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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – The Tears of a Prime Minister –
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Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 24th Mar - An Example of bureaucracy gone mad - - 10th Mar = The Carbon Tax – Post Election … - 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop 28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View - 6th Feb – Corruption - 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - The Tears of a Prime Minister - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 19th May 2013 | |
| T HIS IS TRULY AMAZING – AND WORTH THE EFFORT….MATH QUIZ: Reveals your favourite movie!!
I did it in my head, then on paper, and finally on a calculator just to confirm my numerical capabilities. Each time I got the same answer, and sure enough it IS my very favourite movie EVER! You will be AMAZED at how scary true and accurate this test is. Movie List:
I received this joke by e-mail in mid February. The strangest part is the sender was a former ALP member and Candidate. Such is the disaffection for this government. On November 24, 2007 I worked with this fellow at Narraweena Public School in the seat of McKellar, passing out ALP how to vote info. To each person as they walked out I said “Have a nice night” and to those who took ALP paraphernalia off me, I commented “you will have a good night”. Recently I have been asked to enter a sweep on election night what time will Julia make her concession speech? At the last election I predicted that the result would be unknown at the time of closing the national tally room on the Saturday night, I predicted the result would be called mid Sunday afternoon. I was only out by 2 plus weeks, and I believed that Windsor, Oakschott and Katter would join a coalition government. As the Coalition won 73 seats, that appeared to be consistent. For some time, I have been doubting this parliament will last until September 14. Now I am convinced it will. To hear Abbott last Thursday affirm September 14, means that the opposition are working to this schedule. Therefore the polling stations will close on the east coast at 6pm, and meaningful data will be available from 7.30pm. By 8pm Central Australia polling stations will be showing a tiny glimmer of hope for the ALP, but by 8.30pm when the first data comes in from the West Coast the East Coast will have about 65% of votes counted, and a 9% swing in Qld, a 8% swing in NSW, and a 6.5% swing in Victoria and 5% swing in Tasmania will see the coalition already having won 75 seats. At that time in Tasmania the Coalition will have won 3 of the 5 seats. At that time it will be announced Julia Gillard is expected to address the nation in about 10 minutes. It will be about 9pm before the cameras finally cross to the PM. There will be no tears. By that time our Julia will have cried herself out. She will be stoic, and composed. She will have been marginally conceded her own seat of Lalor in Melbourne’s Central Western suburbs with a reduced majority. Her current 1st preference vote is over 64%. Knowing she is to vacate the lodge, she will want to retire, and will definitely state she will throw open the ALP leadership. Wayne Swann will lose his seat of Lilley. Kevin Rudd will be regularly featured on Channel 7. Even for him it will be uncomfortable. He will refrain from saying I told you so, and he will be constantly asked if he will seek the leadership only to respond he will do what it takes to rebuild the ALP brand. What he really wants is to break the grip of the ACTU and several unions that include AWU, TWU and ETU. Prime Minister Abbott will be an ally in that cause, at that time. I bumped into John Murphy today. He is the ALP member for Reid. That seat is right in the coalition targets. I asked him how he is doing? He replied OK. He was betting on the gallops and while ever the politician that was his focus. He asked where I live, and I told him in Grayndler. He mentioned what Albo was up to. They always assume you are a stool pigeon. This week parliament has been illuminating. On Tuesday Swan gave a rather commanding budget speech, but afterwards I felt very hollow. On Thursday I was truly shocked how Abbott turned his speech into a campaign launch. And it was so effective. His promise on conclusion to work for the people of Australia, looking straight into the camera. Simply so effective. This brings me to the tears, and the sad part. For the next 4 months we are basically rudderless. A government only interested in improving their electoral stocks, an opposition hell bent on meticulous planning and no bad publicity, ipso facto by election day the only real issue is how can you cast a senate vote, so that the coalition is kept in check. On Thursday morning our PM was nearly in tears talking about the NDIS in Parliament. It is to be her epitaph. Sorry Julia, as hard as people may try you don’t get to write your own history. It is hard to expunge the Schools Building program. We will go on giving a Gonski for decades to come. Most importantly, Disability care is still rather conceptual, and the detail is still to come. On March 11, 1983 John Malcolm Fraser gave his concession speech to Bob Hawke, and nearly broke down in tears. Hey Mal, life wasn’t meant to be easy! So choke on it! Thirteen years later Paul Keating knew his time was up, and his speech was so confident, it was even vain glorious. That what I see for our first female PM. The tears will be in trying to turn things around. By 9pm on September 14th there will be no tears left. John Murphy turns 63 in a fortnight. By September he will be just shy of 15 years as MHR. He can retire gracefully. In late September Julia Gillard turns 52. She will have 15 years as a MHR and over 3 years as PM. She will constitute our 7th surviving former PM. 52 is just too young to retire. Any job offers out there? |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – An Example of bureaucracy gone mad –
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 10th Mar = The Carbon Tax – Post Election … - 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop 28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View - 6th Feb – Corruption - 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - An Example of bureaucracy gone mad - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 24th Mar 2013 | |
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| The following is an example of the due process involved when dealing with Public Service bureaucracy when a long-term unemployed and mature aged person applies for employment within the public service.
The ease at which rejection is decided upon by the HR Departments within the Public Service ranks leaves applicants with only a single course of action – that is to pursue discrimination options to force the HR personnel into a contest to justify their selection criteria and attitudes, and how the system protects from within. What follows is a presentation of the documentary evidence needed to pursue such an anti-discrimination application.
List of Annexures – copies not provided:
Application to the Federal Court:
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – The Carbon Tax – Post Election …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 7th Mar – Wayne Swan – Please Stop 28th Feb – The Australian Labor Party View - 6th Feb – Corruption - 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: The Carbon Tax – Post Election … | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 10th Mar 2013 | |
| The Australia Industry Group (AIG) now favours converting our Carbon Tax to an Emissions Trading System (ETS). That means to allow the electricity producers to buy carbon credits on the world market to satisfy their tax liability and thereby offset.
Carbon Credits sell for 20% of Australia’s existing tax in Europe.This is several things. Tony Abbott has promised to get rid of the tax. What does that mean? Would adopting the AIG recommendation represent a broken promise, to keep the tax but allow ETS offset? The way things are going the coalition will have such a large majority in the lower house, it will not matter much, and Christine Milne’s promise “over my dead body” may well be her epitaph. The state results in WA overnight simply highlights how the ALP will struggle to realistically expect to win a single seat from the opposition, and their losses will be massive. The electorate wants to expunge the last 3 years as fast as possible For me, it is only about the micro economic reform that is required to attract manufacturing sector back to Australia. In a perfect world industry should expect to pay closer to 20c a kilowatt hour for energy, rather than closer to 30c. The wage structure is a secondary problem. And as for the currency, that stays in the too hard basket. It should not stay in the too hard basket, but we are a function of free markets and that means Quantitative Easing in both Europe, USA and don’t forget good old Japan. China are currency manipulators (but for that matter what is Quantitative Easing)? Maybe Quantitative Easing is a nice way to call Currency Manipulation by our NATO allies. From the ALP perspective, they just need revenues to fund their wanton spending program. There truly is a “Goddess of Size” or “Recklessness of Large Numbers” about this government. The Minister for Health is simply incapable of quoting any programme as a per annum cost. The politician requires her to talk about a 10 or 5 year programme costing essentially 5 times or 10 times as much. The Treasurer too loves to talk in “over the Forward estimates”. The treasury project forward estimates over 4 years. Forward estimates can be very confusing, it means several assumptions like constant GDP or inflation or unemployment. Shift one by a modicum, and what is the outcome? A 1% fall in Government revenues has led to a $22 billion change in deficit this year, so far. Extrapolate that over 4 years. This is the very essence of what most current debate misses. What does any spending programme really mean to tax take, and will it further erode incentive? The Business Council of Australia (and their fraternal twin Deloitte Access) are all about the road to fiscal repair. I too think that is truly great. I tend to think of it as the Scottish Rite. Waste not! want not! This comes to the nonsense of costing of programmes. To say that wiping out Carbon Tax and MRRT will leave a hole in the revenue side is fair enough, but when it comes to finding savings that is a work in progress, and simply can’t be costed until it is fully project scoped. What will 20,000 jobs in Canberra save? In the first year not much after paying for redundancy costs. Moreover it does not happen overnight. The way it rationally might occur is finding recurring savings of 10% per annum until efficiency is truly obvious. This is where NSW State is currently at. In the first 12 months, there was a bit of crumbling at the edges, selling surplus assets (like surplus Roads and Traffic Authority land), attacking volunteer fire fighters Workers Comp, draconian tightening in health budgets, so more beds were closed, but now larger strides are occurring in bureaucracy. Flatter command structures, wholesale layoffs. Queensland are a year behind NSW. We await details on Costello’s audit where so far predictably all we know is sale of assets to cut the interest cost fiscal drag of accumulated deficit is the way forward to regaining their AAA rating. Despite what occurred in Victoria this week, should Geoff Shaw cross the floor and bring down the government would a resultant poll see a change of government. It is hard to imagine, but he has already guaranteed to support both supply and confidence. Enough said. Reverting back to my original posit, if the Carbon tax stays with ETS offset would that be a breach of Tony Abbott’s promise? It is a flawed question! It is only about integrity. Therefore Mr Opposition leader you might think to address this before going to the polls. What do you mean? |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Wayne Swan – Please Stop
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
7th Mar – The Australian Labor Party View - 28th Feb – Corruption - 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - Wayne Swan – Please stop … | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 7th Mar 2013 | |
| Nominal v Real GDP is now the culprit for the Federal budget deficit in financial year ending June 2013 (not economic mismanagement). A year where it was cast in stone that the government would return the budget to surplus.
Nominal GDP is at current prices, while Real GDP attempts to adjust for constant prices to measure economic growth without inflation included. There is always a statistical error, in any process but that is a whole different story in math. I am just sick and tired of the blatant dishonesty. Before last July the mining industry forecast MRRT payable way below Treasury estimates of their receipts. So who is right? The Treasurer is trying to call the roller coaster ride in spot iron ore prices, real GDP, and other observable indicators like National Accounts nominal GDP. The Treasurer wants to take credit for 3.1% year on year GDP growth released in the National Accounts, but disown the revenue shortfalls on profit based taxes. He admits about 20% of the shortfall is in MRRT. This only makes things worse. Tax Planning is constantly eroding Government revenues, and what are the financial bureaucrats doing about it? This can all only mean;
The constituency perceives that you are totally inept. No argument will sway that perception. Those on most modest incomes are marginalised, brought to the lowest common denominator, why should I try? Those paying their taxes fairly (they can’t afford fancy tax planning) suffer while those who control massive franchises, pay elective taxes. This election can’t come fast enough. Link to transcript of Wayne Swan’s Press Conference re the National Accounts figures out yesterday. |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – “The Australian Labor Party View”
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 28th Feb – Corruption - 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - - 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour - 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full - 3rd Oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! - 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! - 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. - 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - - 6th Aug: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? 21st July: – Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - “The Australian Labor Party View” - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 28th Feb 2013 | |
| Mark Latham’s imminent book launch on repositioning the Australian Labor Party Brand. A suggested prelude – What is a true believer?
