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EYE-BALL Opinion – True Leadership – Australia is still to experience it the way it was meant -

The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2

Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts:


- 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today ..


- 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful -
– Jackie Evancho -
– With Talent like this there is always amazement … enjoy -

- 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice -


- 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government -


- 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds -


- 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was …


- 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans -


- 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy -


- 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her …


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts:

click here …


Title:
– True Leadership -
- we are yet to experience the way it was meant to be -
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 6th June 2013 |
Leadership is on the mind constantly – in recent times it is the lack of that prompts concern and angst.

Who among our previous Leaders understood Australia – all of Australia, its People, its Industry, its desires, its resources, its indigenous occupiers, the island context, the convict heritage, the Head of State concept,  there is a need to embrace and understand it all before anyone can hope to satisfy the needs of the Nation.

Walking backwards -

  1. Gillard – the worst experiment of a PM in the history of the Nation
  2. Rudd – ego driven with a vision that floated with no underbelly support
  3. Howard – a man trapped in his 70’s mandate to break the Unions and clean up the waterfront -
  4. Keating – a maverick with vision that had us on the right track until his contempt for anyone who disagreed with him caused a thud
  5. Hawke – a Unionist with vision but his need to be loved gave him weakness
  6. Fraser – a stuffshirt born of privilege who could never get the people to like him
  7. Whitlam – another maverick in a hurry with radicals all around him
  8. Gorton, McMahon, Holt – all bit part players who never attained any continuity nor gave us direction during those Vietnam years …

None of the above Prime Ministers offered Australia anything other than party politics – some did tried to be different but were frustrated by factional structures and individual ambitions.

An observation might be that none truly governed for Australian’s, and that is an extreme failing in the choices Australian’s had to choose from.

The people have to have confidence in their Leader – confidence as different to party loyalty – a belief that they have some idea in how to run a Nation as opposed to beating the other side with opposing positions and pistols drawn …

Bi-Partisan support is a must if Government is to get the respect of the people – without it the Nation is divided and that can never be a good thing.  When was the last time that Question Time showed genuine respect for the other side … both sides are guilty – all are guilty …

Policy on Immigration, Indigenous affairs, Defence, National Security, Health, and Education – the policy for each of these areas should all be agreed to via  bi-partisan cooperation.   Australia’s interests are damaged if both sides fight and don’t agree in these areas, and the public brawling over one another’s deficiencies divide us further.

Having two mainstream Political Party’s that form our choices for Government – one who supports the working class, the other the employers and Business sector create the divide.

Neither will ever come together to unite the Nation.  Our convict heritage is entrenched in our belief in the ‘haves’, and ‘have nots’ – and that cultural handicap is with us forever …

Politician’s created and foster the divide, and as each side gets a stint at the helm – the trenches on both sides become more engrained – it’s a WWI thinking and the Leaders and their party powerbrokers have the same General’s perspective as they did in WWI – sheer insanity in their belief that their way is the only way …

The National Party have align with the Liberals to help out farmers and the like … but as Australian’s we need to know that who ever is in power will have all our backs and Govern for the whole of the Nation – and not for the secular groups that fund their election campaigns – i.e. Unions and Big Business …

We are no closer than we were 100 years ago to evolving as a Global Democracy whilst our Leaders continue to have these selfish party instincts – to reject everything a Government proposes when in Opposition, and/or a Government who don’t give a shit about what the other side cares about – nothing will change.

As an example – nobody can say that this current Government is not the worst in living memory – neither side would pour water on the other if they were on fire … in most cases they would both light the fires …

Watching Senate Hearings, the HOR and the Upper House give us good reason to blame our Leaders for the divide created … and it will take a Leader with a vision 10 times what Gillard or Abbott offer to make this Nation come together.

The re-emergence of the Republic debate in recent days showing Swan and Turnbull holding hands selling a joint message about becoming a Republic is a distraction and an example of selfish interests.

Neither thinks the other worthy in any other forum and is an example of the gross hypocrisy on display in our so called Democracy every day of the week.

The attacks in the House this week by the Government against State Governments who don’t support the Gillard Gonski plan is another example of how divided politics and policy has become.

Gillard threatens to punish States who do not agree with her plan – as if her plan is the best and only plan … the hubris in that ultimatum is the example of how divided the Nation has become and no election result will meld it back together again.

The Abbott Government are just as hellbent on their choices and it will be more of the same and that is the wrong.

What Leader can get us past this party politics divide … what Leader will yield and extend an open hand to the other side for better Government?

The minority Government of the last three years was an experiment in bi-partisan politics – the Greens, The Independents, all had their price to support the Party they supported to form Government.  It was not a willing agreement because both extracted financial and policy gains in trade for their coercion … bribes and payoffs by another name.

Democracy is Government of the people – and putting the Greens with 11+% of the vote in a position to demand the ‘Carbon Tax’ to do a deal for Gillard to form Government – how is that Government of the people … Green voters got their want – but they represent 11+%  of the vote – the informal vote was higher in the 2010 election.   How does that serve the will of the people?

Wilkie was offered a $billion hospital – Windsor and Oakeshott had their hands out as well … and all that has got us is three years of the worst Government outcome possible…

As the Nation limps to a September election – people believe relief will embrace them … it will be more of the same and within six months it’ll be everybody complaining about Abbott’s choices …

There is an option – make ‘None of the Above’ the most popular vote and have our political leaders forced to accept change – if enough people make the statement that they don’t support either side of the political equation – it will force change … that might take a decade to get right … but that beats $100’s billions of ALP debt and $100’s billions of Coalition cuts and the like as both sides square up against one another …

Surely the divide is a place where all Leaders should meet and talk policy – not the powerbrokers and special interest groups wanting favours … policy should be about what is best for the majority, not the minority …

Many will say this opinion is naive – and perhaps it is.  To think that Political Parties can be aligned on common interests – would that not be a great thing … please think a little deeper first before you throw out the messenger before you really understand the message …


Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thankyou.


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.

Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s


The EYE-BALL Opinion …

EYE-BALL Opinion – The Gender Debate and “Mandated Elevation”

June 4, 2013 Comments off
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Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts:

- 30th May – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today ..


- 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful -
– Jackie Evancho -
– With Talent like this there is always amazement … enjoy -

- 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice -


- 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government -


- 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds -


- 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was …


- 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans -


- 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy -


- 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her …


- 25th Apr – Prime Minister “JEZEBEL” - Does she deserve the Respect of the People? -


- 24th Apr – The Australian’s Hedley Thomas & Friends – Still hunting down Gillard over the AWU Scandal -


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts:

click here …


Title:
– The Gender Debate -
- and “MANDATED ELEVATION” -
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 4th June 2013 |
The gender equality debate has raged for generations and continues to do so.  In that timeframe an outsiders perspective might advocate that men have allowed themselves to be seduced by the fairer sex to help the feminist movement move forward.

It is that ‘seduction’ that fosters a thought that as women use their womanly favours to get what they want – logic allows the opinion that the feminist agenda and its ‘privilege creep’ is a result of that ‘seduction’ and begs the question as to how far it will go.

That advancement has sometimes been achieved through sheer intimidation,  open and militant threats to withdraw sex within marriage, and other formats all aimed at making men feel uncomfortable with their lot and their assertive controls over women.

History shows the gender battle has been forged by some outstanding feminists with policy platforms that could not be argue against.   It’s was always a yield based on a logic to ‘keep the peace’ – and to ‘not upset the women’ … it was in many ways a pity agreement formed from a man’s perspective to keep women happy.

Was that man’s guilt at having it too good – or was it a simple way to get their women back into bed willingly?

This advancement has come far – women are now the deciding force in all western elections – it is where media campaigns are targeted, won and lost.

Politicians now live and die on the will of women voters as they vote for charm and charisma above policy and logic – WOW – did those words just come forward or were they formed as a part of a inner belief?

Generally – men have cowered from the advance – they are simpletons and they enjoy their sex willingly offered as opposed to begrudgedly yielded.

Imagine if the ‘right to vote’ was refused and was still the case today – stupid, ridiculous you might advocate …but reflect for a moment – how has giving women the voting changed society, changed the way our Governments function?  Every female Leader in State and at the Federal level has been kicked from office – assuming Gillard is headed the same way come September 14th.

How many States have given a women a 2nd chance – none that I know of – Kirner, Lawrence, Bligh, Keneally – all gone and their States have never had a female Premier since.

The current Tasmanian Premier may become the exception … ?

But rest assured – it will be a long time before Australian’s elect another female PM … we never really elected this one and the way she became PM is a stigma on all female politicians.

This post is not meant as an opinion story about whether the question on equality is right or wrong, the question is about a subject that was raised in a story published a few days ago – ‘mandated elevation’ …

Read story below:

‘Glacial’ gender move may lead to quotas


| Author: John Durie | Date: 3rd June 2013 | Link to On-Line Story. |

GLOBAL funds management giant BlackRock has warned Australian boards that their “glacial” moves to gender equality at board and executive levels risk the imposition of mandatory quotas and other regulations.

Pru Bennett, head of corporate governance for the fund’s Asia-Pacific operations, issued the warning after her second annual survey testing progress towards meeting the new Australian Securities Exchange governance standards.

“Less than 50 per cent of ASX 200 companies disclosed the existence of diversity programs and 65 per cent of companies made just perfunctory disclosures,” Ms Bennett said.

The survey, to be publicly released today, follows the report in The Weekend Australian from the group Chief Executive Women bemoaning the lack of progress.

Just 17.5 per cent of non-executive board members were women in February this year, up from 14.4 per cent last year.

The survey shows 80 per cent of men appointed to boards in the last year had no previous board experience, compared with 57 per cent of women.

New female appointees tended to be moving from one to several board seats.

Chief executives have a walk-up start to being appointed to boards, yet the proportion of females in senior executive ranks in big companies peaked at 12.1 per cent in 2006, before falling to 10.1 per cent. The survey shows only 30 per cent of companies made reference to pay equity in their reports at a time when starting salaries for women stood at 91 per cent of male salaries.

Last November, the gender pay gap stood at 17.6 per cent. The survey says: “Given this significant difference we would have expected more companies to have included pay equity in their measurable objectives.”

Ms Bennett singled out Mirvac as one of the best companies in reporting and explaining its diversity policies due to the commitment of chairman James MacKenzie and chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz.

Others providing good disclosure included CSL, Computershare, Mirabela Nickel, Pacific Brands, Telstra, Westfield, Woolworths and Woodside, she said.

“BlackRock expects large companies should be able to explain their diversity policies, why they were introduced and how they assisted long-term value creation,” Ms Bennett said.

The ALP have a gender mandate that wants to have women make up 40% of all ALP elected members.

Surely a mandate in this context is flawed – surely the best person, female or male should be the bench mark.  If not – how many males who bust a gut to get ahead and strive are beaten by a mandated quota of female appointments.   Is that not a reverse sexism argument.

Surely our society has evolved to a point where women want the need to be embellished beyond their abilities.

The concept of total equality is misguided in its origins – there are things women can do that no man can ever do and vice versa. Women and Men are not the same there are differences, strengths and weakness’, genes and societal differences, and despite all the advances made to try and bridge the equality gap – are men and women any happier with their lot?

It is a debate akin to handling a live grenade with the pin pulled – ask women if they are happier wearing the responsibilities they now bear …  single motherhood is at its highest level .. why?

Is the feminist movement impacting on mothers and their role as nurtures – instincts that men will take another 100 years or so to figure out …

This is born of ‘Political Correctness’ and it’s a soft-cock debate – if men refused women the vote back in the early 1900’s would society be as promiscuous, as materialistic, as selfish, or as destructive when it comes to divorce and separation … women seem to be driving all these issues.

Would men have become cowards to women’s issues as they now do – none will stand up and say what they feel for fear of retribution as a sexist …

Would they have confusion issues surrounding women as their bosses, women challenging the role normally played by fathers and husbands, and would men be second guessing themselves over their abilities to satisfy their women given the expectations of women these days?

A man now has to think twice before he bats an eye at a women – yet women take their partners at will … men are scared of women who are assertive and can that be a good thing society …

The wheel has turned and for it to be OK to accept and expect mandated elevation based on gender, then that is another reason for man to feel despised and persecuted …

Where can this end – and there is only one answer … badly for children and their ability to understand 1000’s of years of evolved society … all ditched within a 100 years …


Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thankyou.

Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.

Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s


The EYE-BALL Opinion …

EYE-BALL Opinion – Revisiting the Past – A post some two years ago has relevance today …

May 30, 2013 Comments off
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2

Latest ‘EYE-BALL Opinion’ Posts:


- 13th May - Just Stunningly Beautiful -
– Jackie Evancho -
– With Talent like this there is always amazement … enjoy -

- 11th May – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice -


- 8th May – Truthful and Honest Government – the expectation of a Nation as opposed to – Corrupted integrity and Dishonest Government -


- 6th May – Gillard’s Real Problem – a truthful expose on her past deeds -


- 5th May – The Drugs in Sport Scandal - it’s not about the DRUGS – it never was …


- 5th May – Free-to-Air TV and NRL Broadcasts – it’s definitely not about pleasing the fans -


- 4th May – Truth and Clarity of facts count – the real cost of Gillards asylum seeker policy -


- 27th Apr – Gillard’s long walk of shame is almost nigh – her past is about to catch up with her …


- 25th Apr – Prime Minister “JEZEBEL” - Does she deserve the Respect of the People? -


- 24th Apr – The Australian’s Hedley Thomas & Friends – Still hunting down Gillard over the AWU Scandal -


To see more EYE-BALL ‘Opinion’ posts:

click here …


Title:
– Revisiting the Past -
- A post some two years ago has relevance today …
| Author: EYE-BALL Opinion | 30th May 2013 |
There has been some intelligent comments in recent days on a post some two years ago – it is appropriate that the post be revisited again –  the post can be read in its original format here


Author: EYE-BALL GURU

Date: 20th june 2011:

Title: Australian Labour Party Government – Report Card -

Part 2

Link to Part 1 of this story

DEBT is the disease that is killing Greece – it’s no secret and it will be what kills all of Europe – America and it will eventually kill Australia and the rest of the World as well. The DEBT relevant to this global disease causing the current global instability in Financial Markets and civil unrest – is not consumer DEBT – not at least at the outset – but Government accumulated DEBT and largely incurred during the on-going GFC bailout of the Financial System.

