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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – The business end of the season, and now there are 4.

September 19, 2011
EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
The business end of the season, and now there are 4.
The Warriors win over Wests Tigers has really thrown me. A fortnight ago I said it will be sad to lose both Cowboys and Warriors, they add value. Last week after both were flogged by Manly and Broncos I said Warriors were just making up the numbers. About last Friday night. Wests Tigers beat themselves, and that also means that Warriors tenaciously held on and finished the match winners. Wests Tigers, developed a habit of coming out quietly after half time, and not sustaining 80 minutes. That was their downfall. They believed their own Bovine Excretia. I could not be bothered reading Benji Marshall in the Sunday papers. The off season is the best part of six months long, Benji, see you next year. The 4 Nations is a joke comp too. I will not watch a match.

Warriors have thrown me, ie I am troubled rating them. For weeks I have been saying assume the last two weeks to be even money all up even money.

Warriors can beat the Storm. However that is still a low probability outcome. I am struggling to put a number on it. Storm 75%, Warriors 25% The other matches are much easier. Manly 55% and Broncos 45%. Collingwood 75% and Hawthorn 25%, Geelong 70% and Weagles 30%.

Peter Wallace has not been cited, but the news on Lockyer is amazing. His field goal will no have to go close to John Sattler‘s broken jaw in the Grand Final of 1970. The shot was so low, that until it sailed over the black dot, no one believed except for him. When he refused treatment to his face it showed his true grit. Legendary now… surely soon to be immortal.

Clive Churchill getting Souths into the Final series in 1955 with a broken arm.

I have stated earlier I backed Broncos on Aug 30 at 9 to 2 to win GF. Then I backed Manly at 9 to 2 on September 10 again to win GF. Therefore I have the winner of second preliminary final in the GF at 9 to 4. I have also backed Hawthorn to win GF at 11 to 2. I also have Manly all up Geelong at 10 to 1, and Hawthorn all up Broncos at 30 to 1. I need to think of the Broncos all up Hawthorn as individual bets. The big trouble is laying off on Collingwood is prohibitive. Collingwood is @ $1.28, Geelong is @ $1.22, Manly are @ $1.55, and Storm @ $1.40. If I add Tab Sportsbet % they are working a book on 3%, unbelievable. They rate Collingwood and Hawthorn similar to my assessment. They rate Collingwood better than I do. Therefore will I get into the Weagles. Got to think about it. I should back Broncos, and Melbourne to win the GF. Again I will have to dwell on that.

On Saturday in the Weagles v Blues Match, Blues won the 1st qtr by 21, lost the 2nd qtr by 32, won the 3rd quater by 2, won the last qtr by 6 and lost the match by 3. Sure Geelong at their best are better than Carlton. Geelong must play 2 matches now without lapse. In Round 23 they got smashed by Swans then smashed the Magpies by a bigger margin. How do I cope with that. It has a parallel to Wests Tigers failing to sustain against Warriors, they simply were up themselves.

For all of this I will just choose to dwell.

Before signing off, on RWC, Australia were simply atrocious, and full respect to Ireland. Australia must get past Ireland to expect to play NZ in the Final. Very importantly they will now likely play South Africa in the Qtr Final. I can’t see them beating Ireland again. Anyway a long way to go.

On my suggested bet of NZ by 25 to 49, where I was so wrong was that I overlooked NZ’s second team could likely beat any other team in the World Cup, such is the fervor for the game on the Shaky Isles. I will still go looking for some margin bets knowing right now my only interest is having backed South Africa to win at 9 to 1. They are now at 11 to 1, where England have shortened significantly to be 3rd in the betting.

Good Punting and Happy Hunting.

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  1. September 20, 2011 at 1:37 pm

    “Warriors can beat the Storm. However that is still a low probability outcome. I am struggling to put a number on it. Storm 75%, Warriors 25% The other matches are much easier. Manly 55% and Broncos 45%.”

    The Warriors might just surprise you. If they are on their game they will surprise the Storm, especially if there are a lot of Kiwis at AAMI Park (which I expect there will be). I would put it at 50/50.

    As for Manly being a 55% chance to do the Broncs, that is simply fantasy. The Broncos are on a roll at the moment, and don’t buy the nonsense that Locky won’t be playing. Broncos 90%/Sea Eagles 10%.

    Fingers crossed for a NZ/Bne final. 🙂

  2. September 20, 2011 at 1:53 pm

    Welcome Obfuscated Jogger,

    I’m with you on the Warrios game – the Storm are vulnerable basis their Manly capictulation – but for the Bronco’s – the Bookies are not doing much business untill a decision is made about Lockyer –

    Amazing isn’t it – Bookmakers not prepared to offer tight spreads basis whether a player is fit to play or not – been happening for years – i think sports betting is an abomoniaton and has ruined sport accross the globe – you never know if your getting the full ticket value when layers are backing themselves to win and lose …

    The Manly squash on Brisbane at Suncorp – i.e. 10-10 all at half time and them Manly got physical and intimidated the Bronco’s out of the game … uunless Broncos forwards have grown a heart Manly will do the same – Lockyer did not play that game and if he plays it will be different … watch for Mathi to try and and intimidate Lockyer …

    We all wait for Friday’s announcement … without Lockyer I think it is 60/40 Manly – with Lockyer 50/50 … go the Broncs ..