Formation of the labour movement around the world is rather a unique gradation. In Britain there were the Chartists, and the Tolpuddle Martyrs. In the United States they had their ward bosses and for many the Democrat led Confederate Presidency Jefferson Davis of South Carolina were supporting slavery, while the Republican base under Abe Lincoln was anti slavery, to the point that the polarity is now often thought reversed. Large parts of the wards on the East Coast of the Union, fought for the north, where those same ward bosses created military company’s and divisions (see escaped Australian convict Thomas Meagher become General Thomas Francis Meagher of the Union). In Australia we had the democratic uprising at Eureka, the Tolpuddle martyrs sent to Sydney as convicts before being pardoned and then the famous shearer’s strike of 1891 see Link here. A fight against the squatocracy. The history is a long interesting yarn, disputed and comparable here but far too often subject to personal perspective and prejudice. The history is roughly 150 years maybe 5 generations. Political issues are a generational thing. Throughout the first half of the 20th century we saw the ALP brand galvanised by conscription and issues of British Empire and a party of labourers (class warfare struggle), whose credo was condensed in “fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay “ or quite possibly reflected in “the living wage” or Sunshine Harvester case in Industrial Relations Law. There was many growing up problems, including Billy Hughes or Joe Lyons and Jack Lang. That was my grandparent generation’s perspective. Coping through the rise of mass industrialisation, mass production, the Henry Ford generation. My parent generation were largely what is now thought to be the hope generation. Born in era of WWI, grew up in the depression, served in WWII and lived rather modestly appreciating honesty and integrity in politics. Not only hope through war and desperation but a play on Bob Hope the famous tongue in cheek entertainer of that time. After the great split of 1949, came 23 years in opposition, and the great healing under Whitlam that saw Vince Gair depart the Democratic Labor Party. (A party based on anti communism). Throughout that time there was an air of anti communism. “A red under the bed”. Many ALP supporters either took umbrage in dignity in being in opposition, or secretly admired Sir Robert Menzies, because his demeanour was middle ground, the very use of the term Liberal Party (centre ground) and his often quoted “our friends at the unions”. So I was born into this era of the Orange and the Green. The Orange were the White Anglo Saxon Protestants, who were the ruling class, who supported private schools, played rugby, wore white collars, while the Green where the Papists. They included secular schools, played Rugby League, wore blue collars, and so on. (That particular green logic goes back about 400 years to the Myrtle of Ireland). The Catholics slurred the Wasps by calling them proddy footers and the Wasps retaliated by calling the Catholics left footers. There were more chasms and distrust within the left. My father always voted ALP, and my mother always voted conservative. My father would never ever join a union, (infiltrated by commo’s) and in most ways the ALP was extremely divided. Domestically a fierce mental engagement of wagging fingers and pointing, the occasional slammed door, but all very gentile. Quite civilised. According to Kim Beazley Snr. Education Minister under Whitlam (19/12/1972 – 11/11/1975) the major contributor to healing of the ALP split of 1951 was funding of universities and non state schools. The Education Minister Beazley was awarded 5 honorary doctorates by various universities. On the other hand in my article Hegemony, neo fascist groups claim the education sector was infiltrated by Marxist professors since the 1970’s. From a different facet but notably still in the education sector, the claim for a “fairs day’s work for a fair day’s pay” became ”equal pay for equal work”. This was a generational change, changing focus from workers rights to women’s rights. The depression generation ruling class were replaced by the baby boomers generation and “It’s Time”. I personally did not support conscription. I was 16 when Whitlam ended conscription. The communist domino theory simply did not cut. “All the way with LBJ”. At age 10 we were marched from school to the main street and asked to wave hand drawn Australian Flags at the passing cavalcade of visiting president of the United States of America, Lyndon Baines Johnson. Vietnam was a civil war, not a war of ideology. Today universally it is considered a war of anti – colonisation. What did I know, I was only a kid, maybe, my thoughts were representative of the social events of the time. A rising draft dodger group. The nightly television coverage of the moratorium. By embracing academic virtue, the ALP broadened their base away from traditional strongholds like Builder’s Labourers (BLF), Storeman and Packers, Metal workers (AMU) and other affiliated groupings (AWU). Essentially labour or blue collar. Academics are rarely considered blue collar workers, more like professional classes. Professions were welcomed into the ALP. The middle ground. Under the next major successful spurt of the ALP led government by Hawke and Keating, we achieved a whole new set of working class values. They redefined Ben Chifley’s post War World II car policy. That saw massive move away from manufacturing and the rise of the professions. Only by way of example BHP was to close their Waratah steel mill and Holden closed their Pagewood production facility then their Acacia Ridge assembly facility, and therefore how many ALP heart land constituent were effected or disenfranchised? Some new manufacturing jobs were created in the state of the art Holden Engine Company, but it was largely mechanised. Throughout those decades immigration attacked workers pay. For each increase in employee supply there was decreased wages, so the coalition advocated large immigration intake to keep down excess claim by the unions, and the Unions insisted the ALP counter this by reducing immigration intake. The ALP had a shrinking natural support base. There were other issues at work throughout the entire generations. The 48 hour week of the 19th century became the 44 hour week then 40 hour week, now 37.5 hour week approaching a 35 hour week and how low could it go? Those at the most marginal loved the overtime paid working a 60 hour week, but still nonsense hours worked hardly changed but hours paid was higher through penalty rates. The unions had achieved Holiday Pay, Sick Pay, Long Service Leave and other workers entitlements, and again how far could this go, to a welfare state? Union support waned. So today the first recurring pattern observable is the apparent chaos within the ALP. Consider;
Now might have its genesis in 1993, the inaugural and ultimate victory speech of PM Paul Keating in 1993, when he called his win “one for the true believer”. The electorate threw him out in 1996, 3 years later. His “true believer” concept is now variously considered the “little Aussie Battler”.
… who will sell their soul for a fast buck or government funding. So what is a true believer? I for one do not want to be part of any of this. Marginal ALP seats will get washed away at the next Federal election, and safe ALP seats will be deemed marginal, just like the State results in Qld in 2012 and NSW 2011. Or 1949, Or 1931. True Believer is a soliloquy, often labelled apathetic or ignorant (don’t know – don’t care). The political party needs a real catharsis, a real soul searching, and I for one recommend any and all debate. Never again should the people they attempt to represent be ever so short changed. Ever. Amen. |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
|
EYE-BALL’s Herman on – “Corruption”
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 25th Jan – Anti Discrimination - - 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - - 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour - 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full - 3rd Oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! - 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! - 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. - 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - - 6th Aug: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? 21st July: – Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - “Corruption” - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 6th Feb 2013 | |
 Corruption:-
“I define it is an inappropriate understanding of ethical or moral standards. The failure to disclose and make transparent.” In the preamble to the Wood Report, Royal Commissioner Justice James Wood questioned “why is a police officer receiving a monkey ($500 bribe) different to a police officer not paying for a hamburger or being given a sponge cake to take home to the little lady by a local cake shop”. He concluded they are exactly the same, where one is very minor, and the other is a larger manifestation but, they are both equally corrupting. Given that at that time a Senior Sergeant was so relatively underpaid, the police officer was naturally inclined to see the free hamburger as an entitlement, probationary constables included. Beyond that the lack of wages for the senior sergeant meant that good officers were induced to leave the Police Force, and only those who lived by their extra entitlements were inclined to stay. He hypothesised much much further that corruption in the NSW Constabulary goes back to Lieutenant Commander Grose’s formation of the NSW Rum Corp, basically day dot. As we today grapple with corruption in Federal and State Politics, many of those issues need to be considered. The Eureka stockade had many claims against the squatocracy of that time. Back then it was paralleled to the Boston Tea Party, or the Chartists of Britain. The Victorian Legislative Council was not paid, at all, and was a privileged class made up of squatter’s interests. By 1870 parliamentarians too were to be paid a meaningful living wage, so that all classes of society could potentially serve, and by 1928 the Lodge was a modest family bungalow, where the Prime Minister could reside with wife and children. Consider John Curtin, who was required to travel by train to Canberra from Perth in his time, the 2nd Prime Minister during World War II. Fast forward to 1996 when newly installed PM John Howard wanted to live in his family residence in Wollstonecraft, so as to not disrupt his children’s schooling and university, then the AFP stating they could not offer security on that premises so his family residing at Kirribilli was a viable alternative. A minor side issue was what happened to Wollstonecraft property? He intentionally left it vacant, so that he was not accused of living rent free at Kirribilli, while earning a surreptitious income in the scenario. The fact that he then in time conducted his daughter’s engagement party and wedding in a marquee erected on Kirribilli’s lawns is a different story. One I choose to skip, including allegations that the state paid for $120,000 of fine wines on both occasions. In 1996 a part of the fall of the Keating government was double standards, particularly relating to Senator Graeme Richardson. Larry Pickering claims Keating’s piggery was a financial disaster, and if not for Rene Rivkin finding an Indonesian (foreign) buyer the former PM would not have the wealth he has today. From my perspective I was advised to get in on the Alpine Offset rort, and therefore had no problem in believing that Rivkin, Richardson and Trevor Kennedy were the principals behind the scam. In the case of Kennedy I wanted the issues to be fully aired, and publicly debated. The simple fact that all attempts to expose the truth failed only adds to the suspicions, a lack of transparency. On Rivkin, I have no doubt his rise to notoriety during the 1969 Poseidon boom was based on running and pooling. Running and Pooling were two forms of collusive trading expressly outlawed in the Securities Industries Act, of that time, and therefore I never wanted to be a part of any of it. Enough on that matter. In short any stock contained in the Rivkin report was highly toxic. Back to the Keating governments fall his victory speech of 1993 was nothing in substance. Keating’s government had failed his ALP base. So fast forward to today, I am awaiting news on the Member of the House of Representatives for Dobell’s appearance in Melbourne on fraud charges, and awaiting the next development in the public ICAC enquiry into Eddie Obeid and his crony McDonald. I am also ingesting news overnight regarding the entire Federal ALP trying to distance themselves from these alleged felons, and wonder how widespread is this corruption? Being diverted to other issues doesn’t fix the confusion if anything it makes it worse. Let me consider some of the news overnight. Tony Burke, Morris Iemma, Mark Arbib, John Robertson, Stephen Conroy amongst others took advantage of Eddie Obeid’s generosity by taking advantage of his Perisher ski accommodation. Very minor, no details offered on cleaning or minor contribution to rates electricity and so on. Conroy and Burke didn’t declare this pecuniary interest, because they weren’t required to. Well how about ethics? Specifically I too, have been offered cheap accommodation (bordering on gratuitous) over the years, and indeed my children only ever got to water ski courtesy of the generosity my sister and her husband. I always expected to contribute something. As for more unrelated parties, the cases are not so cut and dried or easy to describe. In relation to Obeid’s Perisher Chalet, we require much more specificity. We require dates, any commercial realities, and links to corruption. We will need to wait and see. I expect Obeid offered the information to show how generous he was with other people’s money. All those named should immediately take a moral position. John Robertson has supported bi-partisan support to freezing Eddie Obeid’s assets with a view to ultimate claims against him. We the electorate of NSW do not understand the government’s reluctance. Please Mr Premier, one more time, for the deaf, dumb or stupid, why or how might you be considered to interfere with the work of Commissioner Ipp? Should we wait for Commissioner Ipp to make an interim finding? I am surprised Commissioner Ipp has not found Mr Obeid to be in contempt of Court. Has Mr Obeid been asked to surrender his passport? Next issue, Last night a rather embarrassed looking Tony Windsor was interviewed concerning the backlash from his constituency for supporting this very tarnished government. Last Spring this web site questioned all independents as to why they continued to support this government, despite all the obvious shortcomings more particularly the AWU allegations against the PM herself and the role of Peter Slipper and Craig Thomson. As a rule those E mails were not decently responded to. I do not believe that The Hon. Tony Windsor has committed any specific act that could be perceived as corrupt however the Australian electorate expects independents to act conscientiously to keep “the bastards honest”. I personally see that as more important than a parliament going to the polls early. Send them to the polls early, and we feel safe and protected, fail to do so and we feel taken for granted, and vulnerable. I will not vote in the seat of New England come the election but this is where I feel the electorate is angry. I said last winter the 1st Party to embrace ethics and integrity would romp in the next election. This brings me to the entire ALP Party being tarnished with the same brush. The last time I can recall a former minister being gaoled in NSW was Rex “Buckets” Jackson. In Queensland there was Nuttall, and decades ago, Lane and Austin, and Wright (rather unrelated). They cross parties, ie both sides. Then there were many others that we fail to understand. State MLA Karyn Paluzzanno is currently contesting home detention conviction and sentencing for lying to ICAC and falsely claiming staff allowances in the amount of $29,000. If someone of less means stole 10% of that sum waving around a plastic gun with no inner firing mechanism, for armed hold up there is a mandatory sentence. That includes if they co-operate with police. At times white collar crime is deemed equivalent, due to the sneakiness involved. They have not put others in fear of their life, however white collar crime is unlikely to have such witnesses. I hold in positions of trust politicians should get extra, and in consideration they are already better off. Karyn Pallunazzo earned much more than the average in her constituency, yet that wasn’t enough. I will not condone anyone making threats against her or her family or harming her cat, we leave that to the law enforcement agencies but when in sentencing she made such claims they were not that related to reasons for mitigation. She claimed she has already suffered interminably, disgraced, removed from office. I also do not know if the intimidation claims could be substantiated. So this crying (crocodile tears) became a precedent for Craig Thomson when making oath in Federal Parliament. So let’s move on to Craig Thomson. This sideshow has been going to the very heart of this parliament and just won’t fix. He claims he was being targeted in identity theft and baseless lies and allegations. Fair Work investigations have been absolute tedium. Nonsense