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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 11th – 14th May –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
11th – 14th May, 2012

Click here – to read previous “Rookie-Bookie” Posts:

This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00
  • 9th May 2012  –  Value of GI = (+) 340

25th Apr Update: – A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

Update from last weekend – 4th -7th May.

Storm all up Manly is 1.2 x 1.17 (2 times) $2.804 plus $1.70 for Richmond Tigers is a return of 50.089% on outlay. Gambling index is higher by 50-09.

Other Thoughts:

In the phone call between Snoopy and myself last Saturday morning about betting much was lost in translation. I was not that keen on Manly, thought they would win but not keen on the odds on offer. I was very keen on Melbourne Demons with the 55.5 start. Starts are a very strange thing.  [I will post the Nathaniel story, but it requires a little editing right now].

West Coast defeated Demons by 10 weekend before last, this weekend West Coast trailed the Roos in 1st qtr. West Coast are serious premiership contenders, but right now have 3 critical injuries and just want to win as easy as they might. Different example same story, Manly in NRL had a very bruising encounter against Bulldogs then faced a Canberra team coming off a woeful hiding by Sharks, but Manly face Broncos next. All of this has many elements, bruises and soft muscle issues, more serious injury, and the necessity to focus on those tough matches. The coach can say one week at a time, but… Manly were very lucky to escape with the win. On that performance, they are not serious, but now for Broncos. Broncos had an honest game against an impressive Warriors. Will Warriors reserve the same intensity against Sydney City Roosters? Manly want that Broncos scalp and it will be an illuminating encounter. The match is a great contest.

I have mentioned briefly before momentum. Often in footy tipping comps, some just go on winners. My momentum is similar but enhanced by looking forward as well. In Super Rugby the Reds season was on the line against Crusaders in Christchurch. They are rightfully favoured to win the Australian Conference again this year, however will not get the final at home. Therefore winning away has become somewhat imperative. Reds scored the only try but lost the match on penalties. It was a low scoring dour defence match. The Crusaders were silly odds on, just mad.

Every week retaining your capital, and having some fun is the essence. The bookies want to attract wild gambling, and for the gambler well what are they really trying to do. For me it is just have fun. Gambling is an industry and employs all types of tricks that include false experts. Tipsters achieve so little.

In the NRL I tipped 6 out of 8. What I found fun was my assessment of Tigers Titans to be more accurate than Sports betting agencies. Most were terribly wrong about Manly Canberra, (I was only slightly more accurate) and the money for Melbourne Storm v Penrith was so spot on. In Super Rugby I was 6 from 7. I am happy about the Reds result. Waratahs are not serious, again. In the AFL I was 8 from 8. Accidently I omitted a tip for Swans Crows. I said at $4 Crows were value.

Very importantly I try to have my head rule my heart. I don’t like the Swans, one little bit. I admire Adam Goodes the player. I love South Sydney. Snoopy was saying I use reverse psychology regarding Souths. Partly true. I will not bet against Souths. I try to be objective. Souths can’t play an 80 minute game. Broncos ran them down and Cowboys went close. Until Maguire can get consistency Souths are just a team. My team.

All of this is meant to be condensed in the Gambling Index, a measure of success. I am going well. I bet away from the gambling index  at times (side bets) and my biggest result was on the Golden Slipper. My football betting has not been that great. Last year by writing this column I went really well. It focuses on reality rather than media hub-bub. My best result last year was Manly in NRL all up the Cats in AFL or (just as good) Australia in Tri Nations Rugby. Doesn’t matter. Just fun. One thing for certain saying I have 79.67% accuracy is totally meaningless. It does not measure the quality of selections. Just taking home teams would not be that different.

________________________________________

Weekend 7th – 11th May. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 12

  • Blues v Lions estimate market $1.95/$2.05Actual $1.20/$4.20.
  • Waratahs v Bulls estimate market $2.20/$1.83Actual $1.85/$1.90
  • Highlanders v Hurricanes estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.60/$2.25
  • Rebels v Crusaders estimate market $2.42/$1.70 Actual $5.75/$1.12
  • Sharks v Force estimate market $1.50/$3.00Actual $1.14/$5.25
  • Stormers v Cheetahs estimate market $1.33/$4 Actual $1.20/$4.20
  • Reds v Chiefs estimate market $2.10/$1.91 Actual $2/$1.77

Best Bet:

No sure thing.

Value:

Transvaal Lions, Pretoria Bulls, Wellington Hurricanes

At the Margin:

Rebels plus 13.5 points, Cheetahs plus 10.5

________________________________________

AFL – Round – 7

  • Dees v Hawks estimate market $4.00/$1.33 Actual $13.00/$1.02
  • Crows v Cats estimate market $2.120/$1.90 Actual $2.20/$1.65
  • Giants v Suns estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $3.15/$1.36
  • Tigers v Swans estimate market $2.50/$1.60 Actual $1.65/$2.20
  • Bombers v Weagles estimate market $2.33/$1.75 Actual $1.70/$2.15
  • Lions v Pies estimate market $11/$1.10 Actual $5.50/$1.14
  • Roos v Bulldogs estimate market $1.75/$2.33 Actual $1.38/$3.00
  • Dockers v Port estimate market $1.60/$2.50 Actual $1.12/$6.00
  • Saints v Blues estimate market $2.42/$1.70Actual $3.85/$1.25

