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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview – 4th – 7th May –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
4th – 7th May, 2012
This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …
  • 2nd May 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 290.00

25th Apr Update: -A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

State of Origin – (SOO) will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

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Weekend 4th – 7th May. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby – Round 11

  • Hurricanes v Blues estimate market $1.70/$2.42Actual $1.37/$2.30
  • Rebels v Bulls estimate market $2.50/$1.67Actual $4.25/$1.20
  • Chiefs v Lions estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.05/$5.50
  • Brumbies v Waratahs estimate market $2.10/$1.91Actual $1.85/$1.90
  • Sharks v Highlanders estimate market $2.12/$1.90Actual $1.50/$2.50
  • Cheetahs v Force estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.35/$3
  • Crusaders v Reds estimate market $1.70/$2.42 Actual $1.15/$5

The scuttlebutt regarding both Genia going to Force, and MacKenzie replacing Deans do not help. ARU have simply got to stop this rot. Ewan Mackenzie did not get results with Waratahs, but has with Reds, and he states it tends to be a different political landscape. Do the Wallabies get the picture? Will he be allowed to select according to form rather than mates of mates? What changed Genia’s mind?

Best Bet:

No best bet $1.05 about Chiefs is evil, Cheetahs are too short.

Some Value:

Several visiting teams, Wellington v Auckland is a local derby, so is Brumbies v Waratahs, Last years final, Crusaders v Reds, Reds should not be $5. Taking starts in Union is tough, Reds +12.5 mmmm, Look at start with Highlanders too. That is an even money match, with home ground advantage to Sharks.

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AFL – Round – 6

  • Western Bulldogs v Pies estimate market $2.42/$1.70 Actual $6.25/$1.12
  • Bombers v Lions estimate market $1.50/$3.00 Actual $1.16/$5.25
  • Cats v Demons estimate market $1.5/$3.00Actual $1.03/$13
  • Suns v Freo estimate market $6.00/$1.20 Actual $$7/1.10
  • Saints v Hawks estimate market $2.40/$1.71 Actual $3.50/$1.30
  • Swans v Crows estimate market $1.83/$2.20 Actual $1.25/$4.00
  • Blues v Giants estimate market $1.33/$4 Actual $ no market
  • Power v Tigers estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.15/$1.70
  • Eagles v Roos estimate market $1.85/$2.17Actual $1.22/$4.35

Best Bet:

Tigers, Bombers, Freo

Value:

Crows, North

At the Margin:

Demons +55.5

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NRL – Round 9

  • Eels v Doggies – estimate market $2.90/$1.52 Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Cowboys v Dragons – estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.70/$2.20
  • Warriors v Broncos estimate market $2.42/$1.70 Actual $2.25/$1.67
  • Titans v Tigers estimate market $2.50/$1.67 Actual $3.40/$1.33
  • Panthers v Storm estimate market $6.00/$1.20 Actual $5.25/$1.17
  • Manly v Raiders estimate market $1.40/$3.50Actual $1.20/$4.75
  • Chookies v Knights estimate market $1.80/$2.25Actual $1.60/$2.40
  • Rabbits v Sharks v estimate market $2.42/$1.70Actual $1.85/$1.95

Best Bet:

Melbourne but at $1.17, Penrith are really collapsing again, on their day ???.

So many possibilities, Mason gets to run at the Chooks, Manly rather unpredictable maybe Glenn Stewart wants to change that. Warriors at home? Cowboys v Dragons is 3rd place on the line. Can Parra finish 80 minutes, Fui Fui is back. This time last year Parra lead by 3 tries after 20 minutes and lost by 20 points

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Tennis

Nothing This Week

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Champions League Soccer

Nothing This Week

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Betting Summary

Will post something by 4pm Friday, Rugby and NRL are both very, very tough. That means potential. You can bank on Richmond Tigers. Their opponents Port Power can’t sustain the intensity of a match but do brilliant stuff with the ball in hand. Richmond will win the contest for ball.

Till Friday …

UPDATE Sat 9:00am –

Apologies – I was detained by my local Club when they refused to payout a jackpot – I caused a ruckus and they had me arrested – bastards – more on this later … anyway the bail hearing freed me this morning and my first thought was to my loyal footy followers.

To the Weekends footy  – a tough weekend –

  • 2 unit Storm all up Manly (NRL)ie. $2 x $1.17 v $1.20 = $2.37
  • 1 unit Richmond at the margin (AFL) ie. $1.90

Union is just so tough this weekend – I think the Reds can cause an upset against the Crusaders even though I’ve tipped the Crusaders.  I follow the Rabbits and I think they are a chance against the Sharkies who have been good to me.   I’ve tipped the Sharkies with some belief in the system that whenever I tip the Rabbits they lose – a reverse logic type scenario – please don’t bet on the Sharkies on this logic.

Anyway going to work off some frustrations on a bag – Nathaniel has it coming.

Happy punting – bet on me in the rematch.

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The Rookie Bookie …

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