about the matters belonging in civil court for recovery because there were no express rules. Fraud is deception. Deceptive practices. That is what the electorate perceives. No transparency. Then there is Temby’s “in confidence” report. It wasn’t kept confidential, and then comes the raid on HSU East, the appointment of an administrator, Michael Williamson accused of destroying documents, Michael Williamson a former President of the ACTU, failure by the PM to stop the rot, Michael Williamson arrested, Craig Thomson forced to the cross benches, and so it goes………. And all of this is focused on NSW Right Wing (Sussex St), those who engineered Julia Gillard knifing Rudd and it doesn’t stop there. The PM depending on Craig Thomson’s vote to continue in government gives rise to the airing of the AWU allegations of 16 to 18 years ago. She personally profited by it? She doesn’t want the matter aired (which one, HSU or AWU?). Don’t create a rod for her own back, a precedent, the whole lot of them might turn on her. Who the NSW Right? The Caucus, the faceless men? We have come full circle to the ICAC hearings against Eddie Obeid. The tip of the iceberg. I nearly forgot Oakschott’s claim that Thomson would be held in contempt if found lying in parliament. But the Slipper scandal hasn’t yet got an airing. Peter Slipper is just a salacious soul. An expense rorter on the Coalition back bench, and in the scenario where the PM couldn’t honour her commitment to mandatory pre commitment given to the MP for Denison, a real quick fix. The balance of power was not so fragile. Buy time. Charges dismissed as being politically motivated, give me a break. Not just from the Slipper scandal but the whole lot. Windsor and Oakschott often claim this hung parliament has been the most productive on record. Over 400 pieces of individual legislation. Does that count Tony Burke’s 4 attempts at fishing legislation relating to the super trawler Southern Cross in 4 days? This will be remembered as the greatest crisis government since Khemlani, Cairns, Morosi and so on. The G word is mandatory. Gaol. To clear the way for a more decent, upright, transparent and government of integrity in the future. One cell for Eddie Obeid, one for Michael Williamson, one for Craig Thomson, and it doesn’t stop there. The bad apple that was Graeme Richardson 2 decades ago could well the one spoilt apple that has tainted the whole lot. Why did The Alpine Offset matter conclude with the apparent suicide of Rene himself. The urban legend relating to Caroline Byrne and Gordon whathe’s name never really fixed. Gordon Wood was Rivkin’s driver, it is alleged Caroline Byrne knew too much. I revert to the beginning. British Justice does not only need to be done, it needs to be seen to be done. I define corruption as an inappropriate understanding of ethical or moral standards. The failure to disclose and make transparent. On morals and ethics as we deal with this newer information on the deteriorating fiscal outlook for 2012/13 and forward estimates, we are now told Treasury has noted Federal Government share of GDP is at its’ lowest level in nearly 3 decades. Has that got anything to do with government programmes? How does such a scenario happen? I will never doubt that we have toiled throughout perceived history to strive for decency, crushing corruption where we find it, seeking equity and maintaining justice, in the wisdom of the scriptures “the meek shall inherit the earth”, however; Believing in sanity is itself insanity. |
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Anti-Discrimination …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 17th Jan 2013 – Atheism - - 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - - 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour - 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full - 3rd Oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! - 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! - 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. - 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - - 6th Aug: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? 21st July: – Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - Anti-Discrimination - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 25th Jan 2013 | |
| M
uch of my summer break has been spent on elements of social exclusion and discrimination. Christmas can be a terrifying time for many decent people and as a society it is only in recent times, 3 odd decades, has so much debate arisen as to why suicide factors increase over the summer holiday season. A very all encompassing response is depression, but what circumstances causes this epidemic? Since Sept 2011 the Commonwealth Department of the Attorney General has been considering a unified approach to the varying Federal and State legislations, tribunals and remedies available to address discrimination in its varying forms. The following is an adequate definition of discrimination as supplied to the Attorney General’s Department – Consolidation of Commonwealth Anti-Discrimination Laws: Submission by Discrimination Law Experts’ Group on December 13, 2011. See link here …
If further reading is required you might try;
From those readings my suggested test of prohibited discrimination might be; ‘any attitude, practice or action or process that excludes any claimant, be that in the political, economic, social, cultural or any other field of public life’. Lord Brown Wilkinson in the judgement in Glasgow City Council v Zafar stated:
In a broader sense this is critical to the issue in the matter that has bothered me recently. A very senior civil servant, whose career has been built within various bureaucracy in human resource recruitment and capability, who has learnt a biased Australian Public Service merit based interpretation on the job, unknown qualifications but unable to understand or apply the intents and purposes of anti-discrimination laws. From his perspective the morality of the matter is secondary to the myopic drive for cost containment. The lack of understanding of economic cost casts a dark shadow over all Public Service, including policy, and policy makers. This attitude is then antecedent to all human resource practice throughout all industry. Most sadly the Australian Public Service interpretation of merit based appointment, is heavily skewed towards incumbent public servants and their self-preservation and self-interest. It is widely entrenched by group think, and prohibits re-evaluation by more efficacious and productive thought, outsiders. The following is but a small sample of Commonwealth Guidelines, Legislation and State Government Acts that cover discrimination. [The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was 1948 and there are other forerunners like Magna Carta 1215 or 19th century philosophers including William Henry Thoreau amongst others.] United Nations
Commonwealth
Victoria
Queensland
Australian Capital Territory
Western Australia
Tasmania
The oldest Australian legislation listed is 1975 and that supports my argument that this is relatively new developments in Human Rights and equity or equality. The Federal Court has now developed a body of adequate jurists in these matters, however too often access is denied to the most vulnerable through cost eg the disabled, the Indigenous, the unemployed or long-term unemployed amongst others. So Legal Aid and other conciliation forums too must meet a more exacting standard. The United States and Canada have both adopted consolidated Acts. One Canadian section states; “For greater certainty, a discriminatory practice includes a practice based on one or more prohibited grounds of discrimination or on the effect of a combination of prohibited grounds”. This is somewhat addressed in the definition of discrimination above 2. Far too often all legal jurisdictions rely upon claims under a statutory legal provision or precedent. When the claim is dismissed under that provision is an adequate and cost-effective appeal process available? An excellent example might include discrimination on the basis of an irrelevant criminal record, not only in employment, but in accommodation and goods and services (etc), prevents former offenders from participating in the community and results in further social exclusion. Another excellent case study example I came across in the earlier listed submissions was an indigenous genetically disabled woman where her disability was an affliction that caused lack of balance in walking. She was constantly arrested as being intoxicated. Would she seek relief under Sex Discrimination Act, Racial Discrimination Act or Disability Discrimination Act, when the matter of intoxication is bought before a Local Court Magistrate? A genetically induced Disability…..charged with being drunk. I can only support the consolidation initiative. It is trite that it has required other Western Countries to lead the way! Even when the Australian Legislation is enacted problems will remain. Will Australian government abide by their own policies and procedures? Will they democratically support the independence and transparency of the judicial process? How do we keep it is cost effective? Last year the Federal Attorney General’s behaviour was questioned several times particularly relating to the matter of James Ashby v Commonwealth and Federal Member of Parliament Peter Slipper. The bi-partisan nature of the Judge was called into question when the case was dismissed ruling the claims were politically motivated. Sexual harassment is abhorrent. This is not an issue of discrimination but an example of government acting out of self-interest. The text messages caused Slipper to resign the parliamentary speakership. That whole affair is so sordid. The independence and transparency of the judiciary is paramount. For me the biggest unanswered question in the Peter Slipper hearing remains why was the judgement of the matter reserved for a couple of months. It was ultimately given only after parliament was in recess. How many less sensational but apparent abuses of judicial process are not reported and subject to the same level of public scrutiny. In the discrimination issues I have been pondering if I need to be careful of subjudice and undertakings to not discuss process. A basic Human Right is freedom of thought and freedom of expression. To achieve Human Rights at the anti-discrimination level, Human Rights are breached regarding freedom of speech. Believing in Sanity is itself Insanity. |
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Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Atheism …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 12th Nov - Hegemony - 2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - - 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour - 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full - 3rd Oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! - 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! - 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. - 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - - 6th Aug: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? 21st July: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - Atheism - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman O’Hermitage | 17th Jan 2013 | |
| The word atheist is from the Greek word atheos See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheism.
Essentially to believe in no after life, no master supernatural being(s). No heaven, no hell, no purgatory, no vestal virgins, no St Peter, no Pearly gates or Valhalla. Utopia is an ideal, Hell is here in worldly existence – i.e. life.Gnostic is crudely the opposite. From the Greek term gnosis meaning knowledge. Through Christianity Gnostic has become distorted to believe in the knowledge of the holy Catholic deities. I tend to reject the fact that it requires total acceptance of the catholic deities. Most strictly Agnostic means not knowing what to believe. Friedrich Nietzsche 1840 – 1900 – see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Nietzsche, a philosopher, studied and advanced nihilism, “when you rule out a god how does that effect scientific knowledge”. In the words of Imagine by John Lennon;
In the second verse Lennon goes on to address the greatest criticism of Nietzsche, being labelled an anti-Semitic, and becoming very questioned therefore unfashionable after Nuremberg and the collapse of Nazism, more specifically the holocaust. In Manning Clark’s book ‘A Short History of Australia’ he calls Captain Arthur Phillip an atheist. In Tom Keneally’s book ‘A Commonwealth of Thieves’, he labels Phillip as agnostic. Too often those terms are interchangeable. Only the late Artie Phillip could possibly elucidate us on what his personal philosophy was. We can only really pass assessment on Governor Arthur Phillip’s deeds in establishing and pioneering the NSW colony to know better. There is little doubt that he saw Anglican Chaplain of the 1st Fleet Richard Johnson’s part in the convict settlement as a morals coach to a gathering of recalcitrant and transients fallen into felony. There is also little doubt that Governor Phillip did all within his power to make the colony a success, and after NSW chased position and title. The current Prime Minister is often labelled an atheist. Is that self confessed, I am unsure! This web site has called her an atheist. Biologist Richard Dawkins loves to call himself an atheist and does so to besmirch those who take the bible or any other meta-physics so literally. It is an argument that I do not really care for. I accept Charles Darwin’s survival of the fittest, and evolution, and much prefer it to Genesis 1.1. Yet I can’t emphatically state much about Big Bang Theory. What was there before Big Bang? Did Big Bang start Time? What really annoys me is to hear (too often) in America, “And may God Bless America”. It is so tribal. We all are in our own way tribal, but let us go back to John Lennon’s Imagine, Imagine there’s no countries! It is oft Quoted Jesus said love one another as I have loved you! Humanity front and central! The indigenous of Australia and Torres Strait belief that they are part of the earth, Mother Nature. That I find most agreeable save for the fact the evolution of society has been dependent on various scientific progressions which has led to mishaps. Generally termed cause and effect, but in other philosophies cause and effect, could be called Karma or action and reaction. Do we aspire to a nomadic lifestyle? Most would choose creature comforts. So too will we come to pass judgement in time all others besides Governor Phillip by their deeds. The cause and effect. A week ago in group conversation, I used the phrase, “Our Prime Minister”. Within that group, one quickly quipped “she is not my Prime Minister”, and the conversation quickly switched to a small meeting of Right wing forces. Like “John Howard was my man”. I believe in changing governments. In a 2 party system it is the only way to achieve balance. I was in disbelief in 2004 when John Howard was re elected after having committed our troops to firstly Afghanistan then Iraq. In hindsight, Australian’s were euphoric with prosperity. Their feeling of well being in economic prosperity was greater than their fear of violence begets violence. The rest is history and with the absolute control of both houses Australia went on to get Workchoices. By 2007 Workchoices had sufficiently undermined that economic prosperity of the electorate, to focus on other issues like those unwinnable wars, rising casualty factor, a party at war between Howard and Costello, Howard would not move on, and so on. Howard’s Government led by God fearing individuals, put our soldiers in harm’s way, but more than that have invoked the wrath of the Muslim World, often third world. After the Sari nightclub incident where 88 Aussies holidaymakers lost their lives (amongst others), there was conjecture the bombers were motivated by revenge against Western forces (the coalition of the willing). Jihad is loosely explained within the 10 commandments. On Moses’ famous tablets Commandment VI is loosely translated “thou shall not kill” Commandment VII is “Thou shall not commit adultery”. For some the translation of “Thou shall not covet thy neighbour’s wife” might be more palatable. Commandment VIII is “Thou shall not steal”. So Mohamed is believed to have derived the caveat to the VI Commandment, you can kill to protect your wife and children, your property, or your state. [In this instance, State should possibly be interpreted as faith]. Include Commandment II about false idols and blasphemy and you tend to better understand Islamic Law. Moses further went on to set out in Deuteronomy I and II great detail of these crimes and their subsequent punishment. E.g. stoning of adulterous women and casting off adulterous men into the wilderness. Muslims hold Jesus to be the 8th of the 9 great prophets. (Moses being another) Therefore they are not labelled atheist but more like barbaric or extreme. Often terrorist. What is terror? Fear, but I fear many things before death. I postulate this is the real concept underlying all of this. Atheist or Agnostic are descriptors often used to demonise or vilify. I tend to consider my postulations enlightened. Maybe that is unchecked egotism. Socrates essentially believed that all rational argument ultimately collapses on its own flawed argument. The Buddhists have a prayer that goes;
As always, believing in sanity is itself insanity. Have a peaceful and productive 2013.
