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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 15th – 18th June, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
15th – 18th June, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3
  • 13th June 2012 – Value of GI – (+) 497.3

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 8th – 11th June.

Betting

Lost on Djokovic, collect on NSW 2 @ $1.95/3 less stake is +ve 0.3

Review

I was tentative about Storm without Slater, Smith and Cronk. Thought Bellamy wanted something extra from his charges, but was shocked when it turned out so close. Wests Tigers are just too relaxed and unpredictable.

9/6/12 French open diary note;

Totally mesmerised by the exotics on the French Open. Nadal is favoured to win 3 – 0 on clay @ $2.55. Where I believe that is no chance I think of backing Nadal 3 – 1 @ $3.25 and 3 – 2 @ $5.25 to save on my original bet on the Djoker winning. Thereafter looking at first set Nadal favoured to win 6 – 3 or 6 – 4, this is stupid, the first set will go 7 –5 ($21) or 7 – 6 ($11). Total games 35 or under $2.15, line betting at 37 total games. Wow. Too much gambling. I believe it will go to 4 or 5 sets, there will be 1 or 2 tie-breakers, a set will be won about 6 – 2, probably the 3rd or 4th, and my estimate of games will be 43 to 50. Most importantly I rate the overall assessment, Nadal $1.80 Djokovic $2.25. Basically because it is played on clay.

11/6/12 French open diary note;

regarding the suspension in play, I have commented on last weeks blog “With Nadal up 2 sets to 1, and Dlokovic serving at 2 -1 in the 4th set when rain stopped play at Roland Garros, I am surprised that Nadal is at $1.35 to win while Novak is at $3.15.” Nadal did win the first set 6 – 4 and there hasn’t been a tie breaker. Djokovic won the 3rd 6 – 2. Total games are out to 45.5, so Nadal is now expected to win in 5. I still believe fair odds would be Nadal $1.80, Djokovic $2.25.

12/6/12

Game Set & Match (Championship) Djokovic serves a double fault. Nadal wins 6 – 4, 6 – 3, 2 – 6, 7 – 5.

Women’s is far different. Mostly it is wrapped up in 2 sets. Occassionally we get a real contest in the 3rd set. Sharapova was just as short. On clay if anything the Italian lass has slight advantage, and due to experience Sharapova slight favourite say $1.90, Errani $2.11. Anyway Sharapova won and it is clear that Sara Errani could not cope with the pressure. She was broken on her first and last service games in the second set.

Rugby Internationals and the Rugby Championship

I find the name “The Rugby Championship” to be grandiloquent to say these least. A bit like America calling baseball, “the world series”. The fact that the old 4 nations is now evolved into 6 nations, if they can’t use that name for merchandising reasons they could correctly use The 4 southern nations. The addition of the pumas will do strange things to the competition. Basically each team can expect a home win in each game, where bonus points as always will determine the ultimate winner. Last year was slightly different, where Australia beat South Africa in SA so only needed to win at Suncorp against the Allblacks to hoist the booty. NZ are rightful favourites and intend to hold the big Southern Hemisphere 3, World Cup, Southern 4 nations & Super Rugby title.

My assessment is NZ $2, Australia $4.00, SA $5.00, Argentina $20. There is no market yet on Sportsbet

Olympic Games

The Monk and Darcy story is hardly worth thinking about. Nick Darcy is typical virtuoso complex. Deeply troubled.

In the medals betting, Tab Sportsbet has raised the bar on line betting from 11.5 gold to 12.5 gold. Suggests that they may have taken a bit of cash.

Weekend 8th – 11th June. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 16

In Three Week Recess:

Best Bet:

Value: 

Rugby Internationals

See above for comment.

Best Bet: Nothing

Value: Reading the results in the Sunday papers. Getting unbiased commentary.

At the Margin: Any silly prices on the long shots. No odds yet offered.

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AFL – Round – 11

  • West Coast v Carlton (+27.5) estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • Crows v St Kilda (+16.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • GWS (+60.5) v Richmond estimate market $8.00/$1.12 Actual $15.00/$1.02
  • Gold Coast (+36.5) v North estimate market $6/$1.20 Actual $6.00/$1.13
  • Hawks v Brisbane (+48.5) estimate market $1.30/$4.33 Actual $1.07/$8.50
  • Bulldogs v Port (+15.5) estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $1.45/$2.75

Best Bet:

Pricing says it all, West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond, Hawthorn and North should win but not at those prices

Value:

Port Adelaide***

At the Margin:

Carlton ???

*** Port Adelaide, last season’s wooden spooners tend to beat themselves. Footscray have one title in 1954 and have been in the finals 4 of the last 6 years. Port Adelaide lapse too often in the run of play but represent some real value here. I have gone out on a limb. If they play to potential the 15.5 start won’t be necessary, if they fail to show up they will need 60.5 start.

Demons (+44.5) v Collingwood estimate market $3.25/$1.44 Actual $8.00/$1.08

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NRL – Round 15 – Split Round

  • Saints v Doggies – estimate market $2.60/$1.62 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • Cowboys v Broncos – estimate market $2.60/$1.62 Actual $1.85/$1.95
  • Sharks v Warriors – estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.05/$1.77
  • Eels v Rabbits – estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.50/$1.55
  • Titans v Panthers estimate market $1.80/$2.25Actual $1.50/$2.60
  • Tigers v Roosters – estimate market $1.60/$2.60 Actual $1.25/$3.20
  • Manly v Storm estimate market $2.11/$1.90Actual $1.85/$1.95

Best Bet:

Bulldogs

Value:

Parramatta, Storm

At The Margin:

Not available want to see teams

State of Origin:

My assessment NSW $2.66 Qld $1.60 actual $2.25/$1.65

 ________________________________________

Tennis

French Open

Sam Stosur is now into $3, the second in betting after Sharapova. No bet. The likely winner will come from the others, but just watch. In the men’s I can’t go past the $4.50 on Djokovic. I will bet 1 unit.

