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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 1st – 4th June, 2012

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
1st – 4th June, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2
  • 30th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 492.2

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 25th -28th May.

Collect on Titans @ $2.45 and Brisbane Lions @1.90 from six bets of ½ unit. $4.50/6 is a return of 75% ie index is down 25. 3 bets will not settle for 2 plus months. Australia Olympic Gold, and Super Rugby Final.

Not happy with ACT Brumbies result, good result for Natal Sharks. Reds expected to climb over Brumbies in finals playoff calculations. This is a champion Brumbies team emerging. The AIS is at it again.

In NRL it is not easy to know players motivations. Manly lost because Penrith showed up, and Manly did not. 6 – 4 at half time Penrith run in 3 unanswered 2nd half tries. Interesting to note referee Sean Hampstead demoted this weekend. No chance of him getting 2nd SOO gig. I support Anthony Griffin caring about SOO player welfare, I expect more burn out in teams. Wests Tigers have really hit their straps. Canterbury Bulldogs just get stronger. They really want this return bout over Souths. Doggies v Rabbits, match of the round. Why is on Saturday night?

In AFL Dockers lost in 3rd quarter when they got too physical, and there were many other critical points or incidents in too many games. Example are Hawthorne serious? Richmond Tigers are really doing good stuff, two weeks ago they had a patchy win. Demons will turn up against Bombers this week but they are becoming a bad joke.

Olympic Games

The selection of a baby team in cycling is illuminating. Can we pick up 2 to 3 cycling gold medals. It will so tough. There will be medals but how many will be golden?

The bellyaching by the mens hockey team is silly. What did they expect? They really need to focus. Is this trying to fire them up? In London there is home ground advantage, and if the Kookaburra’s allow this to upset them it will. Don’t start making excuses, we love you anyway.

I am excited in the field team. Is there a gold or 2 in field?

Matt Mitcham is a hero, Go Matt! One day he might join the legendary Snowy Baker. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reginald_Baker

Weekend 1st – 4th June. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 15

  • Crusaders v Highlanders (+10.5) estimate market $1.85/$2.17 Actual $1.20/$4.20.
  • Rebels (+9.5) v Brumbies estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.75/$1.25
  • Blues (+9.5) v Chiefs estimate market $4.00/$1.25 Actual $3.75/$1.25
  • Waratahs v Hurricanes estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.80/$1.95
  • Lions (+10.5) v Sharks estimate market $11.00/$1.10 Actual $4.50/$1.18
  • Bulls v Stormers (+2.5) estimate market $2.20/$1.80 Actual $1.68/$2.10

Best Bet:

Sharks & Chiefs, then Brumbies

Value: 

Hurricanes, they posted biggest score of season against Rebels. Stormers

At the Margin:

Highlanders

The run home to Finals

  • Chiefs – Blues (a) Highlanders (a) Crusaders (h) Hurricanes (a) only 4 easy comp points next weekend, then very vulnerable 3 successive matches, still in semis, which spot. They want 1st or 2nd.
  • Stormers – Pretoria (a) Transvaal (h) Free State (a) Rebels (h) at least 12 comp points win this weekend should deliver conference winner, loss anyone’s guess, 4th – 6th.
  • Brumbies – Rebels (a) Force (a) Waratahs (a) Blues (h) at least 12 points, match against Tahs in Sydney critical, previously 27 – 6. Hard to see them miss the playoffs.
  • Bulls – Capetown (h) Free State (h) Natal (a) Transvaal (h) two tough matches, Stormers and Sharks. 2 wins plus bonus points, all down to game against Sharks. I have backed Sharks.
  • Crusaders – Highlanders (a) Hurricanes (h) Chiefs (a) Force (h) too unpredictable, 3 tough matches each testing material.
    Sharks – Transvaal (a) bye Pretoria (h) Free State (h) everything rides on Bulls in Round 17
  • Highlanders – Crusaders (a) Chiefs (h) Reds (a) bye, thank heavens for the bye, 4 guaranteed pts. Current form poor, but Crusaders are not reliable enough.
  • Reds – bye Rebels (a) Highlanders (h) Waratahs (h) Otago at home, then Tahs at Suncorp? Expected to take 6th spot but Waratahs intend to stop them.
    Hurricanes –Waratahs (a) Crusaders bye (a) Chiefs (h) 8 points not enough must defeat Crusaders and or Chiefs.

After next weekend there is a three-week break for tests against northerners.

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AFL – Round – 10

  • Saints v Tiges (+2.5) estimate market $2.22/$1.80 Actual $1.80/$2.00
  • Cats v Giants estimate market $1.10/$11.00 Actual no market GWS $34
  • Hawks v Roos (+26.5) estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.23/$4.00
  • Dockers (+8.5) v Crows estimate market $2.33/$1.75 Actual $2.30/$1.60
  • Bombers v Demons (52.5) estimate market $1.10/$11.0 Actual $1.04/$10.00
  • Power (+19.5) v Blues estimate market $4.00/$1.25 Actual $3.25/$1.33
  • Lions (+27.5) v Weagles estimate market $4.00/$1.25 Actual $4.40/$1.20
  • Sydney v Footscray (+27.5) estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.23/$4.00
  • Pies v Suns estimate market $1.10/$11.00 Actual no market Suns $34

Best Bet:

West Coast Eagles

Value:

Nil

At the Margin:

Melbourne Dees

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NRL – Round 13

  • Titans (+2.5) v Cowboys – estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.20/$1.70
  • Manly v Saints (+6.5) – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.47/$2.75
  • Raiders (+6.5) v Tigers – estimate market $3.50/$1.42 Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Bulldogs (+1.5) v Rabbitohs – estimate market $2.00/$2.00 Actual $2.00/$1.85
  • Broncos v Knights (+14.5) estimate market $1.20/$6.00 Actual $1.18/$5.00
  • Warriors (+3.5) v Storm – estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.50/$1.55
  • Eels (+5.5) v Sharks estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $2.50/$1.55

Best Bet:

Wests Tigers

Value:

Warriors

Not without a chance:

Knights

State of Origin:

My assessment NSW $1.95 Qld $2.05 actual $2.05/$1.75 – The implied price in 3rd match at Suncorp is Qld very short  like $1.58.

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Tennis

French Open

Our Sam is $8 to win the Women’s title very short, unders, while Djokovic is $4 which means Nadal is unders. Federer has declared Nadal a certainty. Not @ $1.55

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Soccer

Asian Champions League – Soccer

Go Adelaide No prices available yet.

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Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units) bet placed 19/5/12
  • ACT Brumbies ($12) and Natal Sharks ($11) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea) bet placed 19/5/12
  • This Weekend –
  • Parlay 1 unit Sharks (Rugby) all up, Chiefs all up, Brumbies all up, Weagles (AFL) = 1.18 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.2 =  $2.21
  • Super Rugby ½ unit on Hurricanes @ $1.95 & further ½ unit on Stormers @ $2.10
  • Parlay NRL 1 unit on Wests Tigers all up NZ Warriors = 1.47 x 2.50 = $3.675

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The Rookie Bookie …

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