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EYE-BALL’s Rookie Bookie – The Grand Final Quinella will be easy to spot after Round 25

August 23, 2011
EYE-BALLsRookieBookie
Title:
The Grand Final Quinella will be easy to spot after Round 25
Saints Dragons finishing in 5th or 7th spot on the ladder is real dynamite. To analyse the make up of the final series, who finishes 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th is critical.This coming weekend there are 3 critical match ups. They are Saints v Warriors, Melbourne v Manly and Broncos v Rabbitohs. Then the following weekend we have Manly and Broncos and Cowboys v Warriors.

If I was to assume 2 wins for Saints (Warriors & Penrith) and Wests Tigers (Titans and Sharks) and one each for Warriors (Cowboys) and Cowboys (Sharks), (it is not possible to predict – use a decision tree with probabilities) then 2 probables with another possible;

  • 4th v 5th Tigers v Saints. Played in Sydney. Anyone’s guess, Wests
  • 3rd vs 6th Broncos v Warriors. Broncos advance at Lang Park.
  • 2nd v 7th Manly v Cowboys, Manly
  • 1st v 8th Melbourne v Newcastle in Melbourne. Melbourne. (Souths may replace Knights).

or

  • 4th v 5th Warriors v Tigers. Played in NZ
  • 3rd vs 6th Broncos v Saints.
  • 2nd v 7th Manly v Cowboys, Manly
  • 1st v 8th Melbourne v Newcastle in Melbourne. Melbourne. (Souths may replace Knights).

the other possible is based around Cowboys winning against Warriors, and Warriors winning against Saints, which would see;

  • 4th v 5th Tigers v Warriors. Played in Sydney
  • 3rd vs 6th Broncos v Cowboys.
  • 2nd v 7th Manly v Saints,
  • 1st v 8th Melbourne v Newcastle in Melbourne. Melbourne. (Souths may replace Knights).

Manly could lose 2nd to Broncos. In Round 12 after State of Origin 1 Manly won 34 -10 where Anthony Griffin was criticised for resting his stars. Which ever way you go, it is likely Melbourne get the week off in week 2, with either Broncos or Manly likely to also get a week end off. It tends to also suggest that Newcastle and team 6 or 7 will be eliminated quickly. Probably Cowboys.

Saints showed enough last Friday, to suggest they are not done for yet, however their string of narrow losses in the second half of this years minor premiership would suggest they are highly unlikely to win 3 consecutive finals to make the GF. Gasnier will lift the Saints when he returns.

After round 25 we will have a much clearer picture.

Good Hunting and Happy Punting

PS put 5 bob on Broncos Coach to win coach of the year. Cowboy’s Henry is also an outside chance, but that is conditional upon Cowboys going well in next 2 weeks.

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  1. Rookie Bookie
    August 23, 2011 at 9:42 pm

    Melbourne Storm have lost to NQ Cowboys in Round 3 34 – 6 to NZ Warriors in Round 7 18 -14 and Canberra Raiders in Round 10 by 20 -12

    Manly Sea Eagles lost to Storm in Round 1 18 – 6 to Souths in Round 4 by 32 – 30 to NQ in Round 8 by 22 – 20 to Saints by 24 – 6 in Round 16 and to West Tigers by 14 -12 in Round 21

    Broncos have lost to NQ Cowboys by 16 – 14 in Round 1 To Melbourne Storm in Round 9 by 29-22 to Penrith Panthers in Round 10 by 33 -10 to Manly by 34 – 10 in Round 12 to Souths in Round 16 by 16 -12 and Melbourne Storm again in Round 20 by 26 – 6.

    Warriors lost first 3 matches this year, there was Parramatta Eels by 24 -18, then West Tigers by 20 -12 then St George Dragons by 25 -12 then Manly by 20 -10 in Round 6 Eastern Suburbs Chooks 13 – 6 in Round 13 West Tigers in Round 14 by 26 -22 then North Queensland by 30 -10 in round 15 then Melbourne 16 – 8 in Round 16 North Qld again in Round 18 by 22 -12 and Broncos by 21 – 20 in Round 21.

