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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – Easter Weekend Preview –

EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
Easter Weekend preview –
Gambling Index 216.67 (base 100 as at 30/3/2012)*.
This is my first post for the 2012 footy season across the AFL, League and other sports mediums.  For starters I have introduced a new format and a Gambling Index further explained here:

*The Gambling/Betting Index is a cumulative return, where 100 is your base, initial outlay.

Last Saturday I selected Cronulla head to head returning $2.20, Fremantle head to head returning $2.35 and Parramatta with 9 and half start returning $1.95. Therefore each $3 outlayed returned $6.50. This is then turned into this index. Your actual return may vary according to where you bet and timing of bet.

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Weekend 6th – 9th April. [Fri – Mon].

Golden Slipper:

With final field declared I will be investing 3 units on Snitzerland to place (fixed odds $4.77). Fixed odds does not work on tote logics. A tote is meant to have a guaranteed return to the betting agency. This ridiculous unders only helps an arbitrage and harms the punter. Latest odds $5.32. Fair odds $6.

Anyway I secured $4.77, the favourite is paying $1.31 to place, absolutely stupid in such a race. Big field over 1200m where size of price money sees jockeys bunch into first corner, despite consistent warnings from the stewards. When you earn over $300k for 5 minutes work, who cares if you get a holiday. Winning is all that matters.

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Super Rugby

  • Rebels v Blues $2.22/$1.81
  • Hurricanes v Sharks $2.08/$1.92
  • Reds v Brumbies Even Money (go the Brumbies)
  • Force v Chiefs $2.50/$1.66
  • Highlanders v Stormers Match of the Round $2.22/$1.81 possible final preview
  • Cheetahs v Lions $1.81/$2.22
  • Bulls v Crusaders $$1.81/$2.22 another critical match

(At time of posting TAB Sportsbet have not posted their prices)

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AFL

  • Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues est. $2.70/$1.59 Actual $3.25/$1.33
  • Essendon Bombers v Port Adelaide $1.92/$2.08 Actual $1.20/$4.40
  • Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers $2.08/$1.92 Actual $1.65/$2.25
  • West Coast Eagles v Melbourne Demons $1.66/$2.50 Actual $1.05/$9.00
  • Collingwood Magpies v Richmond Tigers $1.33/$4 Actual $1.15/$5.25
  • Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs $1.92/$2.08 Actual $1.20/$4.40
  • North Melbourne Kangaroos v Western Sydney Giants $1.33/$4 Actual $1.01/$15
  • St Kilda Saints v Gold Coast Suns $1.33/$4 Actual $1.03/$11.00
  • Geelong Cats v Hawthorn Hawks even money Actual $2.30/$1.60

Best Bet; Fremantle

Fair Chance; Port Adelaide & Western Bulldogs

Value; Geelong Cats

Ridiculous Pricing; West Coast Eagles (They should win but not at those prices, Demons should show up this weekend.)

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NRL

  • Rabbits v Bulldogs $2.08/$1.92 Actual $2.25/$1.65
  • Tigers v Broncos $3/$1.50 Actual $2.35/$1.60 Robbie Farah is back
  • Titans v Roosters $2.22/$1.81 Actual $2.15/$1.70
  • Sharks v Dragons $2.22/$1.81 Actual $2.10/$1.72
  • Raiders v Warriors $2.08/$1.92 Actual $2.05/$1.75
  • Knights v Eels $1.81/$2.22 Actual $1.50/$2.60
  • Cowboys v Storm $6/$1.22 Actual $2.25/$1.65 Cowboys thrashed the Storm in Rd3 2011 34 – 6
  • Sea Eagles v Panthers $2.08/$1.92 Actual $1.45/$2.75 Await news on Kieran Foran

Best Bet; Panthers

Good Bet; Broncos and Storm

Possible; Parramatta

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Betting Summary

  • 3 units on Snitzerland to place in the Golden Slipper at $4.77
  • 1 unit on Fremantle head to head against Sydney Swans at $2.25
  • ½ unit on Western Bulldogs at $4.40
  • ½ unit on Port Adelaide at $4.40

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The Rookie Bookie …

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    April 4, 2012 at 6:37 pm

    Sportsbet have now posted odds on this weekend super rugby. The teams underlined are my selection head to head. In odds there is nothing exceptional accept for Reds v Brumbies. The Reds have a line out problem exposed in Round 3. They have not won since. This game could well determine the Australian Conference winner. Brumbies have many big tests to come, including 2 against NSW Waratahs. I fancy the Brumbies at $2.25, and will invest 1 unit. This means I only have a half unit left to gamble before seeing some results on Staurday. NRL teams are not announced, and I believe there is also one judiciary determination unresolved re Michael Crocker.

    The five bets so far outlined all are determined and payable by Saturday evening,

  2. LongJohn
    April 4, 2012 at 7:10 pm

    Hey Rookie Bookie,

    I am a little confused over your unit betting and Index calculations.

    For example you outlayed a total 5 units in your original post – is there a weekly limit on this?

    Then in your comments you say that you made further outlays – and say you only have a half unit left until some results come in.

    If anyon eis gonna follow the system it might help of we can understand the system a litttle better.

    Awaiting your response.

    Long John.

  3. Rookie Bookie
    April 5, 2012 at 8:43 am

    A unit is according to individual means and philosophy. For one it might be $1000 for another it might be $50.

