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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 25th – 28th May –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
25th – 28th May, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3
  • 23rd May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 517.2

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 18th -21st May.

Chelsea 2 units @ 2.65 plus ½ unit on Brumbies @ 2.65 plus 1 unit on Rebels @ 1.90, Warriors lost (1 unit) and Giants lost (1 ½ units). Win 84.16667 Tough work.

Olympic Games

I am going long Australian Gold medals @ 11.5 odds are $1.87. It is merely an interest, and indicative of my loyalty. 2 units

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Weekend 25th – 28th May. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 14

  • Chiefs v Bulls estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.45/$2.65.
  • Hurricanes v Rebels estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.87/$1.87
  • Blues v Highlanders estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $1.20/$4.20
  • Brumbies v Reds estimate market $2.20/$1.81 Actual $1.07/$8.00
  • Force v Lions estimate market $1.90/$2.11Actual $1.68/$2.10
  • Cheetahs v Waratahs estimate market $2.20/$1.81 Actual $1.30/$3.30
  • Sharks v Stormers estimate market $2.20/$1.80 Actual $1.87/$1.87

Best Bet:

Brumbies & Sharks to win Super 15 Final played October 6, 2012 (each ½ unit)

Value: 

Nil

At the Margin:

Nil

The run home to Finals

  • Stormers – Natal (a) Pretoria (a) Transvaal (h) Free State (a) Rebels (h)
  • Chiefs – Bulls (h) Blues (a) Highlanders (a) Crusaders (h) Hurricanes (a)
  • Brumbies – Reds (h) Rebels (a) Force (a) Waratahs (a) Blues (h)
  • Bulls – Chiefs (a) Capetown (h) Free State (h) Natal (a) Transvaal (h)
  • Crusaders – bye Highlanders (a) Hurricanes (h) Chiefs (a) Force (h)
  • Sharks – Capetown (h) Transvaal (a) bye Pretoria (h) Free State (h)
  • Highlanders – Auckland (h) Crusaders (a) Chiefs (h) Reds (a) bye
  • Reds – Brumbies (a) bye Rebels (a) Highlanders (h) Waratahs (h)
  • Hurricanes – Rebels (h) Waratahs (a) Crusaders bye (a) Chiefs (h)

Thoughts – This weekend Chiefs v Bulls is as imperative to NZ conference winner as will be round 17 clash with Crusaders. At stake is home final(s). For Australian conference this weekend Brumbies v Reds at Canberra Stadium is Reds last chance to feature as conference winner, and should Brumbies win they could finish maybe 2nd overall. For the Reds, firstly the winner may determine Australian conference, and secondly whether Australia can even get 2 into final series. For Waratahs 13 points adrift of 6th spot would need to win their last matches with bonus points to be a mathematical chance. Waratahs are spoiling value. I believe the current tussle between Otago and Natal for 6th spot will remain. Natal Sharks have a slightly easier run, which factors in Stormers match this weekend. At Capetown Stormers beat Sharks in round 2 15-12. This weekend Sharks have hometown advantage, and should they win it throws the SA conference wide open. This all seems to be too good for 7 times champions Canterbury Crusaders. My heart is on Chiefs but my head says Pretoria’s Bulls.

This weekend, rather than look at individual matches I want to look at final winners. The value I think you will find is in Natal Sharks and ACT Brumbies. Both must win this weekend. Both will be torrid matches. For that same logics is there a mismatch this weekend. Force v Lions is the wooden spoon battle. Cheetahs v Waratahs is of little consequence. Highlanders should account for Auckland Blues fairly easily, however Blues need to restore after being thrashed 59 –12 in Christchurch. Hurricanes should beat Rebels, but the Rebels live up to their name. No matter which way I analyse it I see Bulls and Sharks and Brumbies this weekend. If the three home teams were to win (Chiefs, Brumbies and Sharks) I expect the final market will become Crusaders, then anyone’s guess….. Bulls. Stormers will still look ok.

After round 15 there is a three week hibernation while Australia plays Wales, and NZ (Ireland) and SA (England) do their stuff. This leads into 4 nations where Argentina’s prep games are against France. This weekend’s matches are so big.

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AFL – Round – 8

  • Bulldogs v Cats estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $5.00/$1.16
  • Tigers v Hawks estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.45/$1.30
  • Suns v Power estimate market $5.00/$1.25 Actual $2.70/$1.45
  • Saints v Swans estimate market $2.05/$1.95 Actual $1.90/$1.90
  • Giants v Bombers estimate market $11.00/$1.10 Actual $15/$1.01
  • Crows v Magpies estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $1.50/$2.55
  • North v Lions estimate market $1.70/$2.42 Actual $1.25/$3.85
  • Blues v Demons estimate market $1.25/$5 Actual $1.05/$9/00
  • Weagles v Dockers estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.38/$3.00

Notes Collingwood have won 18 of their 32 quarters 56%, while Adelaide have won 21 65.6%.Collingwood have beaten Essendon and Geelong and lost to Carlton and Hawthorn. Adelaide have beaten Sydney, Carlton and Geelong but have played easier teams up until now, having been beaten by Hawks in Round 3. Should Adelaide win here they will be considered genuine contenders. Big match. Betting genuinely surprises me need to see who is out of Magpies.

