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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview -27th Apr – 30th Apr –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend Footy preview –
April 27 to April 30, 2012
This page presents Rookie Bookie’s opinions covering all things ‘Aussie Football’ across the 2012 season including AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index* – (GI) to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI)– is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 04th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67
  • 25th Apr 2012 –  Value of GI = (+) 293.67 – no activity last week …

25th Apr Update: -A couple of things –  I changed the Gambling Index after Cowboy questioned me on units. I reverted from base 100 to base 0. Now it is simply +ve or -ve. Hence base is 0. Therefore – 4/4/12 is +116.67, 11/4/12 is 393.67 (currently correct) as is 18/4/12, and this week unchanged (last week no bets). This week I outlay 100 for possible ?

SOO will be unique posts regarding gossip and possible selections, Snoopy writes for Queensland, League Leg End writes for NSW, Rookie Bookie is impartial.   A post on Olympics was posted as Comment on previous Weeks Preview – [ – linked here – see comment #2]

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Weekend 27th – 30th April. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby

  • Auckland Blues v Queensland Reds estimate market $2.12/$1.90Actual $2.85/$1.40
  • Lions v ACT Brumbies estimate market $2.65/$1.60Actual $2.05/$1.70
  • Chiefs v Hurricanes estimate market $1.90/$2.12 Actual $1.38/$2.90
  • Western Force v Stormers estimate market $6/$1.20Actual $2.65/$1.45
  • Cheetahs v Highlanders estimate market $3.50/$1.40Actual $1.75/$2.00
  • Waratahs v Crusaders estimate market $$5/$1.25 Actual $3/$1.36

The 18 match qualifiers for 3 weeks of finals is getting tedious. For supporters and players. The players are getting several weeks of byes but for supporters of dud teams there is only hope. Auckland can make the finals, in a very tough conference. 3 NZ conference teams will likely feature. Auckland don’t look like it at all, competing against Chiefs, Crusaders, Wellington and Highlanders. Reds are favoured to be the only Australian conference team to make semis. That is no sure thing, Brumbies and Waratahs believe they are still in this.

Best Bet:

Highlanders, Stormers

Some Value:

Hurricanes

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AFL

  • Pies v Bombers played Anzac Day
  • Dockers v Blues estimate market $2.12/$1.90 Actual $2.10/$1.75
  • GWS v Bulldogs estimate market $4/$1.33Actual $11/$1.04
  • Roos v Suns estimate market $1.10/$11 Actual $1.01/$17
  • Demons v Saints estimate market $4.50/$1.28 Actual $7/$1.10
  • Lions v Cats estimate market $4/$1.33 Actual $4/1.25
  • Hawks v Swans estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.33/$3.35
  • Tigers v Weagles estimate market $4/$1.44 Actual $3.25/1.35
  • Adelaide v Port Adelaide estimate market $1.70/$2.42Actual $1.75/$2.45

Best Bet:

Hawks and Weagles

Crazy Bet:

Demons, GWS are terribly underrated but are not expected to win a match this year

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NRL

  • St George Dragons v Sydney Roosters – played Anzac Day
  • Melbourne Storm v NZ Warriors – played Anzac Day
  • Bulldogs v Sea Eagles estimate market $2.42/$1.70 Actual $2.10/$1.75
  • Brisbane Broncos v Gold Coast Titans estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.25/$4.10
  • NQ Cowboys v Rabbitohs estimate market $1.70/$2.42 Actual $1.88/$1.95
  • Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks estimate market $3.50/$1.40 – Actual $2/$1.85
  • Eels [(plus 5.5) too Skinny] v Tigers estimate market $2.25/$1.80 – Actual $2.75/$1.47
  • Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers v estimate market $2.42/$1.70 – Actual $1.41/$3

The Comp is now 29% complete. After this round we are 1/3rd complete and we are now close to the effects of State Of Origin with byes and players backing up.

Griffin at Broncos has stated he will have no hesitation resting players again to maintain freshness. That makes Storm rather good things for minor premiership, however at this stage last year Saints look the goods and limped into the semi finals.

League is so strange in that should Melbourne loose say Hoffman and one more, their rotation could look quite weak. I believe Hoffman will be selected in SOO. Doggies are going well under Hasler, and not attracting attention. Last year Warriors had a slow start but still looked good in patches, and finished at the edge of top 4. This year they will be in bottom of top 8 at best.

Last night’s match against Melbourne in Melbourne is getting time to really stand up. Note how down 6 nil and attacking the fullback drew the defence and Nielson scored. Who can stop them.

Parramatta are really starting to turn things around, but need to win a couple on end. Meeting an equally fired up Wests this weekend is tough. What a great match. Wests will win. Take the start to Parramatta. Cronulla are finals bound, but there is no real value in that. This premiership is too packed in the middle.