That BAILOUT is just another gusher being treated with band-aids – and adds to the same type of ‘prop up the markets at any cost’ fix they have treated the markets with over the last 25 odd years – since Oct ’87 in fact. Since this time the markets have endured a series of minor surgery type fixes – all weakening the foundational structure of the market and the purpose they were designed to benefit.

All these minor patch-ups have done is to weaken the integrity and honour of what the market’s once traded upon.

The latest round of DEBT refinancing that caused the Greek financial crisis and civil unrest – and the domino impact of what is to follow – is not based Consumer DEBT related – it will become so as a major contributor as jobs are lost and debts become the first issue that desperate families walk away from. The cause of what is about to happen is Government DEBT – largely incurred during the GFC bailout of the Financial System 2007-2009 and still ongoing.

That BAILOUT was just the final straw as a gusher that could not be fixed with band-aids. The soft landing treatments Governments have applied to the Markets over the last 25 odd years – since Oct ’87 – have prepared – when transplant and major the globe for what is about to happen. It is too late to perform major surgery – the globe is dead on the table and nothing can save it -

There are many GREECE like happenings going on at the moment – there is one in Australia – the bunker mentality of the Australian Government since Rudd’s dismissal – that mushroom think tank where mistakes become self perpetuating – it all appears as a twilight response where nothing happening around the Government in global terms causes any concern domestically because they believe they are immune.

Since the GFC hit – the continuing monumental stuff-ups really do tell us that nobody is smart enough to fix the domestic and global issues now confronting us. It will only be a matter of time when the Nations of the world yell -

… save yourselves because we can’t help you anymore …

When the ALP report card since they came to power in late 2007 is reviewed – the Nation was without Federal Government Debt – Inflation and GDP numbers all within the top 10 Nations of the World – a currency that had Australian Industry competitive on the World stage – and when we look at the failures since ALP took office – both the RUDD and GILLARD Governments – they view the issues as GFC related and response failures as opposed to Government failures. I say that if Government had of made better decisions – we would be in far better shape than we are now. This Nation faces a lifestyle ending conundrum over the next 5-10 years that printing more money won’t solve.

Let us look at some of the items included in this report card -

  • Handling of illegal immigrants – FAIL

The ALP intentions were to soften the Howard game plan – to try a more humane response and they have struggled to truly understand the problem from the illegal immigrant perspective and adequately allocate the resources to come up with a plan that works for how Australians feel about this issue – all this Government has offered is band-aid type fixes that have become woefully exposed as inadequate.

  • The Mining Resource Rent Tax – FAIL


An attempt at a quick money grab from an industry in overdrive and enjoying ‘boom’ times.

The driving force behind this mining boom is China and to keep up with China demand – Mining exporters are shipping every tonne possible to pay off the Project Financing deals done with Chinese Bankers -

It’s a catch 2 scenario and the Australian Government have realised that the appreciation in the A$ has reduced Government Tax revenues from export incomes and this TAX becomes part of the Government’s solution to claw back TAX revenues.

A truly pathetic response when all the Government had to do was introduce an excise duty payable by the importer to generate direct tax revenues to offset the A$ rise – this also saves the Exporters from having to pare down profits for what is essentially another ‘royalty’ tax being imposed by the Federal Government. – this Government never thought to the long-term issue of taking measures to devalue the A$ and the future legacy to all Australians when our resources are exhausted …

  • The Home Insulation scheme – FAIL

Several deaths because the scheme was implemented hastily and many business used unemployed labour and did not train the employees – safety issues were not considered before the program was implemented – the wind back and inspections to check the installations have cost $100’s million more – the benefits are minor and many house fires into the future may well be blamed and cause by this total failure of a scheme – total cost of scheme estimated – $2-$3 billion.

  • The Schools Building Program – FAIL


Proven to have been a highly wasteful spend of public monies – having the States dish out the monies via tendering processes to many ALP friends – saw massive over spends in many schools that could have be built for a fraction of monies paid. Government failed to put in place measures where accountability for tendering process’ that saw competitive bidding as opposed to contracts being awarded on many other workable schemes. Amount involves in over spend – estimated at $1-$2 billion.

  • The Troops in Afghanistan – FAIL


Already a 10 year war and almost twice as long as WWII and WWI – in fact add WWI and WWII together and this WAR has lasted as long 27 Australian soldiers lives lost – 100’s injured and permanently maimed or injured – many thousands wearing the mental scars endured as a result of their time in foreign lands. Estimated cost to Defence Force budget – $1-$2 billion and still ongoing with estimates of being there for another 10 years. This policy is supported by both sides of Government. and is see as a trade deal with the US as an ally.

  • The NBN rollout – Forecast Result – FAILURE


Estimated $43 billion spend over 5 odd years to install Australian Wide internet backbone – this scheme was initially a part of the GFC response spending. Since it was first announced some 2 odd years ago – it is only now that the fibre optic cabling is being rolled out on the mainland. Several hundred million has been spent to date and there has been great criticism on the fat-cat salaries [reported as above $400k] – being paid to ALP appointed CEO’s and other senior appointments.

This program continues to meet opposition – the spend involved is huge in that it adds to the massive debt this Government has already spent in efforts to combat its expectations from the GFC fallout. The reality is that this Government spent to create jobs when the rest of the world spent to save their Banks and Financial markets – that employment spent has only delayed the GFC impact as the Government is now backed itself into a corner stating that it will return the Budget back to surplus by 2013.

Whether the NBN continues in the same mold as originally budgeted is now a political time bomb as the Government faces a new election on so many issues it is fighting. WIth a majority of one – and that being the vote of the Independents – the Government is on a knife-edge in survival.

  • The 2008-11 Budgets – FAIL


Mr Swans attempt to paint a rosy picture for the 2011 Budget fooled nobody – but then even the Coalition could not make mileage out of it – both sides fail miserably when it comes to economic management. Previous Budgets were facing GFC fallout and spending was a priority – reform was not considered – and this has been the major failing of Governments around the world – must keep the economy ticking over – we need the tax revenue – so pump the economy and it’ll be alright and the next fella’s problem when it all comes unstuck … pathetic Governance …

  • The Minority Government – FAILING experiment…


The GREENS have won big as an outcome from the 2010 election. So have the Independents Mr Oakeshot and Mr Windsor. The PM Julia Gillard is so desperate to hold onto Government she did many deals to secure Government for the ALP. Her personal window of opportunity after her ascension to the top job at the beheading of her predecessor Mr RUDD – always made her hold onto power tenuous at best. 12 months on – her polls are worse then those of Mr RUDD at the time of his axing – her policy agenda has been one failure after another – she has a personal rating that has the ALP Members worried about an early election which is increasingly becoming more likely with every Gillard failure. And to top it all off – the Australian Taxpayers are now stuck with another ex-Prime Minister who will enjoy lifetime pension that costs the Australian Taxpayer about a A$million a year in perks and pension payments.

  • The Climate Change and Carbon Tax issue – FAIL


Starting with an unproven charter – and having back flipped twice already on the ‘moral challenge of the 21st Century – what chance does this Government have in regaining any high ground on this debate … millions have been spent on economic modelling and base line research to prove climate change and to answer this – the global opinion is still divided on a consensus opinion. The Carbon Tax policy of the ALP is being forced when the proof needed to convince the electorate of Climate change is still a very subjective issue.Why did the ALP abandon the Emissions trading Scheme – and go to the 2010 election based on a policy of a “NO CARBON TAX” …

  • The Emissions Trading Scheme – FAIL


Having convinced the Australian electorate to vote for the ALP in 2007 – based on the RUDD and ALP policy that Climate Change was the – ‘Moral Challenge of the 21st century’ – the Minister for Climate Change Penny Wong led the Copenhagen campaign – when that summit failed at almost every level – she came back home and began to empire build until the RUDD rollover. The Opposition also reneged on a deal done with the Government that saw Mr Turnbull rolled as Opposition Leader months earlier. If it was the moral challenge the ALP sold it as – why did they roll on their position so easily?

  • The Murray Basin Fix – FAILURE expected


Aleftover legacy from the Howard Government under the then Minister Malcolm Turnbull – and now an ALP problem under Minister Tony Burke. This environment induced problem seems to be a problem where no common ground solution can be found where all parties can be satisfied. The record floods up and down the eastern seaboard earlier this year saw flood waters flush out the Murray River basin and seen weirs and dams replenished. The Climate change debate is in front of the Murray River solution and now that the flood rains have eased the pressure – there is no longer the drive to take the radical measures that were being suggested.

  • The LIVE Livestock export Trade – FAIL


Successive Governments have been asleep at the wheel on the issue of how Australian Livestock are treated in foreign lands. The treatment of livestock as presented on 4 Corners two weeks ago drew great angst in the electorate and with livestock exporters. Minister for Trade – Craig Emerson has not been seen in this issue – Senator Ludwig – Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry – has been the sole public face on the Governments response. There is no excuse – a leftover policy from the Howard Government where the same inhumane treatment was happening – and now the same with the four year ALP Government – it was only through the 4 Corners program and exposure of the animal treatment that forced the Government to suspend live trade. The treatment of these animals has been known within Government for decades. They just believer out of sight – out of the public’s mind -

  • The Alco Pops Tax reform – FAIL


Thought up as a measure to stop teenage binge drinking – reversed after several months … the administration costs incurred by business to comply added to the cost of the program – it was an idea that was now fully understood – it had Independent support an the Government went along without really delving into the ‘binge drinking’ problem.

  • The RUDD HEALTH reform – FAIL


Major Health reform agreed to with the States [excluding WA] – and then dumped when RUDD was rolled over on by Gillard and her Factional Henchmen … $AMillions of Taxpayer funds were expended into this program before it was rolled out. There was support from all the Labour States with NSW holding our for a better deal. When the 2010 election came around the only state not on board was WA – then both Victoria and NSW Labour Governments were rolled after Gillard dumped the Health plan.

  • THE 1000 brightest Minds experiment – FAIL


Sounded all good at the time – but there has been no follow through – how many millions were spent on travel and accommodation to stage the conference … what ideas were implemented – what interface with the public came from the event – was it purely a PR experiment or were there too many ideas and to many with conflicting arguments to implement any of them. It has to be asked – what were the positives that came from this event that justified the taxpayer-funded expenses to stage the experiment.

  • The HOMELESS Solution – FAIL


RUDD had every ALP HOR Member attend a homeless shelter in their electorate in the first weeks of taking office and report back on their visit – failed to develop any policy to follow through on statements made during the election campaign – another visual policy that had no teeth – in fact – I would venture to say that the ALP members resented being told that they had to visit a homeless shelter and submit a report – perhaps the beginning of the end emerged from this single issue for Mr Rudd.

  • THE Indigenous Solution – FAIL


Again a dual Government issue – Either side had different views on the ‘SORRY’ statement – RUDD made such a fanfare event of the statement – and this rallies the population – but once again the follow through has been very light on the ground in real improvements to Indigenous Health – Education and social change. We think we know best how to solve problems that we initially created when we took over the lands and their wealth that belonged to the indigenous populations who occupied the land for 10’s thousands of years before we became convict inhabitants of these lands. Australia has much to repay the original inhabitants of what we now call home and the Australian way of life.

  • The CURRENCY Appreciation – FAIL

The Australian Treasury, the Reserve Bank and the Australian Government have done nothing to quell the International buying of the Australian Currency – the RBA has continually talked up its view that they want to increase Interest Rates at any opportunity – this has underpinned the currency and set a tone for strength that works against everything that Australia Commerce represents. Tourism relies on a cheaper currency – Mining and Agriculture exports have had their A$ revenues cut by 50% since the height of the GFC – the expensive currency drives consumers to off-shore markets to buy goods on-line.


As is always the case – the negatives are easy to remember – but there were some positives that this Author can recall -

  • The SORRY statement -
  • The rise in Pension payments -
  • The $1000 payment to all families during the GFC to boost Xmas sales in 2008 -

Please – post a comment to remind readers of any other positives the ALP Government has achieved in the four years it has been in office.

This REPORT card clearly gives the voter cause to look upon this Government as a Government who suffered many FAILURES – mind you if one was to have put the same test to the HOWARD Government – the result would have been the same. Howard’s Government were the SCROOGE’s in penny-pinching form everywhere across the welfare belt – sold of National Assets to fund their spending programs which over time where unwound by the ALP Government and policies that the electorate voted to have changed.

There is not a single Minister across the Governments front bench who has any Statesman like qualities – the only exceptions may be Mr RUDD and Mr SMITH … no wonder Australians love to detest our Political Leaders – but then again it you watch Question Time – you would know why they are held in such low esteem – they are the only ones who can improve their performance – else – all we can expect is a continuation in the deterioration of our Leadership and the plight of this Nation to deal with serious issues.

In the two years since – what has improved … it is a depressing assessment and no wonder Australia is angry …

I watched Question Time today – and Albanese’s childish behaviour when denying or accepting Tabled documents is indicative of everybody in the House – how many evictions … warnings … none have respect for the office or the Leaders sitting opposite one another.

Outside the House the hubris continued with Albanese and Gillard claiming moral ground on the electoral funding because Abbott renege … can’t they see that this bites them just as much … how blind these mice of men are …

Revolution is one answer – the election can’t come quick enough … how can a Nation focus on success with so much Leadership failure all around us.


Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please use/click on your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thankyou.


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.

Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s


The EYE-BALL Opinion …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report Part 1 -

May 18, 2013 4 comments
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Latest GURU Posts:


- 14th May – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government -


- 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making.


- 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up -


- 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -


- 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget  -
– A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report – Part 1 -
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 18th May 2013 |
Treasurer Swan’s  2013-14 Budget speech has been delivered, Mr Abbott’s reply likewise – the verdict is in the eyes of the beholder.

Swan’s ‘Groundhog Day ‘ promise of another surplus some years hence tests us all.

His creditability lies in tatters and he has again applied for another $50 billion credit over the forward estimates.

In reply – Abbott was slick, concise, and maintained his ‘small target’ image that so infuriates the ALP.   Abbott does not have to beat a drum, offer lollies, or make anything bigger that it has to be … come September it will all fall to the Coalition as the toxic ALP brand  drags itself over the cliff into the abyss.

