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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – The NRL final series and applied mathematic

August 29, 2011
The NRL final series and applied mathematic
Humble Pie – Souths cost me dearly yesterday, but I still expect to collect on them making the 8 at 7 – 2, sadly for me given the win on Saturday night as Souths blew in the betting, I kept topping up on them. To my benefit I did take some 12 and a half start. Similarly the Warriors not finishing 4th is OK because I saved on Wests at 5 – 2.

The finals look like;

4th v 5th Tigers v Saints. Played Friday at ANZ stadium Even money match up, both teams 50% chance

3rd vs 6th Broncos v Warriors. Played Saturday at Suncorp Broncos 2 to 1 on ie Broncos 66% and Warriors 33% (Should Cowboys beat the Warriors next Saturday night then Cowboys meet Tigers Saints play Broncos and Warriors play Manly)

2nd v 7th Manly v Cowboys, Played Saturday at SFS Manly 70% probability Cowboys 30% odds of about 9 – 4 on and reciprocal

1st v 8th Melbourne v Souths (8th place to be decided next Friday night at Newcastle where Knights v Souths, for and against don’t matter unless golden point draw, then Newcastle advance). Played Sunday Afternoon in Melbourne

On Channel Nine

Their choice of televised matches is stupid. Saints Warriors should have been on Channel nine last Friday rather than Parramatta Easts, and this coming weekend they have Saints Penrith on at 9.30 when they should have on Warriors Cowboys. The Warriors would rate this year, despite some predicting them for the wooden spoon. Channel Nine wake up. Cowboys would rate massively in Queensland to boot. I tend to be busy at 5.30 on a Saturday, but luckily it is often based around horse racing. I don’t expect that is common to all football followers.

On Probabilities

Being able to convert odds to %’s is the cruc of bookmaking. 7 to 1 means 7 chances of losing and 1 chance of winning, ie 87.5% losing and 12.5% of winning. Take 9 to 4 add them together 13, now divide 100 (%) by 13. Multiply 9 by answer (7.6923) to obtain 69.23. That is probability at 9 to 4 on. Residual 30.77 is the probability at 9 to 4 against. When rounded you see my logic supporting Cowboys are 30% chance against Manly. These percentages are critical to all up betting. It will continue hereafter.

On Judiciuary and Injuries

Manly and Melbourne have every right to carry on about Stewart and Blair. BUT, you just have to deal with it. Blair will be a more critical loss to Melbourne than Stewart to Manly, but so what. That simply affects your %’s. The same cuts for John Sutton, or Asotasi or Gasnier or the outcome of the brawl between Dogs and Knights. Get over it. Be calculating and don’t carry on with the media mentality drivel. Todays Sydney Morning Herald reports “Brett Stewart, Foran, Robertson, Lowe, Norrie and Waqa all have the potential to attract contrary conduct charges”. Yeah grow up and rub those two teams out of the finals series. Simply attempt to deal with facts, not speculation.

Now we go to week two of the semis.

Manly and Melbourne get the week off, and Saints play Warriors, and Tigers play Broncos. Rate those two matches, in probabilities. Broncos will get a second game at Suncorp. Do not dismiss the Suncorp hoodoo. This week end the legend was extended by All Blacks and Souths. Sure Broncos have lost a home match, but every big match has gone to the home team. I would rate both Broncos and Saints 60% therefore Wests and Warriors must be 40%.

For this exercise we will rate the last 3 matches at even money.

Now we can start to look at total probabilities.

Take Warriors. We have week 1 33% Week two 40% week 3 50% and week 4 50%. Compounded 3.3% that is their total chance, and it means I need 30 to 1 to back them. Should I eliminate the first week because they get a second bite at the cherry, advance despite losing. NO. That would skew your analysis of the role of Souths and Cowboys. They are highly unlikely to advance, but there is a remote possibility. Take Souths, their odds would be more like 30% all up 30% all up 50% all up 50% which is 2.25% chance about 40 to 1. As each two teams drop out, the probabilities shorten. Souths are currently 40 to 1 but in week 3 they would still be about 3 to 1 roughly if they have won in weeks 1 and 2.

Using this analysis you can now do it for yourself to try to spot value for your team. A Broncos supporter would want 66% all up 60% all up 50% all up 50%. About 9 to 1. If the unimaginable were to occur, and Souths or Cowboys were to win in week 1, then Broncos will get a weekend off and shorten to about 3 to 1, but that is book making. I do not want to offer 9 to 1 about Broncos, but that is about fair value. Similarly Melbourne and Manly are each about 9 to 2. Sportsbet is offering Melbourne at $3.75 or 11 to 4 before last weekend. They had Manly at $5. They work their % at a payout of about 85%. (please do not quibble whether it is 15% or 16.66% or 17.5% or whatever) it shows you why they are only interested in turnover, not outcomes.

Try the same exercise in AFL. Down there Collingwood might be 2’s on for the flag, however why would you want to back them at that price, it is hardly value. You will probably therefore consider Hawthorn. It is Hawthorn or Geelong they are likely to meet in the grand final, but you will get better value by backing them Collingwood in the last two weekends all up. Each Match will be at about $1.50 or better.

