadal $1.80 Djokovic $2.25. Basically because it is played on clay.

11/6/12 French open diary note;

regarding the suspension in play, I have commented on last weeks blog “With Nadal up 2 sets to 1, and Dlokovic serving at 2 -1 in the 4th set when rain stopped play at Roland Garros, I am surprised that Nadal is at $1.35 to win while Novak is at $3.15.” Nadal did win the first set 6 – 4 and there hasn’t been a tie breaker. Djokovic won the 3rd 6 – 2. Total games are out to 45.5, so Nadal is now expected to win in 5. I still believe fair odds would be Nadal $1.80, Djokovic $2.25.

12/6/12

Game Set & Match (Championship) Djokovic serves a double fault. Nadal wins 6 – 4, 6 – 3, 2 – 6, 7 – 5.

Women’s is far different. Mostly it is wrapped up in 2 sets. Occassionally we get a real contest in the 3rd set. Sharapova was just as short. On clay if anything the Italian lass has slight advantage, and due to experience Sharapova slight favourite say $1.90, Errani $2.11. Anyway Sharapova won and it is clear that Sara Errani could not cope with the pressure. She was broken on her first and last service games in the second set.

Rugby Internationals and the Rugby Championship

I find the name “The Rugby Championship” to be grandiloquent to say these least. A bit like America calling baseball, “the world series”. The fact that the old 4 nations is now evolved into 6 nations, if they can’t use that name for merchandising reasons they could correctly use The 4 southern nations. The addition of the pumas will do strange things to the competition. Basically each team can expect a home win in each game, where bonus points as always will determine the ultimate winner. Last year was slightly different, where Australia beat South Africa in SA so only needed to win at Suncorp against the Allblacks to hoist the booty. NZ are rightful favourites and intend to hold the big Southern Hemisphere 3, World Cup, Southern 4 nations & Super Rugby title.

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20. There is no market yet on Sportsbet

Olympic Games

The Monk and Darcy story is hardly worth thinking about. Nick Darcy is typical virtuoso complex. Deeply troubled.

In the medals betting, Tab Sportsbet has raised the bar on line betting from 11.5 gold to 12.5 gold. Suggests that they may have taken a bit of cash.

Weekend 8th – 11th June. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 16

In Three Week Recess:

Best Bet:

Value: 

Rugby Internationals

See above for comment.

Best Bet: Nothing

Value: Reading the results in the Sunday papers. Getting unbiased commentary.

At the Margin: Any silly prices on the long shots. No odds yet offered.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 11

  • West Coast v Carlton (+27.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • Crows v St Kilda (+16.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • GWS (+60.5) v Richmond estimate market $8.00/$1.12 Actual $15.00/$1.02
  • Gold Coast (+36.5) v North estimate market $6/$1.20 Actual $6.00/$1.13
  • Hawks v Brisbane (+48.5) estimate market $1.30/$4.33 Actual $1.07/$8.50
  • Bulldogs v Port (+15.5) estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $1.45/$2.75

Best Bet:

Pricing says it all, West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond, Hawthorn and North should win but not at those prices

Value:

Port Adelaide***

At the Margin:

Carlton ???

*** Port Adelaide, last season’s wooden spooners tend to beat themselves. Footscray have one title in 1954 and have been in the finals 4 of the last 6 years. Port Adelaide lapse too often in the run of play but represent some real value here. I have gone out on a limb. If they play to potential the 15.5 start won’t be necessary, if they fail to show up they will need 60.5 start.

Demons (+44.5) v Collingwood estimate market $3.25/$1.44 Actual $8.00/$1.08

________________________________________

NRL – Round 15 – Split Round

  • Saints v Doggies – estimate market $2.60/$1.62 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • Cowboys v Broncos – estimate market $2.60/$1.62 Actual $1.85/$1.95
  • Sharks v Warriors – estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.05/$1.77
  • Eels v Rabbits – estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.50/$1.55
  • Titans v Panthers estimate market $1.80/$2.25Actual $1.50/$2.60
  • Tigers v Roosters – estimate market $1.60/$2.60 Actual $1.25/$3.20
  • Manly v Storm estimate market $2.11/$1.90Actual $1.85/$1.95

Best Bet:

Bulldogs

Value:

Parramatta, Storm

At The Margin:

Not available want to see teams

State of Origin:

My assessment NSW $2.66 Qld $1.60 actual $2.25/$1.65

 ________________________________________

Tennis

French Open

Sam Stosur is now into $3, the second in betting after Sharapova. No bet. The likely winner will come from the others, but just watch. In the men’s I can’t go past the $4.50 on Djokovic. I will bet 1 unit.