Swan’s vision of Australia’s future is a fantasy of his own imagination,  ever hopeful the electorate will believe some time before the Sept ’14 election.

Gillard and company want the ‘cock-fight’, a gutter contest where they believe they can best Abbott. The electorate have turned off Labor causing the rant that beats to their angst.  They are a confused and manic mob probing for any leverage to engage an already disengaged public – the echo of the death-knoll sounds in the background as the funeral march as begun.

For any ALP message to penetrate, they have to first have to deal with the ‘creditability’ issues.   The Coalition advertising campaign will not let us forget the promised and failed surplus’ and more.

Swan’s current budget exposed all the ‘grave-holes’ prepared over the past six years and they have now became uncovered for all to see.  The task is how to link the ‘zombies’ lurking in the pathways that hold the keys that protect all these budget black-holes.

It is time to expose Swan’s PONZI scheme designed to defraud Australia under the guise of ‘Jobs Jobs Jobs’ and a lunacy that lies to protect itself from the truth.

Table 3 below helps reveal the numbers that entrap Swan in his past manipulations with the Budget forecast/estimate numbers – Swan has become good at moving them around and putting them back together every year to come up with a newer version that fits the political agenda and message for the time.

This fraud began in the turmoil of the GFC spend, and has continued ever since.

Unaccounted for spending across all the stimulus initiatives is still a matter not resolved, compounded by the Gillard agenda to socialise our political landscape.

Gillard has no financial kudos, she comes from the criminal side of ‘Lawyerville’ … and fraud is no stranger to her or a number of her AWU partners in crime.  What’s a few hundred $billion between comrades all from Union careers steering this Nation to a vision only shared by a small minority.

Gillard and her cronies are the apocalypse … they have hijacked traditional Labor values and voters are wise enough to see the future under a brazen hussy without a moral bone in her body.

But beyond the obvious, proof is needed to confirm the fraud … and it is contained in the Swan Budgets, their forecasts, and the reality of how those estimates and forecasts compare with the actual results.

The Result numbers don’t lie

Remember Swan’s 2012-13 budget surplus of $1.5 billion –  announced on the back of 4 consecutive record deficits,  i.e. 2008-09 -$31.3 billion, 2009-10 -$56.5 billion, 2010-11 -$51.1, 2011-12 -$47.0 billion, well the latest update after four revisions since Nov 2012,  is that the $1.5 billion surplus for 2012-13 will now be a $19.4 billion deficit.

In addition, remember these words spoken by Mr Swan in his Budget speech May 2012 -

The four years of surpluses I announce tonight are a powerful endorsement of the strength of our economy, resilience of our people, and success of our policies.

In an uncertain and fast-changing world, we walk tall — as a nation confidently living within its means.

This Budget delivers a surplus this coming year, on time, as promised, and surpluses each year after that, strengthening over time.

Those promised surpluses lay in tatters as Swans horror’s all come back to haunt him …

The forecast budgets for 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 all predicted as surplus’ 12 months ago, now have headline forecast results of:

  1. 2013-14 – $25 billion deficit,
  2. 2014-15 – $21 billion deficit,
  3. 2015-16 – $9 billion deficit,
  4. 2016-17 – $3 billion deficit,

…and Mr Swan now believes he can deliver a balanced budget in 2017-18.

The reality of these numbers are daunting in the backdrop of a global financial crisis where debt is the enemy.  Gillard and Swan have walked us to the edge of the abyss and they think they have done no wrong.  Swan so often uses the words ‘envy of the world’ when he talks about Australia’s economic numbers and the current debt/GDP levels.

The mind boggles at Swan’s flippancy and the post mining boom direction this Nation is headed toward.  The rest of the economy is already on life support due to inaction by both the Government and the RBA to do something to stem the impact of 10 years of high A$ value.

Where will Swan turn when the resource ‘cash and carry’ trade unwinds and capital flows out of Australia?  Why will his rabbit look like when interest rates begin to rise and revenues really do begin to fall away?

Swan predicted surplus’ in his first ever budget in May 2008 as follows:

  • 2008-09 – $23.6 billion,
  • 2009-10 – $20.9 billion,
  • 2010-11 – $20.5 billion, and for
  • 2011-12 – $20.5 billion.

These original forecasts predicted a cumulative surplus of $85.6 billion over the next four years.

The cumulative total of ‘actual’ Budget results since 2008-09 is a total of $205.3 billion in deficit’s and new debt.  That is a difference in ‘forecasts verses actuals’ through 2008-09 to 2011-12 of $290.9 billion.

That is a $12k+ spend for every man, women, and child in this Nation.

2012-13 was to be the return to surplus followed by another 3 years of surplus’ as Swan told us in May 2012.  Well the 2012-13 result is now forecast at $20 billion deficit with another three years or forecast deficits to replace the surplus’ Swan promised 12 months ago.

Swan wants to say that the Australia’s GDP/Debt ration is the envy of the world – without China buying our resources, we might not have that luxury … Swan does not get it … Howard Costello spent 10 years paying off the Hawke/Keating debt legacy, and then all Rudd, Gillard and Swan could do was open the credit card again.

There was reason in 2008-09 with the GFC threatening.  But by 2009-10 China had saved us yet the spend continued in even increasing budget deficits.

Swan, Wong, Gillard, and the other MP’s tasked with selling the Budget message, will only want to talk to questions on the future.  Yet – until The Government answers questions on why the Treasury modelling got it so horribly wrong, Swan and the Government’s creditability will be like the opinion poll forecasts … nada, nada, nada … no more thankyou …

In the ‘Budget Speech’ after-show media frenzy – and you really should see some of the ‘Front Page’ cartoons the morning after, ‘and to give you a glimpse two more have been pasted below – many thanks for the easy cut and past option from the Newspapers concerned, and to that end I have tried to accredit where possible…’

Some Levity … The Australian Front Page Post Budget morning:

The Courier Mail post budget:

Watching ‘News 24′ after Swan delivered his Budget,  I felt sick listening firstly to Swan, and then to Wong as they both provided their sales pitch and narrative to the budget just delivered.  Their version of the fraud was all about hard-selling the ‘revenue writedowns’ in efforts to rewrite history.

Reaction to the Budget from political experts, economists , and industry groups has been one of porous scepticism.  Commentators on the ALP loving ABC the next morning were fragile in their optimism … Swan’s creditability was not something they wanted to talk about at length.

The media had already focused their attention on Abbott’s reply … could they be more obvious … that Michael Rowlands is one heck of a goose …

All this ‘noise’ … and the most likely outcome is that Swan’s best efforts will sink faster than the ‘Titanic’ as the election rolls on and the polls decide Gillard’s and Swan’s fate well ahead of the election date.

Interestingly though – at the National Press Club address on the Wednesday after the Budget speech – Swan boldly stated that he expected the ALP to win the next election.  He commented on the continued ‘small rubber-ball’ target the Opposition Leader represents and that all the drama has been around the Government.

His performance at that National Press address and during the Q&A after was full of hubris and dismissive to say the least – questions with 3-4 prongs and taking 40-50 sec to ask were answered with one liners and one word responses.

It was contemptible and gave all the indication that the journo’s in attendance neither had the balls or the knowledge base to challenge Swan and put him down with questions that challenge everything he presents as factual.

End of Part I …

  • In Part II of this series – the Budget is further examined via the economic triggers that form the framework around the Treasury modelling …
  • The Hansard record of Swan’s Question time responses the day after the Budget are reviewed and analysed … and
  • The impact of Government stimulus on GDP growth and the unravelling of Australia’s fast GDP growth rates … and more …

Meanwhile some reading of the 2013-14 budget papers can be obtained via the links below.

The 2013-14 Budget: -

Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thank you


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.


The EYE-BALL Guru …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government -

May 14, 2013 Comments off
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Latest GURU Posts:


- 13th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making.


- 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up -


- 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -


- 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– When is Government a Business and -
– when is Government a Government -
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 14th May 2013 |
Talk for some time now from the Opposition Treasury spokesperson Mr Joe Hockey,  has been about the developed world facing the end of the era of ‘universal entitlement’.

Where does a Government get the ‘creds’ to measure its own responsibilities in business like terms when forecast revenues, budgets, and underlying debt become challenging?

Mr Hockey is heir to the Treasurer throne and will be the Treasurer in a few months.  Understanding his belief system is very important to what he will bring to the table as a Treasurer.

In a speech delivered a little over 12 months ago to the INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS in Londonlink to full speech – Mr Hockey spoke at length about the ‘era of entitlement’.

The speech is a road map to Hockey’s mindset about Government and its overriding responsibilities.

At face value the comments may seem naive and Liberal policy sabre rattling.   If Mr Hockey believes everything he said in his address, then that is a little frightening when we look at the developed world, the GFC after taste, the ongoing and unsolved global debt burden, and the extent of the people suffering under austerity measures.

Hockey’s vision can be seen as a Government trying to implement business type models and act like a business wanting to disengage from the true and overriding responsibilities of Government.  If that is overstated, then at the very least he wants to hit the reset button and allow a review on the real purpose of where Government sees itself into the future.

An example of Hockey’s belief system …:

“THE END OF THE AGE OF ENTITLEMENT”

ADDRESS TO THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS – LONDON

17 APRIL 2012

By: JOE HOCKEY MP


Introduction: …

“… So, ultimately the fiscal impact of popular programs must be brought to account no matter what the political values of the government are or how popular a spending program may be.

Let me put it to you this way: The Age of Entitlement is over.

We should not take this as cause for despair. It is our market based economies which have forced this change on unwilling participants. What we have seen is that the market is mandating policy changes that common sense and years of lectures from small government advocates have failed to achieve. And we have subsequently witnessed over the last twelve months a raging battle.

This has been a battle between the fiscal reality of paying for what you spend, set against the expectation of majority public opinion that each generation will receive the same or increased support from the state than their forebears.

The entitlements bestowed on tens of millions of people by successive governments, fuelled by short-term electoral cycles and the politics of outbidding your opponents is, in essence, undermining our ability to ensure democracy, fair representation and economic sustainability for future generations.” …

continues

Surely Mr Hockey understands that it is the politician who makes the promises to get re-elected, and then spends the money on policies to remain elected.   Does he suggest his Government will be different?

Identifying the problem does not solve the problem!!!

In contrast, my last few posts have taken Mr Swan out for a spin and proved his dunce-hat status when it comes to his ability to understand currency value, and its impact on the trade wars that exists and ignite around labour costs, the efficiencies of Industrial Law, and with a workforce and welfare receipent base all resistant to any form of wage/pension reductions.

Mr Swan’s answer has been to fund the revenue shortfall with new debt, and rather then rein in new spending, his Government has set the wheels in motion with more and new large ticket policies that will mortgage the Nation even further into the future.

Mr Hockey in his address above sees the madness in Swan’s logic and intent.  But then Mr Hockey swings the pendulum toward a commercial context and that puts his position as a politician serving the people,  at odds with the responsibilities of any true democratic Government.

It is only with a review of history that the mistakes made back then can be revealed in the present.

Howard’s middle class welfare spend is where the problems started and currently exist.  Having given that welfare help to people who did not really need it, how does a Government try to take it back from those who already have it.  And in the face of a GFC aftermath that has seen reduced work hours and the only real jobs growth in part-time employment.

For voters the choice is easy – give Gillard the reins and see the Nation become another Greece, or Spain within 3-5 years, of give the keys to Abbott, hoping and trusting his team know what they are doing.

Hockey’s Budget reply response on Thursday will be a real test for the ‘big’ now ‘much smaller’ man.  He is yet to shine on his own in matters of finance and Treasury.

His financial blueprint for an Abbott Government could set up an early election via a ‘no-confidence’ motion in coming weeks.

If he fails – it’ll be back to the drawing board and Mr Swan will get to swoon for a few more months – all to Australia’s detriment.

 

Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thank you


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.


The EYE-BALL Guru …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making.

May 12, 2013 6 comments
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Latest GURU Posts:


- 10th May – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up -


- 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -


- 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


- 31st Mar – The Cyprus Bail-out -


- 31st Mar – Australia’s Debt – and the idiots Managing the Treasury -


- 20th Feb – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – Part II – Entitlements and Allowances -


- 13th Feb – Australia’s Public Sector Remunerations Part I – Parliamentarians “Base-Salary” and “Additional” entitlements -


- 31st Jan – The Devil is in the Detail, there is none – Gillard chooses shock, awe & Spin over Policy -


- 23rd Jan – The Turmoil is Already here – We just have to accept what is coming -


- 22nd Jan – The Turmoil is beginning – Japan’s Economic Stimulus to tip the scales -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– Wayne Swan’s – “Treasury Mistakes” -
- The Evidence of Incompetence -
– A Ponzi expert in the making –

| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 12th May 2013 |
Link to all Post in Series:


This post has been edited 13th May 2013.

The RBA produce a spreadsheet of Federal Budget expenditures and revenues  on both a monthly, and annual basis.  Link to these spreadsheets provided here.

Extensive extraction of the data allows a full disclosure of the 2012-13 Swan budget.  That research is further produced below.

Financial analysts working for media outlets have the same information as do the countless Bank and other Financial Institution Economists.  These ‘plebs’ or would be discoverers number crunch every day looking for the dark holes in financial reports.

The Federal Budget is the biggest game in town – and yet the void of challengers prepared to call Treasurer Swan out as fraud and liar number so few.

The collective voice has been to allow the Government to sell its ‘revenue write-down’ message whilst those who would and should oppose appear content.

As with the 2013-14 and every other Budget before, Journalists are locked away in the days before the Budget speech with their expert number crunchers and given free rein to do their analysis ahead of the Treasurer speech.

Nobody pays any attention to the full Financial statements – all the attention is on the cash flows and the bottom headline line number outlining whether it be a surplus or deficit.   The tweaks within the budget impacting taxpayer ‘gives and takes’ are the other half of the story.

This author has skills in this type of research and the data represented hereto is an honest appraisal of the facts available, and with the use of some basic logic, and applying some human instinct, and behavioural expectations, the summaries and outcomes made hereto have foundation.

