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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – NRL PS&GFR (Post Season and Grand Final Review).

October 3, 2011
NRL PS&GFR (Post Season and Grand Final Review).
Tonight Tab Sportsbet put up a market in NRL 2012 Premiership. They have Manly favourites, Melbourne next and Wests Tigers 3rd line of betting.The reason I started to write this article is the betting agencies increased sport and commercial television profile.Back in the 60’s real bookmaking still existed. You were in a very competitive market, and you had to lay horses to survive. What would Hercules Waterhouse think of his great grandson David’s modern way of sponging off the TAB, given his was just a publican and SP bookmaker at Milson Point, while the Harbour Bridge was built. The pubs in those days spilling to the streets after the tradies came in for liquid refreshment after building the bridge day after day. He was in a parallel universe. The TAB was introduced to wipe out SP bookmakers. Now bookmakers are part of it.

The bookmakers these days really have a fat margin and they don’t really go out on a limb. They don’t compete for business through price, only salesmanship. Like so many things when you get rid of one part, technological improvement, then often years of craftmanship get lost in the process and we go about reinventing the world.

Gambling on sporting matches is so different to racing. Sporting matches have one essential outcome. One team wins and the other team loses. My best call was Wallabies to win the Tri-nations. Group thinking puts NZ All Blacks on a mentality which is just not right. NZ have lost to Australia at Suncorp this year. The same attitude puts NZ at $1.75 to win the World Cup. How was St George being so short at Round 11 or Melbourne being favourites at Round 26 after incurring a loss to Manly in round 25 and Easts in round 26.

Collingwood were simply unstoppable in winning back to back flags, yet they lost. Bookmakers love those trends, simple media fashion. Again why are Sportsbet and Centrebet now major sponsors, of so much. Having bought a seat in the media they can buy trends. Much professional money has come for whoever. How does that insight affect your thinking? Somebody knows something? This old bloke taught me a decade ago, when you have influence, you walk up to six different gamblers and give them good information about 6 different horses. Whichever one wins you bite for $50. To the others, you blame the jockey, “the connections will be fuming with that ride”.

 RULE #1

When gambling, you own the decision, so you don’t want to hear the latest rumours. You don’t want to listen to all and sundry. You are choosing to select that information which helps good decision making and don’t want to listen to mindless banter. (My grandfather was illiterate yet every Friday evening he would have the form guide on his lap, studying times and weights.

His rule was be guided by the eye, and let your money be the last thing you part from).

After my win on Wallabies my next best fun was tipping Easts in Round 26 all up Geelong in Round 24. I had no reason to suspect that Billy Slater and Cam Smith would be rested once Manly lost to Broncos. But while that was good how many losses did I incur in other scenarios like tipping Canterbury to beat Manly head to head plus with the margin. For a while I believed that Penrith would stand up, but it was simply not to be. There were so many chances for the 8 but in the end it was relatively cut and dried. Fremantle being carved up by Carlton was no different.

 Rule #2

Don’t bet frivolously. Backing Melbourne to win at $1.04 is as silly as backing an even money bet priced at $1.80 or $1.85. Too many punters bet for bragging rights. I backed my team to make the 4 at $4.75 or to win the comp at $15 or $34. I naturally wanted my bet on Hawthorn all up Broncos to get up at 30 to 1, but how realistic was it. The Hawks lost to Geelong and Collingwood when it mattered. Broncos is different, they finished equal with Manly on wins, but due to for and against had to play in the semi finals when Lockyer incurred his smashed eye socket. One of the reasons that saw me back Manly was the silly odds they offered immediately after Wests Tigers beat St George in the Qualifying Final. I obtained 9 to 2 when I needed about $3.80 or $3.40. I rest easily with having lost my money on the Broncos. Hawthorn was less realistic, but I feel I didn’t really lose at all because I won just as much on betting live. Excess outlay for no real net return.

Rule #3

Don’t take your self too seriously. I backed NSW to win the 1st State of Origin game, and the Third. For the second I was out of the country. When they lost you need to detach. If you can’t do the time, don’t do the crime.

If you can’t afford to lose, don’t bet. When you are gambling impaired, you will see too many get rich quick scenarios and this will quickly wipe out your stake. This is also often referred to as stop your losses.

Today I want to collect my winnings on Manly and Geelong and make something favourite at Randwick. But going forward, I have some interests in the RWC to punt around. Those posts will continue. I will speak to Eyeball about next year, whether he wants (as an editor) to do this again.

Good Punting and Happy Hunting.


The Rookie Bookie …

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