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Hegemony …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
2nd Nov – A March early Federal election - - 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full 3rd oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - Hegemony - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 12th Nov 2012 | |
| Yesterday I attended a presentation by Dr (Prof) Tom Sunic. When I accepted the invitation I truly thought the subject matter was about geo political issues surrounding Croatia joining the Euro Union from July 2013, particularly from the perspective of Greece’s economic woes and cultural identity. The cultural identity part was somewhat correct as the other attendees were unashamedly the New Right. They were selling books and distributing flyers for: http://www.newrightausnz.com/
With such a rudimentary initiation, I am hardly an expert. Much of what I heard is beyond my comprehension. Many of the group came to Australia from World War II fascist countries, who were persecuted under victorious Communist regimes. (Josip Tito). The victors get to write the history of the vanquished (hegemony). As an Australian citizen with a great great grandfather who was sent to the colonies in chains because he was arrested with 23 shillings, charged in Dublin with being a pick-pocket, he claimed he fairly won in a cock fight. He was barely an adult. Or a different Great Great Grandfather sent to the colonies, who as a depressed military officer, while resisting arrest was charged with stealing a boot, dislodged in the resulting melee, or the great great great grandson of a Cornish man arrested in Essex returning from The Battle of Waterloo, with whose forces did he fight? Could he have been a mercenary for Napoleon? In the case of the first character, 2 of his forebears had lead battalions of Wild Geese Irish – [Wikipedia - linked here] – to fight with the French against England firstly in the Jacobite Wars, and secondly under Napoleon. You can see patterns that help you to understand. That all said, Fascism and National Anarchists are both very offensive terms. They are so politically incorrect. Are these guys some sort of lunatic fringe to be scared of? Their answer is simple. Political Correctness in all of its forms is hegemony. The dictates of the ruling class, a new word to replace the Marxist concept of proletariat. When any politician claims to be offended is that not their way of trying to silence dissention? Isn’t rigorous debate and free speech enshrined in the Treaty of Human Rights. [linked here] From here on in the argument gets harder to see in such simple logic.
From my thoughts each of these examples needs to be looked at through specific conditionality but there are recurrent concepts. One last most central tenet of Dr Sunic is – there must be conscious effort to counter balance the Marxist thought that permeates through all levels of academia since the 1970’s. So trying to assimilate all this ultra right wing thought into modern society I am in a flux.
I nearly forgot. Tom Sunic claims when you look at the wealthy elite in former communist states, they were once corrupt communist party officials but have now resurrected themselves as bleeding heart human rights activists, still enjoying excess privilege. Like within China (a centrally planned free market economy) about 13% are super wealthy, something over 20% are middle class with nearly 2/3rds of the population peasant existence farmers. You will find similar throughout former USSR – the Romanovs, Estonia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Poland and so on. This brings me to corruption in Australia government. This is the most central argument. Last Saturday ‘Hillbilly 33′ wrote (10/11/12) in response to another EYE-BALL post at this site – linked here
I applaud his comment. I don’t condone sedition or anarchy but what happens when all else fails? Tom Jefferson was a major backer of the 2nd Amendment being included in the USA constitution in 1791 after he had been wanted for treason by the British. Only the victorious – “the ruling class” get to write the history! Tom Jefferson was the 3rd United States president (1801 – 1809) and one of the founding fathers of the USA. (In research you will find a much more elongated story). But then there is Martin Luther King Jnr and his peaceful resistance (protest). I guess I will always err towards Martin Luther King. That is the very reason for this Eye-Ball blog site. It supports free speech. It beseeches alternative media. It is not sponsored or lobbyist. It does not seek subscription. It could sure do with some better financial support, but not to the point of selling its integrity. It implores better information to the masses. It demands more encompassing and rigorous debate. Late last week there was an article – “Open Letter to “The Independents” – Re: Julia Gillard Peter Slipper, and Craig Thompson, three MP’s who bring continued shame to our Parliament” – linked here It is very frustrating when this plutocracy allows “a lack of honesty, integrity, real freedom and fairness” to be wholly ignored and thereby not corrected. A dereliction of duty, and a debasing of true democracy. Who are the real bleeding heart human rights activists, who are the abused, who are the abusive? It is a vicious cycle and a downward spiral. Every MP either hit the delete button or sent an automated response, to the effect:
Quite often themes which are raised on this blog site surface later in the mainstream media. In as much I am very content knowing that hard questions get the audience they deserve. But there is more. Emotions are fickle things. You don’t like to repeat yourself. It is difficult to appeal to the ethers for goodness when you have normal emotions like hunger and ambition. You can outline the plutocracy, this hegemony, you can highlight the evidence, the causes, the effect, you seek counter opinion and thought, you take strength and courage in little results. From my article of October 22, titled “Energy Debate — CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour” -over the weekend you can sniff the PR at work – “This means replacing poles and wires generally erected 50 years ago in the 1960’s”. That is spin partly based in fact but simplified and twisted on itself - “The Federal government encourages the privatisation of those assets”. Oh really. Is that because you are too busy to really exercise due care? How can you be so busy given the bloated and totally inefficient civil service or bureaucracy you control and or have created? For mine the most insidious part of all of this is the lack of balance. A serve serving government riddled with scandal and corruption is too busy fighting fires and enjoying the spoils rather than truly planning for the future, and focused on what is not working. All of their energy is missing the ideal. Being self serving they are too busy to listen to those they are elected to represent. Why did Nazism rise in the depression in Germany? What caused the Bolshevik revolution in Russia under Lenin? The same concept underlies the fall of Rome, and the French Revolution, and the Meiji Restoration in Japan. Bloated civil stipend, excessive concentration of power amongst an elite, or persecution of the masses! I often state Spain and Greece should never have come to this. For me Lenin or Stalinist Communism and Facism are nearly identical. They both are centralist with tiny variance of the mechanics. I reject both. I implore free speech. I reject anarchy. Most of our problems are of our own creation, but stay sane by trustng; Believing in sanity is itself insanity. |
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| Please – if you found this story to your liking and would like to promote it to your social media contacts – i.e. Twitter, Facebook, or other icon linked account below – please click your favoured Icon(s) to promote the story.Thankyou.
Have your say where it counts: – contact your Local Federal Representative via the links below and let them know how you feel about this, or any other topic that you feel strongly about – or you can just post a comment below and let off some steam. Links to Australian Parliamentary Website – MP’s
|
EYE-BALL’s Herman on – A March early Federal election …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
- 25th Oct – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour 22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full 3rd oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - A March early Federal election - | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 2nd Nov 2012 | |
| If we go to the polls before June of 2013, then it would only be an election for MHR’s. The senate requires elected members to assemble from July 1, 2014. With opinion polls now neck and neck the PM would jump at any chance to win another term. More than that any punter would expect the economic environment to be much more conducive by 2016, therefore getting through 2013 is the immediate problem.
Attempting to project economic cycle is always difficult. I personally believe Australia will struggle to match immediate past performance over the coming 5 years, but the international cycle can’t get much worse. I expect Australian GDP to stagnate at about 2%, unemployment to rise to about 6.5%, over inflated currency to persist, (record high terms of trade, due to quantitative easing) and inflation to remain benign. Housing stats are much more convoluted and therefore the timing is the tough part. Both the major parties want (need) a double dissolution. Both believe they will eliminate the current imbroglio of having to deal extensively with the minorities. Given the closeness of opinion polls neither party would be likely to gain control of the upper house. Say about 36 Coalition 32 Labor 7 Greens and 1 independent (Nick Xenaphon). While that mix is changed the politics hasn’t. Under a half senate election the Coalition is most unlikely to do any better. Labor too will need the support of the Greens (probably 9 of them). In the Lower House, it is far too difficult to call. Every marginal will be determined by demographic specific logics. I think Dobell will go Coalition. Fisher will revert to Coalition. But Coalition will likely lose swing seats in WA, over an issue of compromising core value of deregulation of wheat marketing. Melbourne reverting to ALP does not affect the current logics, and Denison is likely to go either way, as always depending on the heartland battle of Wilderness vs. Afforestation, most likely labor. It is often strange how many wilderness supporters are not always Tasmania voters. Tony Windsor’s seat of New England will be tough to pick up by the coalition, and they might well not even contest Kennedy. The respect shown to Katter by both parties over his initiatives to micro irrigation in Far North Queensland is noted. Off course each party would love to remove him as a thorn, but their energies are more likely productive elsewhere. Should Oakeshott lose Lyne and it reverts to Nationals, the balance is in the flux but there are many other issues to balance. Lyne has obtained special favour from the government as part of supporting a minority government. I expect there will be swings to Liberal in all the Eastern States, but right now there are far too many uncertainties. NSW is one kettle of fish with the State Government lead by Barry O’Farrell compared to Queensland led by Campbell Newman. ALP won government generally in 2007 but it was going to be close until the Qld effect of Qld based PM and Treasurer delivered a very handsome majority. The Green’s agreeing to Government proposals on problem gambling is indicative of that party realising they don’t want a double dissolution. Similarly The Liberal recalcitrance over wheat marketing is very short sighted. It wasn’t that long ago the government compromised values on policy towards the super trawler and now that is long forgotten. Their 4 policies in 4 days on the super trawler issue was utter incompetence, but elections are rarely determined by one single issue. Even Peter Slipper attacking Tony Abbott over wheat marketing can be construed in several ways. Is it payback and/or attempting to de-stabilise, his validation of his position (needing to be heard) maybe even sucking to marginal voters in Fisher)? By the New Year many little things will be forgotten, but several won’t. Those that won’t be quickly forgotten are James Ashby in relation to Peter Slipper, Michael Williamson in relation to Craig Thomson (or Kathy Jackson) and several more. Then there will be new developments. On policy Tony Abbott has definitely underplayed his hand. Removing Carbon Tax and balancing the budget is only appealing to heartland. The retirees and business in all of its forms. He needs some major initiatives on manufacturing and jobs and rising middle class to inspire. Slashing budgets creates fear amongst marginal voters. How could shedding 20,000 Canberra based bureaucracy jobs win votes? The Government does offer more in this regard, but many of their policies are much pitched at their heartland, broadband, education, non government schools. National disability and Medicare dental are hard to fathom. Recently struggling to get through the White Paper “Australia in the Asian Century” I reverted to reading the Cooper Review on Superannuation. It is slightly more riveting, slightly. Trying to follow all of the reports that make up current affairs is difficult, and itself confusing. It is parliament abrogating their responsibility and attempting to hide behind a greater authority. Gonski is pipe dream and unaffordable often missing the real point of inefficiencies and entrench work practices and biases, Houston is whitewash, whatever happened to Henry now MRRT is such a watered down and nothing piece of essentially failed legislation. Failed by collapse in iron ore prices? In part but still for all of Australia’s mineral extraction it amounts to exporting jobs through over inflated currency amongst other things. All that has been said on the White Paper Australia in the Asian Century I absolutely concur. It is a collection of statements of common sense it is intended to focus Australians and Business leaders of the growing economic Importance of East Asia and the sub continent. It does nothing whatsoever to flesh out plans to increase Australia’s share of economic goods and services other than addressing cultural issues like increased teaching of languages and Asian Studies within the education system. Free trade agreements are critical. There is nothing wrong with the paper itself but I do believe the significance is just too political. The 22 simultaneous press releases by Ministers of government is really over kill.