Up first – Treasurer Swan deliberately mislead the House in his 2012-13 Budget forecasts.   He stood and announced a set of numbers he knew to be false – i.e. revenue expectations, and all to a purpose to allow the Government to live the fantasy they delivered on the 2010 promised budget surplus for 2012-13.  The House jeered Mr Swan when he made his speech – see YouTube link here.

Treasurer Swan gave an increased revenue forecast of 11.23% over the previous years than unconfirmed growth of 9.11%.   The 2010-11 forecast number was an overreach as well missing its target by some $12 billion – see Revenues Table below.

Trend growth before these numbers and since 1997 was 6.6%.   Why would Mr Swan predict revenue growth year on year above a 15 year average trend growth?

The only other time since 2000 where revenues have increased anywhere near or above the forecast 9.11% predicted in 2011-12, happened in Howard’s term during 2005-06 when the forecast was 10.48%, and again in 2007-08 when it was almost 27%.

That 27% remains double any previous years best performance.  See link here to see Table to prove these numbers.

New Revenue and Expenditure Tables below compare ‘actuals’ and ‘forecast’ budget numbers.

Revenues:



[Note - the 2012-13 'Actual' number - i.e. $17,000 - is derived from Finance Minister Penny Wong's statement during last week that the budget revenues will be down by $17 billion. This has been taken at face value and used to provide a 2012-13 number for the series.]

This Table presents Forecast Budget Revenues as declared every May for the following Financial year, and then measures that forecast against the actual reported result.  These results report from 2001.

As can be seen, under Howard revenues always exceeded forecast, but under Labor, revenue forecast always exceeded actuals except for the 2009-10 year.

In fact – during the Howard years the forecast verses actual provided windfall revenues of $88.8 billion from 2001 to 2008.  Yet – the ALP record since 2009 shows revenue shortfalls in the same context of  $59.2 billion.

Swan has overestimated revenues every Budget he has delivered and wants us all to believe the 2012-13 failed surplus is yet again because of revenue writedowns because of the high $A and the effects of the GFC.

Mr Swan excels in his magicians ‘rabbits in a hat’ and ‘jokers’ he pulls from his deck of card trick.  He often confuses himself with his interchangeable reasoning.

Expenditures:

Under this ‘Expenditure’ Table extraction – both Howard and the ALP Government’s allowed actual expenditures to exceed their forecast values.

In Howard’s era from 2001 the total spend excess value was $56.7 billion, and under the ALP since 2009 the value is $46.5 billion to the end of the 2012 year.  The 2012-13 number is not available but according to announcements, it is expected to be near forecast values.

The Carbon and Mineral Rent Resources Taxes:

Carbon Tax:

The Carbon Tax came into law as the Clean Energy Future Legislation in Dec 2011.   See Legislation link here

This new Tax had the following agenda – and as paste from AustralianPolitics.com – [Note ... this resource has publicly advised that it is closing down and all links used from the source will be broken.  In that light, the text in the above link is pasted below. The media statement referred to is no longer available on the Greg Combet Media Release statement library.]

Carbon Tax Legislation Becomes Law Dec 09, 2011

Royal Assent has been given to the Gillard government’s Clean Energy Future legislation.

The legislation, a package of 21 bills, introduces a carbon tax and associated measures.

Text of media release from Treasurer Wayne Swan, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, and Families Minister Jenny Macklin:

Clean Energy Reforms Receive Royal Assent

The Gillard Government welcome the Royal Assent of a further 21 bills of the Clean Energy Future Legislative Package and the proclamation of their commencement dates.

The completion of this process means that the Government has the central legislative pieces in place to deliver a clean energy future for Australia.

The Clean Energy Act 2011, Clean Energy (Household Assistance Amendments) Act 2011, Steel Transformation Plan Act 2011 and Australian Renewable Energy Agency Act 2011 and 17 related bills have all now received Royal Assent.

The Carbon Farming Initiative and Australian National Registry of Emissions Units commenced operation yesterday, after those acts received Royal Assent in September of this year.

The administrative provisions of the Clean Energy Act 2011 will commence on 2 April 2012, meaning that the Clean Energy Regulator can start operations to prepare for the introduction of the carbon price on 1 July 2012.

These laws will drive a fundamental transformation of the Australian economy and provide support to low and middle income households as we cut pollution and continue to grow our economy.

With the formal commencement of the national registry, Carbon Farming Initiative and the certainty provided by these acts, clean energy investment and the further development of carbon markets in Australia can begin in earnest.

Australia’s Clean Energy laws will deliver the following:

  • A carbon price of $23 per tonne will apply to around 500 of the nation’s biggest polluters from 1 July 2012;
  • The carbon price will transition to a flexible price cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme on 1 July 2015, linking Australia to international carbon markets;
  • The tax free threshold from 1 July 2012 will be tripled from $6,000 to $18,200, freeing up to a million people from having to lodge a tax return;
  • There will be payment increases for pensioners, equivalent to a 1.7 per cent increase in the maximum rate of the pension. There will also be similar increased payments for other government payment recipients, including eligible families, self-funded retirees, students and job-seekers. These payments will total around $7 billion in the period to 1 July 2015;
  • The Jobs and Competitiveness Program will support our emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries and help them to reduce their carbon and energy intensity;
  • The $300 million Steel Transformation Plan will support our steel industry;
  • The Energy Security Fund will provide assistance to the most emissions-intensive coal-fired generators, support energy security and help transition to cleaner energy;
  • An independent Climate Change Authority will be established on 1 July 2012 to advise on pollution caps and climate change policies, taking into account Australia’s legislated reduction target of 80 per cent below 2000 levels by 2050.

These measures will drive substantial reductions in the carbon pollution of the sectors they cover. The Government expects reductions by 2050 of 90 per cent of expected waste emissions, 76 per cent of expected electricity emissions, 62 per cent of expected fugitive emissions and 53 per cent of expected industrial process emissions.

The first household assistance payments will be made in May and June 2012, to help households get ready for the modest impact of a carbon price.

The initial Clean Energy regulations covering the landfill waste prescribed distance and applications for the Energy Security Fund have now been made.

The provisions of the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 to formally establish the Land Sector Carbon and Biodiversity Board commenced today.

In 2012, the Government will add the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) to this legislative framework. The $10 billion CEFC will invest in commercialising clean energy projects, unlocking significant new private investment in renewable energy, low pollution and energy efficiency technologies.

… can still be read on-line at: Wayne Swan’s Media Release library

Noise … Noise … Noise …

You read the ‘Clean Energy’ promised spends right … Greg Combet believed in everything he was saying on that night and would never have entertained a view would turn out to be mostly fairy tales, all made up to sell a new tax to create a revenue illusion.  A tax that has no direct benefit in the global warming hoax,  a tax that was hatched on the back of the alarmist theory to the global climate change phenomena engulfing the globe.

Combet is now knee-deep in his own ICAC inquiry into his relationship to disgraced former NSW Resource Minister Ian MacDonald.   Combet’s demons are coming back to haunt him.  see story here …

The forecast Carbon Tax  revenues were estimated as: Source linked here

  • 2012-13 = $4.010 billion
  • 2013-14 = $6.640 billion
  • 2014-15 = $7.340 billion
  • 2015-16 = $6.750 billion

The forecast revenues from the Carbon Tax across the forward estimates amount to almost $21 billion from 2013-14.   Mr Swan is now using these numbers to justify revenue writedowns across the forward estimates.   Talk about floating a boat …

The forecast MRRT and PRRT revenues i.e. Resources Rent taxes were estimated as:  Source linked here

  • 2011-12 = $1.463 billion
  • 2012-13 = $5.400 billion – MRRT commenced.
  • 2013-14 = $6.400 billion
  • 2014-15 = $5.630 billion
  • 2015-16 = $6.620 billion

These forecast revenues from the Rent Resources taxes across the forward estimates amount to almost $18.5 billion from 2013-14.

Combined with the Carbon Tax forward estimates, this makes a total of $40 billion of lost revenue across the forward estimates.   That represents 50% of the $80 billion Mr Swan claims has gone missing across the forward estimates.

Can it be said that the forward estimates were inflated in the first place?

That Mr Swan was creating a false set of numbers so he could deliver a promised budget surplus?

And if that be so – that then leads to the allegations that Mr Swan mislead the House on Budget night in his Budget estimates and deliberately so… the only other explanation can be that gross incompetence was involved – and yet he is still the Treasurer.

The Carbon emissions trading scheme was to be introduced with a floor carbon price of $23/tonne.  In the last week Combet announced the abolishment of the promised tax concession worth $1.4 billion that came attached to this scheme.  Link to media release

All the future promises made as outlined in the Clean Energy Bill media released published above are all now doubtful, with exceptions for those already paid, and/or already locked into future benefits payments.

With all the ‘mendacious’ pomp and ceremony Combet used to promote the Carbon Tax and its Emissions Trading scheme, and the ‘mud-in-you-eye’ slurs aimed at the Opposition, will Combet now eat his ‘humble-pie’ and line up for the free shots aimed at him?

Budget Forecasts:

Let’s face it – crystal ball forecasting is all Treasury estimates can offer given the global economic turmoil we and the rest of the world are dealing with.

That is not to diminish the Government’s responsibility in any way to deliver honest Governance.  How dare they hide behind what they do not know.

If the future is uncertain on any scale where revenues are circumspect, surely the prudent and responsible thing to do is the practice restraint and try to encourage the same with the electorate.   You do remember the 40% pay increases the Federal Government all voted themselves after Gillard ousted Rudd in 2010?

Previously Rudd had imposed a freeze on Parliamentary pay increases.

Decades of Government’s getting into power based of election promises and once there,  applying a different set of policies and rules to stay in Government is the cause of the GFC in the first place.

Prime Ministers come and go as do Treasurers and the like, their mistakes remain for the next lot to fix and the likes of Gillard and Swan get to walk off into the sunset on lifetime pensions we can only dream about.

If the Government were to have the same accounting and prudential standards as public listed companies, and the electorate were the shareholders, the shareholders would have receive no dividends since Labor took office.  In addition they would have had to top up their shareholdings with new equity to cover the ‘deficit(s)’ and the new debt created  as a result.

Under Howard’s 11 years in office – those same shareholders would have received dividends each and every year.

This is the measurement of the competence of this ALP Government in a business like assessments.  They SUCK!!! 

In fact – the laws Swan and his minions have broken in corporate fraud terms would see them off to serve some serious time.   The reality – $300 billion of gross incompetence … that’s 300 times what Madoff ripped from his clients.

Many of the projected offsets from the Carbon Tax have been implemented before the revenues came home or were verified.

The same with the MRRT and as those mistakes came home to roost, and became a reality for Gillard and Swan to deal with, all that could be done was to inflate the revenue numbers as a fraud to cover up the broken promise of a budget surplus for 2012-13.

Those who understood what was afoot mostly stayed silent or were no heard, and that would have included many Treasury bureaucrats who were a part of the number output.  They would have known every time Swan fronted the media he told porkies, as did every other Minister, MP, and Senator trying to sell Swan’s fanciful reasoning about revenue writedowns.

Technically – to say there were revenue shortfalls as measured against the forecast revenues is correct – but in the context of a larger responsibility, a forecast revenue inflated so as to justify expenditures, and election promises,  is as big a fraud as there is.   Swan has facilitated a climate where they have run the Nation into the ground with expenditures they knew could not be paid for from existing revenue collections.

The MRRT:

See ‘Guide to MRRT’ published by Hawker Britton here.

Treasurer Swan and his fellow Ministers have presented the shortfall in tax collections from the MRRT as a result of an economic slowdown.  He claims that the tax is a ‘profits based tax’ and that the mining industry is facing harder times then the Government expected.

Poppycock!!!

The MRRT was a tax grab to fund expenditures – the States own the mining royalties and the Federal Government wanted a slice of the pie.   There is still a legal challenge before the High Court on the validity of the MRRT and whether it has purchase up against the States constitutional entitlements.

The forward estimates from this Tax have been shown to be a sham from the first quarter collect in Sept 2012.   Already this year,  [2012-13] the shortfall looks like being $2-3 billion against the budget estimates.

It has been revealed that to placate the Mining Industry campaign against MRRT mark 1 under Rudd, Gillard used the issue to oust Rudd and did a deal with the miners that made the tax collect impotent.   It was doomed by the Legislation from the outset yet the Government kept the forward estimates in place.

What would be the Government’s Motives to lie:

The revenue table above proves that the ALP have overstated their budget and forward estimates well above trend growth of 6.6% for the period 1996-2008.

The reasons are obvious – from 2010 Gillard and Swan made promises about returning the budget to surplus by 2012-13, and when the new Carbon and MRR taxes failed to provide the forecast buffer revenues needed to fulfil those promises – they had to make a decision to either come clean about the promised 2012-13 surplus, or fudge the revenue numbers to create the illusion of a budget surplus.

This is evidence by the increased revenue forecast growth year on year from 2011-12 at 8.74%, itself well above the trend growth of 6.6%, to 11.23% for 2012-13.   With this growth forecast, Swan was able to announce the small $1.5 billion surplus in May ’12.

That decision created a fraud about the budget revenue position and the Government used this lie to cover its promised budget surplus for 2012-13.  It was a fraud upon the Australian people.  That fraud is still on-going today and more will be added on Tuesday during Treasurer Swan’s 2013-14 Budget speech.

Some further evidence to support this theory is provided below.

The 2012-13 Budget Speech May 2012:linked here

Spending Savings:

A headline feature in Swan’s Budget preamble for the 2012-13 Budget was a forecast savings in expenditures across the forward estimates.  The chart used to highlight these savings in the Budget Papers appears below:

The commentary produced with this chart can be read in full here – but states in part:

Targeted spending cuts

In returning to surplus the Government has ensured the budget is in good shape over the long term while maintaining our commitment to fairness and improving skills, health and education services.

Ensuring balance

We are returning the budget to surplus through targeted spending cuts, which retain fairness, place the budget on firmer ground and achieve better value for taxpayers’ money.

Over $33.6 billion in saves have been identified in this Budget with less than half being tax. This builds on the over $100 billion of savings we identified over the last four Budgets.

In making these decisions we have applied our core values of protecting the most vulnerable in our community and the frontline services Australian families rely on.

We remain committed to providing the skills for tomorrow’s workforce and continuing to improve our health and education systems.

