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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Weekend Footy preview -19th Apr – 21st Apr –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Weekend preview – April 19 to April 21, 2012
This is Rookie Bookie’s page covering all things ‘Aussie Footy’ across the 2012 season.  It covers the AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  As at the beginning of April 2012 I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling Index – (GI) – is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay – i.e. Base = 100.00 as at 30th Mar 2012 – and the weekends wagering performance either adds or subtracts from that index.   A cumulative and weekly updated value of the GI is presented below.

  • 4th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 216.67
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 393.67
  • 18th Apr 2012 – Value of GI = (+) 293.67

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Weekend 19th – 21st April. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby

  • Otago Highlanders v Auckland Blues estimate market $1.80/$2.22 Actual $1.60/$2.25
  • Queensland Reds v Capetown Stormers estimate market $2.43/$1.70Actual $2/$1.75
  • Wellington Hurricanes v Canterbury Crusaders estimate market $2.67/$1.60Actual $2.80/$1.40
  • NSW Waratahs v Melbourne Rebels estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.12/$5.75
  • Natal Sharks v Waikato Chiefs  estimate market $2.43/$1.70 Actual $1.70/$2.05
  • Pretoria Bulls v ACT Brumbies estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.10/$6.25

Best Bet: No real sure thing Waratahs but silly price.

Value: Stormers, Chiefs & Brumbies (only at that outrageous price)

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AFL

  • St Kilda v Fremantle Dockers estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.40/$2.90
  • Carlton Blues v Essendon Bombers estimate market $1.60/$2.67Actual $1.15/$5.50
  • Collingwood Magpies v Port Adelaide Power estimate market $1.60/$2.67Actual $1.07/$8
  • Adelaide Crows v Western Sydney Giants estimate market $1.20/$6Actual no market – Crows by 100 or more $2.20, Crows by 80 to 99 $5.50 Crows by up to 79 $2.20
  • West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn Hawks estimate market $1.98/$2.02Actual $1.70/$2.05
  • Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.50/$2.55
  • Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers estimate market $1.60/$2.67Actual $1.16/$5.50
  • Sydney Swans v North Melbourne Kangaroos estimate market $1.75/$2.33Actual $1.65/$2.20
  • Melbourne Demons v Western Bulldogs estimate market $2.80/$1.55Actual $2.90/$1.40

Best Bet: No great bet

Possible: North Melbourne (mainly on loss of Adam Goodes), West Coast

Other Thoughts: will find out more on Bombers tomorrow, Collingwood are not going well but Power lapse too often.

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NRL

Anzac Test

Australia my estimate $1.67/ NZ $2.50 Actual $1.40/$3

International Rugby League is a joke. Of course there are kids who want to represent their country, and their families are as proud as punch watching them. NZ want to beat Australia at anything and everything. But Australia should win, and no amount of NRL marketing will turn this match into the massive drawcard of SOO. In the not to distant future NZ could well be included in a re formatted SOO. The Qld supremacy has started to undermine that contest, NSW is sick and tired of losing and starting to not watch. Basically a good training gallop for Qld SOO side. NZ will ooze flair and hopefully tries. Australia oozes talent. NZ is slowly bridging the gap, but really best to just watch. Australia are definitely no value.

City v Country.

This appeals to only NSW as it is a state trial. Country should win, but it is really just a selection trial for NSW. When do you take trials that seriously? Buderus doesn’t want to play. The betting is that Carney and Pearce will be NSW halves for the SOO series, whereas Brett Kenny has come up with the novel idea of Carney at half and Maloney at 5/8. Ricky Stuart has floated the idea of Jarrod Hayne to 5/8. That could mean Carney off the bench as a utility.

In the forwards and centres there are many great contests for state selection. The Country forwards do look superior, and more likely to buckle the opposition defence. There is a mood that NSW will stick with the same team despite what occurs in first SOO so that concept puts extra pressure on the younger players to perform in this match. I rate Country $1.90 City $2.11 Actual market $1.55/2.50. Still a match to watch.

On Anzac Day I would probably think Easts over St George but that is too far away.

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A League

Maybe one of the major considerations in this match is that the A League is fighting for survival. Could this weekend’s premiership be the last in this format. In the six FFA Cups to date Newcastle have won 1, Sydney FC 2, Melbourne Victory 2 and Brisbane Roar 1. No team has won successive years. Brisbane Roar is attempting to do so. Last year the Roar’s win started a remarkable winning run for home teams at Suncorp.

