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EYE-BALL’s Snoop-Poop on – NRL – 2012 – Round 4 Wrap …

March 28, 2012
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Title:
NRL – 2012 – Round 4 Wrap …
Winners and Losers:

Again Friday Night Football produced the ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ performance of a ‘good’ game and a ‘poor’ game.

The Broncos v Rabbitohs match was the best shown on Free to Air since the 2012 comp got underway.  Souths were dominate in the first half – aided by many doubtful Touchjudge calls.  The second half 16-0 performance by the Broncos after trailing 12-4 at halftime gave two answers –

  1. Souths still have to prove they can finish a game off – and
  2. The Broncos have a heart as big as lions.

The other match was not even worth watching – Penrith over Parramatta 39-6 and that was flattering for Parramatta.  Where the Eels go from here is anyones guess – even their fans booed them from the field.

Warriors and St George put up impressive wins on Saturday with St George’s performance against the Premiers Manly the talk of the round.  Storm belted the Roosters and remain the only unbeaten team.  The Cowboys, Tigers and Bulldogs were all beaten in home games and this continued the high home loss ration this competition is producing.

Anyone who dismisses poor performing teams this early in the season does so at great risk.  This season might prove the early form of some teams is over or under rated as the season progresses.   One thing for sure – Storm, Broncos and St George look to be the early front runners – Souths have the player roster and are yet to finish off games from winning positions – the Bulldogs have been hot and cold, and the Warriors have backed up their finals birth form from last season.

The also rans are also emerging – Parramatta is the obvious choice for wooden spoon – the Titans could challenge that if their financial woes continues to eat into the football teams performance.  Penrith have yet to prove they can be be consistent,  Canberra are a darkies with wins in their last two rounds – both away from home.    Newcastle face a test this weekend against Storm, Cowboys are also on the brink with the Roosters – the two-tiered competition has already emerged.

This weekends games provide a few good matchups – both Friday night games Broncos host St George, and the Storm host Newcastle will provide some great footy.

I think the Broncos will be down on last weeks performance given the player cost and effort plus the travel factor.  Newcastle turned their performance around last weekend after being completely outclassed by the Broncos the week before.  The Storm matchup will give a good perspective of where they are in their season.

The other interesting matchups are the Tigers hosting the Rabbitohs and the Raiders hosting the Cowboys.  If the Rabbitohs and Cowboys don’t win these away games then their season begins to look tougher having lost their previous home games.

Weekly Comments:

Parramatta:  On this continuing ‘train-wreck’ the word is the Coach has had discussions and speculation is ever increasing that he is on the way out.

Sea-Eagles:  Cherry-Evans signed a big contract leading into last weekends games – the media beat-up about him wanting a release from his last year was a plant story and most fell for it.  Their new Coach Geoff Toovey appears to now be their problem – he has made a name for himself in his first year of coaching in that if he does not like the ref’s call he speaks out – something all inexperienced coaches do.

Titans: The big news is the questions being raised about their financial position and continued viability.  The big talk is about the AFL incursion into the NRL heartland if the Titans fold – this story is already biting into the Titans on field performances and the big player signings for next season would already be feeling a bit sick.

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    March 28, 2012 at 2:46 pm

    The following is only my thoughts. I offer it as how I will analyse my own bets with betting agencies. Late changes in playing rosters will affect my own betting.

    Super Rugby
    Otago v Melbourne in Invercargill my odds Highlanders $1.33/Rebels $4
    Hurricanes v Cheetahs in Wellington Wellington $1.9/Free State $2.11
    Waikato v NSW in Hamilton – Chiefs $2/Waratahs $2
    Brumbies v Sharks in Canberra – even money as well
    Force v Reds in Perth – Force $3.05/Qld $1.43
    Lions v Crusaders in Jo’burg (another toughie) – Transvaal $2.22/ Christchurch $1.81
    Stormers v Bulls in Capetown. Capetown even money as well

    In League
    Broncos v Saints in Brisbane $1.66/$2.50
    Melbourne v Newcastle $1.70/$2.38
    Panthers v Sharks Even Money
    Parra v Sea Eagles $2.50/$1.66
    Roosters v Warriors $2.50/$1.66
    Titans v Bulldogs $3/$1.50
    Tigers v Rabbits $2.30/$1.77
    Raiders v Cowboys $2.05/$1.96

    In AFL
    Richmond v Carlton $2.50/$1.66
    Hawthorne v Magpies Even Money – match of the round.
    Demons v Lions $1.50/$3
    Freo v Cats (Upset of the weekend – go the Dockers)
    Roos v Bombers $2.50/$1.66
    Bulldogs v Weagles $2.25/$1.80
    Port v Saints $2.11/$1.90

    I have been wandering through the Olympics betting. I was thinking Australia 11 gold medals, maybe 35 medals total. No odds yet posted. England (host nation) will take many of our areas of expertise ie cycling. China will threaten USA big time too.

    Happy Hunting/Good Punting

  2. David the Pragmatist
    March 30, 2012 at 9:07 am

    Parra again unlucky. Bloody referees, when will they get it right. At least 9 of Penriths tries were suspect and the other 14 line ball!