________________________________________

Soccer

 Asian Champions League – Soccer

 Asian Champions League – Soccer

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12
  • This Weekend –
  • 1 unit on Port Adelaide (AFL) @ $2.75
  • 1 unit on Bulldogs (NRL) @ $1.65
  • Look Further later

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    June 15, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Betting Update;
    1 unit on Port Adelaide (AFL) @ $2.75
    1 unit on Bulldogs (NRL) @ $1.65
    ½ unit on Melbourne Storm @ $2.40
    ½ unit on Parramatta Eels @ $2.50

    West Coast beat Carlton by 10, I was bit uncertain on taking Carlton with the start @ 27.5. That comp is grinding but illuminating. The front runners are really starting to come back to the pack, and you need to wonder about their realistic chances. The Crows and Hawks need comfortable wins.

    In NRL
    Most interest is on the 5 teams on equal 3rd. I feel that of the existing top 8 Warriors and Titans will threaten and maybe Parramatta will make a serious charge. Therefore 2 will fall by the wayside. While Slater is a massive loss to Melbourne, on their performance last Friday against Wests Tigers, dont under estimate them. Next Monday will be a top match, and I can’t go past the price on Storm. On past years, I wait to see Souths crumble and as intensity builds I wonder whether Cronulla have much improvement left in them. Doggies are the team who are really growing each week. I have already highlighted how Wests Tigers have got to start taking each game one at a time and don’t expect easy wins, go out and play to your best consistently. Cowboys are quiet vulnerable, and like Sharks are too much based around their couple of stars. Another injury or two will decimate any team. Souths loss of Sam Burgess is a fine example. Another 4 weeks on the sidelines. On Broncos v Cowboys I just want to watch. Both teams need the win.

    Happy Hunting and Good Punting

  2. Rookie Bookie
    June 15, 2012 at 4:04 pm

    The rumour started on Channel 1’s The Game Plan that Shane Richardson is in England to secure the signature of Brett Finch is mind boggling. John Sutton to lock or interchange rotation, with Finch at 5/8 could just work wonders. Sutton has always been a better lock than 5/8.

  3. Rookie Bookie
    June 16, 2012 at 3:37 am

    Late Mail
    Chris Sandow is the best exponent of the 40/20 in the game. Since his resurrection from State Cup he has not kicked one. I am placing a further 1 unit @ $4 for there to be a 40/20 in tomorrow nights game.

  4. big punter
    June 16, 2012 at 9:29 am

    home again on canterbury probably no more this weekend to busy celebrating

  5. Cowboy
    June 16, 2012 at 12:57 pm

    you bloody weasel dick … the hit or miss punter … Roolie might want a sling … is there an offer …

  6. Rookie Bookie
    June 16, 2012 at 2:04 pm

    Bulldogs have got the Storm next weekend. Now in 2nd spot on the ladder, it is the clash of the heavy weights. I was not happy they allowed Saints back into the game last night, but that is not without respect for Saints. Should Melbourne struggle against Manly on Monday Doggies will be short. Before Mondays match up I rate next weekend Storm $1.67 Doggies $2.50. Monday’s clash is very very important. You must giive respect to Des Hasler. On paper the Canterbury forwards are not earth shattering, but they are playing champagne footie.

  7. Rookie Bookie
    June 16, 2012 at 11:07 pm

    Souths got up, and my doubting them has cost. Parramatta gave everything possible, and it wasn’t enough. The straight line defence of Souths was impregnable and for mine in defence 2nd Burgess and Reynolds were complete. In the 62nd minute Sandow put on the 40/20 and I am not sure whether it was Inglis or Everingham knocked it back into play, but it was too easily diffused. Souths were ready for it. Souths are real, but next Friday we get to see whether they are good enough against a premiership threat, the Broncos. The Broncos are slipping largely because of Griffen’s selection policy and will return to winning form after SOO but it will possibly cost them a top 4 spot. I tend to support Anthony Griffen.

    Snoop Poop and I have been discussing for most of this year, NSW next half back. Snoopy wants Peter Wallace, and at this stage I agree. Pearce has not got enough. In fact even winning last Wednesday the NSW kicking game was so lame. Slater while injured returned every kick from Carney or Pearce and importantly it was a waste of time. Never did the ball sit up in goal threatening, thereby an easy turn over. We also tend to agree that Adam Reynolds from Souths has potential.

    Other flip of the coin in SOO 3 Slater is most doubtful, and Qld has three options, Barba, Bowen or Inglis. I expect Inglis to fullback and Bowen to wing, and Tate to outside centre. What a wonderful problem, compared to NSW needing to fix their kicking game, and actually threaten. Just give NSW Thurston for 40 minutes to balance up the equation. Stuart has stated he wants consistency over reactive selections. Well just replace Uate.

    Sharkies beat Warriors by a point. Massive for Cronulla but not the end of the road for Warriors like Parra. This comp is so exciting. Can first Manly then Canterbury beat Melbourne?

    Despite my bet on Monday night, go Manly and go Canterbury. We are going to see some truly great drama.

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