I rate Roar at $1.80 and Glory at $2.22. Sportstab includes in their betting a 90 minute draw. They have the Roar @ $1.72. This totally confuses me. A result will be determined using extra time and penalty shootout if necessary. I tend to follow momentum. Perth Glory will have high confidence after their shock win against Central Coast and Brisbane’s controversial loss on Tuesday to Asian Champions League opponent at Suncorp doesn’t augur well. A 90 minute draw could go either way, with the team scoring last before the 90 minute mark, having momentum. I feel a penalty shootout would favour Perth.

I will be watching rather than gambling. I think lay the Roar at $1.72

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Betting Summary

No official bets

I will have a couple of little bets throughout weekend but no easy money to be had. Lacking confidence after Geelong last Sunday.

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The Rookie Bookie …

 

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  1. April 19, 2012 at 3:55 pm

    Hi Rookie Bookie –

    Read with interest your slant on the NSW SOO problems – the CITY v COUNTRY match is a joke in QLD – what comes from it but more injuries and ‘no’ indication on any player that is not already in the ‘nightmare’ zone when it comes to staring down the QLD SOO team.

    The NSW Forwards are the same bunch or tried and failed – the backline are much the same – as for Hayne at 5/8 – he was only ever a success at SOO level when he played wing – his positional defence at fullback is highly suspect – at 5/8 he has no command of the players around him – he is an individual player who exceeds in broken play. To get that the NSW forwards would have to dominate – something they cannot do on any consistent level.

    If they play Pierce at half-back NSW selectors have learnt nothing – Wallace is far an above the form NSW half-back of the comp this season – no matter how one looks at the team matchups – Ricky Stuart will be another loser coach at the end of the series.

    The Sandow demotion was expected – behind the Rabbitohs pack he had space – behind the Parramatta whimps he’s a pig on a spit …

    The Anzac Test – depends on who shows up – the Kiwis were woeful in the World Cup – but back in Australian conditions- and reputations at stake and an Australian team in a one-off test the Kiwis have a chance if they can stay in touch early. They have to contain Smith at the ruck, Cronk and Slater in their pet plays – and line up in defence.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    April 23, 2012 at 8:27 am

    On March 28 I posted a comment on Snoop Poop’s post that said;
    I have been wandering through the Olympics betting. I was thinking Australia 11 gold medals, maybe 35 medals total. No odds yet posted. England (host nation) will take many of our areas of expertise ie cycling. China will threaten USA big time too.

    Now I say; Though I expect England as host to top Australia’s medal tally Australia will still top England in the next Commonwealth Games. Such is the difference in competition standard, and sports included. At Commonwealth Games we don’t get real competition in the swimming pool, it is possible to go Gold Silver Bronze to Australia in a swimming event.

    The AOC has now said they expect our London haul to be 9 to 17. Before Sydney Olympics we only ever considered gold, not total medals. The AOC expects maybe 44 medals in total at London.

    TAB Sportsbet has now posted;
    6 or less gold $14.00
    7 to 9 gold $ 4.25
    10 to 12 gold $ 2.60
    13 to 15 gold $ 3.00
    16 to 18 gold $ 5.75
    19 to 21 gold $19.00
    22 or more gold $41.00

    Line betting 11.5 goals $1.87

    On April 15, 2012 the Sun Herald predicted 17 gold made up;
    Athletics 1 Sally Pearson
    Swimming 5 James Magnussen 50m & 100m free, Stephanie Rice 200m individual medley, Mens 4 x 100m relay, Womens 4 x 200m relay.
    Cycling 4, Men’s team Sprint, Men’s Points Race, Men’s Omnium, Women’s keirin
    Sailing 3 470 class, Laser class, and 49er class`
    Rowing 2 Drew Ginn & Men’s Coxless fours
    Hockey 1 Kookaburras
    Diving 1 Matthew Mitcham

    That is all drivel and based on current rankings. Don’t be surprised if Magnussen’s world records are eclipsed in the USA team trials yet to be held. Of course I would love to see Australia pick up a gold or 3 in sailing, but the competition is so intense and favours the locals who know the winds and train on the course. Our cycling does include Cadel Evans. On the basis of the above I now say, half that and add three for possibles in Equestrian, BMX, Triatholon, Gymnastics, Shooting and a couple more. That is about 12. Sally Pearson is unbackable but that is no guarantee.

  1. July 5, 2012 at 12:58 pm
  2. July 17, 2012 at 4:14 pm
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