    EYE-BALL …

  3. September 20, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    “watch for Mathi to try and and intimidate Lockyer …”

    I’m fully expecting Griffin to have Locky talked up to being basically clinically dead on the field, drawing Manly into an attempt to injure him out of the game. With Locky drawing all the fire, watch this space for quick balls out to Wallace with more room.

    At least, that’s how I want it to play out. 🙂

  4. Rookie Bookie
    September 20, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    Obfuscated Runner, from your web page, I note you are a Broncos Fanatic. You will get along fine with Eyeball, he is more passionate about QLD dominance generally and deeds of Qld greats generally. (Your admiration for the true grit of Lockyer, is a parallel).

    If anyone was to agree with your assessment, they could win a small fortune this weekend, but if they were to follow you and lose you would need to run with bewildering speed. I rate a Broncos Warriors match up in the Grand Final at about 12% chance. You reckon 45% I would love to see you right (ie Correct). I only implore in the gambling game bet with your head, and try to avoid allowing your heart to rule. I lose far too much money on the bunnies due to this. Since 1971 too often I am the bunny.

    Where I wrote yesterday I am considering backing a Melbourne Storm win in the GF it is only basis my previous wagers on Broncos and Sea Eagles at 9 to 2 to win the GF. I will lock in a profit. That would leave me exposed to the Warriors winning. As I said, I want to make a rational and realistic assessment of that probability. If I were to do nothing and Warriors overcome I would be sitting pretty expecting close to 2 to 1 on Warriors in the GF. I want the Warriors to take out the professional cheats. My feelings towards Manly are not that much better, but for different reasons. (Never forgive Arko). This year at times I feel for Dessie Hasler and crew. This Buhrer is another find, and I wonder will he stand up or get shown up in the weeks ahead. Hasler keeps on finding these cheeky youngsters like Cherry Evans, and for the game it is no different to what Bellyache Bellamy has done over the years. Right now the Broncos have a real find in Maguire, and the return of Thaiday must add. But I want to be dispassionate. Glenn Stewart only returns in the GF? (The NRL page can be hard to understand at times. Did Glenn get benefit of the week off?

    Yesterday I stated my winner between Manly and Broncos is 9 to 4 in the big one. It is 7 to 4. (Convergence of linear and algebraic maths). Last night pondering I felt like John Napier of Merchiston. (the rate of change, calculus).

    On a different matter, RWC there is crossover of all groups in the quarter finals and semi finals so if Aust and Eire were good enough they could meet in the Final. Due to this crossover, as things stand, Australia will play South Africa in the Quarters, with the winner playing NZ in the semi, with England France and Ireland contesting the other spot. Hence the betting would imply a NZ v France or England final.

    In AFL, I am no closer to fixing my dilemma between Hawthorn and Collingwood. My wallet says Hawthorn and my head says Collingwood. I will be watching that simultaneous to watching Broncos v Manly and drinking and betting live.

    Good Punting Happy Hunting

  5. September 21, 2011 at 8:53 pm

    I tihnk my small fortune would now be a large fortune were it to come off. A passionate Broncs fan I am, ’tis true, but now Locky-less. 🙂 Still crossing my fingers nonetheless for a Bne/NZ double.

    In the RWC, I reckon the Wallabies are going to be crushed by the Proteas (sorry, what can I say, the Springbok has migrated to their sleeve).

  6. Rookie Bookie
    September 22, 2011 at 7:04 am

    Lockyer withdrawing, is OK. I had the same operation in 1972. I was on the sidelines for 6 weeks. They would not operate until the swelling had gone down. If they don’t insert a plate in time your eye recedes into the socket. I am now agreeing with Eye ball 60 40, where you know, Broncos will want to win for Lockyer, but will Manly let them. Ironic in the first game this year they rested Lockyer, second game Floran was suspended (so was Brett Stewart, the other attacking ace), and you could see that as the difference.

    Given the RWC is now likely to be Southern Hemisphere on one side, and northern hemisphere on the other, I have been looking for another upset that would see another crossover. Wales have already played the Springboks, losing by a point. NZ always expected to meet one of Australia or South Africa maybe both but it was generally accepted to be in the final.I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Wales beat Eire in the Quarters. If they were to meet England in the semis, England are too short.

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting

  7. Rookie Bookie
    September 23, 2011 at 1:31 am

    About history;

    Statistically 11 or 13 observations mean absolutely nothing. In a game of simple chance like heads or tails, the last observation has no bearing on the next outcome. Try and tell that to an afficionado of Crap, Roulette or Two-up.

