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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 8th – 11th June, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
8th – 11th June, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2
  • 6th June 2012 – Value of GI = (+)  467.3

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 1st – 4th June.

Collect on Stormers @ $2.20 and Hurricanes @ 2.25 each ½ unit. $4.45/6 is a return of 74.167% ie index is down 25.833. Lost on NRL parlay Warriors lost to Storm, and on larger parlay Natal Sharks lost to Lions, and in AFL Weagles lost to Brisbane Lions. 3 bets will not settle for 2 plus months. Australia Olympic Gold, and Super Rugby Final. Hurricanes blew in the betting against NSW Waratahs.

In Super Rugby it was a strange round where many minds are on international commitments. Crusaders absolutely thrashed Otago Highlanders running two wide of the ruck and busting them at will. The Chiefs and Auckland match was also very open running rugby, and if the Chiefs expect to get away with that in the final series they are a waste of space. Chiefs seriously did not deserve a 4 try bonus point, they conceded 4 tries. Silly system, anyway Otago now need a miracle. The New Zealand conference is between Chiefs, Crusaders and Wellington. Similar in South Africa, Sharks played near flawless game last weekend against Stormers and then have a rest against the lowly placed Lions, putting all their hard work to nought. They picked up a consolation bonus point. They can now only aspire to the Bulls match in round 17 at home to secure a minor spot in the semi’s. Their finals path will require 3 tough consecutive wins. The Brumbies story is similar they simply need to focus on beating Waratahs, where NSW will be playing for a decent finish to the season.

In NRL there were many points of note. Wests Tigers were awesome, and now play a very weakened Storm this Friday. Canterbury v Souths and Melbourne v Warriors both lived up to expectation, Titans are back, and Broncos while inflicted a massive victory over Knights really need to look at how Knights busted them at will behind the ruck. Broncos and Souths really need to worry about their defensive lapses. About Souths v Canterbury the strange part is in two matches this year, the two run of play are exact opposite. At Easter Canterbury had all the ball and lead after 20 minutes, and got run down whereas on Saturday night Souths lost after leading 12 nil at the 20 point mark. We will see that contest again in a sudden death final later this year.

In AFL the season has hit the wall. Weagles and Essendon both lost to cellar dweller teams. I expected a much better showing from Melbourne Demons, but could not back themto beat the Bombers. They were quoted at $10 early. Brisbane Lions are simply so undisciplined. Just like Raiders in NRL. Knowing which teams want to go on with the momentum is simply so tough. If the teams like Brisbane Lions or Canberra Raiders could focus on not giving away silly penalties at critical moments they would be a force to contend with week in and week out.

Olympic Games

Emma Jackson the world under 23 triathlon champion selected and Emma Snowsill the world champion and Beijing gold medalist left out of our triathlon team. Very exciting, however girls just remember the arch-enemy is the chooms. Save your venom for London. Emma has a heavy cross to bear. Good luck.

Weekend 8th – 11th June. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 16

In Three Week Recess:

Best Bet:

Value: 

Rugby Internationals

These are trials. Australia will be working on combinations. South Africa will not be that heavily committed. Allblacks expect to win 3 to 0. I will probably settle for simply watching highlights. With 16 Super Rugby matches and 10 tests that is a heavy workload for the elite. Rotation is imperative. Australia’s loss to Scotland 9 – 6 on a windy and rainy Newcastle is just that. A loss. Scrappy and not newsworthy. On that display, other teams would defeat either. For Scotland is it simply an end of season tour? I would not be surprised to see Wales defeat Wallabies in this series. For all the British, they are playing for selection as a British Lion next year. That is one of the highest honours in their game.

Best Bet: Nothing

Value: Reading the results in the Sunday papers. Getting unbiased commentary.

At the Margin: Any silly prices on the long shots. No odds yet offered.

____________________________________

AFL – Round – 11

  • Carlton (+10.5) v Geelong estimate market $2.40/$1.72 Actual $2.60/$1.50
  • Richmond v Fremantle (+30.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.20/$4.60
  • Gold Coast (+44.5) v Saints estimate market $6.00/$1.20 Actual $8.00/$1.08
  • Bombers v Swans (+9.5) estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.60/$2.35
  • Power (+24.5) v Hawks estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $4.00/$1.25
  • Demons (+44.5) v Collingwood estimate market $3.25/$1.44 Actual $8.00/$1.08

Best Bet:

The upsets are so common, but don’t really follow any rhyme or reason. Brisbane Lions had 3 wins prior to last weekend, Gold Coast, Demons & Giants. Now they have the scalp of West Coast Eagles. Fancied team wants a break, and under dog sniffs a win. It is tough working on those probabilities.

Value (and) At The Margins:

Anything at silly odds, I am taking a bye, as are 6 teams. See Fremantle Dockers odds, maybe even Port Adelaide, could Demons make it 2 in a row, they are walking on eggshells?

At the Margin:

See Above.

