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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – The Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals.

October 2, 2011
The 2011 Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals
I wrote two weeks ago about the likely pool match ups in the light of the Irish Win over Australia. I was searching for a way for one of the southern hemisphere Tri nations team to cross over. I also said to back Wales to play in the semi’s.

Anyway I was slightly shocked to find Scotland going home, and Argentina got thru, but it is of little consequence because they play NZ next week. I rate NZ 80% and Argentina 20%. I rate Australia South Africa a 50% even money bet. I rate England 60% to France 40% and Ireland Wales another even money chance.

I expect Argentina, South Africa, France and Ireland to be going home after the Quarters, but it could easily be Australia or Wales rather than South Africa or Ireland. Australia and South Africa are $8 or 7 to 1 to win the final. I have already backed SA at $10 so will now back Australia, today.

Regarding the Northern hemisphere teams it is hard to take the Six nations results this year and use them as a guide. Italy gets some results despite what we have seen so far, and on their day each team is competitive. This is why I like Wales, England are very short. Italy are a small chance of upsetting Ireland today, say 30% maybe 33%. That would have massive bearing on the draw.

In sudden death football, anything can happen as we saw where the Warriors have made the GF in the NRL. Two weeks ago they were rated at about 4% probability, today they are closer to 40% probability.

Back Australia to win RWC, and SA too if you have not already. England at $9 does not appeal, although you should expect them to win thru to final, and there is no value there the NZ England quinella is $2.75

Happy Hunting and Good Punting


The Rookie Bookie …

  1. Rookie Bookie
    October 7, 2011 at 3:33 pm

    Last Sunday, I got 6’s about Australia (bad price) and on Monday had 1/2 stake on Wales and Ireland to win RWC at $14 and $13.

    I will definitely have two bets in the semis. Should SA beat Aust. I will have 9 to 2 in the semi, should Aust come through I will have 5 to 2, and in the other side I will have Wales at 6 to 1 or Ireland at 11 to 2.

    Therefore this weekend in the two matches I have no interest in go The Pumas, and go Le Coq. I have established, assuming Argentina and France both lose, then co variance on NZ to win is 36.3%, on Australia or SA 29.7% with England 17.16% and Wales or Ireland at 15.84%. 5 to 2 is 28.4%, and 11 to 2 is 15.38%

    Good Punting and Happy hunting.

  2. Rookie Bookie
    October 9, 2011 at 6:54 am

    On September 23 when I wrote put 5 bob on Wales to make the semi finals there were at 5 to 2 to make it. Since Qtr Final Match ups were determined last week you could not get better than evens about yesterday’s result.

    This Northern hemisphere conference and Southern Hemisphere conference makes it difficult to assess the actual final. Wales held SA to a point. Ireland beat Australia, Argentina took England down to the wire in a thriller, and NZ absolutely flogged France in the first 40 minutes and secured their bonus point. Then France lost to Samoa. In 1987 the inaugural final was France against NZ with Wales third, Scotland fourth.

    For now simply focus on today, two illuminating events, where it will be hard to see NZ losing but will be interesting to see how they go with out Carter.

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting

  3. Rookie Bookie
    October 16, 2011 at 2:04 am

    Go the Wannabes!

    The winner between Australia and NZ should be 98% chance to beat France in the final.

  4. Rookie Bookie
    October 17, 2011 at 6:25 am

    New Zealand are worthy world champs. Their performance throughout has matched the bookmakers assessment.

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