    Tigers lost to Cabterbury Bulldogs in Round 1 by 24 -14 the Easts Chooks in Round 4 by 24 – 6 then Titans in Round 6 by 20 -14 then Broncos by 31 -18 in Round 8 to Souths 29 – 18 in round 10 to St George in Round 12 to Melbourne Storm in Round 15 by 12 – 4 and Parramatta Eels in Round 18 by 22 to 6.

    Cowboys have been defeated by Knights 34 – 22 in Round 2, Parramatta 22 – 20 in Round 4 by St George in Round 9 by 22 – 8 to Manly by 24 to 4 in Round 14, to Penrith in Round 16 by 30 -20 to Wests by 38 -18 in Round 19 to Dogs in Round 22 by 14 -6 to Broncos by 34 -16 in Round 23 and Souths by 26 to 24 in Round 24.

    Saints record is fairly well recognised, and Knights and Souths losing record are both fairly long.

    Point is Melbourne have only been defeated by 2 teams in the top 8. Manly’s record is not within coo-ee, nor Broncos. Warriors have only defeated Melbourne amongst the top 4 finalists. Wests are the most inconsistent, losing quite often to teams not in the finals, and a fairly impressive record amongst top 4. Cowboys on there day are very good, and suffered two of their defeats when Thurston was out for 5 weeks after State of Origin 3.

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting

  2. Rookie Bookie
    August 24, 2011 at 3:17 pm

    With prices now quoted, there are some very interesting prices.

    The first is West giving Titans 21 1/2 start. Wests are not playing 80 minute football. They let Parra back into last match rather than go on with it.

    Next is Tatters v Chooks, Parramatta are favourites. The tri colours get 2 1/2 start, where Carney remains on notice. I think Chooks should be favourites.

    Next is Dogs v Knights. Dogs season is over. Commentators say they have an outside chance, they need more than luck they need a miracle in points for and against. Newcastle get 2 1/2 but even juicier is $2.15 head to head. Knights are still expected to make the 8.

    I was wanting to back Canberra but will not accept accept conceding 5 1/2 or take $1.50. I expected Penrith to be favourites in a relatively close match.

    NQ should account for Cronulla but 16 1/2 start is also rich. No bet.

    Broncos and Souths is probably about right. I am so long Souths, I can’t afford to further back them, but am not able to lay off on Broncos at $1.53.

    Lastly for the matches that really matter, Manly v Melb and Saints v Warriors. Melbourne without Cronk and Saints get Gasnier back. Melbourne defeated Saints last week end and need this match. Melbourne are basically giving their back up cimbinations some real big time experience. I think Melbourne are value at $2.15 and Warriors at $2.60.

    Bankers are West Tigers and NQ but I will not be playing much of that strategy again until next season.

    In the Rugby just get on Australia, I will not take profit by backing NZ at $1.50.

    Good Punting and Happy Hunting

  3. Rookie Bookie
    August 26, 2011 at 8:10 am

    Things are quiet. Nothing really to report, that has not been said.

    The chooks cut Nate Myles and fined him, and Carney remains on notice. I predicted the Myles scenario, but the Carney joke is destabilising. I do not see what they may hope to achieve. I feel there real issue is the know they won’t be using him in 2012 but don’t want him playing against them. I still believe they represent value over Parramatta.

    In other betting, selections or availability continue to affect betting, and they shouldn’t. If Melbourne can not cover the loss of Cronk when they have only lost 3 matches this year, well. How good are Manly? We will see. I see this as an even money match. Both teams know the importance. Melbourne are minor premiers, and from second Manly must establish their credentials.

    The same cuts for Warriors Saints. Saints have Gasnier back, and played in Wollongong, but Warriors have so much riding on the game. Their forward play can be devastating. Again this is an even money match.

    The other monster match is Broncos v Souths. Here Asotasi will not play???? Broncos should be slight favourites 10 to 9 on, 5 to 4 is too short. Broncos will take one week at a time, but Manly the following week is more important. It is logic like that which helps teams like Souths, who are on a tightrope. No slips.

    The other interesting thought is West Tigers can overhaul the Warriors for and against advantage, hence giving Titans 21 and half start. Wests do not play that way.