Reverting to Judiciary and Injuries, who is to know whether Darren Lockyer, or Cam Smith or Benji Marshall or …… will come through unscathed. Lockyer and Smith have a pretty good record of being fit, however Smith would not go well at a judiciary hearing. This is the statistical term ceteris paribus. All things being equal. We are trying to be calculating and unimpassioned. I personally think both Manly and Melbourne will not really benefit by the weekend off. Particularly should Blair and Stewart each get 4 weeks. That is beyond my control. I could wait till Wednesday to get my bets on.

Good Punting and Happing Hunting …


The Rookie Bookie …

  1. HissyFit
    August 29, 2011 at 6:59 am

    Well Rookie-Bookie – I got a headache trying to understand all the permutations and odd differentials – thank god for computers and calculators …

    Can you just tell us where the value is so we can enjoy the best of your summations …

    HissyFit …

  2. Firecracker
    August 29, 2011 at 8:02 am

    The overnight news of Usain Bolt’s disqualification – how can he excuse his breaking at the start – comeon – the man has a good .4sec over the rest of the field – he had time to have a piss and still beat the opposition –

    This is a scam – he offered or bookmakers got to him – 10’s on or whatever it was – there is a lot of money to be made shaving that close to the moral line – and to do it by disqualification – his pride was kept – he was not beaten – and the bookies were again rollin’ in the hay …

    Comeon Rookie-Bookie how do you explain the ‘fix’ factor in you odds?

    Firecracker …

  3. Rookie Bookie
    August 29, 2011 at 8:23 am

    There are many sports I do not pay attention to gambling on. Fixes have occurred through out time, and the concept of fair and unbiased somewhat of an oxy moron.

    Every time I get a wish it is for the Sunday paper before the first race on a Saturday. I can not address the 5th dimension. I will leave that to Einstein

  4. Firecracker
    August 29, 2011 at 9:10 am

    Confucious says – he who trys to screw the world – might just lose his ding-a-ling in doing so –

    The ‘fix’ in sports, horse and other betting mediums is as old as Moses – always bought about when pohibitive odds are displayed –

    For example – Canterbury trailed Newcastle 22-6 at half time and looked to be already on the end of year holiday – odds of 10/1 were around for them to win the game at half time – the form reversal in the 2nd hald was unbelievable – and of course the rest is history and those who made the killing are taking 1st class holidays … it has to be seen as suspicious – did Newcastle lay down – laying the 10/1 means an awful big gamble in a 2 horse race – someone knew something –

    Nobody in their right mind could back Canterbury on what they saw in the 1st half … yet someone did …

  5. Rookie Bookie
    August 30, 2011 at 9:00 am

    It is quite bizarre where Fire Cracker wants to talk about the fix, and we have David Gallop on all the media last night saying the actions of the match review committee are more important to the image of the game than all other considerations. Gallop is the biggest prima donna, with Harrigan second and then you might consider players like Jarrod Hayne.

    TAB sportsbet has only framed grand final winner, and all other markets are suspended. Take Dally M by way of example Keiran Foran was considered to be short odds but now he is facing a week suspension or 2, what does that do. I have been tipping the Broncos coach all year for coach of the year. No matter what eventuates today and tomorrow he is looking good.

    As for the minor premiers and runners up Broncos should now be short against Manly, and the winners of game 3 and 4 in the first semi final will look good. That is the way the current market is framed. It also helps the 2 teams running 7th and 8th to survive into second week, and therefore closer to a serious finals berth.

    Souths loss of Inglis is massive. Particularly as the younger player replacements like Costigan are just not up to it. Souths are starting to look like parramatta or Cronulla where a couple of super stars can not win matches alone. All 17 positions are team.

  6. Rookie Bookie
    August 30, 2011 at 5:07 pm

    Now that both Melbourne and Manly have decided to minimise collateral damage, and save their argument for another day, things have quietened down. TAB Sportsbet have shaved Wests Tigers in the winner betting from 5 to 1 to 9 to 2 and blown Souths from 25 to 1 to 33 to 1. In doing so they have predicted that Wests will beat St George in the first final? There is another logic in that maybe Cowboys will beat Warriors in Round 26 and therefore see Saints more vunerable. Broncos are short against Manly, and the match is really of no importance now. Knights are now slight favourites over Souths, slight and TAB are not making a price on making the eight. Bad luck if your a doggy and believe in miracles and the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy and….

    Are Wests Tigers value against Sharks at $1.25? banker not sure, value no. Interestingly Wooden spoon play off is also even money. You really have to feel sorry for Parramatta. In the Penrith Saints match, historically you might expect Panthers to aim up. Maybe hysterically. Saints want a cruisy win where their backrow forwards actually get into the groove. The whips are cracking fella’s at a $1.15 I will use them as a banker if needs be.

