Home > The EYE-BALL Herman O'HERMITAGE, The EYE-BALL Rookie Bookie, The EYE-BALL SportsZone > EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 18th – 21st May –

EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 18th – 21st May –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
18th – 21st May, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340
  • 16th May 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 433.3

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 11th -14th May.

GWS Giants (AFL) won at $4.15 plus Cowboys (NRL) at $1.65. Swans lost, Weagles lost. Therefore ($4.15 +1.65 minus stake (3) is an earn of 0.933 (93.3%). Gambling index increases to 433.3 with bet on Chelsea not yet settled. If Chelsea lose or you consider the bet is worthless, Index is 400.

On UEFA Champions League – Live on SBS 4.45am next Sunday from Allianz Stadium, Munich.

The odds on Chelsea should be substantially improved by Bayern Munich’ loss to Borussia Dortmund over the weekend. Keep that one quiet, last I looked odds still $2.65. Essentially final is played in Munich, so Bayern have home ground advantage. In history Bayern have won 4, and runner up 4 times, last appearance 2010 (Runners up to Internazionale (ITA) in Madrid 2-0) – Chelsea were runners up to Man U in 2008 in Moscow in a penalty shootout (6-5), their only appearance. The winner earns Euro 9mio and runner up Euro 5.6mio. I want more on Chelsea. That prize money indicates why their sport has such crazy player payments.

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Weekend 18th – 21st May. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 13

  • Hurricanes v Brumbies estimate market $2.05/$1.95 Actual $1.45/$2.65.
  • Highlanders v Bulls estimate market $2.20/$1.83 Actual $1.87/$1.87
  • Crusaders v Blues estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.20/$4.20
  • Reds v Lions estimate market $1.20/$6.00 Actual $1.07/$8.00
  • Cheetahs v Sharks estimate market $1.50/$3.00Actual $1.68/$2.10
  • Stormers v Waratahs estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.30/$3.30
  • Force v Rebels estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.87/$1.87

6 weeks before finals. Whips are cracking. I still feel Stormers are good things.

Best Bet:

Rebels (maybe Brumbies)

Value:

Brumbies,

At the Margin:

Nothing Brumbies with 5.5 is silly as is Cheetahs with 2.5

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AFL – Round – 8

  • Pies v Cats estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.70/$2.05
  • Power v Roos estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $2.70/$1.45
  • Hawks v Dockers estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.18/$4.75
  • Swans v Dees estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.09/$7.00
  • Bulldogs v Suns estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.15/$5.25
  • Bombers v Tigers estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.50/$2.55
  • Lions v Giants estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.15/$5.25
  • Blues v Crows estimate market $2.22/$1.80 Actual $1.23/$3.25
  • Weagles v Saints estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.38/$3.00

Best Bet:

Essendon

Value:

; Fremantle Dockers, GWS Giants, Adelaide Crows

At the Margin:

Giants with 33.5 start (6 and half goals)

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NRL – Round 11 (split round)

  • Tigers v Warriors – estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $1.85/$1.95
  • Cowboys v Panthers – estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.55/$2.45
  • Sea Eagles v Chooks estimate market $1.67/$2.50 Actual $1.48/$2.65
  • Saints v Rabbits estimate market $2.12/$1.90 Actual $1.85/$1.95
  • Bulldogs v Sharks estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.48/$2.65

SOO – Qld $1.50 NSW +5.5 $2.60 – My estimate $1.67/$2.50

Series My Estimate   Qld 3 Nil $4.00           Actual $3.75

Qld 2 – 1 $2.00           Actual $2.25

NSW 2-1 $5.25           Actual $3.25

 Best Bet:

Warriors

Value:

Panthers, Chooks

Not without a chance:

Sharks

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Tennis

Federer’s win over Berdych on Spanish blue clay is as immaterial as Nadal or Djoker losing in prelim finals to compatriots. For French Open it truly looks Djokovic v Nadal final. No interest

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UEFA Soccer

Euro Cup Hosts are Poland and Ukraine (Prices are Sports Tab to qualify for knockout rounds)

  • Pool A – Poland $1.85, Greece $2.50, Russia $1.40, Czech Rep. $2.05 (107%)
  • Pool B – Netherlands $1.45, Denmark $5, Germany $1.28, Portugal $2.10 (107%)
  • Pool C – Spain $1.10, Italy $1.60, Ireland $4.00, Croatia $2.65 (108%)
  • Pool D – Ukraine $2.15, Sweden $2.75, France $1.55, England $1.50 (107%)

Spain play Italy in Round 1. Germany play Portugal. France play England. Spain expected to win overall.

Quick History

1960       USSR                defeat Yugoslavia       2 – 1                 in France

1964        Spain               defeat USSR               2 – 1                 in Spain

1968        Italy                 defeat Yugoslavia       2 – 0                in Italy

1972        W. Germany   defeat Yugoslavia       3 – 0                in Belgium

1976        Czechoslav.    defeat W. Germany    2 – 2 (5-3)       in Yugoslavia

1980        W Germany    defeat  Belgium          2 –1                 in Italy

1984        France              defeat  Spain               2 – 0                in France

1988        Netherlands     defeat  USSR              2 – 0                in W. Germany

1992        Denmark           defeat Germany         2 – 0                 in Sweden

1996        Germany         defeat  Czech Rep      2 – 1                in England

2000        France             defeat  Italy                 2 – 1                in Belgium

2004        Greece             defeat  Portugal          1 – 0                in Portugal

2008        Spain               defeat  Germany         1 – 0                in Austria

There is considerable politics involved in Euro Cup. Very important is qualifying rules for individual players. I expect Russia to be in last four. I also believe Croatia while in the same pool as Spain and Italy will win through to knockouts. I am thinking to back Croatia to make 8 and save on Italy for a draw in 1st round. Lots of time to assess. England have never won. Another fine example of British arrogance.