Without doubt the disappointment of the season is Knights. (Eels aside). When there forwards do the work in the centre of the paddock, the gifts of Uate and Boyd should flourish. Sadly they are now hoping Willie Mason will sort things out. Penrith could also grow another leg but their injuries are mounting.

Best Bet:

Sharks

Tough Weekend.  Souths pricing is rubbish.  So is Knights.  Still doesn’t induce me, too fishy. Gold Coast are a chance, and it is TV match (how ridiculous). Parra will play well – they were right in the contest against Cronulla. Venom in Doggies and Manly will be explosive.

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Tennis

There is a market posted on how many slams Djokovic might win in 2012.  Could he win the Grand Slam, or just settle for Wimbledon and US Open, or only win one. The clay season is now upon us. The French open is a couple of weeks away.

This year Wimbledon is being scheduled 3 weeks prior to the Olympics tennis where both are being contested at Wimbledon. The rules for Olympic inclusion are hard to work through. Only those who play Davis Cup or Fed Cup 2 out of 4 years can be included and so on. This means Djokovic is actually chasing a Golden Slam.

In the French Open I want to see someone emerge. I am just scouring for information.

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Champions League Soccer

Bayern Munich will be favoured. Chelsea are on a fairy tale. There are only 2 probabilities. I will be looking for value through Chelsea. I want silly pricing, better than $2.50.ation.

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Betting Summary

  • 1 unit Highlanders all up Stomers ie $2 x $1.45 = $2.90
  • ½ unit Hurricanes (Rugby) @ $2.90 all up Sharks (NRL) @ $1.85
  • ½ unit Demons (AFL) @ $7 all up Sharks (NRL) @ $1.85
  • ½ unit Port Adelaide (AFL) @ $2.45 all up Sharks (NRL) @ $1.85
  • ½ unit Hawthorne (AFL) @ $1.33 all up Weagles (AFL) @ $1.35 all up Sharks (NRL) @ $1.85

Looking for something on Parra, despite Tigers having that killer instinct right now.

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The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. April 29, 2012 at 5:47 pm

    Great call on the Sharks Rookie Bookie … but your all up on Port Adelaide – after you tipped Adelaide into the Sharks had me confused.

    I just took the Sharkies … thanks.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    April 29, 2012 at 10:32 pm

    Collect on Highlanders all up Stormers. Got a great run for my money on Demons (AFL) and really upset by Hawthorne (AFL). Sydney Swans could not win a signet raffle, but just keep on doing it. West Coast and Sydney are due for really big holes. I knew last Thursday to stand out Sharkies (NRL) at evens. I did but on gambling index I lose 10c in the grand order of things. Ned Kelly said “such is life”. But posting my tips mid week I try. I am doing OK. Port Adelaide were a chance. Demons were 6 to 1. I will get up something real special real soon.

    Onya

  3. Cowboy
    April 29, 2012 at 11:00 pm

    I am a professinal punter, markets mainly but cards, horses, and sport are part of the picture as well. I learnt a long time ago to trust yourself. Most punt for the rush and therefore bet all day in as many outlets as possible, and then whether winning or losing at the end of the day, they seek to bet again either to recoup losses or turn a good day into a monster day.

    Bookies love you to death. You can’t beat them and they love for you to try. Just a word of wisdom Rookie Bookie if I may, I follow your standouts, but all that other crap is for the ‘feel-good’, or ‘juice’ you want as you’re watching a game.

    You either punt to ‘win’, or you punt to enjoy the game … either way you’re a ‘loser’ … but if you have disipline and bet without the emotion then you can win – pick your standout three bets – if the first two win – go home – if they lose your third bet is a chance to get even. Whatever happens then is how you go home.

    I won on your Sharkies and agreed they were over the odds … you pick the value and the team and I’ll follow your standouts all day … might even ‘sling’ you if you can find me …

    Cowboy.

  4. Rookie Bookie
    April 29, 2012 at 11:19 pm

    Super Rugby 6 out of six.
    AFL seven out of nine.
    NRL five out of seven so far,

    it is not about picking winners, it is about picking winners in tough match ups. Anyone can pick the other team to GWS, Gold Coast Suns, Gold Coast Titans, Melbourne Demons or Parramatta. It is about how close the match up will end up.

  5. Cowboy
    April 29, 2012 at 11:26 pm

    My point exactly – but where was the value and the ‘over the odds’ wager … join a tipping competition or have a footytab ‘pick the winners’ and ‘margins’ – but having juice in all the games to give you a reason to watch them is the way Sports Bookies make the big bucks –

  6. big punter
    April 30, 2012 at 9:20 am

    well done rookie my only bet was on sharks

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