The DPMC – [Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet] – is finally starting to show some return for its increased budgetary allocation of $400mio last May, but what an aggrandising and wasteful exercise. Before DPMC where were these functions performed? It compromises the very concept of economic efficiency. Months ago when the opinion polls were heavily against the government, I advocated taking those polls with a grain of salt. The electorate expressing their disapproval with the government is one thing, but therefore installing the coalition alternative is something different again. The saddest part is there are only 2 foreseeable choices. I still warn I do not take Newspoll as any authority whatsoever. Private party polling is much more accurate. A couple of years ago Newspoll called me. They asked questions which were fast, often unconnected, went all around many issues, very often nothing to do with politics. Hot breakfasts, Eggs or branded cereals, new cars, second hand car advertising. After about 15 minutes I said enough and hung up. It was so fast your recall of the questions or my response is extremely limited. You can’t even remember a tiny fraction of what you were asked to answer. Then you wonder about the process. Where the questions designed with a bias? Last Monday a private market research company called while I was watching Australian Story. They claimed to be authorised by government. I simply said thank you and hung up. That all said, with the question raised this week about Abbott’s leadership I am now searching through history for answers to what might occur over the period up to the next election. After August 2010 the coalition declared Tony Abbott leader for as long as he wanted, he had saved the party from political insignificance. The coalition had won more seats than the ALP. It was ever so close. However, the party is steeped in pragmatism and doesn’t like losers. Last April he let slip a massive popularity margin by acting like a government in waiting. He has overplayed Carbon Tax to the exclusion of all others. His front bench is not scoring points on the government. This week only Julia Bishop attacking the Prime Minister’s credibility is working. Joe Hockey is not making inroads but the corruption issue is tenuous. I can perceive the Coalition’s policies are very weak. The government labelling them to be reckless or wreckers or negative sticks because the Coalition don’t display any vision. During the Hawke and Keating years the Lib’s were mainly divided by Howard and Peacock. They turned to alternatives like Hewson and Downer. In the end Peacock took an overseas posting and Howard did a Lazarus. He went on to become Australia’s 2nd longest serving PM and so on. During the Howard years ALP went through similar with Beazley and Crean. Throw in Latham and Rudd and the parallels are complete. Kevin Rudd was the messiah for a while. The unchecked ambitions of many ALP MP’s gave the Coalition minus Costello and Downer and other high profile candidates a chance, Abbott the right wing buffoon got a chance. ALP went ever so close to not getting a second term. Abbott had turned his image around. Since John Hewson’s famous fightback package Oppositions have not set out extensive policy manifestos. Fightback was used to besmirch Hewson. Alexander Downer did produce “the Things that Matter”. (A basic collection of homilies) For Howard in 1996, he simply said in he would not introduce a goods and services tax in the first term. He did not spend that much time as opposition leader. He was made leader on January 30 1995 and became prime Minister on March 11, 1996. In those 14 months he was careful not to give Keating a target by producing a large policy manifesto. Similar then occurred with Rudd. He became opposition Leader on December 4 1995 to become prime Minister on November 24 2007. He did not produce a large policy platform but did differentiate himself. Overturn Workchoices, Kyoto, Sorry and position on Iraq and Afghanistan. Hence the perception that Howard or Rudd didn’t win government but Keating and Howard lost government. Howard and Workchoices is a story in itself. Noting that Tony Abbott has now dyed hair you might think that he mimicking the prime minister rather than envisioning something for Australia’s future. Which goose advised him to dye his hair? Soften the macho man image? Come into the 21st century, with all of its me generation rather than wisdom of the ages. The Liberal party are conservatives, which includes the wisdom of the ages. If he wants to be a modern man then why does he keep referring to the previous government and all of their last century policies? On June 18, 2012 the PM made her famous speech in Europe “take a leaf out of Australia’s book!” Given how she was besmirched at the time “Who were her advisers?” “How could she be so arrogant?” it tends to be forgotten. Joe Hockey made his speech “The Age of Entitlement” on April 17, 2012. But by vacillating on the baby bonus and opposing a means test on Medicare rebate the Liberal party have trashed their party platform. Joe Hockey is diminished as a potential leader by not influencing on these issues in the party room and upholding to his speech. Maybe Gillard learned from her scenario the need for fiscal responsibility. I feel that the Liberal party might likely promote Kevin Andrews to Leader. Faced with another 3 years in opposition the time is right. Abbott will be given an extremely high profile portfolio. This could then be sufficient change for Turnbull to take treasury. What would be even better is a QLD or WA leader, but that does not seem too likely. NSW and Vic voting blocs will be what they always are (or were). That all said, The PM was lost at sea only a month ago. Why hasn’t this translated to something more tangible? With HSU and Peter Slipper removed from the Speaker’s chair, and the ongoing stench best termed AWU, what has changed? This week the Kangaroo Court of Australia has broken a new story regarding Tony Sheldon – Union Official embroiled in another ‘slush-fund’ scandal. The fact that Fair Work Australia is some form of oversight for Trade Unions is a very deep seated problem. This is a micro economic reform and requires the highest scrutiny possible. Recent chatter that HSU might fail in its Federal Court claims against Craig Thomson due to statute of limitations is another high farce. Recent claims that Fairwork has spent $1.3mio on external consultants investigating Craig Thomson shows the insidiousness of corruption. Further claims that $2mio has been expended pursuing Craig Thomson are worse. He is alleged to have spent somewhere between $100,000 to $270,000 of union finds, yet it costs the economy (generally) $2mio to find the truth. What a disgraceful waste of economic resources. That example shows how any claims to improve productivity are truly hollow. Nothing but fairy floss. At the highest level (Federal Parliament) abuse of position and inefficiency flourish. Thereafter further distraction from the real task at hand follows. Julie Bishop runs the issue of AWU in question time consistently, but why hasn’t the opposition moved to have both Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper removed from parliament? Wednesday NSW police have laid a total of 48 charges against Michael Williamson (previously 20, now 48). They warn 2 others will be likely charged. There are allegations against Williamson’s wife and children relating to perverting the course of justice. Charges are not convictions. The Justice Steven Rares in the James Ashby matter has reserved his decision. Nicola Roxon’s alleged interference won’t go away. No one understands why the decision is reserved for 4 weeks and continuing. ICAC’s hearing into Labor’s Obeid, Roozenthal and McDonald has only just begun. Of course there is the issue of subjudice, but simply move a vote of no confidence in a government only held together with those votes and let the motion be defeated on numbers in the House of Representatives. It will be the news cycle for months to come. It will also scrutinise the element of self serving government. Yesterday outgoing Chairman of the Australian Productivity Commission Mr Gary Banks has made a speech on why manufacturing reform has gone off the boil. He surmised it is now in the too hard basket. Recently my Editor opined that Tony Abbott wants to lose the next election. No egotist accepts defeat lightly. If Abbott isn’t the man for the job party strategists will find someone else. There are aspiring politics and those in marginal seats who believe they are up to fixing the grander problems. On Carbon Tax the real issue is much wider. The real economic argument should be; pricing of energy to households and as an industrial input. That debate has gained momentum in the last two weeks. Given we are now going into summer, that issue could well go off the boil until the winter months. Too much appears to be populist politics. Something simply is not right. Believing in Sanity is itself insanity. |
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – Energy Debate – CPI Shocks the analysts – Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
22nd Oct – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full 3rd oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - Energy Debate - - CPI Shocks the analysts – -Rod Sims finally arrives like a Knight in Shining armour- | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 22nd Oct 2012 | |
| Yesterday’s CPI number shows just how useless bank economists really are. There are several quite different components to CPI as a debate, and therefore multi -variate components. Multi-variate bordering on confusing, mindless and overwhelming. Yet CPI is used extensively in determining wage rises, or basing real pay increases, measuring our real increase in standards of living.
CPI is not specifically expected to replicate the average increase in household spending due to price increases. It is adjusted for several non domestic elements and the RBA only considers underlying inflation when deciding interest rate policy. CPI is too often beyond the average understanding, when real estate inflation is hardly included. Asset Inflation. Have median house prices over the last ten years any correlation whatsoever to CPI? The answer is yes but insignificant. The basket of goods used by ABS is known. It can be replicated should anyone try. How many bank economists noticed that in late winter fruit and vegetable prices were sky high. Tomatoes were $10 a kilo. Capsicum were just as bad $12 a kilo. brussel sprouts were simply not in the market. Frozen or tinned substitutes for beans spinach, peas, broccoli or cauliflower were real. As those bank economists live in an ivory world dining out while hearing others speak at the bigger conference centres did they stop to ask the chef about what he had just fed them? “Hey pal those minted baby peas were mushy, were they fresh?” So hearing Rod Sims of ACCC on PM last evening was very refreshing. The Energy Users Association of Australia have not yet published Mr Sims speech, so I link here some press covering it. Your household electricity bill is 35% driven by energy price hikes, 50% driven by delivery cost price hikes, and roughly 15% profit margin to the retailer. Very importantly the biggest component of recent gas and electricity price hikes (over the last 5 years) is increased delivery costs. Upgrading of transmission facilities. More than that those energy retailers build their case for price rises to the Pricing Regulatory Authorities on projected capital spend, not actual upgrading of transmission. Then the Pricing Regulatory Authorities fall for it. Weighted Average Cost of Capital is difficult, and what is a fair return on debt or equity? Each state is different like NSW has the least privatisation of the electricity industry and Victoria has the most. In NSW the government has increased their dividend from those State owned enterprises. Victoria is different. So Rod Sims wants this item included on the next agenda for COAG. Good luck, you need to compete against Gonski education funding. Politically the grandness of Gonski is much more politically sensitive, our kids deserve it, isn’t that what you want for your kids, our next generation, yeah but who is going to pay? In my writing on energy last July see this link I wrote how:
The sad part is how Australia can see it is a high cost producer comparatively on the world stage, yet cannot find the time or inclination to start addressing so much of the micro issues. Electricity cost affects every one of us. Farmers, miners, manufacturers, households and commerce. Gas similarly, but gas is also a feedstock to electricity generation. Therefore our bounty of gas does not lead to cheaper consumption price but more convoluted logics re parity pricing fair rate of return and ultimately higher household and manufactured cost. Add renewal targets and inefficient brown coal electricity generation and we are starting to get the bigger picture. But those arguments are used to obfuscate. Who outside the gas and fruit and vegetable industries understands the part played by ethane and propane in the growing process? Your tomato grower at Leppington needs to keep his seedling greenhouse at constant temperature during the late winter months. Prices are optimal pre Christmas and New Year. Ethane is used to artificially ripen. Most tomatoes are gassed, so are bananas, and without gas paw-paw would still be speckled the way they were 50 years ago. All paw-paw are packed green. I cannot say anything good fort iPART. They are sycophants used by Macquarie St for political purposes. They are independent but only to the extent of being another voice purported in the political process. Try getting a job with iPART, you will be directly told you don’t have direct experience working in Pricing Regulation. Isn’t that an argument of inbreeding? We really only want those who think our way. Until hearing Rod Sims yesterday I would have said similar for ACCC. Constantly trying to prosecute collusive pricing, and predatory behaviours, but falling short constantly. I could go on to ASIC, or APRA, or DPMC or a whole host of other government departments, but that is another story. Each different but ultimately unable to see the wood for the trees. Controlled by career bureaucrats, never subject to competition, one who is steeped in regulation and authority. Again an ivory towered world. My predicted match between the Federal ALP’s ACCC and the Liberal state governments pricing authorities has only just begun. ACCC has clearly won the first round. Will iPart and its colleagues respond? I feel it is highly likely they will act as if nothing is going on. All of our governments simply want to fight over the diminishing spoils. Growing the GDP is left to private enterprise. At the next sober lunch at the Sydney Club, or the Businessman’s Club in Ainslie over Armagnac and brandied cigars, they will strike another deal of self interest to bolster their own interests and egos, thereby selling the Australian economy short. That is why our leadership is nonsense. They are constantly missing the point. In the light of yesterdays CPI number we will hear another volley of questions in parliament about Carbon tax. Yes that is one of the feedlots, but not the only one. Was the rise in fresh fruit and vegetables only seasonal? Partly. Is that seasonally adjusted? Yes Partly. Is that an argument worth having, what, “why do the banks economists live in ivory castles?” No “Will those prices revert in the December quarter or March quarter?” “What else will offset then?” The politicians too will rely upon unsupported authority to support their arguments. “I was not born on the land etc”. “The government is showing their inexperience in child rearing”. Enough, Enough bovine excreta. No more lamb roasts or Carbon Tax or the sky hasn’t fallen in. For people not from the land (those politicians) they understand bovine excreta implicitly. Believing in Sanity is itself insanity. Who was that economist who defined markets as a series of actions and reactions. I much prefer “Markets are a series of actions and therefore over reactions.”
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – 2012 Overture – Halloween – Glass half full …
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
3rd oct – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! 2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - 2012 Overture – Halloween – - Glass half full | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 22nd Oct 2012 | |
| The American Halloween is a festival that stems from the religious saints day of All Souls. November 1 is All Souls Days, therefore on its eve children practice what we understand to be “trick or treat”.