Best Bet:

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Value:

Sydney Swans, Weagles, Crows

At the Margin:

________________________________________

NRL – Round 10

  • Broncos v Sea Eagles – estimate market $1.98/$2.02 Actual $1.80/$2.05
  • Doggies v Titans – estimate market $1.60/$2.50 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • Warriors v Roosters estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.40/$3.00
  • Knights v Cowboys estimate market $5/$1.25 Actual $2.10/$1.75
  • Raiders v Eels estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.48/$2.70
  • Sharkies v Storm estimate market $3.00/$1.50Actual $3.75/$1.28
  • Panthers v Dragons estimate market $3.00/$1.50 Actual $3.75/$1.28

 Best Bet:

Cowboys

Value:

Eels

Not without a chance:

Penrith

 ________________________________________

Tennis

Nothing This Week

________________________________________

UEFA Soccer

The European Champions League Final is still 2 weeks away (4.45am live on SBS – 20/5/2012). Chelsea have now won the FA cup. Their confidence is sky high. Do they have the grit and the flair.  British soccer is not based on attack but defence. This is also true of Germany in the past decade. That said the world’s best play in Champions league, and some young South American or African kid will stamp their name on the final, and quite possibly be traded in a couple of years for mega bucks. This is professional sport. The $2.65 will do me.

UEFA Euro Cup starts 9/6/2012. Spain are rightful favourites, but pools are always fun. Will study for next week. First thoughts the pool containing both Spain and Italy is the pool of death. Pool A and D look more interesting.

________________________________________

Betting Summary

  • Chelsea in UEFA Champions League @ $2.65 (1 unit)
  • Greater Western Sydney Giants in AFL @ 3.15 (1 unit)
  • North Qld Cowboys in NRL @ $1.75 (1 unit)
  • West Coast Eagles in AFL @ $2.15 (½ unit)
  • Sydney Swans in AFL @ $2.20 (½ unit)

________________________________________

The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    May 13, 2012 at 8:34 am

    Gambling Index
    Giants won at $4.15 plus Cowboys at $1.65. Swans lost, Weagles lost. Therefore ($4.15 +1.65 minus stake (3) is a return of 0.933 (93.3%). Gambling index increases to 433.3 with bet on Chelsea not yet settled. If Chelsea lose or you consider the bet is worthless, Index is 400.

    Giants blew in betting since the post on Wednesday, Cowboys shortened, Swans shortened ($2) and Weagles blew ($2.35). The weight of money is not a fair indicator.

    I enjoyed the Giants game immensely. I can’t fathom why they were considered much more than an even money bet. They are simply a team of young tryers. As for Knights against Cowboys, Wayne Bennett must be feeling about it today.

    Swans and Weagles have been considered false favourites most of the year, and the moment I get on them they both play like that . And the Crows thrashed Geelong. The Rebels win over Bulls is very illuminating. I will be watching the Chiefs and Reds later today. As an Aussie naturally I want to see the Reds win

  2. Cowboy
    May 13, 2012 at 9:58 am

    Great tipping Rookie – the Cowboys as an NRL standout was good enough for me. But the $4+ on the Giants is maybe worth becoming interested in … keep up the good work.

  3. Rookie Bookie
    May 13, 2012 at 12:46 pm

    I need to correct myself on Rebels beating Bulls, they beat Crusaders.

    In Super Rugby I went down on Lions, however were good for Bulls, good for Hurricanes, good for Rebels and Cheetahs at the margin. It only makes me ponder more how Swans were woeful in the first quarter and could not get back into the match, and Weagles have a few injuries, and are simply not the same team. My issues with the Swans remain. I support any team playing the Swans.

    In the Super Rugby I have 5 from 6, in the AFL I have 3 from 6, in NRL I have 2 from 3, (again I did not enter selection for Warriors v Chooks although my assessment made that clear).

  4. big punter
    May 13, 2012 at 6:21 pm

    thanks 0ne bet cowboys hope you reveiw league grand final soon

  5. Rookie Bookie
    May 16, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    On the Grand Final there are at least six serious contenders. I assess Storm $5, Manly $5.25, Warriors $6, Cowboys $6.50 Canterbury $7 and Sharkies at $8. That means I have Souths, Saints & Easts virtually riding to nothing. Those odds quoted make up 98%. The odds on Melbourne and Manly won’t really go away. Melbourne are quoted at $3.75 way under. If you were to back Sharks now at $15 you need to consider how so much is based arounf Carney and Gallen. This weekend we see them against a virtual full strength Bulldogs without those two.

    The Eels with 1 win from 10 must now win 12 from 14 to qualify. Panthers and Titans must win 10 from 14 to be in contention. I will let you consider Knights and Raiders. I still expect Knights and Panthers to string together a good series of wins. The Raiders also have depth that those inner city clubs like Saints, Souths, Easts and Tigers could only dream about.

    I will not start seriously considering finals until about round 20.

    In next weeks post I will attempt to explain the Super Rugby early bets on finals. Right now in Tri nations I rate NZ $1.75, SA and Australia $3.25. Things will change dramatically.

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