    Through all this I decided to put a small wager on Hawthorn to win the flag at 9 – 2. They are even money to make the grand final with Collingwood at $1.30 and Geelong at $2.25. It really comes down to the first semi final between Collingwood and Hawthorn. Hawthorn and Broncos at 30 to 1 is interesting. $5.5 all up $5.5 returns me $30.25. A tick to me on the double. Yesterday I espoused don’t fall into the trap of seeing Broncos run as only 3 starts. After last night I now think Broncos are likely to get a rest in week 2. Both Manly and Melbourne are being tested for forward strength through the last 24 hours, where Melbourne have been found wanting in the last 2 matches, and Lussick will strip Manly of bench potential.

    It really is a bad state of affairs when TAB is not making prices on the Shute Shield in Sydney Rubgy. John O’Neill wake up. The lack of a provincial comp in Australia is just ?????

  7. Rookie Bookie
    September 1, 2011 at 11:33 am

    The suspension of Blair and deferment of Stewart to tonight creates a minimalist consideration, should Stewart be penalised with less than 5 weeks Stewart could play in the Grand Final, should Manly lose in the first week of the semi final. I have assumed he too will get 5 weeks.

    Therefore I have already stated that the contest between Broncos and Manly on Sunday arvo is priced as if a cakewalk for the Broncos. Just imagine if Manly can put up a show. It is Lockyer’s last club round, which is meaningless given he will be back at Suncorp the following Saturday, and possibly the one after that. Broncos should win, but Hasler will be using this weeks events to get something extra out of Manly. Broncos by 2 tries plus. Probability 75%

    Souths and Newcastle is an even money game. Many Souths supporters say GI has been a bad use of salary cap this year, but I disagree. Without GI, Souths will play like Newcastle. Rushed passes, high mistakes, many tries, poor defence.

    The sad part about several matches like Saints and Penrith is nothing to win but everything to gain. Saints need a solid hit out, convincing win. Penrith are basically grading for next year. Saints want a win by about 4 tries to one. Even better if Penrith are kept tryless. Penrith will go out to score tries. Simply no interest. Saints Head to Head but not much more. Probability 90%

    Wests v Cronulla the same. Wests must win to keep fourth spot, and Cronulla would love one more scalp, a likely grand finalist. Who from the Sharks is on a nudie run on Mad Monday? Wests were very convincing against Titans. Wests will win, but I can not see the margin. Probability 95%.

    The battle of the spoon. I have backed Parramatta to win the spoon and nothing changes. Should I lay off in an even money match. I am equivocating.

    Warriors and Cowboys, again even money best, where NZ at Mt Smart must be favoured.

    Bulldogs and Canberra, quite frankly who cares. The lack of consistency from both teams has seen them both whimper all year. Canterbury believe they can make the 8, yeah right.

    Roosters and Melbourne, Roosters will win. I have tipped them freely the last two weeks and they beat Sharks in the dying minutes and Parramatta in golden point. Melbourne need so badly to steady the ship, Cronk is back, but it is the forwards who narrowly won over a very inept Saints and got hammered by Manly.

    South of the border, Geelong and Collingwood. I will be taking some risks here with Geelong at $3.30 where I feel Pies are low 60% probability, will back Geelong anything better than $2.50. The comp is boring where Pies are $1.30 to make the GF and $1.75 to win it. Go the upset. Every other match is too lop sided except for North v Richmond. Both are playing great football, and North deserve favouritism but I rate 55%:45% and Richmond are rated 33% in bookmaking terms.

    Good punting and Happy hunting

  8. Rookie Bookie
    September 2, 2011 at 8:20 am

    The NRL site has Blair, Lussick and Stewart all out for three weeks. The mind boggles. For everything said about the past week, a punch, is not as dirty as so many other aspects of the game. The Striking charge has done much to change the game, and needs to be seen in perspective. On Wednesday Blair will not play for the Storm again. Today on face value we could get a replay of Melbourne Manly in either a preliminary final or the Grand Final. I truly think the book making agencies particularly those who sponsor the sport, will be having a quiet word (whinge) in David Gallops ear about how he whipped up too much brouhaha about being tough. In itself this has created uncertainty, and would reduce betting volume.

    Last night, it appeared that there was money for both Souths and Parramatta with the start. I simply don’t understand. In the Grand final why would anyone care about start? You win or you come second. Tonight, either Souths or Newcastle are finished for 2011. With Titans and Eels they are both finished for the season and the loser carries the spoon.

    Graeme “Sammy” Newman keeps talking up St Kilda. If they should beat Carlton this weekend they will host Swans next week. Should they lose, then Swans will get the home ground advantage. Newman bases his thoughts on the Saints turning around a 1 fro 8 in the early season. They have lost 9 in all and a draw. I don’t think Newman is that sharp but don’t dismiss his thoughts either. At times his quite the fox.

    Happy punting and Good hunting

  9. Rookie Bookie
    September 3, 2011 at 8:54 am

    You make your own luck. I backed Geelong all up the Eastern Suburbs chooks. I am not that confident the Chookies. Geelong is the only team to have lowered Collingwood’s colours this year, twice. It put chance back into the equation and now won’t it be nonsense when Hawthorn wins the flag over Geelong. Real Shakespearian Greek Tragedgy. I am foreseeing Collingwood v Geelong in the preliminary Final week three.

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