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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – 13th Apr – 16th Apr – Weekend preview –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
13th Apr – 16th Apr – Weekend preview –
This is my page covering all things ‘Aussie Footy’ across the 2012 season.  It covers the AFL, League, Union and other sports mediums.  I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index to help followers of the selections offered – further explained here:

*The Gambling/Betting Index is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay.

  • 4th Apr 2012 – Value of Gambling Index = Positive 216.67 (base 0.0 – 30/3/2012)
  • 11th Apr 2012 – Value of Gambling Index = Positive 393.67 (base 0.0 – 30/3/2012)

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Weekend 13th – 16th April. [Fri – Mon].

Super Rugby

  • Auckland Blues v Natal Sharks estimate market $3/$1.50 Actual n/a
  • Western Force v NSW Waratahs estimate market $2.67/$1.60 Actual n/a
  • Canterbury Crusaders v Capetown Stormers estimate market $2.15/$1.87 Actual n/a
  • ACT Brumbies v Melbourne Rebels estimate market $1.60/$2.67 Actual n/a
  • Free State Cheetahs v Waikato Chiefs estimate market $3/$1.50 Actual n/a
  • Transvaal Lions v Pretoria Bulls estimate market $3.50/$1.40 Actual n/a

Best Bet

Simply no sure thing.  Auckland are now reduced to nuisance value.  Sharks are about the same. Mathematically every team still has a chance. Reality is different. Crusaders and Stormers match has so much bearing on the finals make up.  Waratahs must win. The grind of the season has taken a toll. Chiefs should win but not good value. Brumbies need to maintain momentum, Rebels play mongrel game based around O’Connor brilliance. Last week Auckland were stunned by the aggression and lack of penalties against the Rebels. Their defence was caught waiting for advantage or penalty to be ruled.

Value

Simply none

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AFL

  • Carlton Blues v Collingwood Magpies estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $1.75/$2.05
  • Richmond Tigers v Melbourne Demons estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.25/$3.85
  • Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.70/$1.45
  • Fremantle Dockers v Brisbane Lions estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.08/$7.50
  • Gold Coast Suns v Essendon Bombers estimate market $11/$1.10 Actual $10/$1.04
  • Western Bulldogs v St Kilda estimate market $2.15/$1.87 Actual $2.70/$1.45
  • Western Sydney Giants v West Coast Eagles estimate market $11/$1.10 Actual n/a
  • Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.18/$4.75
  • North Melbourne Kangaroos v Geelong Cats estimate market $2.50/$1.66 Actual $5/$1.16

Best Bet(s)

Hawks, Geelong (use both as bankers in parlays)

Fair Chance

Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs (Swans have a problem with consistency), St Kilda too are not that reliable.

Value

Collingwood, this will really test Carlton and should they win I will re rate them

Thoughts

Adelaide with 6.5 goals start, Hawks are coming off 2 really tough matches. Best to leave it alone. Demons get 6.5 goals start after being beaten by 15 goals, again leave it alone, their coaching problems and cultural issues are just too crazy.

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NRL

  • St George Dragons v Newcastle Knights estimate market $1.90/$2.11 Actual $1.55/$2.45
  • Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders estimate market $1.50/$3 Actual $1.30/$3.50
  • Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs estimate market $1.20/$6 Actual $1.30/$3.50
  • Sydney Roosters v NQ Cowboys estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $2.05/$1.75 – no selection
  • Manly Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans estimate market $1.40/$3.50 Actual $1.20/$4.50
  • NZ Warriors v South Sydney Rabbitohs estimate market $2.25/$1.80 Actual $1.55/$2.55 – no selection
  • Cronulla Sharks v Parramatta Eels estimate market $1.80/$2.25 Actual $1.50/$2.60
  • Penrith Panthers v West’s Tigers estimate market $2.50/$1.66 Actual $2.10/$1.72

Best Bet

Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm

Good Bet

Souths (only at that price) Warriors should be favoured at Mt Smart, but they are so inconsistent. Souths second half against Bulldogs was to nil. Quite impressive, and they are better off without Asotasi. He should be cut at seasons end if not sooner.

Possible

Parramatta and Roosters (those two matches will be good contests). Knights are slowly turning things around. The pre Wayne Bennett culture is conflicting the old culture, but there is improvement in their completion factor, at times. Knights simply need this win.

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Betting Summary

  • Parlay: Hawthorn (AFL), Geelong (AFL), Wests (NRL), Broncos (NRL), Storm (NRL) each all up (1.18 x 1.16 x 1.72 x 1.30 x 1.20 plus… ) is $3.67 x ?
  • Port Adelaide (AFL) (half unit) @ 2.7 is $9.92
  • Western Bulldogs (AFL) (half unit) @ 2.7 is $9.92
  • Sydney Roosters (NRL) (half unit) @$2.05 is $7.53
  • Waratahs (SR) (full unit) @ not available
  • Collingwood (AFL) (half unit) @ 2.05 is $7.53
  • Souths (NRL) (full unit) @ 2.55 is $9.37

Greatest risk;

Tiredness of Hawthorn but they are in front of home crowd. (the $1.18 is way unders) you might consider leaving it out at that price.

Last thoughts,

You might consider other parlay options but I have attempted to isolate the greatest risk posed so that I don’t have excessive risk in any one bet.

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The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    April 13, 2012 at 2:47 pm

    Several things. Broncos were short at $1.30. Now that Wallace is out they are heavily unders. I would now rerate the match $1.80/$2.22. I do expect Broncos to win, but the probability is lower. There will be good money for Raiders before tonights match. The Raiders are the only team to have given the Storm a good go this year.

    Last night Melbourne Rebels upset the ACT Brumbies. It tends to reinforce what I wrote on Wednesday. “there is simply no sure thing” referring to this weekend’s Super Rugby.

    Wests have attracted some big bets in NRL. That was pretty much my thoughts earlier. Some might want to stand them out of the parlay equation. Penrith will be without Jennings, but they are still a team of potential, who just can’t play consistently.

    I did not select between Roosters and Cowboys in Darwin and Souths and Warriors at Mt Smart. I personally can’t pick the winners of those two matches. Johnathon Thurston is complaining about the heat in training. Easts are serious top 8 contenders, while Cowboys are possibly top 4 contenders. At Mt Smart the Warriors tend to lead Souths 10 nil and never let Souths back into the match. Maybe this year Maguire has a different Souths. Hence the $2.45 to $2.50 is some value.

    I keep thinking the Knights are good things against Saints. Then I go back and think about how woeful last Sundays display against the Eels was. Bennett is working as best he can to turn around the culture. Saints have gone well at times but then been flogged to nil by firstly Bulldogs and last week the Sharks.

    There are simply too many unpredictables.

  2. April 17, 2012 at 8:19 pm

    A good weekend for your best picks – all NRL mind you … well done.

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