Australia does not support the concept as much as the retailers try to promote it. Retail sales could really be helped by another selling season. As we approach this November I really see a glass half full. In Europe Spain’s continued position of refusing a bail out is really doing wonders for market psychology. My position on riots in Athens and Madrid remains circumspect, It should never have come to this. Very importantly the financial markets appear to be connected to the challenges that are in front of us, which definitely wasn’t the case as we approached Thanksgiving and Christmas one year ago. I believe we are starting to economically find a base. The world hotspots will remain a source of deep concern but fear is not a healthy emotion, too often courage is the only answer. Andrew Liveris of Dow Chemical – see Wikipedia bio here – speaking at the National Press Club recently gave us a truly sanguine speech and for any who may have missed it I highly recommend they might try and catch it on iView. While on that Richard Fidler last Tuesday (October 16th) had Aubrey Brooks a retired Newcastle steel worker on Coversations and I recommend any who may have missed it they try and catch it on podcast. Andrew Liveris stated so eloquently while Australia has enjoyed it’s mining boom courtesy of China’s industrialisation they have willingly and wantonly exported those jobs to Asia. He started from the perspective that the challenges are controllable, therefore we can fix it. Dwelling on his thoughts has me absolutely mesmerised why Australia continues to subsidise petrol motors and the production of petrol cars. Shell is in the process of closing it’s Clyde refinery (30/9/2012), and then Caltex will close it’s Kurnell refinery. Shell intends to service the Sydney and greater NSW market by domestic oversupply of refined petrol, whereas Caltex intends for its controlling shareholder Chevron to source refined petrol on the spot Asia markets. Meanwhile LNG is becoming one of our major exports. Where is the trick, because there is no treat. Buy Aubrey Brooks a beer and if you can afford it make a small contribution to his men of steel foundation and he might give you the insight. This great nation was built on Waratah steel. Waratah steel gave us railways and railway carriages, and skyscrapers, and highways. The steel works were closed in 1997, nearly 2 decades after we floated our currency. What was once Comsteel, then BHP, then Onesteel, is now Arrium and soon too to be foreign owned and controlled. (Still producing steel in Whyalla and big in scrap metal recycling). Should I spell it out loud and clear. We are subsidising Ford and General Motors to maintain a motor vehicle production capacity. We live by free trade. Free trade is a mantra. Anyone with a different opinion is a goose, caught in a time warp, unable to live in the 21st century. Foreign investment is the only answer. Different multi nationals like Exxon, and Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum will always work in our national interest. That is how free markets operate. Try scanning the 17 logos on http://www.chevron.com/about/history/ – there is not a mention of H C Sleigh or Golden Fleece or any of the Australian history about the Kurnell refinery and Banksmeadow distribution centre. Now Caltex which is half Australian and half Chevron wants us to be beholden to another layer of value added by importing refined petrol from Singapore or other. (Sourced on the spot market). Qantas passengers have become used to paying aviation fuel surcharges. These thoughts are easily transferred to Cubbie Cotton please see – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-18/higher-aussie-bids-for-cubbie-knocked-back/4268400 Those naughty naughty journalists from the ABC how dare they suggest the Cubbie Cotton sale is not optimum. It is called free trade you dopes. (You long haired, dope smoking pinko’s.) That is our mantra. Trick or Treat. I really have trouble discussing the leprechaun who runs Qantas. It goes along the lines, you don’t want to own productive assets! A well structured portfolio of financial claims will always lead to optimal economic performance. Export the jobs now, and reap the rewards later. Trick or Treat. Gees Halloween is fun! What a great American invention! While dumping on Ford and Holden and Chevron and Qantas how can I say the glass is half full? Let’s go back to the cheerful slap on the bottom delivered by Andrew Liveris. There should also be a retainer for Aubrey Brooks at all future ALP conferences. Labor to his bootstraps and you will really enjoy his explanation of section 6 strikes (labour disruptions on fiercely hot days). Have nominations for Australian of the year closed? In a recent post I raised the concept of export licenses. We really don’t care who owns Cubbie Farms. We don’t care who is Chief Executive of Qantas or Dow Chemicals. But we do retain sovereignty over the Australian economy. The Western World is somewhat seamless if you forget about the hotspots and ever present threats of disruption. That is foreign affairs, and most of the things that economics can’t answer (uncontrollables). This is my Christmas gift to Canberra. Get your noses out of the trough, so you can find some time to really see what is going on. You were elected to serve. You were elected to lead! 2012 is about to enter the silly season. It is almost over. 2013 is looking quite rosy comparatively. On Melbourne Cup day America goes to the polls. It is far too close to call. I still believe Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will be preparing to take the oval office thereafter but I am not sure enough to have large bets on it. I will do the Aussie thing and confine my gambling to the gee gees. Today we finish the presidential debates. Those debates are not everything. Romney has enjoyed an opinion poll surge throughout. It started well before the debates. That is the simple truth of an incumbent compared to an alternative. We have several years experience with Obama, only those from Massachusetts know much about Romney and where does Paul Ryan come from? Trying to explain Romney’s surge many journalists are embarrassed. They have silly reasons to explain like Romney has managed his run better. He only needed to show up at the debates without 2 heads and he would have enjoyed this ratings surge. Obama’s problems always were the economy. Too many Americans out of work. A stagnant economy. Imperceptible growth. Reduced domestic spending. Woeful debt levels. His story about wars on credit cards, but what has been done since? America out of Iraq and out of Afghanistan by 2014 but not much has changed otherwise. Wall St is quietly confident. Obama is running a negative campaign. “it is not a 5 point plan’ but a 1 point plan – a different set of rules for the well to do folk to live by”. Romney is very sober, and that is not to do with him being Mormon. He is inspiring. He looks to bi-partisan support. His 25% top tax rate compared to 40% is very radical, but hey this is America, the United States of America. Warren Buffett gave rise to the tax on the rich being too low “he pays less tax than his secretary” but we haven’t heard much about him since. I believe he is sharpening his pencil. He has famously said “that even Berkshire Hathaway shares are not always a good buy”. I will be watching for updates on his cutting of tax breaks (deductions) capped at $60,000 but it too is very complex and hard for your average folk to comprehend. (In America they are all folk, whereas in Australia they are all punters). Dodd Frank was Obama’s real shot at bi partisan politics. Romney says while he supports it he does not support all of it, and will change it. How bi partisan is that? I can’t touch on Syria, but Benghazi is an albatross. How could the support offered to Libyan rebels be repaid in such an attack? America has lost it’s mojo. Sure Iraq and Afghanistan belong to G W Bush, but he has been gone 4 years now. Francois Hollande has delivered on his promise to put a super tax on the rich. Europe is so quiet. Francois Hollande was warned this will lead to a flight of capital to tax havens. France has 9 or 11 tiny principalities on its borders, like Monte Carlo or Andorra, but now the European Union is just greater opportunity. Without EU support it is simply politics. It is empty headlines. Trick or Treat. Did the French really invent tax havens over 200 years ago? What was the part of the Suisse? Sometimes this works. The quiet in Europe is also stability. The market volatility is much lower. Confidence is built on this. Bad news too goes in cycles, it feeds upon itself until it simply wears out. The American Non Farm Payrolls have now seen 2 lower unemployment stats courtesy of only lower participation factor. But it is working. The ASX breaking (or threatening to break to the topside) of its recent trading range has me watching closely. As predicted Chinese GDP growth has stabilised at 7%. China is absolutely forced to stimulate domestic demand. China’s export markets are simply not buying, not in a position to buy. But you can only stave off replacement and renewal for so long. Christmas retail sales will be healthy. Not exuberant, but up off lower levels. Maybe slightly better than inflation(Like 4%). Department store sales are simply so sick. But I still fear for spot iron ore prices and to a lesser extent coal prices. Reverting to Andrew Liveris, 20 years ago Boral had a substantial competitive advantage over its rivals by replacing blue metal in concrete with slag iron. Rumour was they had locked up all of the Port Kembla supply. But concrete price per ton has fallen dramatically in that 20 years in real terms. That is a study in itself – technology, recycled aggregate, new supplies, outsourced delivery etc. With the Newcastle steel mills now closed, and the Port Kembla decline, there is no obvious supply of slag iron. If Bluescope had it’s own supply of iron ore, would things have been different. There is still coal to burn in the Sydney basin. (really bad pun). But we are pondering protection again – don’t go there. Australia’s politics has just not got any better. America has real hope, but Australia’s politics is mired in absolute void. Last June I was saying do not believe the opinion polls. They predict a Liberal landslide and it is hollow. What will happen when people realise that means Tony Abbott? I am very happy with my overall prophecy. Tony Abbott was not a real alternative, despite all of the problems besetting the Government. The first party to make ethics their platform will win the next election. The turn of events regarding first Peter Slipper then Michael Williamson, HSU and Craig Thomson and the ongoing stench of AWU all combine to be fatal to the Prime Minister. That includes her Deputy Wayne Swan, and several other support mechanisms. (How good was Bob Brown’s retirement timing)? With Mitt Romney in the White House the States will go about their business. Until inauguration in January there will be a void. Romney will declare he is on the job already. No one will listen (maybe Wall St), politics over until mid terms of 2014. Michelle Obama’s memoirs will get better audience. (What is Romney’s wife name – we will all know before inauguration) By the northern summer of 2013 economic stats will show positive growth. In Australia the ALP power brokers will be seeking a salve. They know that a midnight coupe will simply make things worse. They need a new leadership group. I recently heard Kevin Rudd say we all make mistakes. Many feel Krudd is yesterday’s hero. They should try looking up Aubrey Brooks in the Newcastle White Pages. Or maybe getting a headhunter to see if Andrew Liveris is ready to come home to Australia yet. The opposition party have similar considerations. Is it go with Turnbull or Abbott? The front bench is really going well. There is always a fine tweak to be made. I would suggest that fine tweak would be to forget John Howard. He is the first Australian Prime Minister defeated in his own electorate for good reason. The old axiom is that governments lose elections rather oppositions win them is always true. This government has simply got to go! I will spend the summer months thinking of a new name for the 2012 Overture column. It has been great fun. There will be other economic posts after US election. Believing in Sanity is itself Insanity.
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – 2012 Overture: Twiggy – a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market!
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Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
2nd Oct – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! 18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: - 2012 Overture: Twiggy - - a metaphor for wafer thin margins … RBA further stimulates economy surprising the stock market! | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 3rd Oct 2012 | |
| The October 2012 RBA official interest rate cut yesterday comes amongst great conjecture.
Some outcomes might include:
Now the market predicts further policy easing in November. There is one more argument not so openly discussed – that being election cycle. By Federal budget time 2013 Australia will be well into campaign 2013 (expected in the late winter or early spring of 2013). The RBA believes it needs to be politically neutral, therefore stable interest rate policy, hence the timing of expectation in interest rates implicit in the futures market. By election day 2013 the post mortems on Australia’s mining boom of the noughties will be in full swing. New research papers and thesis will be complied on what happened, why, could we have done better, what lessons have been learnt. That too will be the environment when the Federal government will be tested as economic managers. Already many sceptics are questioning this year’s budgetary outcomes (the economic assumptions employed). Predicting the outcome of the next Australian federal election is not clear. An incumbent government that no one listens to or trusts, and an opposition that equally struggles to gain traction (too often reverting to – go back to the Howard policy). Why do we need to wait another decade or so for the next generation spruiking their acumen and prowess promising solutions based in latest research/technological change? What we really perceive is distortion of the realities while now facing the bust of Australia’s 21st century mining boom. Can we find a messiah? (An adequate leader will do!) As things stand our export of LNG is still looking OK, and alumina and copper and precious metals will continue to remain relatively strong. The real bust centred on the decrease in demand and therefore price for Australia’s iron ore and coal. Currency being driven down by commodity prices but up by economic credibility and high relative interest rates, and this Quantitative Easing (QE – US and Euro devaluing or managing their currency). Australia’s gas industry, indeed the world’s gas industry will continue to excite for the next 2 decades, driven by excessive demand for dwindling oil reserves. Gold in the era of quantitative easing is driven by being the world’s reserve currency. So are several other base metals. Hard commodities are a better store of wealth than currency or other currency linked paper assets in times of economic uncertainty. However in the downturn the re evaluation of all assets occurs, including processes, valuations and which markets will recover first. Maybe even QE will be correctly named currency devaluation (or intervention) in the floating exchange rate era. As Australia’s LNG industry goes from development to export stage; construction jobs will be terminated. Therefore we need new construction start ups to absorb those construction jobs or there will be an oversupply of those jobs to be absorbed into other sectors. There are other similar issues regarding jobs in other sectors. Does it seem trite that one of the first projects of Australia’s massive pipeline of resource developments to be shelved was expansion of BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam at Roxby Downs in SA? The Olympic Dam mine produces silver, copper, uranium and gold, 4 of the less turbulent base metal prices and therefore insulated markets.