________________________________________

NRL – Round 14 – Split Round

  • Storm (+6.5) v Tigers – estimate market $2.25/$1.78 Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Knights v Raiders (+4.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.55/$2.50
  • Sharks v Titans (+3.5) – estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.70/$2.20
  • Roosters v Broncos (+2.5) – estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $1.75/$2.10
  • Panthers (+6.5) v Warriors estimate market $3.50/$1.40Actual $2.85/$1.45

Best Bet:

Warriors

Value:

Nil

Not without a chance:

Nil

State of Origin:

My assessment NSW $1.95 Qld $2.05 actual $1.95/$1.85

 ________________________________________

Tennis

French Open

Sam Stosur is now into $3, the second in betting after Sharapova. No bet. The likely winner will come from the others, but just watch. In the men’s I can’t go past the $4.50 on Djokovic. I will bet 1 unit.

________________________________________

Soccer

Asian Champions League – Soccer

Ukraine is the first soviet satelite to host the cup since the collapse of the iron curtain. French moves to boycott the Ukraine elements of the cup has thrown the tournament into disarray. If  players are not focussed on football then what? Teams including heavyweights like Germany, France, Italy, Spain and England are much harder to predict. I predicted big campaigns by Russia, England and Croatia, but now feel those nations with higher affinity to Moscow will do best. The racial tensions do not help. The French negroes are scared to play matches in either Poland or Ukraine due to the white supremacist gangs that are the football hooligans of those nations. Russia are quoted at $17. Of the favoured teams Germany at $4 are hardly good value.

On that basis I will not be betting but merely watching. A match between Greece and Germany would be explosive. There are many other potentialities.

 Asian Champions League – Soccer

Quarter final draw is to be conducted on June 14. Tab Sportsbet have the winners market still suspended, which is to say they have no idea, and know that sentimental money will come for Adelaide United so they will keep them short at about 9 – 2. Similar will hold for each match, there will be no real value.

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12

This Weekend –

  • jokovic to win the French Open 1 unit @ $4.50
  • NSW Cockroaches 2 units to win 2nd SOO @ $1.95

 

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. david the pragmatist
    June 6, 2012 at 6:26 pm

    Ok Rookie/Snoopy or whoever you are, a bit of recognition of the mighty Parramatta launch for the Premiership.
    I figured if we win our next 10 games and eight teams lose 4 points each for rorting the salary cap, we can do it.
    In the meantime start getting ready for one all in the SOO.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    June 7, 2012 at 12:22 am

    Parramatta deserve due recognition for their win over the Sharks. The Sharks are an honest team, and therefore I would not take anything away from the Eels. On paper Eels should be competitive. I said in about round 4 they need to learn to win. That could be said as “how much fire do they have in the belly”. Every Sydney sider loved their run in 2009 (maybe not Saints supporters). Protect us from the infidels (the Storm). I consider them premiers after Melbourne’s disqualification. You can’t have no result in team sport. Does that mean the wooden spooners, Easts were co premiers?

    If Parra was to win every match from now, they would deserve great admiration. Maybe they could drop one more and still fit into the 8. Simply aim up.

    As we were taught at school, “Play up, Play up, and play the game”.

  3. June 7, 2012 at 8:52 am

    As much as I respect your punting instincts – your creditability on NSW SOO team reversing the way of things is at risk – your emotive attachment to the Blues has you gaga on this one Rookie … I would be happy to lay NSW at $1.95 for all you want …

    Snoopy.

  4. david the pramatist
    June 7, 2012 at 9:45 am

    Ha! I have learnt something. Rookie Bookie knows what he is talking about and has passion.
    Snoopie is just what his name implies, nothing more than a Maronic one eyed Qlder who is revelling in his “dog day” Look out Snoopy your day is coming as it does to all dogs.

  5. Rookie Bookie
    June 9, 2012 at 9:20 am

    In the tennis Djokovic was $5 before his 3 sets win over Federer. I secured $5. Nadal is still about 4’s on to win tomorrow night. That means likely price on Djokovic at about $3.50. All the money has been for Nadal since Federer declared Rafael a certainty 12 days ago.

    As a side bet I have backed Sara Errani to win the women’s final @ $4.30. I felt both Sharapova and Stosur were too short in the odds, and was wanting to back either Kvitova or Serrani.

  6. Rookie Bookie
    June 11, 2012 at 12:19 pm

    With Nadal up 2 sets to 1, and Dlokovic serving at 2 -1 in the 4th set when rain stopped play at Roland Garros, I am surprised that Nadal is at $1.35 to win while Novak is at $3.15.

  7. big punter
    June 12, 2012 at 7:33 am

    thanks one bet warriors

  8. League Leg End
    June 12, 2012 at 6:18 pm

    Mr Snoopy,
    one bet 100,000 kahunas no tears, even stevens, your toads my beloved blues

  9. June 12, 2012 at 6:26 pm

    In NSW terms is that mexican kahunas, or cockroach kahunas … whatever the currency it’s on … will settlement be in postdated flybuys when you lose …

  10. League Leg End
    June 12, 2012 at 6:39 pm

    I know where you live, and you know where to find me. I won’t be paying out.

  11. June 12, 2012 at 7:47 pm

    LOL … (thats laughter not love …) 95,000 cane toads will be harder to collect than 100,000 cockroaches …

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