    Last Saturday I posted 3 bets. That was set out earlier. Those bets won 116.67% of whatever money was outlaid. I didn’t discuss units. Let us say one individual followed the system but put $200 on Parramatta, and $100 each on Fremantle and Cronulla they achieved 112.50% win. Implied is three equal units. This weekend I highlight that Fremantle is about twice as good a bet as Western Bulldogs or Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide has attracted quite a sum of support. Western Bulldogs has virtually no takers. According to the weight of money that implies Port Adelaide is a better bet. While acknowledging that I am not so sure. Adelaide Crows defeated Gold Coast.after winning the pre season cup. Western Bulldogs were soundly beat by Weagles. I still believe at $4.50 Bulldogs are a chance. But probably right closer to $3. Therefore a half unit make sense. In the Port Adelaide scenario trying to beat Essendon at Etihad hasn’t been done in 8 years. But they are really looking for a big season after an abysmal 2011. Same cuts for Fremantle. Fremantle’s injuries late last year meant most of their senior players were not available. I truly believe Freo will win, I am not that sure with Port, but find the odds juicy.

    Horse racing is simply different science. Corey Brown has ridden several 2 yo’s in lead up races. He finished 4th in Riesling Slipper Trial to the favourite. Tomorrows winner may chase the 2 year old triple crown. Several place getters will go to spell for the big 3yo races of the spring. Also rans will contest the Sires Produce and Champagne stakes with a Qld carnival thereafter. It is so many things. As I said for jockeys it is a possible purse of $300k for 5 minutes work. There is only one golden slipper. I want to risk more. I have actually put more than three units on it. I might well out perform or under perform my own index.

    Should I lose everything on Saturday my index will look like trash. I will cross that bridge when I come to it. Let’s face it, all gamblers must admit there is an element of greed involved. Is it business or is it pleasure? It should be pleasure.

    Good Punting

  4. LongJohn
    April 5, 2012 at 9:30 am

    Thanks Rookie Bookie –

    Yet your last comment makes me weeze a little –

    I have a friend who loves to boast they he beats the Casino’s every time – he is a $10 better on the Blackjack tables – and I always get a text messages saying he just won $10 or $20 at such and such a Casino. His phisolophy is the get out at any time he is in front – simply because the odds are against you ever winning.

    When you say punting should be pleasure – I can agree that as Paul Newman said in the movie “Colour of Money’ – “nothin’ beats money won as opposed to money earned.’

    It is nice to win and win big – but for the amount of work most punters do in assessing horse form, or counting cards at the casino, or the sport analysis of sports injuries and team harmony, you should expect an earn –

    The mistress who goes to the races on your arm and punts according to fashion tips or song names and wins – is the punter who bets for pleasure – with someone’s elses money of course …

    But for most – punting/gambling is a serious business. Very few win – I’ve found that on 95% of all days I used to punt – I was always ahead at some point – if I have of done what my friend at the casino does and walked away as soon as i was in front – who knows how many millions I would have today …

    Love you intent and will be following your selections with interest – and with some of my own hoola ..

    Long John.

  5. April 8, 2012 at 7:00 am

    A great selection in Sntizerland –

    When the front on vision was aired you could see she was on her wrong leg after she and the winner brushed at the 200 – she changed stride again on the line – unlucky no to have won – but at 20/1 e/w a great selection…

    Also – 5 from 5 in the NRL – I don’t follow the ARL or Union … have no ide ahow those results are going – but the league picks great …

  6. Rookie Bookie
    April 8, 2012 at 7:13 am

    Nice collect on Snitzerland official tote $5.20, tends to show how fixed odds are a joke,

    but as for football, Brumbies went down, Highlanders thrashed at home, Bulls narrowly defeat Crusaders at home. All of this has significant bearing. Brumbies are Conference leader by virtue of a bye. Reds are yet to have their bye. Which means that Australia are just woeful. Betting for Tri nations is available, and only a fool would put their money on Australia right now.

    The AFL ledger is worse, Freo lost, and I went down on Bulldogs and Port Adelaide.

    In keeping with Long John’s questions about index and units, I had several bets not previously mentioned due to limitation of units. I backed Sharks in NRL head to head @ $2.20, Port Adelaide plus 25.5 points @ $1.95, Richmond plus 35.5 @ $1.78, Western Bulldogs plus 30.5 @ $1.95, Fremantle plus 7.5 @ $1.95. As all of these are over and they were not set out prior to playing they are not included in the index. They have the effect of redeeming other losses. (bets outlined)

    The index stands at 493.7. This is now re expressed as Positive 393.7% (minus original stake). If anyone is following me, please go and buy the little lady something nice this morning.

    I will just watch the rest of this weekend, I feel I am gambling too much. That is why I was once called “two Flys”. I would gamble on 2 flys crawling up a wall. Penrith can beat Manly without the added weight of my funds. I am still keen on Storm as well.

  7. Rookie Bookie
    April 10, 2012 at 9:34 am

    Unable to help myself I watched first Melbourne Storm put the cleaners through Cowboys, then Geelong Cats in a great match with Hawthorn, and then heard Brett Stewart and Keiran Foran were out so went short tries at 6.5. Manly had potency with Matai back. Penrith need to take a long hard look at themselves. Their defence looked like a bunch of 6 year olds. Is Gould a super coach at all. He had two great teams at Penrith in 91 and Canterbury. This penrith team will take many years to regain potency.

    On the AFL there are like 6 elite teams and the other 12 make up the numbers. This years finals series will include Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn, Weagles and Dockers. The other two are merely academic making up the numbers. Some doubt Weagles orthodoxy.

    In NRL Storm and Broncos appear to be elite, but Rugby League is so different. When people talk of Melbourne’s stars they mean Slater, Cronk and Smith. Hoffman and Neilson are just as critical. They add so much to defence. Broncos without T’eo will go OK but injury and suspension is such a great leveller.

    With Super Rugby it all appears to be who will stop Caretown

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