    In the AFL since they introduced an 8 team playoff in 2000 there have been 19 teams who went from qualifying finals direct to the preliminary final who featured in the grand final. 8 of those 19 won the flag. That means 11 were runners up. Three teams Lions in 2003, Swans in 2005, and Weagles in 2006 were grand final winners having played in the semi final to qualify for the preliminary final. If those observations mean anything whatsoever, a Weagles or Hawks win are really outside chances, less than 14%, however should they win this weekend they should be favoured in the GF.

    In NRL, it is much more mad. A team coming from 9th, in 1998 played in the grand final. The Bulldogs. Three minor premiers in 13 years have failed to play in the GF. Sharks in 1999, Eels in 2005, Dragons in 2009. The ultimate winner always comes from top 4. The minor premier has won 5 GF, 2nd has won 2, and 3rd and 4th have provided 3 ultimate winners each. The runner up 5 times out of 13 have been outside the top 4. Including Eels in 2009 or Dogs in 1998 (9th). 2nd in the minor premiership were runners up in the GF 4 times.

    This all suggests (I have said no observation of the past has bearing, and statistically, this is nonsense) Storm is are 77% chance of winning, this weekend and Manly Broncos are 52:48%. In AFL both Collingwood and Geelong are 86%,

    Personally I am going bankers of Manly and Geelong, with an upset to come from Hawthorn. In Storm v Warriors I want a Warriors win, but won’t field a bet. If Broncos win, I will take profit handsomely, If Manly win they will start favourite in the GF, and I will get fair odds on the opponent.

    I have been against Collingwood for weeks, and might address it should they come through. I really believe they are simply over rated.

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting

    PS Put 5 bob on Wales in the RWC, basis Semi finalist and beating Ireland in Quarter final.

  8. Rookie Bookie
    September 25, 2011 at 8:25 am

    There won’t be a grand final post. Throughout this analysis I have said assume the Preliminary Final and Grand Final are even money match ups This is so. I rate Geelong and Manly 51%. Tab Sportsbet has Collingwood at $1.80 and Geelong at $2. This is largely because they have taken so much money on Collingwood all year they take profit by laying Geelong. The same will happen on NZ Warriors. In NRL the big money first came for Saints, then Storm, with good money for Wests Tigers, and enough on the Sea Eagles. Their payout on Warriors is a virtual skinner. I advocated backing the Warriors into the top 4 at 9 to 2. You could have got 20 to 1 about Warriors to win the GF before their semi final against Wests. Gambling like so many other things is fashion. Everyone thought Wests were good outside chances despite losing too many silly matches early on, and then the incapacity to play each game on it’s merits. I don’t want to sound like Phil Gould, or the bloke on ABC Local radio. Next weekend the first team to settle down in each match and play football will get a handsome lead. At some stage the other team will settle down, will there be sufficient time to come back. On Friday Hawks lead nearly all the match, but never really established a dominating lead. At 3/4 time they were up by 17, nearly 3 goals. The pies hauled that in fairly easily in the 4th quarter. Last night Warriors played with great confidence, down 6 nil Maloney just played sensible football and quickly levelled the score. It was Melbourne who played harried football, Slater lost his confidence. Slater settled down after half time but then NZ forwards had the centre of the ground and Melbourne gave everything but there was nothing extra left.

    Manly have 2 on report, so what. Who can handle glory? Who has the marginal propensity to be great?

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting.

    PS NZ Warriors chances of winning both Toyota Cup and Premiership is 3 to 1. They are favourites in Toyota Cup. Saints won 1st’s 2nd’s and 3rds in 1963. Many have tried over the years, and it is a monster ask. Have the Kiwis stopped celebrating the NRL and RWC from last night, Their ist half against France was awesome.

  9. September 25, 2011 at 7:15 pm

    News in today is that neither Williams or Mathi will miss the Grand Final – Williams was charged but with carry over good will he will plead guilty and still play – Mathi was not even charged.

    Highlighted on the C9 12:00 show was the fact that Mathi is the most charged player in he league – a perenial offender of dangerous and thug play – why was he not charged? … No – there is no consistency in the Judicary and this goes to Gallop’s own creditability as an administrator.

    Hope Warriors slaughted them.

    Snoop-Poop.
    .

  10. Rookie Bookie
    September 29, 2011 at 9:39 am

    I am still struggling how to deal with my Geelong all up Manly bet @ 10 to 1. I am not that confident about Geelong (50/50) and the same about Manly. I have a 25% probability that cost 9.09%

    Given timing, AFL on Saturday and NRL on Sunday, I can back Magpies to win my stake back @ $1.80, or consider a parlay to be placed after result known Saturday. That is put 2 stakes on Collingwood, with the intention after collecting of backing Warriors before match time on Sunday.

    Decisions, decisions.

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