By focusing on fairness and value for money the Government has been able to prioritise spending to people most in need… continues …

Nothing in this statement makes any sense when comparisons with the forecast numbers produced in the 2012-13 budget are analysed.

If Mr Swan claims to have made $33.6 billion in saves … would that not generate an expenditure downgrade of a similar amount in the forward estimates?

The forecast expenditure growth for 2012-13 over the 2011-12 Financial years only reduced by 0.39%, or $1.466 billion.  That would mean that after having trimmed/identified $33.6 billion in savings, the Government went and spend all but $1.466 billion on other new policy initiatives.

What creditability can Swan claim after finding savings but decided to spend it elsewhere?

2012-13 Budget Overview:  linked here

This Overview is 40 odd pages of expenditure highlights and one or two pages of revenue explanations – a summary where revenues have been tweaked to pay for the expenditures.

This again provides evidence that Government’s focus is all on the expenditures trying to sell the electorate about the extra ‘goodies’ they will receive in their pay packets.

The ‘bad’ news in how those ‘goodies’ are to be paid for is something all Government’s want to play down.  This is the politics and as a factor in any equation, the factor used is what makes the formula look good or bad.

In this instance that factor used is the propaganda and it has become of greater importance than any reality attached to the hard numbers.

Tax Revenue as a % of GDP:

In the 2012-13 budget papers a chart was used to show Australia’s low rate of tax revenues to GDP ratio.  Linked here …

The linked chart appears below: – [click to enlarge in a new window.]

What the chart does not tell you is that all State and Local taxes imposed in this Nation are not included in this chart, a propaganda mis-direction that works every time because nobody asked the questions.  See reference here …

Nobody is ever going to paint themselves or use data that portrays them in a bad light.  One has to go looking for the mistakes, the holes, the cover-ups and that is what our Media are charged with.

We are a Nation of blind idiots and continue to accept what our Leaders tell us all the time.   Those who should know better have become apathetic to their responsibilities. This allows the likes of Swan and Bradbury to roll out their agendarised version of what the Government wants us to believe.

We deserve every thing that a Government does during its term in office – when is the watchdog watching the watchdog, who in turn is also watching the watchdog so to speak, going to expose the truth.

GDP Growth:

Another angle or perspective is to look at long-term GDP growth – see chart pack below – Source Trading Economics[click on charts to enlarge in a new window.]

Between the 1990 figure of $305 billion, and the 2004 number of $455 billion, we see a growth rate of near 50% over 15 years.   By comparison, we’ve seen GDP grow to $1.37 billion by 2012 according to ‘Trading Economics’ updates, and we know that the RBA has the GDP number at $1.45 billion at the end of 2012, that represents some 300% growth in the last 8 years.   That growth had to come from somewhere!!!

The only economic events of importance during that 2005-2013 period were the continuing resources boom, the GFC, and the stimulus supplied by the Federal Government post GFC.  Look to the growth acceleration post 2008 when the Governments stimulus started.

On this basis alone – it can be argued that this GDP growth as another example of how Government spending influences crucial and relevant economic indicators.

By comparison, the USA and other Trading partner GDP growth rates for the same period are exemplified in the following chart pack:

 

Canada:

About the only Nation with a similar chart structure, if not the same growth percentages.

The UK:

Japan:

China:

By far a chart with extraordinary growth numbers. No wonder Australia survived the GFC and then that poses the question – why the continued stimulus spend into 2010 and beyond?

EuroZone

These comparisons re all Northern Hemisphere verses Southern hemisphere, and explain the reasons how Australia survived the GFC – China’s growth alone provided us with GFC insulation.

No other western Nation has GDP growth like Australia and it is hard to fault the Government on that point.

Given the cost of the high A$ and its impact on revenues and economic downturns in all Industry, jobs, and infrastructure, where does one look to find reasons for the exponential GDP growth?

It can only be Government debt induced – and that is not what an economist would call genuine growth.

Inflation Index:

It’s been a long-held belief that the ‘inflation’ index as used to spike annual Government budgets,  is also used to ensure the economy moves forward in GDP terms.

Yet the inflation CPI index is the barometer used to measure the strength of the economy and what feeds from that drives every other economic indicator.

In other words it’s a ‘loop’ equation, without one i.e. the positive CPI – the economy would stall and all Government revenues would also stall and fall away – commonly referred to as ‘deflation’…

All commerce is a supply and demand equation – inflation indexing just gives the right to increase as a part of the loop equation.  If supply is abundant you would think prices would come down – this happens in produce in seasonal terms, yet in Labour terms when unemployment grows, the response should be cheaper labour costs.

When Government services are cut and staff laid off, those staff without jobs would surely work for the Government at a lesser cost then the staff who were not laid off.  This should bring wage cost dow in a true and free market.  But – the Unions enter the equation here and in coming years you can expect immense pressures on wage costs as Australia’s competitiveness with the rest of the world erodes further – another by-product of the high A$ policy.

The point being – the inflation index is not a true nor realistic economic indicator in free market terms.  Yet – the Government’s use of it to frame year on year Departmental Budgets creates the illusion they have to increase budgets, pensions, and the like in tandem to the CPI increases.

This view is truly a black and white view and not so much applicable or tried in any modern economy.     Modern economics is in disarray because of the GFC and its destruction to forecast modeling.

If the revenue side of Governments budget is derived from a multiplier of the targeted inflation forecasts,  then again multiplied out across the forward estimates using a variable multiplier, how can a forecast be treated with any accuracy?

Any public listed Company, or medium to small business who produced budgets like this would have their shareholders and Bankers sacking CEO’s and the Board.

Revenues are where all profit based business’ operate from.  Why is it different for Governments?

Opposition Creditability:

The research on display hereto is available to anyone interested in exposing Swan’s Budget lies, and to that point, why is the Opposition spokesperson Joe Hockey,  unable to land any real blows against Swan.

Me thinks that the Opposition Treasury understanding and knowledge base is challenged in theory and conditioned by the same Treasury modelling in trying to find real fault with Swan and his Treasury performance.

It might be because they don’t what to discredit Swan too early before the election and let some new Treasurer they don’t know run the show – hardly.

I can advise the Opposition there is nobody on the ALP side who could do the job, and if Swan is the best of them,  Australia deserves everything Swan leaves as an aftertaste when he exits.

Best Treasurer in the World – ha … a gong awarded by overseas investors who have had their siphon hoses plugged into Australia’s wealth for the last 10 years.

Swan lives in a fantasy land:

Swan gave an interview with Laurie Oakes Sunday morning.  That interview can be read in full here… and in part Swan responded as pasted below:

OAKES:

But a year ago you budgeted for a surplus of $1.5 billion.

TREASURER:

That’s right.

OAKES:

Now wwe are now facing a massive deficit, rather than a surplus. The Fin Review says $17 billion. Is that close?

TREASURER:

Certainly $17 billion [write-down] in 2012-13, and the nature of the revenue write-downs do spread across the forward estimates. But I was faced with a choice, the government was faced with a choice. We could turn around in the face of those revenue write-downs and cut to the bone, slash spending right now and hit jobs, and push up unemployment. Or, stand up and explain to the Australian people that our number one priority is to support jobs and growth, and that’s what I’m doing…

OAKES:

Just about everybody said a year ago that you were mad, that you couldn’t achieve it.

TREASURER:

I’m sorry, that’s not right. There is no credible economic forecaster who predicted this nature of revenue write-down for this year, or across the revenue estimates. Can I just explain why? What we have had happen in our economy in the last three quarters of last year is that nominal GDP growth for the first time in 50 years has fallen below real GDP growth [for three quarters]. We also had a situation where the Australian dollar remained high, when the price of our exports fell – something that has never happened before. The combination of those factors is what has hit all of the profit-based taxes in our revenue lines, and are resulting in these revenue write-downs. And Laurie, that wasn’t predicted by any serious economic forecaster last year.

OAKES:

Joe Hockey predicted it.

TREASURER:

Well Joe Hockey’s always always out there preaching doom and gloom…

OAKES:

He’s been proved right.

TREASURER:

No, he hasn’t been proven right. Our economy is among the strongest in the developed world. But what has happened in the past year is that our revenues have been hit. The responsible course of action when faced with that is to support gobs and growth. So I stood up last December and said it would be unlikely that we would come back to surplus in 2012-13. At that stage, the revenue write-down from the mid-year budget update of $4 billion had been achieved over the first four months of the financial year. And as we’ve gone through this year, the revenue write-downs have got larger and larger, and at every stage of that process I’ve informed the Australian people about what has been happening, and I have taken the responsible course. I’ll take my medicine; I’ll accept the politics of this are very uncomfortable. But getting the big economic decisions right to support Australian jobs is what people expect of me, no matter how uncomfortable that is politically.

… continues …

Oakes nailed him, skinned him, all but pissed on him … and Swan sat there and kept telling lies … and they say there is no crime in a Politician telling a little white lie …  Oakes … you are over and need to get a new gig …

Summary:

To offer up some mitigation – Gillard and Swan did try to plug the revenue gap with the Carbon and MRR Taxes.   Neither came near forecast predictions and are now in tatters with the collapse of the Carbon Price in Europe, and the end to the mining boom from Australia’s perspective upon us.

Swan and the Treasury should have known tax collections would be down after the GFC because of the equity and other GFC writedowns carried forward.  Also the property investor with negative gearing assets has been able to offset their payee tax with property writedowns because of the lackluster property markets.

All the revenue forecasts took none of the GFC aftermath into account. That is all on Swan.

Next Tuesday 14th May ’13 is Budget night and Swan will put on his magicians cloak yet again and try to mesmerize Australia with his own brand of magic numbers.

Unfortunately – this little Aussie battler will have to be content with throwing rotten tomatoes at the TV because he can’t be at Parliament House to do it personally from the public gallery.

Believe what Mr Swan has to say at your peril …

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The EYE-BALL Guru …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up -

May 10, 2013 6 comments
The-EYE-BALL-Opinion-Header-2
Latest GURU Posts:


- 29th Apr – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -


- 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


- 31st Mar – The Cyprus Bail-out -


- 31st Mar – Australia’s Debt – and the idiots Managing the Treasury -


- 20th Feb – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – Part II – Entitlements and Allowances -


- 13th Feb – Australia’s Public Sector Remunerations Part I – Parliamentarians “Base-Salary” and “Additional” entitlements -


- 31st Jan – The Devil is in the Detail, there is none – Gillard chooses shock, awe & Spin over Policy -


- 23rd Jan – The Turmoil is Already here – We just have to accept what is coming -


- 22nd Jan – The Turmoil is beginning – Japan’s Economic Stimulus to tip the scales -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” -
– A Follow-Up -
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 10th May 2013 |
Link to Previous Post in Series:


The media cycle has become polarised around the ‘BUDGET’ black-hole … and the Government’s inability to sell the message that it is not to blame.

Common … nominal GDP verses real GDP … we’ll get to that a bit later …

Then there was the ‘Citizen John’ example Gillard used in her own budget write-down explanation whilst trying to sell another Government mis-direction.

When stupidity and ignorance combined it makes for a special kind of dumb.  Gillard, Swan and all the other Team Gillard neanderthals have constantly shown their preponderance to change their stories to suit the moment.

Australian’s are not buying the excuses for the revenue shortfalls – and they have every right to think that way.  Everybody is looking at this from the wrong angle – the Government has been selling the message that it is revenue writedowns as the reason for the widening deficit.  Every economist out there has happily jumped on board and supported the claims with facts against forecasts and actuals.

If they were good at their job rather than follow the scent laid down by the Government, if they had a ‘light-bulb’ moment and look at the flip side, a place the Government does not want anyone poking around – you will see where the carnage really is.

The Table and Chart presented in the previous post, and again displayed hereto – shows the expenditure growth from 2007-8 and paints a clear picture of how the Rudd and then Gillard Government went on their spending sprees.

[Click on Image below to enlarge Table and Chart in a new window.  The 2013 figures are from latest estimates.]

It’s quite simple really – Rudd came to power in late 2007 – and the 2007-08 budget set under Costello was on target for a monster surplus.   That surplus ended up being $28 billion – by far the largest surplus of any Government in Australia’s history.

From that $28 billion surplus in ’07 – ’08, to a $32 billion deficit in ’08 – ’09 is some sort of crazy madhouse spending spree.  This was still Rudd and we know about GFC educed:

  1. the ‘School Building program’,
  2. the ‘Pink Bats’,
  3. the $1000 cash handout just before Xmas 2009 to all pension recipients, and then there was the,
  4. the second $1000 cash handout to families a few months later.

To get your head around a $60 billion single year increased spend:

  • the total Defence budget has averaged $15 billion per year since 1996 -
  • the total Education yearly spend average over that same 17 years is $17.5 Billion,
  • Health has averaged $36 billion, and
  • Welfare averaged $84 billion since 1996 and the 2009 spend was $124 billion – an increase of $27 billion over the 2008 number.

This was in the middle of a GFC panic and it was global – some four years later the Central Banks spend has proved crippling to all across the Nth hemisphere – Australia claims to have escaped the worst and that optimism is about to crumble.

Rudd’s GFC panic has amounted to short-term gain for a long term pain.  Whatever Rudd’s agenda was to reign in the budget spend was superceded when he was booted in a night of back room deals and Union movement and all to a plan.

Gillard’s appointment gave he and her backers the socialist platform and the stage from where they could execute their agenda.  The spending would not stop and the evidence is there.

To placate alarmist economists the 2012-13 budget was promised to be in surplus and still the new policies and their expenditure rolled out.  Nobody minded because Gillard sounded sincere about the surplus budget in 12-13 … and it was so up until Dec ’12 when the Government came clean and announced it was abandoning its surplus target.   That surplus has now been revise several times i.e.

  1. Nov ’12 from 1.5 billion surplus to $.5 billion surplus,
  2. Dec ’12 from a small surplus to a small deficit,
  3. Feb ’13 due to revenue writedowns looking like a $5 billion deficit,
  4. Apr ’13 due to further revenue writedowns it looks like being $12 billion,
  5. May ’13 revised again when Finance Minister announced that writedowns now look like being $17 billion.

The true is they have no idea … they have put in place irreversible policy spending and the revenues have increased well above trend/average as the table above shows – but the problem the forward estimates created has come back to haunt Gillard, Swan and the Gillard sideshow of Ministers.