Saints and Swans is the other big match up. Saints lost to West Coast, beat Carlton, lost to Hawthorn, Fremantle and Port Adelaide. Swans are nearly as inconsistent. Swans need this scalp to stay in touch. It is a big match too. Saints are not top 4 material, but Swans want to establish that here.

Dockers do not deserve that price. It will be a close call. I am also surprised at price on Bulldogs, Geelong could be flat after Collingwood loss or could seek redemption. Next week they have Giants, then Carlton. Need to think deeply on margin.

Best Bet:

No best bet

Value:

Collingwood, Brisbane Lions

At the Margin:

Dockers

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NRL – Round 12 (split round)

  • Melbourne v Brisbane – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.45/$2.75
  • Souths v Canberra – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.30/$3.60
  • Knights v Titans – estimate market $2.20/$1.82 Actual $1.55/$2.45
  • Saints v Parramatta estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.45/$2.75
  • Panthers v Manly estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.00/$1.40
  • Tigers v Cowboys estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.55/$2.45
  • Roosters v Bulldogs estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $2.45/$1.55
  • SOO – Qld $1.50 NSW +5.5 $2.60 – My estimate $1.67/$2.50

Series:  My Estimate   Qld 3 Nil – $4.00           Actual $3.75

Qld 2 – 1 $2.00             Actual $2.25

NSW 2-1 $5.25              Actual $3.25

Best Bet:

No good value, most probable winners Souths, Manly, Bulldogs & Storm

Value:

Titans, Cowboys, Broncos

Not without a chance:

Cowboys

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Tennis

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UEFA Soccer

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Betting Summary

  • Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units)
  • ACT Brumbies ($11) and Natal Sharks ($12) to win Super Rugby 6/10/12 (½ unit ea)

Further post on Thursday after SOO and when more betting and SOO injury toll is available

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The Rookie Bookie …

 

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    May 25, 2012 at 10:40 am

    Chiefs v Bulls (+6.5) estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.40/$2.80.
    Hurricanes v Rebels (+9.5) estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.25/$3.75
    Blues (+2.5) v Highlanders estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $2.25/$1.60
    Brumbies v Reds estimate market $2.20/$1.81 Actual $1.90/$1.90
    Force v Lions (+6.5) estimate market $1.90/$2.11Actual $1.40/$2.80
    Cheetahs v Waratahs (+2.5)estimate market $2.20/$1.81 Actual $1.65/$2.15
    Sharks v Stormers estimate market $2.20/$1.80 Actual $1.75/$2.00

    Bet; Brumbies & Sharks to win Super 15 Final played August 1, 2012 (each ½ unit)
    Value; Lions, Waratahs, Bulls
    At the Margin; Bulls, Lions

    NRL
    Melbourne v Brisbane (+6.5) – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.45/$2.85
    Souths v Canberra (+10.5) – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.22/$4.50
    Knights v Titans (+5.5) – estimate market $2.20/$1.82 Actual $1.50/$2.60
    Saints v Parramatta (+7.5) – estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.40/$3.00
    Panthers (+7.5) v Manly estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.25/$1.35
    Tigers v Cowboys (+4.5) – estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.55/$2.45
    Roosters (+3.5) v Bulldogs estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $2.35/$1.60

    Best Bet; No great value, most probable winners Souths, Manly, Bulldogs & Storm
    Value; Titans, Cowboys, Broncos
    At the Margin; Cowboys

    Betting Summary
    Australia to win more than 11.5 gold medals at London Olympics (2 Units)
    ACT Brumbies ($11) and Natal Sharks ($12) to win Super Rugby 1/8/12 (½ unit ea)
    Fremantle Dockers (AFL) ½ unit with 17.5 pts start @ $1.95
    Brisbane Lions (AFL) ½ unit with 24.5 pts start @$1.90
    Gold Coast Titans (NRL) ½ unit @ $2.60
    Parramatta (NRL) ½ unit @ $3.00
    Cowboys (NRL) ½ unit @ $2.45
    Bulls (Super Rugby) ½ unit @ $2.80

  2. Rookie Bookie
    May 27, 2012 at 5:31 am

    Super Rugby is amazing. Chiefs are back on top but finish against their 4 NZ compatriots. Sharks are 5 points behind Stormers and 3 behind Bulls but have the easier run home, with Bulls in round 17 and no Australian team is close to that standard, the Reds will likely sneak in. A couple of weeks ago I said it was grinding now it is fascinating.

  3. Rookie Bookie
    May 28, 2012 at 7:33 am

    In chronological order down, up, down, up, down, down. proper whores draws. The 2 ups were Titans @ $2.60 plus Brisbane Lions @ $1.90 therefore net loss was $1.50/6. Index declines by 25. Index today 492.2.

    The Brumbies narrow loss to Reds is not good. I am not certain why but I have Sharks @ $11 and Brumbies @ $12 to win Super Rugby (an error of transpostion??). No matter how I study the comp, the final composition will not be determined until round 18. There are too many critical match ups. Reds play Waratahs in round 18 and while NSW are going nowhere they could easily spoil. Each conference is opaque. Crusaders v Chiefs in round 17. In SA Stormers meet Bulls and so do Sharks. Bulls are ever so close to Stormers. History will believe Bulls play Crusaders possibly Chiefs at home in finals. I don’t think so.

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