No one for one second has anyone hinted that things are so dire at Olympic Downs that the project will be moth balled or closed. If anything the exact opposite. Olympic Dam is very politically sensitive. Today median house prices in Adelaide according to RP data are the strongest of all capital cities. There are far too many considerations as always. Generally they are situation specific, like BHP’s low dividend and capital retention over recent times had lead to suggestions of a large return of capital to shareholders in the light of reduced capital expansion plans. I don’t believe so. As part of Billiton’s reverse takeover, BHP will use this downturn in economic cycle to appropriate this investment war chest to further dilute Australian equity in what was once termed “The Big Australian”. In this coming shake out there will be reduced return on capital (EBITDA), then there will be selective stock buy backs, then there will be selective buying of the best of the failed or cheap competitors. This selective buying includes an array of investment options, including in Africa, Central Asia or South America. Australia (resource based economies) now face this while the States have their downturn continuing from 2008 and the Mediterranean States of Europe keep lurching to greater crisis. The USA has been band-aiding their problems all year believing that election cycle will bring fresh policy initiative. Japan has not really recovered from 1991. Now Australia and other resource based economies will join them. Reduced or stagnating growth. China will shift to domestic demand, like health and education, maybe even environment. That is maturing of industry and will continue to lift China’s productivity, albeit slightly more modestly. A more developed economy, by western standards. At yesterday’s inaugural John Downer lecture at Adelaide University former PM John Howard said about China, maybe soon the world’s biggest economy, but never the world’s richest economy – (while they still employ such authoritarian (centralist) government). This is all Darwinian theory under the guise of Capitalism “Survival of the Fittest”. The rise and fall of civilisations continues to evolve. October 2nd’s High Court appeal over a full Federal Court decision between ASIC and Andrew Forrest over whether Forrest mislead the market will not alter much the course of Fortescue. Andrew Forrest said the legal issues have been distracting. That will always be the truth regarding litigation. Twiggy now has more time to focus on production and sales. Much more importantly for Fortescue is the recent news that their break even level on iron ore production costs is at $110 per tonne of ore. They were forced to refinance short term facilities into longer term financing lead managed by J P Morgan and Credit Suisse. In this process J P Morgan and Credit Suisse have bought themselves a seat at the ultimate carve up or restructuring of Fortescue. Is Fortescue attractive to BHP. I believe for BHP there will be richer pickings. The presence of Credit Suisse might suggest interest more akin to Xtrata, but J P Morgan has much deeper considerations. Of course State owned Chinese corporations would like to secure longer term sources of raw material on favourable terms. One stock market analyst expressed in exasperation how does lengthening debt maturity profile create value? He was highlighting that the rally in Fortescue’s share price was basically a dead cat rally. Can they substantially reduce production cost to sustain debt maintenance in this era of lower spot prices? In the demise of Fortescue will the question of how they allowed their production cost to become so excessive compared to longer term trend iron ore spot prices. Only industry insiders still talk of the folly of Meekathara Minerals and how production shortfalls saw them default on gold forward financings. Who is old enough to remember Poseidon or Tasminex? Who has ever heard of Aurora or Argyle Silver Mines of Broken Hill in the 19th century? When the tales of the 80’s names are told they are simply rogues or similarly dismissive names. John Spalvins, Alan Bond, Robert Holmes a Court, Chris Skase, Russell Goward et al. What is now a pattern in all economic cycle’s boom and bust is the tacit put that equity holders have over debt holders. Equity holders take excessively out of the economy during boom time, and leave the bond holders to pick up the pieces in the bust. In this process the strong getting stronger, and the weak getting crushed falsely believing they will become the victor. Maybe it is greed, but it has a kaleidoscope of permutations. A game of pass the parcel or musical chairs where you don’t want to get caught out, but invariably do simply by being in the game. The banks and shylockers tend to get their pound of flesh. In GFC when investment banks were failing there was a tacit put upon government. Last weekend the latest opinion polls in the USA are predicting Obama will hold the State of Ohio in the presidential race, therefore win a second term in the oval office. That makes my presidential call 5 weeks ago premature. Much more important than tonight’s presidential debate in Friday night’s non-farm payroll stat and the other one due 4 days prior to election day. Positive PMI will also help. Voter turnout is the crux. It will also be the only news post election. See U-Tube video below: there are others on: Linked on-line here. From my first 2012 post in September 2011 there is much more clarity in international thinking. Today the best I can come up with is; Would you like to be the Australian government seeking re election mid next year in the likely economic environment? Believing in Sanity is indeed Insanity.
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index – and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings…
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:
18th Sept – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. 28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) - 17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: The All Ordinaries is a totally misleading index and Australia’s lack of domestic Savings! | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 2nd Oct 2012 | |
| Please note well:-
THE FOLLOWING DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE. IT IS AN HISTORICAL LOOK AT STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE intended for economic debate. Readers should seek independent advice, the author does not work in the securities markets. Doug McLeod wrote in his working platform for the Australian Community Party on Superannuation -
Hypothesise momentarily that the All Ordinary index has grown since 1992 (20 years) by somewhere approximating 4.85% compounding annually. The mathematic that underlies the index is extremely complex. It excludes dividends. It is difficult to assess total return on stocks. That 4.85% represents an average capital growth. In 1992 Australia introduced the Superannuation Guaranty Levy. What is the income accumulation factor on those savings? If you search the major fund managers like BT or MLC, the product offerings are so wide and diverse it is very difficult to comprehend. Moreover as the fund managers use such information as advertising it a minefield in itself. SunSuper makes available 5 years of daily unit prices. All my calculations are based on financial years ie 1st July to June 30th. Their five years do not match my analysis. Below is a table of randomly selected Australia’s leading stocks 10 year all in performance. From July 2002 to June 2012. Note well that it stops on June 30 this year and does not include such factors as Twiggy Forrests (Fortescue’s) recent refinancing problems. There are several recent gyrations ignored. Core prices were sourced from Yahoo Finance. At times certain stocks did not pass the smell test. Example News Corp had a major restructure in late 2004 where an excessive dividend was paid in Jan 2005. The dilution of the stock split and dividend lead to there being an apparent negative stock return and total return. Substantial further analysis is required to derive meaningful data. Capital Growth is;
Growth adjusted for dividends is;
Interestingly my randomly selected portfolio had an average capital growth of 3.17% where the all ordinaries index grew at 3.24%. If I were to exclude Fortescue because in 2002 it was a penny dreadful, whereas by 2012 it was a producer and had paid dividends my portfolio would underperform the All Ordinaries (approx 0.5% portfolio growth). Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’S) do have tax benefits attached, but they are different to imputation credits. In the case of GPT, Westfield I have ignored them. By excluding GPT, Fortescue, Westfield, Consolidated Media and Newscorp I have an average 5% return for dividends on historical prices and that attracts a further 2% imputation credit. In the case of Cons Media they are a high div stock and that in part explains why the base is corrupted in this study. The statistical bias of this exercise worries me. The 10 year period takes in 5 massive bull run years prior to the GFC, and the 3 years of churning post GFC. Dividend yield will always be a major consideration in construction of a portfolio. In the light of all this I needed to attempt to find an accumulation index to attempt to marry like with like. Failing that I revert to my basic assumption that Total return on Stock investments over the long run is Capital Growth plus approx 4% dividend yield plus imputation benefits. While this experiment is really quite a dismal failure, the process is thought provoking. Before coming to any conclusions dealing with the fund manager performance above are two funds that I was able to marry to my study period. Those numbers are sourced from their websites. I would suggest any reader take some time to look at their own Fund manager performance in the light of this analysis. Once more it is difficult to make any meaningful supposition. State Super underperformed over the 10 year horizon compared to BT but have outperformed since GFC. Other than the period July 2007 to June 2009 BT earned their fees. Doug’s proposition that self managed super invested in ASX top 50 stocks will save the fund managers fee and thereby increase the domestic savings ratio is very questionable. 25% of the stocks studied had a negative total return, whereas 33% had an inferior return to market performance. The entire exercise has had me ponder several variables. Superannuation is essentially taxed at 15% on entry, 15% on income and in theory 15% on retirement (exit). Retirement benefits can be reduced by purchasing an annuity. Annuities are very inefficient and based on historical life tables. (hysterical). Normal tables (logics) simply do not apply to financial outcomes. Franking Credits were introduced by Treasurer John Howard to address double taxation of stock investment incomes and Australia’s poor record in long term saving. The concept was broadened and standardised by Treasurer Keating. Then Keating introduced the Superannuation Guarantee Levy, largely paid for by salary sacrifice of indexation pay rises. Keating then introduced the entry tax on superannuation contributions. Similar economies like Canada and NZ have similar policies. But they are not employed in most other G20 economies. No fund manager worth their salt should pay incremental tax on superannuation fund investment income. In theory franking credits attached to stock dividends should be used to offset taxation liability on other investment classes like bonds or rent streams. Imputation logics skews investment decisions away from other investment classes. It also adds many levels of complexities. For example the dividend policy of BHP’s shares listed in London or South Africa compared to those listed in Australia. Totally unrelated share investment in turn creates excessive speculation and that in itself skews returns. Imputation has exacerbated this. The entire complexities create the need for specialist investment advisers and fund managers. The entry tax on superannuation is the most hideous attack on savings. A head teacher from a high school was telling me emphatically that when he is forced to make a decision on his State Super at age 60, take the lump sum and buy a unit. Whether you gear it or not is immaterial. If you can gear it, buy two. Your children will inherit the property, under an annuity only your spouse derives any residual after your death. (His wife also works in the education system). Another couple who worked in the education system now receive an annuity and lament that is why we have no assets (the wife in that case is now on the Board of trustees at UTS – a handy little side income/hobby). In a perfect world eliminate franking credits. Cut taxation on Superannuation entry to zero. Cut taxation on investment earnings of super funds to zero. Tax superannuation benefits on retirement that exceed 75% of median incomes. Make up the shortfall to government revenues on a broadly based consumption tax. What would be the balancing number, GST goes to 13%? Well don’t stop there, cut all payroll taxes and stamp duties on investment and increase GST again. And apply GST to all purchases including on line. It all sounds much like John Hewson before the election of 1993. GST has been a dismal failure as it currently stands. The cash economy is simply flourishing. Why do mechanics insist on being paid cash? Builders still pay half their labourers in cash, and they don’t have superannuation or other normal entitlements. Your average plasterer or painter can not afford holidays most struggle just to pay the rent! I haven’t even started on family trusts! Maybe I should leave that debate to Francois Hollande and Barak Obama. I am enjoying watching it unfold. The rioting in Madrid and Athens is not enjoyable. It is terrible. What was Doug saying about the professional classes?
Believing in sanity is itself insanity.
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EYE-BALL’s Herman on – A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections.
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| Links to Previous ‘Herman’ Posts:28th Aug – - 2012 Overture – The Northern Fall (Autumn) -
17th Aug: – A Political Alternative – Australian Community Party - Aug 6th: – Shang Yang’s good governance – or is it good faith? July 21st: - Micro Economics – Thoughts and opinions on the Energy Debate!!! July 18th: - A Chronology of Farce – and of a Government who Wonders Why Their Opinion Polls are so low. July 4th: - 2012 Overture – The Northern Summer Arrives – June 16th: 2012 Overture – The Greek Elections June 2nd: Creative Destruction … May 26th: White Collar Crime – Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper … or just Federal Parliament? May 17th: The 2012 Overture Act III Apr 23rd: An update on the French Presidential elections and other Apr 21st: A Philosophical Appraisal of Social Economic Index… to Capture Wider Social Well Being. Mar 26th: The 2012 Overture – A Crappy New Year – Part III. Feb 14th: Democrazy Part XV – Clinging to Power. To see more EYE-BALL ‘Herman’ posts: |
Title: A Microcosm of Our Democracy – Auburn City Council elections. | Author: EYE-BALL’s Herman | 18th Sep 2012 | |
| Last Friday at about 11.30am the Electoral Commission of NSW declared the result of the Auburn City Council election conducted on the previous Saturday. The Auburn City Council is in Sydney’s Western Suburbs and the electoral boundary map is available here.