None of them can explain because none of then knew from the outset how bad a Treasurer Wayne Swan really was.   Spending is easy when all you have to do is ask … is just plain crazy to believe that in a GFC impacted world  – finding new revenues to fund new spending will happen without cuts in other areas and restraint.

The writedowns from the equity markets since 2008, the property market flatline,  the interest returns in a low-interest rate environment,  whoever did the forecast numbers on forward estimates for:

  • corporate tax revenues,
  • the property negative gearing impact,
  • the increased pension payouts to self funded retirees when their investment income fell off a cliff,
  • the high A$ impact on tourism, trade, manufacturing, retail, agriculture, mining, and
  • the increased subsidies – i.e. the car manufacturing industry

… had to have some idea what was going to happen.

These writedowns should have been obvious to Treasury, the RBA, and Government advisors in economic terms, and the advice would have been given up the chain.

The issue then becomes why did the Government and its policy advisors ignore the obvious downstream impact issues that would arise if they continued with their spending programs?

There was a magnificent opportunity offered up when the A$ v US$ fell from parity to below A$0.50c in the turmoil of the GFC in late 2008 and early 2009.  This happened as off-shore investors pulling their funds out because they saw the end of the resource ‘cash and carry’ trade.

A decision was made then and there that off-shore capital was more important to the Nation than a devalued currency.   Having got the monkey off our backs in that A$ sell-down,  the RBA and Swan invited the carpetbaggers to hop on board again, and that saw the A$ rise just as quickly, retracing all it’s lost value and more within the next 8 months.

Glen Stevens has to wear the ‘dunce-hat’ on this one along with Wayne Swan – why did the Government allow the off-shore investors to return without a levy?

They should have known what a high A$ would mean in terms of long-term trade and labour costs, and was the reason why the Australia’s resources had lifted the value of the currency in the first place.

This mistake has cost the Nation A$trillion’s in lost trade, industry, labour force, and other domestic revenues, and will continue to harm all Australian industry well into the future as we will continue to export jobs offshore.

We are not in the same position as Spain, Greece or any other members of the P.I.G.S – but give us time.

Our real unemployment number is well above 10%, and perhaps as high as 20% if the measure was against those seeking full-time work.  The 960k jobs Swan boasts about having created is made up of near 55% part-time jobs … see Guru post here – the table data to prove these facts is reproduced at right – [click to enlarge.]

The boasts about our 5.5% unemployment is really ‘sock-in-mouth’ stuff … why highlight a weakness and promote it as a strength.   For many years long-term unemployed have been shifted off the number and parked in some other category … the ABS numbers come from sampling and have done so for many years.  If anyone understands the sampling methodology then you know that the error margin in regional areas is very high.

This all gets us to the Welfare spend – the ‘third-rail’ of all politics – you ride it at your own peril as President Jed Bartlett put it – [West Wing] …

Yet a most interesting stat revealed has the ALP government Welfare spending reduced signficantly as a % spend of all expenditures – look at the Welfare spent Chart at right to get an appreciation of the difference – [again - click to enlarge.]

Crazy to believe right – how can an ALP Government spend less on Welfare than Howard did?

To get to that answer,  the Budget Accounts requires a lot more research.  Where else could the Rudd/Gillard tenure spending be hidden in the accounts … that and more information will be forthcoming in another post.  Now to the nominal GDP verses real GDP explanation.

Nominal GDP v Real GDP:

Who out there understands Treasurer Swan when he gets a ‘gimmick’ study from his Treasury baboons to explain away the point he is trying to make. read what Wikipedia has to say about Nominal GDP -

Nominal GDP and adjustments to GDP

The raw GDP figure as given by the equations linked here is called the nominal, historical, or current, GDP.

When one compares GDP figures from one year to another, it is desirable to compensate for changes in the value of money – i.e., for the effects of inflation or deflation. To make it more meaningful for year-to-year comparisons, it may be multiplied by the ratio between the value of money in the year the GDP was measured and the value of money in a base year. For example, suppose a country’s GDP in 1990 was $100 million and its GDP in 2000 was $300 million. Suppose also that inflation had halved the value of its currency over that period. To meaningfully compare its GDP in 2000 to its GDP in 1990, we could multiply the GDP in 2000 by one-half, to make it relative to 1990 as a base year. The result would be that the GDP in 2000 equals $300 million × one-half = $150 million, in 1990 monetary terms. We would see that the country’s GDP had realistically increased 50 percent over that period, not 200 percent, as it might appear from the raw GDP data. The GDP adjusted for changes in money value in this way is called the real, or constant, GDP.

The factor used to convert GDP from current to constant values in this way is called the GDP deflator. Unlike consumer price index, which measures inflation or deflation in the price of household consumer goods, the GDP deflator measures changes in the prices of all domestically produced goods and services in an economy including investment goods and government services, as well as household consumption goods.

Constant-GDP figures allow us to calculate a GDP growth rate, which indicates how much a country’s production has increased (or decreased, if the growth rate is negative) compared to the previous year.

Real GDP growth rate for year n = [(Real GDP in year n) − (Real GDP in year n − 1)] / (Real GDP in year n − 1)

Another thing that it may be desirable to account for is population growth. If a country’s GDP doubled over a certain period, but its population tripled, the increase in GDP may not mean that the standard of living increased for the country’s residents; the average person in the country is producing less than they were before. Per-capita GDP is a measure to account for population growth.

Here is a YouTube clip to help you understand -

In Principal it’s part of a card shuffle number crunchers use to confuse the audience when numbers don’t give you the answer you want.

This was Wayne Swan’s explanation … [the GDP explanation begins near the 5min 30sec mark.]

I counted 50+ outright lies Swan told to cover his mistakes and incompetence. The lies are subjective if we use the ‘nominal’ verses ‘real’ argument …

Blaming the high A$:

Swan uses the high A$ value as a reason for revenue writedowns – yet the A$ has been well – some 40%-50% above its mean average – [A$0.75c v US$] since the float in 1983. No Government has used the value of the A$v as a reason previously – yet it has been at these levels for over 10 years … it is desperate in the extreme to blame revenues when they have actually grown at 7%+ in 2012-13 and above trend of 6% since 1996. The 2012-13 forecast revenue growth at 25% to cover the expenditure that had to be funded to allow the Government to bring its forecast budget surplus in when they announced the 1012-13 budget in May ’12.

Blaming the Treasury Forecasts:

Yes – that’s right – the Government knew in May ’12 that it was selling a budget that misrepresented the facts. The Nov ’12 review revised it ever so slightly – and four months later is was a $12 billion budget hole, and now it is a $17 billion budget hole.

Treasury don’t make these mistakes – or are we to believe that the $11 billion black hole they found in the Coalition’s 2010 election policy initiative might have been equally wrong. It raises more questions then it answers.

Are the Treasury ALP stooges … are they prepared to ‘cook’ the books for political outcomes?

Truly legitimate questions now that the modeling used to predict the surplus has proved to be so horribly wrong.

No matter who the Government, i.e. Swan, Wong, Bradbury, and any other MInister or spokesperson sent out to sell and gift the media the next story in this crumbling facade – the reality is that Government’s lock in spending via policy’s they make to win elections.  Been happening for 40 plus years.

The revenue side of the equation comes after the fact and if they screw-up the economy then we get to where we are now.

The high A$ has cost Australia $trillion’s in trade, revenue, GDP growth, and many other connective opportunities over the last 10 years or so … yet no one thought to think about currency intervention to protect the economy – hell they still think it is wrong to do so despite RBA Governor Glen Stevens comments made when he announced the .25% interest rate reduction this week – see comments here.

For the educated observer and some who understands logical argument – Swan has no creditability, nor any entitlement to be a Treasurer.   His baboons beneath him are appointed on the basis that are not allowed to be any smarter than Wayne Swan.  In fact that type of hiring mentality is across all the public service hiring policy.  It’s the reason the asylum has been taken over by nutjobs – nobody has a clue from the top down.

Abbott and Hockey have their work cut out because in matters of finance – they hold no better credentials that Swan or any other of the current bushranger pack.

You have to be able to trust the Treasury modeling if in fact it is not doctored for political outcomes.  For Treasury to have got it so wrong creates a smell that just won’t do away.

Was Gillard’s forcefulness and commitment to her agenda of spending – when stacked up against a choice for the bureaucrats to either do what I tell you to do, or find another job, the reason they are being blamed for getting it so wrong?

Support argument comes in the fact that the Public Service offers very generous perks and the like – and rather than lose those benefits, senior bureaucrats and the like shut their mouths and do as they are told.

It would seem that integrity, or the standing up for what you believe in is no longer regarded as a personal quality required to work in Government anymore.

Another piece of advice for Mr Abbott – sack every Department head and three rungs down when you take office – hire people from the private sector on MP parliamentary ‘base salary’ levels and offer a bonus to those who get the job done.   Use the – ‘Serve your Country’, or ‘your Country needs you’ motif to sucker some high flyers in to give back.   I don’t see it happening – but you can only try to improve the collective brain value of so-called experts in the Treasury.

The next Guru post will be about the Budget Expenditure breakdowns …

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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.


The EYE-BALL Guru …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – Heads must roll – Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -

April 29, 2013 3 comments
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Latest GURU Posts:


- 23rd Apr – Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” - disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


- 31st Mar – The Cyprus Bail-out -


- 31st Mar – Australia’s Debt – and the idiots Managing the Treasury -


- 20th Feb – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – Part II – Entitlements and Allowances -


- 13th Feb – Australia’s Public Sector Remunerations Part I – Parliamentarians “Base-Salary” and “Additional” entitlements -


- 31st Jan – The Devil is in the Detail, there is none – Gillard chooses shock, awe & Spin over Policy -


- 23rd Jan – The Turmoil is Already here – We just have to accept what is coming -


- 22nd Jan – The Turmoil is beginning – Japan’s Economic Stimulus to tip the scales -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” -
– Heads must roll -
- Gillard, Swan and Bradbury must accept responsibility’ -
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 29th Apr 2013 |
We all remember the emphasis Swan and the rest of the Government placed on “Jobs – Jobs – Jobs” in the 2009+ era.

The Government made a conscious decision in the aftermath of the GFC and took liberty with fiscal policy and used employment as the trigger to allow themselves to let debt escalate.

The Nation has not arrived at it’s current financial abyss without a collective brain’s trust failing.

Working in the background feeding the Budget forward estimates up the ladder to their political masters are the Treasury bureaucrats and their yuppy underlings – all with starts in their eyes and willing to do the bidding of any taskmaster.

The question has to be asked about in the way these subordinates go about their business and do their best for the Nation – which came first – ‘the chicken of the egg’.

This is the crux – who feeds the pony?

Do the bureaucrats have a responsibility to the Nation that separates them from the political will of their masters – or do they protect their careers and appease the political masters at the expense of the Nation – The forward estimates have been way off target for years … who fudged the forward estimates based on a dodgy MRRT revenue expectation?   Who relented under Gillards pressure to spend her way to her own agenda?

Politicians formulate policy and throw the ball to the Treasury to find ways to fund and cost the policies and deliver accurate forward estimates.  It is only then that a Government should consider the policy and its impact on the economy.  The question is not whether the Treasury fudges the forward estimates to give the Government the news it wants to hear – it’s about Treasury staff being incompetent to understand the modern variations of economic measurements and not understanding the MRRT policy impact, or the Carbon Tax forecast against a carbon price underpinned by the European carbon price.

Sadly – this Gillard led Government has had stars in it eyes from the get-go … Gillard was in a rush as all Labor Government’s tend to be.   Gillard had the Rudd GFC response to build upon and she and Swan continued to use the GFC excuse to push new expenditure policies believing the Debt/GDP ratio comparisons allowed Australia to continue with the spending.

History has now shown us that that spending was not needed as China handed Australia an economic lifeline.  If the truth be told – Australia’s GFC fallout was postponed and awaits us downstream.   China will not be there to bail us out a second time as resources are now off the boil and aplenty, other Nations are coming on stream and are much more competitive than Australia – China will do what is best for China.

The $300 billion debt created by successive ALP Government’s since 2009 have fueled GDP growth and propped up the private sector. The single reason for Australia’s uncompetitiveness has been the continue lack of response for the RBA and Government to enact measures to weaken the high A$.   So much so that the damage done to our export industries has been by and large overlooked.

The high A$ is the sole reason  for our nightmare if anyone is looking for a pivot.  Swan thinks it a good thing, but then he does not understand the $trillions of lost export revenue over the last 10 odd years.

This single offset to what should have been Australia’s most profitable mining boom was diminished because the rest of the world invested in Australia and took all those profits offshore.   Only idiots could allow this to happen and Howard and Costello were equally ignorant of the undercurrent happening in global investment from the early 2000’s.

Treasury and RBA are the most to blame because they serve all Masters – they should have been advising and readjusting the forward estimates on growth and reduced export earnings all as a result of the hig A$.   They were grossly incompetent and deserve every criticism they have coming their way.

Treasury created a complete misread on revenues and expenditures right across all the forward estimates.  The Government also allowed itself to use it’s own policy expectations of forecast revenues from the ‘Carbon Tax’ and the ‘MRRT’ to hedge their bets on continued spending for their new policies.

In real terms – the Government spent before it could confirm the tax collect.  This was a decision Gillard and Swan made as a collective to initiate policy’s that would paint them in a better light.  Gillard gambled again and has been caught out – just as she has gambled on the AWU scandal never coming back to haunt her.

Since that abandonment in Dec ’12 – the excuse used has been reduced revenues.  Any economist or financial commentator can used the budget numbers and extract the hard data and disprove this Government excuse.  See the table and chart below to help … or click here to see Table and Chart in a new window now.

In recent weeks Swan tried to change the excuse – he changed the message and it became about the high A$ and its direct responsibility on the revenues.  This was a more plausible argument and should have been where Swan and Bradbury and all the other Cabinet minions went with their message last December.  But alas it did not gain traction and the original ‘revenue writedowns’ has again be installed as the excuse message.

Confirmation of this came overnight when the Government leaked there has been a $12 billion ‘black-hole’ caused by revenue writedowns.  Hockey explained later that the $39 billion increased revenue over and above the 2011-12 number will now be a $27 billion increase – still an increase of 7.6% and well ahead of the average year on year increase in revenues since 1996-97.