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Betting Summary

  • Chelsea in UEFA Champions League @ $2.65 (1 unit) outstanding from 12/5/12
  • Further Chelsea in UEFA Champions League @ $2.65 (1 unit)
  • Warriors (NRL) 1 unit to defeat Tigers latest price $1.87
  • Giants (AFL) ½ unit head to head @ $4.90
  • Giants (AFL) 1 unit with start 35.5 @ $1.90
  • Brumbies (Super Rugby) ½ unit @ $2.65
  • Rebels (Super Rugby) 1 unit @ $1.87

This means 6 units @ risk weighted 200 on index.

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The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. League Leg End
    May 17, 2012 at 1:40 pm

    Yeah right you bloody wanker! You are meant to be impartial on the State of Origin series. You failed to acknowledge NSW are quoted @ $11 to win 3 luv. My logics go when NSW win in Melbourne next Wednesday there will only be 3 possibilities left. NSW 3 nil, NSW 2 -1 or QLD 2 – 1. Importantly you will have to accept 2’s on about NSW in Sydney. Therefore you lock in $2.25 about NSW winning each match, and if you choose you can you can lay off in the Lang Park match.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    May 18, 2012 at 7:32 pm

    OK when you line up the 2 backlines, NSW will struggle. That is what the betting is saying. Cronk, Thurston, Inglis and Slater. How many potential immortals wearing maroon, how many wearing blue. The recent history would also suggest Qld. If you believe NSW are in with a chance then shocking Qld in Melbourne is imperative. More than that what the Legend is saying makes sense. At 10 to 1 for three games laying off at Suncorp is clever gambling. I can only ask how often does it occur when any team leads 2 nil before the 3rd match. I will have to check the stats.

  3. May 18, 2012 at 8:26 pm

    Will post over the weekend on the SOO – but in the meantime for ticket sales the media are playing ball in selling the NSW chances – its about money as are all things …

    Your want to find value in finding a reason to back is commendable – every bookie in Australia is looking for NSW punters … it’s a sucker bet … the question is how do NSW find a way to beat QLD in Melbourne …

    Qld have two changes from last year, Lockyer and YowYeh out – Cronk and Tate in … Cronck has been a part of the last 2 SOO QLD wins – Tate has also been on baord in the early part of the 6-0 scoreline.

    NSW dumped Soward after his first series – how many is that, yet stuck with Pearce who is it 3 or 4 times a looser. Stuart is your problem – opinioniated, woeful track record at Cronulla and as Australian Coach. If NSW had any instinct for the SOO concept – they would go outside Australia looking for a coach – they need new thinking and an instinct that brings a mindset that differs to the mental anguish that 6-0 record brings …

    To be honest NSW are so far pout of the contest they don’t care whether it becomes 10-0 … they have put their ass’s in the air and said ‘we surrender’.

  4. Rookie Bookie
    May 20, 2012 at 8:04 am

    After Chelsea’s win I will post on SOO later today.

    Regarding the Fusball, I can hardly believe Chelsea got away win the 6 3 1 defensive line, they were so over marking Robben. Drogba had no support in attack whatsoever. any way It is generally accepted that dour defence is bad for the game, but in a couple of years time who will remember, the stats say Chelsea won. The rest is history

    For the weekend I have today riding to nothing, Giants in AFL and Rebels in Super Rugby. Friday nights NRL has me thinking deeply, Wests Tigers wanted that match so badly, down 10 0 at half time. They dug really deep, and Warriors could not handle the kicking game forced into error. Why can’t the Tigers sustain that style of football throughout the season. The key results this weekend are quite amazing. Port Adelaide finally played a complete game Saturday, and the leg injury to Tariq Sims is both bad for NSW and Cowboys.

    Aside from Rebels and Giants, I am very interested to watch Manly Easts, where Manly will really miss their 4, The Stewart brothers, The Fuhrer, and the judiciary specialist, Tony Williams, while Easts are without Pearce. In the other NRL game Saints are short in the forwards but Souths without Inglis will be lacking attackiing potency. We will have to see how good Adam Reynolds the half is supported by Nathan Merritt, Andrew Everingham and Dylan Farrell. I will probably have a 5’er on Farrell to score first try. I expect a quiet one from John Sutton. I am not much of a fan of Sutton, he is too lazy and too full of himself

  5. big punter
    May 20, 2012 at 6:22 pm

    well well lost on warriorsbut just recovered most on a great rebels win

  6. Rookie Bookie
    May 21, 2012 at 6:53 am

    Giants were woeful. Next week they play Bombers at Skoda Stadium, a revamped Sydney Showground at Homebush. The Rebels win by a point is in the same stuff as The Warriors losing by 2 points or Chelsea’s win in penalty shootout. Far too close for comfort. Crows recent run would have been much more enjoyable to be riding. In NRL it is very hard to adjust for players rested for SOO. Manly;s win and West’s show you likely finalists are the same mix as last year. Melbourne, Manly, Broncos and Wests/Warriors. Cowboys should feature in the mix.

    No matter which way you look at it SOO is just tribal. On paper Qld must win. For the sake of the concept NSW must win. With Gallen’s thigh injury and Sims busted leg I am hearing Watmough has declined being drafted in as reserve. Ricky Stuart has made clear he doesnt want Watmough or Idris. Therefore Watmough gave a bit extra yesterday, and now has a dummy spit. What chance has NSW got? It couldn’t be scripted.

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