    Beyond this, my only other real interest is Wannabies. The AFL is too predictable, and other league matches are just trials for 2012. Interesting to note in AFL how to obtain value punters go 4 quarters predictions. In a lop sided match like Collingwood v Freo I fail see how going Pies/Pies/Pies/Pies can add value. Picking Freo to play a good quarter is risky particularly say the 3rd if they were down by 50 at half time, therefore alternating could only work early say draw or Freo in the first quarter. I will have to study it harder.

  4. Rookie Bookie
    August 27, 2011 at 12:29 pm

    Easts got home in extra time, poor old Parra – ma – tatter. 4th golden point game this year, for 3 golden point losses and a golden point draw. Plus the wooden spoon.

    Manly and Melbourne, Manly have the bragging rights and by halftime had the match. The judiciary is between a rock and a hard place. That is now two week-ends when Melbourne were shown up, as being not so unstoppable. When Cronk returns we will see. Foran went particularly well, and I thought Melbourne were seeking the stink. They lost the fight and the match.

    Tonight, in the Tri nations all the punters are calling for All Blacks by 2 to 5. I am still very keen on the Australian home ground advantage. The stats don’t back it up but who cares. Heavy rain is predicted and a draw sees NZ win. It will be still in play right to the death.

    What really gets me, is the best match of the weekend is Saints v Warriors, and it is on Fox from 2pm tomorrow played at Wollongong. It should have been on Channel 9 last night instead of Eels v Chooks. Issue is Channel don’t normally get good ratings with NZ. Should NZ win and next week secure 4th spot against Cowboys then 1st semi should be played against Tigers in Auckland on the opening week of the RWC, on the Friday night. Even better should they win, Saints will be drawn against Manly in the first Semi Final. If Manly were to come through Melbourne Broncos and Saints (possibly Cowboys) then with a week off they will be competition favourites. They won’t have any of my money on them.

  5. Rookie Bookie
    August 28, 2011 at 12:38 pm

    I need to go back to the GF of ’84 when Doggies downed raging favourites Saints 7 – 6 or Let’s Elope Cup of 1991 to compare last nights result. By 7.30 pm last night Australia was offered at $2.75 to win the Rugby, such was the over belief in the All Blacks invincibility.

    Anyway with those generous odds I loaded up some more Canterbury Bulldogs to win the second half all up the Wallabies. I will bank some profit 75% and parlay the other 25% into bets not yet fully thought through. More on that thru the week.

    Australia won the Hakka, NZ were despondent, and Australia paid no attention. The writing was on the wall. I could not even nominate a man of the match. If I didn’t have substantial money involved I would have watched the league. It was boring beyond belief. As for the world cup, you would need to think NZ, in NZ but they have a long history of choking at RWC and do not represent any value whatsoever. My Dad would love to get union supporters going with the statement “possession does not matter in Rugby”. He was referring to to kicking for line outs and releasing the ball in rucks. Anyway

    Cronulla was another great result, and I just can not believe the Newcastle Knights. Nothing has really changed, but they can not be serious the way they played in the second half last night. What is the point in making up the numbers in NRL finals when you represent easy cannon fodder for Melbourne in the first semi final. Melbourne would prefer a serious trial, given they earn a week off and we will not know their chances. Back whoever appears likely to play Melbourne in the Preliminary final. They don’t have enough quality forwards to go on with it.

    Cowboys will aim up against Warriors next week end, and trying to assess this afternoons match between Saints and Warriors is just too hard. Warriors to win both, but don’t get in front of myself. Same cuts for Souths. What will Broncos do to contain Dave Taylor? If they over mark him it makes GI and Luke Burgess and Dylan Farrell look good. Rumour has it John Sutton is out, two broken bones in his hand.

    Go the Rabbits and go the Warriors.

  6. August 28, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    Great tipping Rookie-Bookie – however I have to disagree on the HARKA – it was one of the best I’ve seen – perhaps that was the problem – the emotional drain spent in producing the HARKA cost the energy needed to deal with Australia.

    It was a great game – and big advertisement for the Game – bring on the World Cup …

  7. canada goose
    February 16, 2012 at 1:06 pm

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