This leak followed up by an official media address is a deliberate and well-tried strategy to soften the media and electorate.  We can expect more of this in the lead up to the budget speech due in a fortnight [14th May].   The tactic is predictable – if its bad news – deliver it in small doses, if its is good news – do it with panache and flash …

A full text of Gillards speech today is produced below: [critiqued with Guru comments ...]

MON 29 APRIL 2013

Prime Minister, Canberra

[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS OMITTED]

It’s a great sign of the growing recognition of Per Capita’s work that your Executive Director David has been in such good company at the international Policy Network’s Progressive Governance and Global Progress conference in Denmark.

Congratulations to you on the fine contribution Per Capita is making in the world of ideas.

With the Federal Budget just fifteen days away, I thank you for this opportunity to share with you the clearest possible picture of the purpose and context of our Budget deliberations.  … bullshitttttt …

This year’s Budget will be about a national challenge – and a national plan.

A challenge for Australia: to respond to the huge reductions in revenue growth over the next four years.

A plan for Australia: to make necessary investments in the nation’s future, to ensure that none of our people is left behind.

Tuesday 14 May will be no old-fashioned pre-election Budget night.

What the Treasurer will deliver will not be a political pamphlet – he will outline an economic program.

The Budget will outline the fiscal path for the coming four years, one designed both to take account of the nation’s current circumstances and to shape the nation’s future.   … we heard this three years ago predicting a surplus in 2012-13 …

Our key long term objective, the progressive purpose of this Government’s fiscal policy is enduring.

It is:

  • to maximise jobs and economic growth;
  • to ensure sustainable funding over the long-term for the investments that strengthen our economy and the services our whole community relies on; and
  • to keep inflation in check and give the Reserve Bank maximum opportunity to keep interest rates low.

The Government’s medium-term fiscal strategy – to deliver fiscal surpluses on average over the economic cycle – is designed to give effect to this purpose in practice.

It commits us to support jobs and economic growth when private sector demand is weak.

This is what we did so successfully during the Global Financial Crisis and, as a result, we kept around 200 000 more Australians in work. … bullshitttttt …

It commits us to making Budget decisions so that in the good times and the hard times, through the inevitable variations in economic activity and Government revenue from year to year, we can afford the investments and services that make our nation stronger, smarter and fairer.

It also ensures that we don’t simply “chase revenue down” – we don’t cut to the bone and spurn wise investments, damaging jobs and growth now and in the future.

Instead our fiscal strategy responds to the economic cycle.  … bullshitttttt …

In the language of economists, we allow the Budget’s automatic stabilisers to do their work as well as actively controlling spending to reach surplus at the right part of the economic cycle.  … don’t use terms you don’t understand … it makes you look more stupid …

That means for the coming Budget, we must fund new initiatives by making savings.

This is a necessary discipline.  … it would be a better discipline if you stopped spending …

This need for balance over the cycle has been summed up nicely by the Treasurer many times: if we are Keynesians on the way down, we have to be Keynesians on the way up – Keynesians right through the economic cycle.

The need to understand how the cycle is changing is summed up best in the remark so famously attributed to Keynes himself:

“When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?”  … a comment for all people who can’t keep a promise … and misused in this context …

In the face of the challenges we now face as a nation, this is what any smart leader, any forward-looking government, must be prepared to do. ... smart leader … you oversell yourself …

So today I want to set out the facts that underpin the decisions our nation faces as we approach this year’s Budget.

First, the good news, the shared achievement that we should never take for granted.

Unlike so many nations, Australia’s economy is stable and resilient. … bullshittttttt … three years after your 2010 forecast – your predictions for the future are as poor now as they were then …

Our economic fundamentals are sound. … bullshittttttt … the high A$ has killed our competitiveness and in the next two years the reality of our high labour costs will cost 10,000’s jobs.

We have contained inflation, low interest rates, low public debt.  … bullshittttttt … the rest of the world have has 0% interest rates and inflation has not impacted – why do we have a 3% higher interest rate differential with the rest of the world … interest rates could be 2% lower and there would be no impact in inflation … the RBA are stuck in a late 80’s early 90’s inflation mentality – the world has moved on … the RBA have not …

We are one of only eight nations in the world to have a triple-A rating with a stable outlook from all three major ratings agencies – something Australia has never previously achieved. … not because we are getting better, but because the others are failing the benchmark tests and we are headed that way as well …

Our economy is now more than thirteen per cent larger than it was in December 2007.  …. when a Governemnt spends $300 billion growth in the economy can not truly be measured … this number is misleading on a grand scale … and cannot be used to accredit the Government with economic growth …

We have bounced back from the Global Financial Crisis better than any major advanced economy.  … no-no-no … China saved us …we did nothing but ship the resources whilst others purchased A$’s and transferred wealth offshore …

If we had made the wrong decisions during the Global Financial Crisis our nation could easily be struggling with recession today.   … you made several … currency, trade, interest rate policy, inflation targeting, bank guarantees, industry subsidies targeted wrongly and so on …

Instead, Australia is now the twelfth-largest economy in the world – when Labor came to Government we were fifteenth.  … this is a cheap grab and total crap … attrition does us nobody any good in the end …

Unlike the rest of the world, we have very modest debt – because we have borrowed in the right way and at the right time, to support growth during the global financial crisis.   … subjective … and what happens when our GFC does hit …

Our level of debt is the same as a person earning $100,000 a year with a $10,000 mortgage.

Millions of Australians with mortgages and personal loans would love to be in a position where their only debt was equal to ten per cent of their income.

Similarly, countries around the world would love to be in Australia’s debt position and have an unemployment rate as low as ours.   … amounts to spitting in the eye of those less fortunate than ourselves … when our once only resources are done and gone … what will save us then …

Indeed, the fundamental proof of our resilience is our ability to create and support jobs.

Since 2007, we have created almost 900 000 jobs in this country, in a period when twenty eight million new people joined the jobless queues world-wide.   … now this is provable … 500,000 of that 900,000 figure are part-time jobs … see here ..

Our national prospects in the Asian Century are bright.

As the centre of global economic gravity shifts east, it shifts towards Australia.

Our diplomatic and trade successes in China last month, our improved relationship with India, our strengthening economic ties with Indonesia and our flourishing alliance with the United States – these are all proof that our plan to be one of the winners in the Asian Century is bearing fruit.

However – and this is key – while Australia is stable, resilient and close to centres of growth, the wider world economy is quite a different story.

There is serious, persistent weakness in global growth – and continued volatility in the global economy.

To take one example, a resource-rich nation like Canada has only grown by five per cent in total over the last five years.

The advanced economies grew at only 1.2 per cent last year and global growth reached only around 3 per cent.

This global weakness creates important economic pressures in Australia.

The contrast between our stability and resilience and the volatility and fragility of so much of the rest of the world is a reason for the continuing strength of the Australian dollar –consider this.

Today over 30 central banks around the world hold Australian currency in their reserves. … this is nothing to brag about as the returns on those investments harm us and benefits them …

The increasing importance of our currency for central bank reserves worldwide is recognised by the International Monetary Fund.  … this is ego stuff and underpins just how much Swan and his goons don’t understand …

Later this year, the IMF will begin quarterly reporting on central bank holdings of seven currencies and the Australian dollar will be one of them.

This shows we are a great investment, but that comes at a price.

The dollar’s strength puts pressures on our economy, particularly our trade-exposed industries.   … what a trade-off … prosperity for Australians in lieu of a stake at the world table where MP’s and diplomat’s can party all night on the taxpayers dime …

It would be irresponsible simply to wait in hope for these pressures to ease.

So the Government has a plan to create and support jobs, based on our five pillars of productivity, designed to seize the opportunities that proximity to Asia creates.

This back drop to our Budget decision making – Australia’s resilience, global weakness, a persistently high dollar – have been known for some time.

What is new is how strong the revenue pressures on the nation’s Budget are.

We must plan for these strengthening pressures – and that is a key part of preparing our Budget for this year.

The persistent high dollar, as well as squeezing exporting jobs, also squeezes the profits of exporting firms: with lower profits for these companies comes lower company tax going to Government.

We can’t assume this will change soon.

The high dollar is also placing competitive pressures on firms here, who face new pressures from cheaper imports – holding down prices across the board, with the high dollar making it hard for these firms to pass on price increases, holding down profits – and in turn holding down company tax.  … hells bells … someone gave her a quick class in reality … but does she understand all that it means …

Consumers do benefit, but many businesses are doing it tough.

All this means the data on our economy now reveals a significant new fact.

This is the striking and continuing divergence between what economists refer to as real GDP growth and nominal GDP growth.

My best shorthand description of those terms is this.

Real GDP growth is growth in the volume of the economy.

The actual activity in the economy, how many jobs there are, the quantity of infrastructure we build, the amount of goods and services we export – how many tonnes of coal, how many international students pay for a course here, how many houses are built.

Nominal GDP growth counts this growth in volume and it also counts growth of the prices of all these things.

Today, real GDP is growing solidly – we’re creating more jobs, exporting more goods and services and buying and selling more from each other, just as we planned.   … all underpinned by the creation of new debt to fund new policies introduce over the last few years …

However prices are growing at a slower rate than is usual for this stage of the economic cycle, a slower rate than was forecast – and so nominal GDP growth for this current year is significantly slower than was forecast and we expect nominal GDP growth for future years to be revised down.

The current data shows nominal GDP growth after the first half of the 2012-13 year was an annual rate of two per cent.

At Budget last year, we had forecast nominal GDP to grow at five per cent.

What’s changed?

While the prices of our exports continue to be lower than their recent peaks because of weak global demand and increasing global supply, the prices of imports are now lower than forecast because of the strength of our dollar.

The prices of goods produced at home are also lower than forecast because competition from imports is so fierce.

This is now putting so much downward pressure on prices that growth in nominal GDP is actually lower than growth in real GDP.

What’s more, this has now been true for nearly an entire financial year – since the beginning of the June quarter last year.

This has never happened for such a long period in the whole half a century and more of the National Accounts.

Not during the global financial crisis, not during the 1991 or 1982 recessions.

Not even during the Menzies “credit squeeze” of 1961, which was effectively a deliberate policy attempt to slow price growth, do we find a similar effect.

Now, that’s a long explanation of a pretty technical fact.  … so – all this confirms is that the modelling the RBA and Treasury have been usuing is out of date and not upgraded with new thinking …

But for the Budget bottom line, it’s a very meaningful fact – because, naturally enough, companies don’t pay tax on volume, they pay tax on value, which is driven by price.

The Pharaoh might have kept one fifth part of the grain from the field but the Tax Commissioner collects in dollars and cents.  … fanciful commentary – not serious enough …

So even if the economy is growing as much as expected, when prices are growing much less than expected, tax grows much less too.

The “bottom line for the Budget bottom line” is this: the amount of tax revenue the Government has collected so far this financial year is already $7.5 billion less than was forecast last October.   … that just proves the point – the forecasts were wrong …

Treasury now estimates that this reduction will increase to around $12 billion by the end of the financial year.   … can you believe this number … it changes every month … the real numbers released on the monthly Dept Finance and Deregulation point to a deficit between $15-$20 billion … the $12 billion is not trustworthy …

This unusually low revenue, which wasn’t forecast even a few months ago, creates a significant fiscal gap over the Budget period.

Put simply, spending is controlled but the amount of tax money coming to the government is growing much slower than expected.

Inevitably, confronted with the facts, the economic simpletons and sloganeers will squirm and throw in arguments to distract.   … no-no-no … economic simpletons … that is the pot calling the kettle black …

First, you will be told that revenue for the next financial year is still expected to be more than this financial year. That’s true – at the same time our population will be larger, more people will be on the age pension, health costs will continue to rise.   … the forecasters predicted revenue growth from the MRRT and Carbon tax and it did not eventuate – that was the first of many errors that concertina themselves into this train-wreck …

Indeed the growth in health and in the age pension will be far higher than the growth in tax money. … that’s because you handed out carbon tax refunds and pension increased based of bad forecasts …

So revenue growth will be less than natural growth in key areas of expenditure and is spectacularly lower than reasonably predicted.   … blah-blah-blah … waffle at best …

It is the failure of growth in tax money to match reasonable predictions that creates the Budget challenge.   … unreasonable more likely …

Second, you will be told it isn’t about less tax money in but about spending.   … you know its coming and using the double negative argument to try to lessen the impact is about as foolhardy as you can get ….

However, as informed commentators like Tim Colebatch pointed out last week, excluding east Asia, total government spending in Australia is already the second lowest in the developed world. … is that just Federal, or does it include State and Local …

Of the advanced Western economies, only Switzerland spends a smaller share of its economy on government than does Australia.

The total size of government here is less than the US, less than the UK.

Not as measured in revenue either, measured in spending.   … is that per capita or gross numbers …

And let me reiterate, for the future we will continue to match new spending in the Budget with savings.

Given all this, tax money down, spending controlled, the question for Budget planners is difficult to answer, but simple to state: how, and how fast, to fill that significant fiscal gap?

Some of the above factors will return to trend – overall, revenue is being revised downward over the coming four years, not permanently.

However in part, this is a return to normality – returning to long-term averages.

Australia will not go back to the extraordinary revenue peaks of “mining boom mark I” from 2002-03 to 2007-08.  … I give up … just accept there is little that you can believe in anything Gillard has said here …

While we should expect revenue to improve as we move to the production and export phase of the current mining boom, it’s clear that the extraordinary revenue peaks of the mid-2000s won’t be repeated.

The overall story: by 2005-06 the share of the economy taken in tax reached a peak of 24.2 per cent – compared to 22.4 in 1996 and 22.2 as we reported in our last update in October.

The huge profits of that time meant that company tax revenue reached an astonishing 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2006-07 compared to a share of 4.5 per cent of GDP last financial year – a fall of around $10 billion in company tax a year.

Capital gains tax was 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2006-07 – last financial year it was 0.4 per cent.

We collect less than one-third of the amount compared to seven years ago and in dollar terms the drop in tax collection is around $15 billion a year.

Quite apart from any other factor, remaining competitive in the contemporary global economy doesn’t allow us simply to turn back time on tax collection by dialling up tax revenue to these levels.

If I can summarise a complex picture in a few brush strokes, it’s these:

The prices for what Australian companies sell overseas are lower, imports are cheaper, local competition is fierce.