    Memo Stephen Kearney
    Get another hooker!!! Anyone who can run and pass from Dummy Half without having to wait 30 seconds to pass it. Luke Burt will do (they dropped him and Ryan Morgan(deservedly).
    If he cannot see he is a problem then he (the coach) must be the problem.

    Previous week loss to Cowboys by 40 points, no changes.
    This week lost Panthers 40 points, the above changes and Hayne returning.
    Teams winning every week have more players dropped!

  3. Rookie Bookie
    March 31, 2012 at 8:35 am

    Where I assess Brumbies v Natal Sharks In Canberra at even money you might expect a generous chance on the betting agencies. TAB Sportsbet has Natal Sharks at $1.70 and ACT Brumbies at $2.05. They have %’s of 107.6%. If they can balance their wagers held, they will make 7.6% of the amount held. In Australia, the Brumbies will have greater support. It is hard to find punters interested in backing South African teams. If they can lay off in South Africa it helps. In this scenario I will not bet.

    Yesterday’s High Court decision against Betfair and SportingBet affects these percentages. The NRL can expect to receive 1.5% of all bets held, same for SANZAR or AFL.

    At this stage in NRL I have simply backed Sharkies over Penrith, Parramatta with 9.5 points start, and in AFL Fremantle to win.

    I am saving up my chips for Snitzerland in the Golden Slipper.

  4. League Leg End
    March 31, 2012 at 8:29 pm

    Go the Eels. Manly on 4 points, Parramatta on 2. Go my Sharkies. Three wins for 6 points. After the Storm and maybe Broncos, what a comp. All I want to complete a great weekend is Titans and Raiders. As for Tigers and Souths it doesn’t matter much – one of those two teams will only be in front of Parramatta by for and against. The other will be level peeging with Manly on the second lowest rung.

    As for Knights and Tigers being premiership hotshots before the season started, yeah right.

  5. Rookie Bookie
    April 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    Post Game Review – Betting Index 216.67 (base 100 30/3/2012)
    Super Rugby
    Rockers; Orange Freestate Cheetahs, Waikato Chiefs, Western Force, Capetown Stormers

    Shockers; NSW Waratahs, Qld Reds, defence (average points scored 52 per match).

    At the halfway point, the Australian Conference is a disgrace. Total table points for SA Conference is 93, NZ Conference is 88, Australian conference is 66. On weekend past we played 4 games for 4 losses and one win (force defeat Reds). Reds chances of defending their title look slim. At this stage it is hard to choose between Brumbies, Reds, and Waratahs to win our conference but the chances of hosting the final are negligible. So are Australia’s hopes in tri nations. Stormers really look the goods.

    AFL
    Rockers; Western Bulldogs, Fremantle Dockers, Port Adelaide

    Shockers; Melbourne Demons, Gold Coast Suns.

    As Carlton put Richmond to the sword, I saw a missed gambling opportunity, it could have been last year. The big guns from last year, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorne all went well enough, so much more was expected from the Demons (what an appropriate name).

    NRL
    Rockers; Melbourne Storm, Brisbane Broncos, Cronulla Sharks,

    Shockers; Warriors, Raiders, Wests Tigers.

    Who can beat the Storm. Good to see Parramatta find the will to win. Souths ever so lucky, improvement due from Penrith and Newcastle.

    Golden Slipper; With final field declared I will be investing 3 units on Snitzerland to place (fixed odds $4.55). The fixed odds are paying only 80% of their hold. Absolutely disgusting. Anyway

    Next Weekend
    Super Rugby
    Rebels v Blues $2.22/$1.81
    Hurricanes v Sharks $2.08/$1.92
    Reds v Brumbies Even Money (go the Brumbies)
    Force v Chiefs $2.50/$1.66
    Highlanders v Stormers Match of the Round $2.22/$1.81 possible final preview
    Cheetahs v Lions $1.81/$2.22
    Bulls v Crusaders $$1.81/$2.22 another critical match

    AFL
    Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues $2.70/$1.59
    Essendon Bombers v Port Adelaide $1.92/$2.08
    Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers $2.08/$1.92
    West Coast Eagles v Melbourne Demons $1.66/$2.50
    Collingwood Magpies v Richmond Tigers $1.33/$4
    Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs $1.92/$2.08
    North Melbourne Kangaroos v Western Sydney Giants $1.33/$4
    St Kilda Saintsv Gold Coast Suns $1.33/$4
    Geelong Cats v Hawthorne Hawks even money

    NRL
    Rabbits v Bulldogs $2.08/$1.92
    Tigers v Broncos $3/$1.50
    Titans v Roosters $2.22/$1.81
    Sharks v Dragons $2.22/$1.81
    Raiders v Warriors $2.08/$1.92
    Knights v Eels $1.81/$2.22
    Cowboys v Storm $6/$1.22
    Sea Eagles v Panthers $2.08/$1.92

    The above are indicative thoughts only. Assessments and Bets to follow by 6pm Thursday.

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