Auburn City Council includes the new developments of Wentworth Point, the Olympic Village areas now called Newington, the Rookwood Cemetery (or Necropolis if you prefer), Sydney’s Silverwater Remand Centre and older residential areas (once famously labelled by Roy Masters in Rugby League history as the fibros) of Lidcombe, Regents Park and Berala. Some of those fibro suburbs like Sefton, Granville or the Railway yards of Clyde are in adjacent Councils. There are approx 42,000 registered electors in Auburn Council’s 2 Wards. Wentworth Point and Newington do not have the same social demographic as the other areas of the Council areas. Your average unit on water front (Parramatta River) Wentworth Point sells for $800,000, whereas your free standing home in Berala would be cheaper. In as much Regents Park has a constituency from the sub-continent, and the other predominant migrant mixes are Chinese, Korean, and Middle Eastern, (Turks, Lebanese etc). In the suburb of Auburn is Australia’s largest mosque, the Gallipoli Mosque, which is reverentially named to reflect Australia’s failed Turkish invasion in World War I at Gallipoli. Background Considerations Prior to this election Councillor Le Lam was dis-endorsed by the Unity Party. The Unity Party ran a ticket of 5 alternative candidates lead by Rebecca Ye against Ms Lam. Ms Lam in First Ward was on a ticket of 5 prospective councillors and a running mate in Second Ward of Dennis Yu supported on his ticket by another 4 prospective Councillors It is difficult to understand how the Liberals supplied the former Mayor with only 2 of the 10 pre-existing councillors, unless he was elected under rotation and/or with the support of Independents (including Unity Party). There was also scuttlebutt that the Council had reported the General Manager of Auburn City Council to ICAC, and the Administration (General Manger-John Burgess) had reported the Council to ICAC, (according to some sources to stop the general manager from being sacked). The matters before ICAC are not easy to establish as investigations continue. Moreover relationships were dysfunctional between Administration and Mayor. Beyond this there was unrest about how multi storey buildings were being erected in John St, Lidcombe irrespective of current height restrictions. There are 3 major supermarkets in the entire locality, a Woolworths and Coles at Auburn Central and a new Woolworths at Berala. Parking is not easy at Auburn Central therefore most residents find themselves shopping at Westfield Parramatta or Centro at Bankstown. The two wards of Auburn were the most hotly contested elections of the 253 councils up for re-election this year. One council had more candidates than the 87 of Auburn but were electing more positions; therefore pro rata Auburn had the most candidates (8.7) for each councillor position to be elected. Another independent prospective Councillor, Mr Salim Mehajer was facing negligent driving charges in Burwood Court on September 10, 2012 (next business day after the poll) where that story is reported at http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/women-injured-in-ferrari-crash/story-e6frfkp9-1226246945877 The outcome of the trial is available at; The Mehajer family Company profile is available http://www.sydneygroup.com.au/ The election results: First Ward (in order of being declared)
Second Ward (in order of being declared)
The Story as related by an AEC Employee: This story began on Thursday 23rd August 2 weeks and 2 days before Election Day when Mr Dennis Yu – Councillor Candidate, brought in 3 electioneering posters to the NSW Electoral Office and claimed they had been defaced on private property. Mr Yu was accompanied by a woman and claimed to have video evidence of the act of vandalism and wanted the Returning Officer to take action. He was advised to take the matter to the Auburn Police (Flemington Local Area Command). On Monday August 27th pre polling started. There were reports that Unity and dis-Unity (Independent) candidates or their scrutineers were dragging people off the street (total strangers), to get them to vote for them. Their registered scrutineers were allowed in the polling place under electoral commission rules. Next a scrutineer of one of the Unity or dis-Unity groups committed an electoral crime by watching over an elector’s shoulder while he voted and bothered the voter to change his vote. That scrutineer was ordered from the premises and not allowed to return. At about 4.30pm on the Wednesday 29th August, an incident occurred outside the polling place reported in Sydney’s Morning Herald a week later at; http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/local-elections-turn-nasty-as-allegations-fly-20120903-25ayj.html That report by the Herald is adequate but fails to mention how Ms Rebecca Ye was walking around the outside of the polling place filming (harassing and threatening) candidates including Ms Le Lam or Mr Dennis Yu. The ‘intimdation’ was reported to the police at the time of the incident. The police did not arrive until the next morning having stated on the evening of the alleged assault that they were busy and would get there when they got there. After an arrest, Auburn police command ordered regular drive by’s with squad cars and therefore on that next day, 10 officers in 4 different patrols entered the polling place to ensure good order. The State Electoral Commission ordered a permanent private security presence for the remainder of the pre polling. The Local Rag; the ‘Auburn Review’ on Tuesday 4th of September ran an article where a police spokesperson was attempting to show the police correctness in their actions (or in this case lack thereof). In the reports the name calling amongst nominee councillors as “Criminals” I interpret to mean corrupt but spoken by people with a rather limited grasp of English. The security presence and its cost meant the Auburn City Council ratepayer’s funds were being used to protect those electors from their prospective councillors. Sadly the candidates and their workers did not know or care about how they were bringing council into disrepute. This was a pattern that continued throughout the pre poll period. While matters quietened down somewhat voters would routinely enter the polling place complaining about the electioneering outside. They would express exasperation. You don’t see anything of them until they want your vote. They often stated they did not want to vote for any of them but were scared of the $55 fine for failing to vote. One elector asked – ‘how do I get myself off the electoral role’. He was told by being imprisoned for 12 months or certified or possibly dementia would get him removed from the electoral role. Of course there are other ways, but each adds complications. We live in a country of compulsory voting. There were many other bits and pieces which are subsumed in the grand order of things. Possibly they await a day in the Court of Disputed Returns. For instance one candidate made allegations to police that the Returning Officer had made threatening calls corruptly, telling the candidate to withdraw from the election or the candidate would be killed. To the best of my knowledge police investigations continue. I have no doubt the Returning Officer is simply not capable of such an act, it is totally out of character. More importantly without corruption what could be a possible motive. The candidate may well have ulterior motive. The sad part is how innocent people get subsumed in this tawdry mess and the methods and actions of the police are also called into question. The entire episode raises far too many issues, but the loudest is “What is at stake?” Conclusion: The Council is largely ceremonial, where most functionality of Council matters resides with bureaucracy rather than elected officials. The incumbent Mayor was powerless during the alleged assault and it is difficult to fully comprehend the ancillary allegations. What do the Councillors do beside approve Development Applications and cut ribbons, turn first sods and become patrons of local groups? (This intones that brown envelopes do accompany development applications!) Why does NSW have so many tiny (and insignificant) local councils? They are at odds to economic theory on economies of scale, and leave issues such as commuter parking and public transport to monoliths like Macquarie St. (The railway station at Olympic stadium linked to Lidcombe Railway is under–utilised and another white elephant (in commission only for major sporting events or the 2 weeks of the annual RAS show). Lidcombe and Auburn railway stations are poorly serviced by trains due to express trains from Richmond, Blacktown and the Blue Mountains being express from Parramatta to Strathfield. What will fix transport issues for such an integral part of greater Sydney? The State seat of Auburn remains one of the few Labor seats after the ALP were crushed at the state poll last year. The Battler Group 5th elected official in second Ward ran on a platform of creating a third (separate) ward for Wentworth Point (and possibly Newington). Utter nonsense. A third of the Council would include all of Silverwater (industrial area) and cross over Parramatta Rd into the older parts. The residents of Wentworth Point want to go into Strathfield Council or City of Canada Bay. (Different demographic v proportion of rates, income equation). What constitutes a City? First ward formal votes were slightly over 70% with a participation factor closer to 80% (about 10% informal). Second Ward substantially better with about 77% formal and close to 84% participation. It makes you really dwell on compulsory voting and the real donkey vote, those who don’t care but simply vote to avoid a fine (thereby nullifying the vote of those who do care or believe). Auburn City Council is not alone in this degradation of common decency and respect for its constituency. At Ashfield Council they had a woman, Vittoria Raciti, standing for Council on a platform of family values, where she is the landlord of a known Haberfield brothel, and to which she denies all knowledge. Her running mate is the notorious Julie Passas (former Councillor) who was mentioned several times in State Parliament regarding her antics of intimidation. There are other reports regarding other councils in this local council election. Of the 253 locality elections contested earlier this month 24 councils were elected unopposed, mainly in country shires. The Auburn City Council election was budgeted at somewhere around $250,000. The actual cost is not yet publicly known. Where the previous election in 2008 was $270,000 the costs were micro managed to achieve this outcome. The itinerant staff were denied proper conditions and rewards. An example is despite hours worked, time sheets were manipulated to deny office assistants a meal money allowance after working a 9.5 hour day, and excess times were entered on other days to avoid penalty rates. This has the effect that in future the better staff will take any polling place position rather than work in the office on Election Day or simply not want to work at all. Despite the Act requiring an Office Manager and Returning Officer team at every returning office, many Office Managers quit early on and were not replaced. No extra allowance was made for other staff to cover in the process. In the case of Glenn Innes Shire, when the Returning Officer walked off the job on election eve there was no natural replacement available and another had to be sourced from out of the area. This is partly a function of the Electoral Commission of NSW as agent conducting the election of Councillors on behalf of Council. The elements of democracy are now monetised. There is no transparency. When financial reports of the payee (council) and agent (Electoral Commission) are available would it be possible to reconcile the two? In the case of Auburn returning Office being located at the old Lidcombe RSL building that was because Council owned the building. Many voters asked why was pre poll now located at Lidcombe rather than traditional Auburn Central? Simple answer – cost and perceived benefits of dedicated parking were not apparent as electioneering signs covered all disabled parking spots and there was no obvious authority to regulate parking. Today as the world tries to come to terms with the sixth pillar of Islam, Jihad, most of us are simply confused by our own local news. Multi-culturalism is only one tiny part. Moralising is easy. Believing in Sanity is itself Insanity.
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The EYE-BALL Opinion.
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EYE-BALL Authors
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The EYE-BALL Opinion
- EYE-BALL Opinion – Just Stunningly Beautiful – Jackie Evancho – With Talent like this there is amazement … enjoy -
- EYE-BALL Opinion – Budget 2013-14 – Wayne Swan about to deliver an ALP death notice –
- EYE-BALL Opinion – EYE-BALL MediaZone Growl No: 2 – The SMH’s – Mark Kenny … Chief Political Correspondent
- EYE-BALL Opinion – EYE-BALL MediaZone Growl No: 1 – The Australian’s – Adam Creighton
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Snoop-Poop
- EYE-BALL’s “SNOOP POOP” on – NRL 2013: – NRL 2013: Round 7 – Rabbitohs [20] defeat Manly [12] -
- EYE-BALL’s “SNOOP POOP” on – NRL 2013: Week 1 – Game 2 – SeaEagles [22] defeat Broncos [14] -
- EYE-BALL’s “SNOOP POOP” on – NRL 2013: Week 1 – Game 1 – Rabbitohs [28] defeat Roosters [10] -
- EYE-BALL’s “SNOOP POOP” on – Women journalist writing about Men’s Sport – - they had better be good -
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EYE-BALL Guru
- EYE-BALL’s Guru on – The Wayne Swan 2013-14 Federal Budget – A Special EYE-BALL Guru Report Part 1 -
- EYE-BALL’s Guru on – When is Government a Business and – when is Government a Government -
- EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – The Evidence of Incompetence – a Ponzi expert in the making.
- EYE-BALL’s Guru on – Wayne Swan’s “Treasury Mistakes” – A Follow-Up -
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EYE-BALL JokeZone
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EYE-BALL MovieZone
- EYE-BALL MovieZone – Favourites Review: TV Series – ELEMENTARY -
- EYE-BALL MovieZone – Favourites Review: Oliver Stones:- “The Untold History of the United States”
- EYE-BALL MovieZone – Favourites Review: “Garrow’s Law” (2009) TV Show Seasons 1-2 …
- EYE-BALL MovieZone – Favourites Review: “Last Man Standing” (2012) TV Show Season 1 …
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F.C.A.T.A. Web Master
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Harry HOUND-DOG
- EYE-BALL’s Harry’s Growl on – Election 2013 – Growl No: 38 – Swan’s Rubbery Figures – A “Waste of Space” Oddity … by Parody …
- EYE-BALL’s Harry’s Growl on – Election 2013 – Growl No: 40 – The YouTube Clip that keeps on Giving – Labor’s [Gillard's] Lies and Awkward Moments -
- EYE-BALL’s Harry’s Growl on – Election 2013 – Growl No: 39 – ZNet hosts Conroy and Turnbul – in a debate on Communications -
- EYE-BALL’s Harry’s Growl on – Election 2013 – Growl No: 38 – Dribble from a Dribbler – Gillard becoming more redundant every day -
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