Those things add up to business making less profit than planned.

That puts pressures on our stable and resilient economy and it is one reason businesses and workers still need to work so hard to get ahead.

When businesses make less profit than planned, it also means Government gets less money in tax than expected.

That’s the big challenge for the nation in this Budget – and it defines the decisions the Government’s confronting as we put the Budget together.

Once again, to break this complex picture down in to a personal story.

Imagine a wage earner, John, employed in the same job throughout the last 20 years.

For a period in 2003 to 2007 every year his employer gave him a sizeable bonus.

He was grateful but in his bones knew it wouldn’t last.

The bonuses did stop and John was told that his income would rise by around five per cent each year over the years to come.

That’s the basis for his financial plans.

Now, very late, John has been told he won’t get those promised increases for the next few years – but his income will get back up after that to where he was promised it would be.

What is John’s rational reaction?

To respond to this temporary loss of income by selling his home and car, dropping his private health insurance, replacing every second evening meal with two-minute noodles.

Of course not.

A rational response would be to make some responsible savings, to engage in some moderate borrowing, to get through to the time of higher income with his family and lifestyle intact and then to use the higher income to pay off the extra borrowing undertaken in the lean years.

Running a nation is always more complex than running a family budget and analogies only work so far.

But I trust the nature of the challenge we confront is now clearer, understood within the framework of the purpose of our fiscal policy and the detail of our medium-term fiscal strategy – and I trust that all would acknowledge the Government has some serious decisions to make and announce in the coming two weeks.

As we make those decisions let me be crystal clear about what we will and won’t do.

We won’t, during this time of reduced revenue, fail the future by not making the wise investments that will make us a stronger and smarter nation.

Better school funding and school improvement will not be jeopardised.

Our nation cannot afford to leave children behind or to leave our nation’s future economy limping behind the pack, unable to attract the high wage, high skill jobs of the future.

To return to John, you would not expect him to stop funding his son’s top quality schooling or his daughter’s university studies.

He would know that to do so would be to condemn his family to a poorer future.

And we won’t fail to make the wise investments that make us a fairer nation.

DisabilityCare must not be jeopardised.

A fragmented, unfair, inefficient system hurting 400 000 Australians with disability and their families and carers – and putting at risk anyone who could acquire a disability – cannot be left in place.

Once again, we wouldn’t expect John to deal with his temporary loss of income by failing to properly support the care of his wife, who has a profound disability.

What is more, these necessary investments are affordable if we make smart decisions.

So the way we proceed with these investments is to fund new structural spending with new structural savings.

But, because we now are confronted with new facts and far more significant reductions in tax money than was expected, we are going through the process now of making decisions to spend less in some areas than we had hoped, to raise more in revenue in some areas than we had planned.

Guiding us as we make these decisions is the key principle of burden-sharing.

Because I lead a Labor Government, I lead a Government which understands that the whole of society benefits from the services Government provides.

In turn we believe that the whole of society should carry a fair share of the burden of funding Government, that the whole of society shares the burden of these saving decisions.

The more who share the work, the lighter the load for all.

Business, families, institutions.

Everyone benefits – so everyone contributes.

In the national interest, for the common good.

Now, there are no easy choices.

Of course as a Labor Prime Minister, I find these decisions both urgent and grave.

This revenue discussion is not historical, it’s very contemporary.

There is new news here compared to six months ago – and new news here compared even to three months ago.

Therefore, I have expressly determined we need to have every reasonable option on the table to meet the needs of the times, even options previously taken off the table.

The nation and the Government must have maximum flexibility to deal with these complex – and rapidly changing – events.

That is my approach.

In the Budget, the Government will do the right thing by the nation, the right thing for the long-term.

We will save responsibly, even when that means spending less on things which are important and valuable.

We will invest wisely for the future.

No one will be singled out, the burden of our decisions will be shared across the whole Australian community.

We will not cut to the bone.

That is the Government’s approach – and it is a bright dividing line in Australian politics today.

I began by saying that this Budget will be about a challenge and about a plan.

It will also be about a choice.

Our opponents and their friends crudely flaunt the bitter language of the cut throat and the brandished axe.

We govern for all Australians, we govern to strengthen the economy and to spread the benefits to all.

Those values illuminate modern Labor every day we govern.

I thank you for the opportunity to discuss them with you today.

It was lengthy and I apologise about that – but you had to get the bullshit context in the message and I did not want to allow for ambiguity.  If one was to go trough paragraph by paragraph, point by freakin point, lie by lie – we’d be here for a long time as critiqued above.

However – Opposition Treasury spokesperson Joe Hockey came out and gave one of his best response comments ever – watch video of his response here[A full transcript of speech is not yet available.]

One cannot count the lies masked throughout Gillard’s lengthy address – the biggest lie was again the reason for the revenue shortfalls.

If a Government uses forward estimates based upon unproven new taxes – [i.e. the MRRT and Carbon Tax] – and uses that forecast to spend in the current and next years budget, the Government deserves to be punished for the fallout.   More importantly – the people need to know the truth.

Gillard has not had reduced budget revenues – she has over the last three years had revenue increases year on year amounting to:

  1. 2010-11: – 5.9%,
  2. 2011-12: – 9.1%,
  3. 2012-13: – 10.5% [Budget Forecast as at Feb 2013.]

This is against an average of 6.98% growth in revenues year on year since 1996-97.

Any attempt to tell it different is criminal in its intent.   Company Directors would face court and jail terms if that tried to hoodwink shareholders with a lie and misrepresentations like this.

This outrage once again shows how Members of Parliament are at the bottom end of regulatory policing – it shows just how little private sector experience they have and how that inexperience gets the Nation to the position we are now in.

Gillard used a illusionary man named ‘John’ to help paint her analogy to explain the Government’s predicament – it was all spin and polish based on a cover-up to blame the economy and GFC for the reduced revenues.   Her speech writer is a novice and also does not understand what it is they do not understand.

In an exhaustive extraction of RBA Budget data the following Table with Chart provides hard data of revenue and expenditure growth (%), and in $dollar terms since 1996-97.   [Click on Image to enlarge in a new window.]

In coming days economists will all have their say – and they have their political sway that will dictate what they write – what is published here is done so without such malice but an exposed truth.   Gillard is a criminal and that is my gripe – how she became the Prime Minister is what I want someone to explain given her history … Australia needs to know that truth as well …

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The EYE-BALL Guru …

EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Investment pipeline” – disappearing before his eyes – where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -

April 23, 2013 Comments off
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Latest GURU Posts:


- 21st Apr – Wayne Swan’s legitimacy – He Says … ‘high A$ causes $7.5b hole since Oct ’12’ – He’s a unique type of idiot  -


- 14th Apr – The Debt Clock ticks … Tic Toc … – Gillard just spent another $3,000 – counting the real cost of this ALP Disaster -


- 5th Apr – Superannuation 2013-14 –  the Government’s new Slush Fund – Proposed Changes show SWAN and SHORTEN’s stupidity -


- 4th Apr - Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations -
– Part III – Superannuation – The Future Fund -


- 3rd Apr – Government not happy about its tax collect – Claims Tax Minimisation deserves ‘Naming and Shaming’ -


- 31st Mar – The Cyprus Bail-out -


- 31st Mar – Australia’s Debt – and the idiots Managing the Treasury -


- 20th Feb – Australia’s Parliamentary Remunerations – Part II – Entitlements and Allowances -


- 13th Feb – Australia’s Public Sector Remunerations Part I – Parliamentarians “Base-Salary” and “Additional” entitlements -


- 31st Jan – The Devil is in the Detail, there is none – Gillard chooses shock, awe & Spin over Policy -


- 23rd Jan – The Turmoil is Already here – We just have to accept what is coming -


- 22nd Jan – The Turmoil is beginning – Japan’s Economic Stimulus to tip the scales -


To see more GURU posts: – click here …


Title:
– Wayne Swan’s – “Investment pipeline” -
– disappearing before his eyes -
- where does he go for his next ‘bunny excuse’ -
| Author: EYE-BALL Guru | 23rd Apr 2013 |
Afallback policy defense for Wayne Swan has been his rhetorical ‘Investment Pipeline’ argument – telling all and sundry who want to tear his house down that the rest of the world wants to invest in Australia.

Swan continually mentions a figure of $500 billion over the last 2-3 years as the value of the ‘pipeline investment’ lined up to get their hands on a piece of Australia.

Those who understand true economics have doubted Swan’s prophecy based on escalating labour costs bought on by the continued high A$ value.  Many have told Mr Swan that to rely on this so-called ‘pipeline Investment’ is to play casino with Australia’s financial future.

Being the idiot he did and does not understand what it is he does not understand …

Swan’s excuses for his budget failings continued ad nauseum relying on the ‘Treasurer of the Year’ gong to convince people and his own party he knew what he was doing.   Swan’s legacy as th e ‘worst Treasurer ever’ will ensure Australians will forever think of Swan as the idiot who allowed the rest of the world to hook up their backdoor syphon hoses and rip honest wealth from all Australians – Swan and his RBA clowns have stood by and clapped them as they did so – and all to a need for him to remain internationally popular and have someone to talk to at G-20 conferences.

Idiot’s like Swan rarely get to serve in such a high station – and Australia will regret it for a hundred years.

Reported today is another $2 billion mining project that has been mothballed – read the story here -

A list of mining projects that have been scrapped in recent months – (as reported in story above) – include:

  1. Arafura Resources rare earth processing plant in Whyalla, value $2 billion and 1000 jobs,
  2. Woodside abandons its $50bn Browse Basin project – value $50 billion and some 10,000 jobs,
  3. BHP Billiton shelved the $30bn Olympic Dam mine expansion – 2-3,000 jobs lost
  4. BHP Billiton shelved the $20bn Port Hedland harbour project –  2-3,000 jobs lost

Then we have the oil refinery closure/sales:

  1. Shell have closed four (4) of their eight (8) refineries over the past 18 months – see story here
  2. Caltex have also used the high A$ value to close refineries – see story here
  3. All that can be certain is that there will be more closures due to the high labour costs and high A$ value when decisions are made about upgrading or closing Australian refineries – see story here -

What about the Auto Industry and Government funding received to keep it afloat -

  1. Ford and Toyota job losses reported 14 months ago – see story here – 1,000’s jobs lost -
  2. And more recent job losses at Holden’s operations – see story here –  500+ jobs lost -
  3. Then there is the continued subsidies paid to keep remaining Auto Industry operations afloat – some $2 billion a year … take away those subsidies and can you imagine the job losses – it can be said that subsidies = jobs … doe sit really work in the long term?

Then there is the Manufacturing, Tourism, Agriculture, and Retail industries where job losses in recent years are in the 10,000’s … perhaps even higher … these job losses throw plenty of scepticism at the un-employment numbers and how the Government is hiding the ongoing job losses.  Estimates have Australia’s true unemployment rate in the high teen’s.

Previous posts on the unemployment, part-time verses full-time job creations, and the monthly reduction in hours worked – linked here – prove that there is a slow decline in  full-time work availability, and an increasing workforce participation where employees are working more than a single job to try and make ends meet.

See EYE-BALL Guru story here – Table of Employment growth reproduced below:

Click on Image to enlarge in a new window:

When are Treasurer Swan and the rest of the Government Caucus going to wake up and realise Gillard’s socialist agenda is doing untold harm to Australia’s future prosperity, and condemning future generations to a poverty driven lifestyle.

Quality of life is already in decline with workplace health related issues, like stress, overworked, relationship breakdowns, and the like all on the rise.  Employers expect more for less and the demands being placed on the workforce to prop up the Government spending programs has a doomsday scenario.

Swan’s ‘JOBS-JOBS-JOBS’ mantra has come with a Federal Government debt explosion growth of some $300 billion,  and the idiots in charge believes it is all OK …

Swan wants a blow job from every Australian as thanks for what the ‘Treasurer of the Year’ has achieved.

Swan sees no wrong here … he trusts his advisors, the Treasury and RBA bureaucrats who tell him what a good job he has done – and RBA Governor Glen Stevens has just been rewarded with another three-year appointment for the blow Job he gives Swan every other week.

The dyke is leaking and Swan’s attempts to stop the carnage will fall to the next guy.  Swan will ride off into the sunset with Gillard and her ‘handbag’ brigade all drinking pina colada’s, hugging and rejoicing with one another because they get to walk away from the mess left behind.

Anybody who does not understand the criminal intent here is equally complicit – ALP supporters who do not want to open their eyes is equally responsible.

The Independents Oakeshott, Windsor, Wilkie, and now Slipper and Thompson who sit amidst their numbers are the most serious of offenders … they could have called an end to this carnage at any time but have elected to keep Gillard in power.

From Windsor’s position, he is the most guilty of personal vengeance and selfish perspectives – he has never forgiven the Nationals for what they did to him and that grudge has ruled his heart during a time when he helped hold the ‘balance of power’.  Windsor does not deserve to be treated well by history, but equally to blam for allowing the mess Gillard has created.

Oakeshott is similarly afflicted – he and Windsor often speak about the magnitude of legislation passed during this parliamentary term – the issue should be about the quality of the legislation, not the quantity – and this Government has failed miserably on all its major policy initatives like:

  1. Border Protection,
  2. The Carbon Tax and pricing modules,
  3. The MRRT and its watered down effect to appease the miners all to a cause to gain re-election,
  4. The Gonski reforms,
  5. The NDIS reforms,

Every one of these policies hs not been funded or had the revenues in place before they were legislated …

If our elected Leaders understood the collective pressures these policies would place on the budget, as opposed to accepting Swan’s assurances of the funding in place,  they would perhaps of asked more questions.

There is a lesson here to be learnt by everybody – minority Governments never work – the trade off’s in obtaining the votes is dangerous and always open for abuse … if one was to truly count the spending in the Independent electorates over the course of the Gillard Government – how would that spending stack up against other Coalition electorates?

Last night it was reported that Gillard, Swan and Wong are now advocating a view that – ‘now is not the time to cut spending, but a time to match new funding with savings’ … see David Uren story here -

Unbelievable … this new austerity concerns is as false as Gillards morality and all a part of a new McTurd [McTernern]  election stunt …

Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.  Thank you


Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam.


The EYE-BALL Guru …

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