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Soccer

 Asian Champions League – Soccer

 Asian Champions League – Soccer

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Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12 @ $1.87
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12
  • This Weekend –
  • 1 unit on Port Adelaide (AFL) @ $2.75
  • 1 unit on Bulldogs (NRL) @ $1.65
  • Look Further later

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The Rookie Bookie …

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EYE-BALL Guru on – Glen Stevens – is he the right man to be running the RBA?

June 14, 2012 Comments off
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Title:
Glen Stevens –
… is he the right man to be running the RBA?
14th June 2012.
The head of the RBA, Mr Glenn Stephens gave an address to the Prime Minister’s Economic Forum in Brisbane yesterday, and made comments that Australian businesses should lift productivity to combat the rising A$ value.His advice is small comfort to the tourism, manufacturing, retail, primary producers and miners.  It is also a case of ducking the real issue.  Rather than have the whole of Australia suffer under a high A$ value – why not get out in the market and do something pro-active to not make the A$ such a ‘speculative currency’ that attracts the speculative investors.  Why pursue a high interest rate policy to fight inflation when inflation is and never will be a problem over the next decade or so?

Why put all of the responsibility to deal with the A$ high value back onto business when all it would take would be some innovative Government policies like that of Switzerland, and other Nations, who fight to protect the value of their Nations exports, and at home industries.

Mr Stevens – by your comments as expressed in the below report on your speech –  use this link to hear full speech –  you have never even thought to manage the currency value as a part of the RBA’s mandate.    The ABC report is published below:

Boost productivity to combat high dollar: RBA

| 14th June 2012 | By chief political correspondent Simon Cullen | Link to ABC Ol-Line story. |

Mr Stevens told the Prime Minister’s Economic Forum in Brisbane that the high exchange rate was not necessarily a bad thing, but it did mean that businesses and governments must look at how workplaces can become more efficient.

He says Australia should stop “pretending” it can compete against the low-wage economies of Asia, and instead focus on productivity gains.

“Better productivity is the imperative to survive,” Mr Stevens told the audience.

“The test really is how many of those enterprises can get the productivity up, because that’s really the way out in terms of coping with a high exchange rate.”

The RBA governor issued a challenge to business leaders to adapt to the new economic environment, and for governments to ensure there were no impediments to such adaptation.

Mr Stevens says productivity growth has fallen in the past six to eight years, and it will take unpopular decisions to turn it around.

He is urging the Government to carry out the Productivity Commission’s “long list” of reform ideas, although he warns that some of the changes will be very difficult to implement, and “politically hard” for governments to achieve.

Mr Stevens’s comments came at the start of the forum, where business leaders, union representatives and senior Government figures are meeting to consider the “hard questions” facing the nation’s economy.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard insists her aim is to “collect good ideas” from forum participants, and then try to implement them.

But she used her opening speech last night to urge delegates to “speak up” about the strength of the local economy to boost confidence.

“The bad news from overseas is making more noise at the moment than hailstones on a tin roof,” Ms Gillard said.

“Those of us who know how strong our economy overall really is do have to speak up to be heard.”

The Government has consistently pointed the finger at the Coalition, accusing Opposition MPs of talking down the domestic economy in the face of positive economic news.

But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has rejected the idea that he is to blame for the lack of confidence.

“I want our country and our economy to be everything it could be, but with the current Government that’s very hard to do,” Mr Abbott told ABC Local Radio.

“It would be much better if we didn’t have a carbon tax, if we didn’t have a mining tax, if we hadn’t abolished the ABCC (Australian Building and Construction Commission).”
Dollar benefits

One of the Government’s main concerns at the forum is the effect of high Australian dollar on trade-exposed industries, particularly manufacturing and exporters.

But Mr Stevens warned against wishing too quickly for a lower exchange rate.

“Every time we put petrol in our car, every time we go to a store and buy consumer durables or clothing – a lot of which is imported – every time we travel overseas, we are benefiting from the high exchange rate,” Mr Stevens said.

“The exchange rate is one of the devices that is imparting to us the higher wealth that the mining boom brings.”

He also pointed out that in the past few years, there has been a significant shift in household spending, away from the unsustainably low levels of saving before the global financial crisis.

“I don’t think we’re going to go back anytime soon to the preceding behaviour, and frankly I don’t think we should go back to that behaviour,” Mr Stevens said.

But he conceded that the “return to thrift” was posing a challenge for retailers.

Mr Stevens – there is not a lot more to be said – the comments you have made in this speech makes us all aware that you are not qualified to be the ‘safe-keeper’ of the Australian economy.  Either your advisors need to be sacked – or you need to have a hard look at your comments and ask yourself why have you allowed the A$ value to rise without the RBA in there making decisions that protect Australian Industry from overseas speculators and competition.

I’ll debate this with you anytime and you can tell me why you stood back and watched A$100’s billions of trade revenues get stripped from the Australian economy and its industries.  Over to you Mr Stevens.

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The EYE-BALL Guru …

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